January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event
WSW for the Cape and Boston were just cut from 9-16" down to 6-12" for the cape and now 4-8" for Boston with a preference for the lower. We are done here on and off flurries tomorrow.
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event
SoulSingMG wrote:CAPE C(G)OD ...congrats eastern LI, too!
Wow, I'll take that 2 to 3 inches in the HV this map says.Kind of juicy ,though, this map. NWS no way agrees for my area.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event
Ukie is furthest west with the precip shield of all the models 3 to 4 inches for the city 6 + eastern half of Long Island
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event
docstox12 wrote:SoulSingMG wrote:CAPE C(G)OD ...congrats eastern LI, too!
Wow, I'll take that 2 to 3 inches in the HV this map says.Kind of juicy ,though, this map. NWS no way agrees for my area.
Doc the Boston NWS shifted all the totals on this page about 75 miles east. Cape is now 6-12" and Metro Boston 6". I don't buy the west trends today.
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event
Can we talk about nj like jersey shore people only talk about nyc and Long Island. There are other places
track17- Posts : 454
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event
track17 wrote:Can we talk about nj like jersey shore people only talk about nyc and Long Island. There are other places
Where are you track? Maybe put your location in your profile so when you have a question we know how to answer. Most of the snow events have been east so there hasn't been much of a need to discuss what's going on in most of NJ. We do have members down the shore who chime in when the storms come up the coast.
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Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event
12z UKMET is 2-4" for NYC, more out on Long Island. N&W of NYC there is not much.
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event
My updtaed snow map after reviewing all the 6 z and most of the 12z Data
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event
I am in toms river but this is coming up the coast.
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event
Scott, can you grab the 12z Euro total QPF, doesnt look bad for us!
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event
aiannone wrote:Scott, can you grab the 12z Euro total QPF, doesnt look bad for us!
Pretty similar to prev run
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event
sroc4 wrote:aiannone wrote:Scott, can you grab the 12z Euro total QPF, doesnt look bad for us!
Pretty similar to prev run
That's a significant event for us at ratios of 15:1 or even 20:1
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rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event
EURO snow map. Looks like UKIE and Hi Res NAM.
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event
Frank_Wx wrote:EURO snow map. Looks like UKIE and Hi Res NAM.
And that's at 10:1 so likely those 5" marks are more like 7-8"
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event
Aside from observations, i'm rather skeptic of how far northwest that precipitation shield can get AND can produce. 1. You do have the best upward motion sitting from eastern VA into the lower Delmarva and towards the coast of SNJ, with the "jackpot" offshore (verbatim the 12z NAM). That would indicate sinking air (700mb convergence zone) to occur where there is rising air. 2. As a strong arctic high (indicated by lower of thickness levels) pushes towards the south and east, you have a stiff wind coming out of the NW. 3. Dewpoints shown during the "peak" of this storm (around 1pm tomorrow) are dry. Whether or not the atmosphere can saturate in time for when the best potential arrives is to be determined. If we can get the mid and lower levels to saturate in time, we have a very favorable snow growth region that indicates high ratios for this event. Again, we'll have to see what happens because this will definitely be a nowcasting case. Those closer to the coast, the lower delmarva, SNJ, should benefit best from this system. This is going to be a very tight gradient. Think I-95 is your separating dictating zone. Still think north and west can maybe benefit, but i think subsidence could be an issue. We'll see!
Armando Salvadore- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event
Armando Salvadore wrote:Aside from observations, i'm rather skeptic of how far northwest that precipitation shield can get AND can produce. 1. You do have the best upward motion sitting from eastern VA into the lower Delmarva and towards the coast of SNJ, with the "jackpot" offshore (verbatim the 12z NAM). That would indicate sinking air (700mb convergence zone) to occur where there is rising air. 2. As a strong arctic high (indicated by lower of thickness levels) pushes towards the south and east, you have a stiff wind coming out of the NW. 3. Dewpoints shown during the "peak" of this storm (around 1pm tomorrow) are dry. Whether or not the atmosphere can saturate in time for when the best potential arrives is to be determined. If we can get the mid and lower levels to saturate in time, we have a very favorable snow growth region that indicates high ratios for this event. Again, we'll have to see what happens because this will definitely be a nowcasting case. Those closer to the coast, the lower delmarva, SNJ, should benefit best from this system. This is going to be a very tight gradient. Think I-95 is your separating dictating zone. Still think north and west can maybe benefit, but i think subsidence could be an issue. We'll see!
subsidence One of the most hated words in a snow weenies vocabulary. Cant say I disagree with this analysis
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event
Armando Salvadore wrote:Aside from observations, i'm rather skeptic of how far northwest that precipitation shield can get AND can produce. 1. You do have the best upward motion sitting from eastern VA into the lower Delmarva and towards the coast of SNJ, with the "jackpot" offshore (verbatim the 12z NAM). That would indicate sinking air (700mb convergence zone) to occur where there is rising air. 2. As a strong arctic high (indicated by lower of thickness levels) pushes towards the south and east, you have a stiff wind coming out of the NW. 3. Dewpoints shown during the "peak" of this storm (around 1pm tomorrow) are dry. Whether or not the atmosphere can saturate in time for when the best potential arrives is to be determined. If we can get the mid and lower levels to saturate in time, we have a very favorable snow growth region that indicates high ratios for this event. Again, we'll have to see what happens because this will definitely be a nowcasting case. Those closer to the coast, the lower delmarva, SNJ, should benefit best from this system. This is going to be a very tight gradient. Think I-95 is your separating dictating zone. Still think north and west can maybe benefit, but i think subsidence could be an issue. We'll see!
Spot on. Dry air and poor VV's.
Womp.
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event
First and final call snow map
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event
I like it Frank. Clean and clear
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event
Good map frank what time do u think the snow will start and end
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event
18z NAM coming in hot. Looks really good.
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Re: January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event
frank 638 wrote:Good map frank what time do u think the snow will start and end
7-9am start
6-8pm end
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