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January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

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Post by Guest Fri Jan 06, 2017 11:40 am

C-2" Book it.

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Post by Guest Fri Jan 06, 2017 11:42 am

WSW for the Cape and Boston were just cut from 9-16" down to 6-12" for the cape and now 4-8" for Boston with a preference for the lower. We are done here on and off flurries tomorrow.

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Post by docstox12 Fri Jan 06, 2017 11:51 am

SoulSingMG wrote:CAPE C(G)OD ...congrats eastern LI, too!

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 21 Img_1813

Wow, I'll take that 2 to 3 inches in the HV this map says.Kind of juicy ,though, this map. NWS no way agrees for my area.
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Post by algae888 Fri Jan 06, 2017 12:09 pm

Ukie is furthest west with the precip shield of all the models 3 to 4 inches for the city 6 + eastern half of Long Island
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Post by Guest Fri Jan 06, 2017 12:22 pm

docstox12 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:CAPE C(G)OD ...congrats eastern LI, too!

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 21 Img_1813

Wow, I'll take that 2 to 3 inches in the HV this map says.Kind of juicy ,though, this map. NWS no way agrees for my area.

Doc the Boston NWS shifted all the totals on this page about 75 miles east. Cape is now 6-12" and Metro Boston 6". I don't buy the west trends today.

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Post by aiannone Fri Jan 06, 2017 12:25 pm

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 21 Stormt11

10:30am Update

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Post by track17 Fri Jan 06, 2017 12:29 pm

Can we talk about nj like jersey shore people only talk about nyc and Long Island. There are other places

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Post by Dunnzoo Fri Jan 06, 2017 12:34 pm

track17 wrote:Can we talk about nj like jersey shore people only talk about nyc and Long Island. There are other places

Where are you track? Maybe put your location in your profile so when you have a question we know how to answer. Most of the snow events have been east so there hasn't been much of a need to discuss what's going on in most of NJ. We do have members down the shore who chime in when the storms come up the coast.

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 06, 2017 12:35 pm

12z UKMET is 2-4" for NYC, more out on Long Island. N&W of NYC there is not much.

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Post by sroc4 Fri Jan 06, 2017 12:47 pm

My updtaed snow map after reviewing all the 6 z and most of the 12z Data


January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 21 Second10

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
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Post by track17 Fri Jan 06, 2017 12:53 pm

I am in toms river but this is coming up the coast.

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Post by aiannone Fri Jan 06, 2017 12:57 pm

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 21 Ecmwf_10

so close!

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Post by aiannone Fri Jan 06, 2017 12:59 pm

Scott, can you grab the 12z Euro total QPF, doesnt look bad for us!

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Post by sroc4 Fri Jan 06, 2017 1:04 pm

aiannone wrote:Scott, can you grab the 12z Euro total QPF, doesnt look bad for us!

Pretty similar to prev run

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 21 Ecmwf_45

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
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Post by aiannone Fri Jan 06, 2017 1:06 pm

sroc4 wrote:
aiannone wrote:Scott, can you grab the 12z Euro total QPF, doesnt look bad for us!

Pretty similar to prev run

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 21 Ecmwf_45

That's a significant event for us at ratios of 15:1 or even 20:1

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 06, 2017 1:09 pm

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 21 Screen40

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 06, 2017 1:16 pm

EURO snow map. Looks like UKIE and Hi Res NAM.

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 21 586fdc01623da_ecmwf_snow_24_nyc_8JAN612ZSNOW.thumb.png.5fecdb1b494cc4e8fe10f958e378fa23

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Post by aiannone Fri Jan 06, 2017 1:17 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:EURO snow map. Looks like UKIE and Hi Res NAM.

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 21 586fdc01623da_ecmwf_snow_24_nyc_8JAN612ZSNOW.thumb.png.5fecdb1b494cc4e8fe10f958e378fa23

And that's at 10:1 so likely those 5" marks are more like 7-8"

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Post by Armando Salvadore Fri Jan 06, 2017 2:25 pm

Aside from observations, i'm rather skeptic of how far northwest that precipitation shield can get AND can produce. 1. You do have the best upward motion sitting from eastern VA into the lower Delmarva and towards the coast of SNJ, with the "jackpot" offshore (verbatim the 12z NAM). That would indicate sinking air (700mb convergence zone) to occur where there is rising air. 2. As a strong arctic high (indicated by lower of thickness levels) pushes towards the south and east, you have a stiff wind coming out of the NW. 3. Dewpoints shown during the "peak" of this storm (around 1pm tomorrow) are dry. Whether or not the atmosphere can saturate in time for when the best potential arrives is to be determined. If we can get the mid and lower levels to saturate in time, we have a very favorable snow growth region that indicates high ratios for this event. Again, we'll have to see what happens because this will definitely be a nowcasting case. Those closer to the coast, the lower delmarva, SNJ, should benefit best from this system. This is going to be a very tight gradient. Think I-95 is your separating dictating zone. Still think north and west can maybe benefit, but i think subsidence could be an issue. We'll see!
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Post by sroc4 Fri Jan 06, 2017 2:31 pm

Armando Salvadore wrote:Aside from observations, i'm rather skeptic of how far northwest that precipitation shield can get AND can produce. 1. You do have the best upward motion sitting from eastern VA into the lower Delmarva and towards the coast of SNJ, with the "jackpot" offshore (verbatim the 12z NAM). That would indicate sinking air (700mb convergence zone) to occur where there is rising air. 2. As a strong arctic high (indicated by lower of thickness levels) pushes towards the south and east, you have a stiff wind coming out of the NW. 3. Dewpoints shown during the "peak" of this storm (around 1pm tomorrow) are dry. Whether or not the atmosphere can saturate in time for when the best potential arrives is to be determined. If we can get the mid and lower levels to saturate in time, we have a very favorable snow growth region that indicates high ratios for this event. Again, we'll have to see what happens because this will definitely be a nowcasting case. Those closer to the coast, the lower delmarva, SNJ, should benefit best from this system. This is going to be a very tight gradient. Think I-95 is your separating dictating zone. Still think north and west can maybe benefit, but i think subsidence could be an issue. We'll see!

subsidence One of the most hated words in a snow weenies vocabulary.  Cant say I disagree with this analysis

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 06, 2017 2:34 pm

Armando Salvadore wrote:Aside from observations, i'm rather skeptic of how far northwest that precipitation shield can get AND can produce. 1. You do have the best upward motion sitting from eastern VA into the lower Delmarva and towards the coast of SNJ, with the "jackpot" offshore (verbatim the 12z NAM). That would indicate sinking air (700mb convergence zone) to occur where there is rising air. 2. As a strong arctic high (indicated by lower of thickness levels) pushes towards the south and east, you have a stiff wind coming out of the NW. 3. Dewpoints shown during the "peak" of this storm (around 1pm tomorrow) are dry. Whether or not the atmosphere can saturate in time for when the best potential arrives is to be determined. If we can get the mid and lower levels to saturate in time, we have a very favorable snow growth region that indicates high ratios for this event. Again, we'll have to see what happens because this will definitely be a nowcasting case. Those closer to the coast, the lower delmarva, SNJ, should benefit best from this system. This is going to be a very tight gradient. Think I-95 is your separating dictating zone. Still think north and west can maybe benefit, but i think subsidence could be an issue. We'll see!

Spot on. Dry air and poor VV's.

Womp.

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Post by aiannone Fri Jan 06, 2017 2:49 pm

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 21 Captur11

15z SREF for Islip

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 06, 2017 2:51 pm

First and final call snow map

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 21 Snow_map

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Post by sroc4 Fri Jan 06, 2017 2:54 pm

I like it Frank. Clean and clear

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Post by frank 638 Fri Jan 06, 2017 2:57 pm

Good map frank what time do u think the snow will start and end

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 06, 2017 2:59 pm

18z NAM coming in hot. Looks really good.

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 21 586ff6d563eaa

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 21 586ff716ae7b3

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 06, 2017 3:00 pm

frank 638 wrote:Good map frank what time do u think the snow will start and end

7-9am start
6-8pm end

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