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January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

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Post by aiannone Fri Jan 06, 2017 3:01 pm

18z NAM a good jog west and a healthy precip field when compared to 12z
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 06, 2017 3:01 pm

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 22 586ff78cad718

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Post by frank 638 Fri Jan 06, 2017 3:02 pm

Got it thanks frank let's hope for a surprise

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 06, 2017 3:02 pm

I will issue an updated snow map early tomorrow morning if I feel the need to. I will say to if you live along the Jersey Shore and LI, prepare for a sizable event. At least 3 inches with potential for 8"

That is a good snowstorm for you guys.

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Post by aiannone Fri Jan 06, 2017 3:03 pm

This is going to prompt Winter Storm Warnings for Central and Eastern LI, all of SECT, RI, EMA
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Post by aiannone Fri Jan 06, 2017 3:04 pm

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 22 Nam_ms14

Wow cape!
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Post by Snow88 Fri Jan 06, 2017 3:09 pm

Few inches on the Nam for NYC

EPS has 3 inches for NYC
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Post by aiannone Fri Jan 06, 2017 3:10 pm

Scott time for you and I to prep the snowblowers. I think we will need em.
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Post by aiannone Fri Jan 06, 2017 3:11 pm

Anyone have total QPF?
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Post by Snow88 Fri Jan 06, 2017 3:11 pm

CIPS analog is 1.23.14

A lot of snow on that date for the coast
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Post by aiannone Fri Jan 06, 2017 3:22 pm

.4" for central LI and .5" for eastern LI at hour 30, still snowing until hour 39..........
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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 06, 2017 3:24 pm

NAM looks overdone IMHO. The SREFS even trended further offshore with the QPF, so I think the NAM may be suffering from its bias here. Just my opinion, though.

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Post by aiannone Fri Jan 06, 2017 3:24 pm

...SIGNIFICANT SNOW LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT SATURDAY...

CTZ008-012-NYZ079-081-070500-
/O.UPG.KOKX.WS.A.0001.170107T1200Z-170108T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.W.0001.170107T1200Z-170108T0600Z/
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
322 PM EST FRI JAN 6 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST
SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM
EST SUNDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES.

* TIMING...DEVELOPING SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO SNOW COVERED ROADS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...1/2SM OR LESS EXPECTED.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 20S.
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Post by aiannone Fri Jan 06, 2017 3:25 pm


...SIGNIFICANT SNOW LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT SATURDAY...

CTZ007-010-011-NYZ078-080-070500-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0003.170107T1200Z-170108T0600Z/
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
322 PM EST FRI JAN 6 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM
EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM
EST SUNDAY.

* LOCATIONS...WESTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY IN NEW YORK AND MIDDLESEX
AND SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN COUNTIES IN CONNECTICUT.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES.

* TIMING...DEVELOPING SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO SNOW COVERED ROADS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

* WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 20S.

* VISIBILITIES...1 MILE OR LESS POSSIBLE.
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Post by aiannone Fri Jan 06, 2017 3:28 pm

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 22 15844710
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Post by aiannone Fri Jan 06, 2017 3:29 pm

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 22 15874910

And this is 10:1!
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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Jan 06, 2017 3:34 pm

@aiannone wrote:January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 22 15874910

And this is 10:1!

if this verifies even with 10:1 ratios I would be at 6 inches...
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Post by aiannone Fri Jan 06, 2017 3:34 pm

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 22 15894910

With ratios
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Post by Guest Fri Jan 06, 2017 3:36 pm

So Alex and Scott. As fellow long Islanders I am not in the WWA for 3-6". It starts 2 miles east of me. With the scheduled .4 qpf. over my house with good ratios 3-6" should be reasonable if the qpf forecast verifies. You guys at about .6 qpf could be looking at 6-9 even though you are only forecast for 4-6"

Lets hope for a last minute shift west because rb is still making me nervous.

Thoughts?

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Post by SoulSingMG Fri Jan 06, 2017 3:36 pm

@aiannone wrote:January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 22 15894910

With ratios

So we're back to a possible warning-level snowfall here in NYC proper? Lol...this STORM!
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Post by aiannone Fri Jan 06, 2017 3:38 pm

syosnow94 wrote:So Alex and Scott.  As fellow long Islanders I am not in the WWA for 3-6".  It starts 2 miles east of me.  With the scheduled .4 qpf. over my house with good ratios 3-6" should be reasonable if the qpf forecast verifies.  You guys at about .6 qpf could be looking at 6-9 even though you are only forecast for 4-6"  

Lets hope for a last minute shift west because rb is still making me nervous.

Thoughts?

I am really surprised there isnt an advisory for at least 2-4" for you. I also think that if the trend holds, they will up amounts overnight. Sit back and see, but we have ourselves an event which a couple days ago looked like just flurries!
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Post by SoulSingMG Fri Jan 06, 2017 3:45 pm

They'll (Upton) issue a WWA late tonight/early tomorrow for NYC. Nothing more. Incidentally, VA Beach/Hampton Roads are now under Blizzard Warnings. A little dramatic IMHO...
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Post by oldtimer Fri Jan 06, 2017 3:48 pm

Thanks Alex Great info and stuff A nice 6" would be great

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 06, 2017 3:49 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:
@aiannone wrote:January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 22 15894910

With ratios

So we're back to a possible warning-level snowfall here in NYC proper? Lol...this STORM!

this gives me a bit above 6 inches, ill b happy with that! from this morning looked like almost nothing, but ray could b right with it being overdone nam.
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Post by sroc4 Fri Jan 06, 2017 3:49 pm

syosnow94 wrote:So Alex and Scott.  As fellow long Islanders I am not in the WWA for 3-6".  It starts 2 miles east of me.  With the scheduled .4 qpf. over my house with good ratios 3-6" should be reasonable if the qpf forecast verifies.  You guys at about .6 qpf could be looking at 6-9 even though you are only forecast for 4-6"  

Lets hope for a last minute shift west because rb is still making me nervous.

Thoughts?

For me personally I agree with rb's hesitation to buy into tyhe NAM lock stock and Barrel. I think, and this is a line from a buddy O mine who Im having texts back and forth with right now, but is a lurker on here so should see this, if we all had a dollar every time someone said west, looks better wed all be rich with just the last 48hrs.

Its been my experince with the cold that is in place and with the even colder sweeping in behind the system the western edge tends to move through faster than is forecast. And the subsidence zone that occurs on the NW flank is going to be very sharp so we shall see. I am still sticking with my updated forecast, but I do have a possible extra 1-2 to 1-3 inches on top of these totals giving a max potential for my map of 5-11" in far eastern zones to 3-8" in the center, and 2-5" in the western most LI and NYC metro area. I "think this should cover it.

Jim I think for the reasons mentioned your are located far enough west where you may be on the fringe of the goods so confidence is low on calling for a WAA in this area. If observations come to fruition late tonight it will be hoisted.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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