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January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

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Post by sroc4 Fri Jan 06, 2017 5:05 pm

JIM Ill believe it if the 00z's hold strong

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 06, 2017 5:06 pm

@Vinnydula wrote:What time would be start time.? I have to drive in to the city tomorrow around noon?

5-7am

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 06, 2017 5:07 pm

If 15 to 1 I'd b more than 1 or 2 inches added to the RGEM totals depending on how much. Like I'm under 5 to 6 inch area so wouldn't that b 7.5 to 9?
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 06, 2017 5:12 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Look at how much further N&W the VV are on the 18z compared to the 12z:  Youve got -30 to -40 VV reaching into the coast.  Jeeze these models have changed their mood more than a 16yr old high school girl.  Madonne!!

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 24 Nam_w714
January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 24 Nam_w715
what do these maps mean exactly I see the numbers increased pretty well inland. It's vertical velocity right? But what does it mean for the storm.
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Post by aiannone Fri Jan 06, 2017 5:12 pm

Bernie saying Nassau and Suffolk a solid 3-6" storm with no surprise if people report 7-8" there in localized spots.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 06, 2017 5:14 pm

@aiannone wrote:Bernie saying Nassau and Suffolk a solid 3-6" storm with no surprise if people report 7-8" there in localized spots.

Yea that's basically what my snow map says. I don't think I'll be changing it. In my opinion, it takes into consideration my concerns while also accounting for over performance. Its a blend of the hi Res and global models basically

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Post by GreyBeard Fri Jan 06, 2017 5:15 pm

It seems like this storm is particularly difficult to nail down. You guys have been deciphering models and studying it for over a week now. One model run it's good, the next it's bad. I've got a headache just trying to follow along. I appreciate the time and effort you all put into it.

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 06, 2017 5:17 pm

Agree GreyBeard, that's why I've been trying to use them less. My snow map will stay final. If it busts low so be it. I have my reasons.

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Post by sroc4 Fri Jan 06, 2017 5:20 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:Look at how much further N&W the VV are on the 18z compared to the 12z:  Youve got -30 to -40 VV reaching into the coast.  Jeeze these models have changed their mood more than a 16yr old high school girl.  Madonne!!

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 24 Nam_w714
January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 24 Nam_w715
what do these maps mean exactly I see the numbers increased pretty well inland. It's vertical velocity right? But what does it mean for the storm.

Jman simply stated vertical velocity is one way to measure how rapidly air rises due to things like pressure falls, or movement of air due to baroclinic zones, frontogenesis etc.  Simply stated the faster the rise the harder the precip rates. On this map the more negative the number the stronger the upward vertical motion, the more positive the more downward the vertical motion, or subsidence you get.  So if you live anywhere where the blue is on this image you likely will not be snowing.  This is also a good map to look at to find the best totals during over running events where frontogenesis and baroclinically driven upward motion enhancements can occur.

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by SoulSingMG Fri Jan 06, 2017 5:22 pm

** I approve this message **

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 24 Img_1814
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 06, 2017 5:25 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:Look at how much further N&W the VV are on the 18z compared to the 12z:  Youve got -30 to -40 VV reaching into the coast.  Jeeze these models have changed their mood more than a 16yr old high school girl.  Madonne!!

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 24 Nam_w714
January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 24 Nam_w715
what do these maps mean exactly I see the numbers increased pretty well inland. It's vertical velocity right? But what does it mean for the storm.

Jman simply stated vertical velocity is one way to measure how rapidly air rises due to things like pressure falls, or movement of air due to baroclinic zones, frontogenesis etc.  Simply stated the faster the rise the harder the precip rates. On this map the more negative the number the stronger the upward vertical motion, the more positive the more downward the vertical motion, or subsidence you get.  So if you live anywhere where the blue is on this image you likely will not be snowing.  This is also a good map to look at to find the best totals during over running events where frontogenesis and baroclinically driven upward motion enhancements can occur.
thanks glad I'm nowhere near blue.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 06, 2017 5:27 pm

They need to issue more watches and advisories

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 24 IMG_20170106_172608.jpg.bd489385705246a1ef4e4c81c685dd97

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 06, 2017 5:34 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:They need to issue more watches and advisories

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 24 IMG_20170106_172608.jpg.bd489385705246a1ef4e4c81c685dd97

lol, ive actually seen longer lists. what i was always curios if one area has more than one advisory warning etc. which do they choose to display and how do they choose?
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Post by algae888 Fri Jan 06, 2017 5:38 pm

Was very busy at work today and just getting caught up on the 18z runs. Right now my head is spinning. Two things Peak my interest 1 the rgem and the 2 eps 3" mean for nyc. Also the UKie has never wavered through this event. So I'm hopeful but still cautious and don't know what to make of this. Hopefully we'll all have a nice surprise tomorrow
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Post by Guest Fri Jan 06, 2017 5:45 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:If 15 to 1 I'd b more than 1 or 2 inches added to the RGEM totals depending on how much. Like I'm under 5 to 6 inch area so wouldn't that b 7.5 to 9?

JMan my weenie buddy. right now 3-6" for me is a stretch and I'm 25+ miles east of NYC. RGEM is good inside 24 hours, but 6-9" NW of NYC.........I don't know about that. I hope so though.

Anyone look at the HRRR? I thought that it is usually good inside of 24

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 06, 2017 5:46 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Agree GreyBeard, that's why I've been trying to use them less. My snow map will stay final. If it busts low so be it. I have my reasons.

As long as you can support your argument with valid points, that's all that matters. If you're right, you're right. If not, learn from it. It's a win-win. Some of the public might be mad, but nobody's perfect. Great point of view, Frank!!

Bastardi actually had a FABULOUS post yesterday about something similar; I'll see if I can find it.

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Post by aiannone Fri Jan 06, 2017 5:47 pm

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 24 15940810

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Post by Guest Fri Jan 06, 2017 5:48 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:They need to issue more watches and advisories

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 24 IMG_20170106_172608.jpg.bd489385705246a1ef4e4c81c685dd97

That's what I was trying to say earlier responding to Armando's post. If you draw a straight line from the advisories in east/central Virginia through the western advisories in Mass., it should lead to advisories west of NYC to westchester rockland border. No?

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Post by aiannone Fri Jan 06, 2017 5:51 pm

Lee just called it a Suffolk County special. It's been a while since I heard that. I shed a tear
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 06, 2017 5:52 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:If 15 to 1 I'd b more than 1 or 2 inches added to the RGEM totals depending on how much. Like I'm under 5 to 6 inch area so wouldn't that b 7.5 to 9?

JMan my weenie buddy.  right now 3-6" for me is a stretch and I'm 25+ miles east of NYC.  RGEM is good inside 24 hours, but 6-9" NW of NYC.........I don't know about that.  I hope so though.

Anyone look at the HRRR?  I thought that it is usually good inside of 24

Yes, it looks good. To me it all depends on the type of precip rates that get into our area. As long as the air is saturated and the dry air doesn't win out, people even further north and west could get into the action.

@rb924119 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Agree GreyBeard, that's why I've been trying to use them less. My snow map will stay final. If it busts low so be it. I have my reasons.

As long as you can support your argument with valid points, that's all that matters. If you're right, you're right. If not, learn from it. It's a win-win. Some of the public might be mad, but nobody's perfect. Great point of view, Frank!!

Bastardi actually had a FABULOUS post yesterday about something similar; I'll see if I can find it.

He ALWAYS sticks to his guns. You can learn a lot from that man.

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Post by aiannone Fri Jan 06, 2017 5:55 pm

What time does 21z SREF come out?
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Post by frank 638 Fri Jan 06, 2017 5:56 pm

almost every weather station from nick to lonnie to lee has same snow map they are going for 4 to 8 in suffolk county to coastal nj and coastal connecticut .then 2 to 4 inches for nyc nassau county and connecticut

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Post by aiannone Fri Jan 06, 2017 5:57 pm

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 24 15826210

New RPM. Has been east and suddenly has now shifted west.
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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 06, 2017 5:58 pm

Here, Frank:

http://www.weatherbell.com/premium/joe-bastardi/is-this-a-carpet-storm/

Bernie Rayno also had a great line in his video this morning. It was something to the tune of how professional forecasters are scared and essentially scrutinized for straying from guidance with something they believe even if they have no support at the time, and how it's killing the industry. So true.


Last edited by rb924119 on Fri Jan 06, 2017 6:01 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 06, 2017 5:58 pm

@aiannone wrote:January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 24 15940810

I approve this message
I went to high school with this guy, not gonna say anything about him in high school for fear of expulsion but he is a very good meterologist.
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