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January 7, 2017 Storm Observations

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January 7, 2017 Storm Observations  Empty January 7, 2017 Storm Observations

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:04 pm

Good Evening -

Please use this thread for observations and further discussion. Here's what I'm seeing...

300mb jet streak on the 18z RGEM shows incredible structure and position. A sharper trough which should try to lure the surface low toward the coast.

January 7, 2017 Storm Observations  300mb_geopotential_height_winds_CONUS_hr024.png.c16624ee79fa7931cd1c7698838ac3e3

Water vapor imagery shows higher cloud tops filling in on the NW side. This suggests the expansive precip field models are showing is real.

January 7, 2017 Storm Observations  587039fa3182d_SAT_EUS_WVENH_ANI(23).gif.86669170b8206eaf00d265a7537c3e98

Current observations are already developing a low pressure system in the Gulf.

January 7, 2017 Storm Observations  Clipboard01.jpg.1b7d4438ecff2bf73fd8f795bae5a8fd

Radar looks really good. All that convection makes me believe the short range trends of N&W are legitimate.

January 7, 2017 Storm Observations  Southeast_loop.gif.015c87438d4092c7f4b673aea52fe592

In short, almost all guidance late this afternoon shifted the heavier snow bands further inland. All these changes we're seeing aloft in the short run COULD have big implications on snow totals. So, with that said:

January 7, 2017 Storm Observations  Snow_map

I don't have time to create a new snow map. But I can say the above has a high chance of busting low. I will stick with these totals, but my gut is now telling me all of LI will see 4-8 inches, with parts of eastern LI approaching 10 inches. That 4 to 8 inch swath extends into Jersey Shore and southern NJ. For NYC, I think 3 to 6 inches is now likely. This includes areas just north and ALL of eastern NJ besides the immediate coast. Western NJ will be where the cut offs become noticeable. I'll keep them in a 1 to 3 inch zone with potential up to 4 inches. This area of 1 to 3 includes eastern PA and those well N&W of NYC.

At the time I made my snow map I wasn't comfortable pulling the trigger on higher amounts. But current observations and short term trends have me thinking differentely. I don't think I've ever cheered myself to bust low. If I do, the observations outlined above will be the reason why.

Happy Tracking.

Ciao!

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:06 pm

Start time remains 5-7am. End time between 5-7pm.

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:12 pm

NEW SREFS have .50" right near NYC. That's over 6 inched with ratios.

January 7, 2017 Storm Observations  IMG_7436.GIF.2ddef9c9eaa25bde1e41ee41bb30ccae

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Post by sroc4 Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:16 pm

I'm headed out tonight to celebrate a buddies 40th B Day so I won't be able to post much if at all. If I do post later and it doesn't make much sense this is why. So before I leave you all for the night I will leave you with these thoughts on the latest trends...

January 7, 2017 Storm Observations  Be7ffe04820ca0c394172419b5a6497e698cb1fbf8b137ab45b4cf1a97c73f44

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by SoulSingMG Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:18 pm

Wow.

January 7, 2017 Storm Observations  Img_1815
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Post by 2004blackwrx Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:18 pm

Frank i stink at reading you above map. Is 0.5 the dark blue or the dark green

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:25 pm

@2004blackwrx wrote:Frank i stink at reading you above map. Is 0.5 the dark blue or the dark green

Blue

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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:28 pm

Frank...how was it working from home today?? Does the nam come out soon? ps loved the chat room last night easy to follow everyone!!
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:30 pm

It was distracting for obvious reasons. NAM comes out in 15 minutes about. Yes, chat was super fun.

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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:33 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:It was distracting for obvious reasons. NAM comes out in 15 minutes about. Yes, chat was super fun.

hopefully you got some things done!! at least you were in the comfort of your own home and did not have to commute...ps.my niece is supposed to fly in to newark tom at 4 from portland...its prob not going to be a good day to travel...
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:36 pm

HRRR keeps shifting NW too

January 7, 2017 Storm Observations  Fb_img11

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Post by 2004blackwrx Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:39 pm

Frank the areas of dark green are 0.25 liqiuid or 2 to 3 inches of snow with ratios.

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:39 pm

GEM-LAM, an accurate model at this range, just broke the Internet. Prepare for a snowy day tomorrow

January 7, 2017 Storm Observations  IMG_7439.GIF.9c1a9f27880049a20c1adb389a903780

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:41 pm

@2004blackwrx wrote:Frank the areas of dark green are 0.25 liqiuid or 2 to 3 inches of snow with ratios.

.25 with ratios is 3-5 inches of snow. More lime 4 to 5

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:44 pm

NAM coming in now. Already looks stronger

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Post by aiannone Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:46 pm

January 7, 2017 Storm Observations  Captur12

Latest 21z SREF mean for Islip nearly 9" now. Up from 6.8 from 15z run.
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Post by Dunnzoo Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:48 pm

Sorry, I can't be sucked in again..... I have to work tomorrow, so I'll bring my boots just in case I get more then an inch....

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:48 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:Sorry, I can't be sucked in again..... I have to work tomorrow, so I'll bring my boots just in case I get more then an inch....

You're getting at least 3 inches of snow tomorrow

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Post by aiannone Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:49 pm

NAM already really juicy out to 15 down on the delmarva. Blues down there
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Post by aiannone Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:50 pm

And a tad further west with the precip shield
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:50 pm

Here she comes

January 7, 2017 Storm Observations  5870491c044ae

January 7, 2017 Storm Observations  5870496602269

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Post by aiannone Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:52 pm

wow this precip shield is west of 18z and I would have taken that run in a heartbeat
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:53 pm

January 7, 2017 Storm Observations  587049a582142


January 7, 2017 Storm Observations  587049ebe0596

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:55 pm

January 7, 2017 Storm Observations  58704a2ce1e24

January 7, 2017 Storm Observations  58704a6fa7f44

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Post by aiannone Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:55 pm

January 7, 2017 Storm Observations  Nam_ms15
January 7, 2017 Storm Observations  Nam_ms16

0z Top, 18z Bottom
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