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January 7, 2017 Storm Observations

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Post by Math23x7 Fri Jan 06, 2017 10:23 pm

@aiannone wrote:January 7, 2017 Storm Observations  - Page 5 New10

0z RGEM

And keep in mind that it's based on 10:1 ratio, I would multiply these amounts by 1.2. Maybe they should be higher, but to be conservative, I use the 12:1 ratio.

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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Jan 06, 2017 10:23 pm

@aiannone wrote:
@weatherwatchermom wrote:
@aiannone wrote:
@weatherwatchermom wrote:
@aiannone wrote:New update from Nick Gregory. Also said if the trend continues he may have to raise them even higher
January 7, 2017 Storm Observations  - Page 5 15941310

so compared to the current models..how are his numbers..just curious..

Good call for right now. By morning hey may have to push those numbers a bit west if the trend holds, as he mentioned he would

tx..just curious again...are we still talking the same start time....

Yes

thank you!!
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Post by aiannone Fri Jan 06, 2017 10:24 pm

I told you all this will come back NW
January 7, 2017 Storm Observations  - Page 5 15940910
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Jan 06, 2017 10:24 pm

Where is frank,sroc,algae,rb with their input
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Post by dsvinos Fri Jan 06, 2017 10:25 pm

What snowfall ratio are we looking at?
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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Jan 06, 2017 10:26 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:Where is frank,sroc,algae,rb with their input

sroc had a party...rb has no internet...have not seen algae tonight....
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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Jan 06, 2017 10:27 pm

@weatherwatchermom wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:Where is frank,sroc,algae,rb with their input

sroc had a party...rb has no internet...have not seen algae tonight....

will you be on the roads tonight..or have to wait until tom...
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Jan 06, 2017 10:28 pm

@weatherwatchermom wrote:
@weatherwatchermom wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:Where is frank,sroc,algae,rb with their input

sroc had a party...rb has no internet...have not seen algae tonight....

will you be on the roads tonight..or have to wait until tom...

Will probably get called in sometime tommorrow. I'm hoping we get it
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Post by Guest Fri Jan 06, 2017 10:30 pm

WITH ALL OF THESE POSITIVE N AND W TRENDS TONIGHT THE NWS AT UPTON.......................LOWERED MY EXPECTED TOTAL!!! Shocked Shocked Shocked

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Post by aiannone Fri Jan 06, 2017 10:33 pm

Upton's new map..... I don't get it

January 7, 2017 Storm Observations  - Page 5 Stormt13
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Post by nutleyblizzard Fri Jan 06, 2017 10:36 pm

@aiannone wrote:Upton's new map..... I don't get it

January 7, 2017 Storm Observations  - Page 5 Stormt13
I guess they are discounting the RGEM. Doesn't make sense to me.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 06, 2017 10:38 pm

Aww come on wth nws...
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Post by aiannone Fri Jan 06, 2017 10:42 pm

0z RGEM with ratios

January 7, 2017 Storm Observations  - Page 5 15873010
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Post by oldtimer Fri Jan 06, 2017 10:42 pm

Its a conspiracy Two nights in a row!!

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Post by billg315 Fri Jan 06, 2017 10:43 pm

Wow. Some people moving this storm west and boosting totals, and the NWS seems to be lowering them. All less than 12 hours before the storm. Just throwing this out there (more a question than a suggestion): Could the NWS be buying into a westward shift, but thinking the duration will not be long enough to produce greater totals? In other words, is this "downplayed" map more about storm track or duration?
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Post by hyde345 Fri Jan 06, 2017 10:47 pm

@billg315 wrote:Wow. Some people moving this storm west and boosting totals, and the NWS seems to be lowering them. All less than 12 hours before the storm. Just throwing this out there (more a question than a suggestion): Could the NWS be buying into a westward shift, but thinking the duration will not be long enough to produce greater totals? In other words, is this "downplayed" map more about storm track or duration?

They seem to be disregarding the short range models and hugging the GFS. That's the only thing that can explain it.
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Post by devsman Fri Jan 06, 2017 10:50 pm

I still don't understand why a WWA wouldn't be issued for NYC-east. They issued one for today and that was a dusting. This will lay down at least 2 inches+ yet no WWA? Why?
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 06, 2017 10:50 pm

@aiannone wrote:0z RGEM with ratios

January 7, 2017 Storm Observations  - Page 5 15873010
the totals over li aren't that diff than nyc and just nw. That doesn't make sense. I would think they would be more than a inch or 2. And just point it out who's the small bullseye over a foot near boston
Oh that's it. Lol


Last edited by jmanley32 on Fri Jan 06, 2017 10:52 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by Math23x7 Fri Jan 06, 2017 10:50 pm

With all due respect to Upton, this was their snow map from "Juno" in January 2015:

January 7, 2017 Storm Observations  - Page 5 Nwssno10

Of course, I can't blame them for that, had the EURO from THE NIGHT BEFORE Juno verified, Bellerose would had had 30" of snow; I got 13".

As far as this goes, maybe they see virga being more of an issue with this storm. I remember from the February 5th-6th, 2010 snowstorm that just missed us, virga made its way up to Hartford, but the measureable snow stopped at the Verrazano and Goethals Bridges.

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Post by SENJsnowman Fri Jan 06, 2017 10:54 pm

@billg315 wrote:Wow. Some people moving this storm west and boosting totals, and the NWS seems to be lowering them. All less than 12 hours before the storm. Just throwing this out there (more a question than a suggestion): Could the NWS be buying into a westward shift, but thinking the duration will not be long enough to produce greater totals? In other words, is this "downplayed" map more about storm track or duration?

I don't see how that could be. Every future cast I've seen (Weather Channel, ABC 7, Fox 5) shows a 10-12 hour steady snowfall from the Shore straight up to NYC and over to LI. That said all, the NWS (and everyone else) has been calling this a quick hitter for 4 days now, so it might just be locked into that thinking.

For whatever reason, none of the the mets and outlets are buying the recent runs...they know more than me, so maybe for good reason...

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Post by billg315 Fri Jan 06, 2017 10:57 pm

Current weather in Atlanta: 31* with heavy freezing rain. That must be a disaster for that area. Freezing rain is a nightmare anywhere, but they really have no clue there how to deal with it.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Jan 06, 2017 10:59 pm

wow it feels like snow outside.....26* rf 19* winds N/E @10 mph and humidity at 55%
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Post by SoulSingMG Fri Jan 06, 2017 11:00 pm

Blizzard Warnings now up for the Cape & South Shore of Mass. Wonder if E. LI can get in on that action...
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 06, 2017 11:03 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:Blizzard Warnings now up for the Cape & South Shore of Mass. Wonder if E. LI can get in on that action...
anyone up for an overnight road trip to the cape? Alex lol. Seems like lp is gonna b closer therefore winds getting into cape.


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Post by aiannone Fri Jan 06, 2017 11:04 pm

Taunton raised their totals
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