January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
anyone up for an overnight road trip to the cape? Alex lol. Seems like lp is gonna b closer therefore winds getting into cape.SoulSingMG wrote:Blizzard Warnings now up for the Cape & South Shore of Mass. Wonder if E. LI can get in on that action...
Last edited by jmanley32 on Fri Jan 06, 2017 9:04 pm; edited 1 time in total
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
Taunton raised their totals
aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
jmanley32 wrote:anyone up for an overnight road trip to the cape? Alex lol.SoulSingMG wrote:Blizzard Warnings now up for the Cape & South Shore of Mass. Wonder if E. LI can get in on that action...
I was thinking about it lol
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
Clearly the Russians are hacking the computer models to create chaos and confusion.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
billg315 wrote:Clearly the Russians are hacking the computer models to create chaos and confusion.
Da comrade!
mikeypizano- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
Lee Goldberg has bumped up totals. Has 3-6 inches for NYC Metro.
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
nutleyblizzard wrote:Lee Goldberg has bumped up totals. Has 3-6 inches for NYC Metro.
do you have a webshot?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
CMC is west
This is looking like a 3-6 inch snowfall for NYC
This is looking like a 3-6 inch snowfall for NYC
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
According to the NWS Mt Holly Office:
This southern stream system looks to eventually phase with northern stream energy dropping down from Canada later Saturday. At the surface, secondary cyclogenesis is expected to occur along the Southeast U.S. coast tonight. This coastal low is then forecast to deepen as it tracks northeastward off the NC coast Saturday morning and then several hundred miles east of the Delmarva coastline Saturday afternoon. The exact track of the low will be dependent on how quickly both southern and northern stream systems phase and have significant implications on snowfall amounts/impacts that we`ll see from this system.
So, my question is: Are the recent NW and heavier snowfall trends a result of anticipated phasing, or is that not taken into account by the latest runs?
This southern stream system looks to eventually phase with northern stream energy dropping down from Canada later Saturday. At the surface, secondary cyclogenesis is expected to occur along the Southeast U.S. coast tonight. This coastal low is then forecast to deepen as it tracks northeastward off the NC coast Saturday morning and then several hundred miles east of the Delmarva coastline Saturday afternoon. The exact track of the low will be dependent on how quickly both southern and northern stream systems phase and have significant implications on snowfall amounts/impacts that we`ll see from this system.
So, my question is: Are the recent NW and heavier snowfall trends a result of anticipated phasing, or is that not taken into account by the latest runs?
SENJsnowman- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
SENJsnowman wrote:According to the NWS Mt Holly Office:
This southern stream system looks to eventually phase with northern stream energy dropping down from Canada later Saturday. At the surface, secondary cyclogenesis is expected to occur along the Southeast U.S. coast tonight. This coastal low is then forecast to deepen as it tracks northeastward off the NC coast Saturday morning and then several hundred miles east of the Delmarva coastline Saturday afternoon. The exact track of the low will be dependent on how quickly both southern and northern stream systems phase and have significant implications on snowfall amounts/impacts that we`ll see from this system.
So, my question is: Are the recent NW and heavier snowfall trends a result of anticipated phasing, or is that not taken into account by the latest runs?
are they suggeting a full phase?! frank said that was not going to happen but thats what we really needed.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
CMC NW of 12z, more similar to Hi-Res models. Looks like 4-6" for NYC with ratios. 6"+ Jersey Shore, LI
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
Lonnie just put cnj/ny/li in 4-8 and tip li 8+
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
If the low is Several Hundred miles east of the Delmara coastline Saturday afternoon and moving ne how could we get effects in New York Metro This according to Mt Holly
oldtimer- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
jmanley32 wrote:SENJsnowman wrote:According to the NWS Mt Holly Office:
This southern stream system looks to eventually phase with northern stream energy dropping down from Canada later Saturday. At the surface, secondary cyclogenesis is expected to occur along the Southeast U.S. coast tonight. This coastal low is then forecast to deepen as it tracks northeastward off the NC coast Saturday morning and then several hundred miles east of the Delmarva coastline Saturday afternoon. The exact track of the low will be dependent on how quickly both southern and northern stream systems phase and have significant implications on snowfall amounts/impacts that we`ll see from this system.
So, my question is: Are the recent NW and heavier snowfall trends a result of anticipated phasing, or is that not taken into account by the latest runs?
are they suggeting a full phase?! frank said that was not going to happen but thats what we really needed.
Not sure. Does this help?
The complex pattern described above contributes to the uncertainty as model sensitivity is magnified in phasing setups. If that doesn`t provide enough of a forecast challenge, the very tight snowfall
gradient on the western periphery of the storm is expected to setup somewhere over our area; roughly 75 miles may be distance between almost a foot vs an inch of snow. Consequentially, seemingly minor
shifts in the track (e.g., a 25-50 mile shift to the NW or SE) could result in significant differences in snowfall accumulations at a given location. This is why it is very important for us to communicate forecast uncertainty with this event. Our experimental snowfall probabilities help with that, but it still may not tell the whole story. The highest uncertainty regarding snowfall
accumulations are along and just east of I-95.
Also, I accidentally sent this reply as a 'report post' alert to mods. Sorry!
SENJsnowman- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
because the precipitation field is very large,oldtimer wrote:If the low is Several Hundred miles east of the Delmara coastline Saturday afternoon and moving ne how could we get effects in New York Metro This according to Mt Holly
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
jman I don't know but that track seems so far out to get the kinds of accumulations we are talking about
oldtimer- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
Already down to 18* here.
snow247- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
What's happening
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
you tell us LOL, NWS doesn't seem to think SR models are right, blizzard warnings up for cape 12-18 etc.Frank_Wx wrote:What's happening
what are your thoughts on the radar and the NWS discussion about phasing, didn't you say that that wasn't going to happen, at least not fully.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
00z UKIE is gorgeous. Would be shocked if Upton doesn't get their act together quickly and hoist a WSW from Manhattan on east.
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
Radar looks awesome, hope we get into the action tomorrow
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
aiannone wrote:I told you all this will come back NW
I have been at hockey games from 4Pm until now - yes lucky me but what a friggin turn - to SYO I hope you are happy - yuo owe me a YUUGGGGEE FN THANK U - if not I will block your debbie downer arse in the future.
Two I posted JB comments from the phone call he had with his friend on another board who I am friendly with and he said 3-6 if we hit OBX 6-12" take note of this tomorrow.
Three I NEVER GAVE UP ON THIS STORM JUST WAS FRIGGIN patient.
Fout rteh UKMET ticked west yet again GIDDEEE UP.
We are getting 4-6" in NYC Metro
@ old timer what did I post yesterday about the gfs - trust the HI RES and SR models with major convective set up slike this - GFS is a crap model with these set ups overall.
Here are the Brits always by our side - WOOO HOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!
LASTLY ON THE PARKWAY DRIVING HOME TONIGHT - MAJOR WINTER STORM BE PREPARED - LAST TIME I SAW THAT SIGN ............YOU GUESSED THE BLITZ OF LAST YEAR!!
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
mugs where are you that it says that on the highway most of central to northern NJ doesnt even havea WWA, I do not get the NWS. DOT knows more than they do!?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
EURO TICKED WEST BY A GOOD 25 MILKES WOO FN HOOOO!
Moderate snow itno NYC metro for 10 fricking hour 16/17 to 26/27
Moderate snow itno NYC metro for 10 fricking hour 16/17 to 26/27
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
DUDE Paramus and Clifton had these on their signs - they listen to us and f the NWS HAHAAH!!jmanley32 wrote:mugs where are you that it says that on the highway most of central to northern NJ doesnt even havea WWA, I do not get the NWS. DOT knows more than they do!?
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
NYC looks to be .45 F this WHY aren't their WSW up for NYC and EAST!!
15:1 ratios per soundings peeps gives you 6-9", 12:1 = 5 - 8 roughly"
qpf per Euro give another 25 mile tick west and easily 6-10"
15:1 ratios per soundings peeps gives you 6-9", 12:1 = 5 - 8 roughly"
qpf per Euro give another 25 mile tick west and easily 6-10"
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
Thats hilarious, thats like a half hour drive over bridge from me wow. I wonder if any signs here say that.amugs wrote:DUDE Paramus and Clifton had these on their signs - they listen to us and f the NWS HAHAAH!!jmanley32 wrote:mugs where are you that it says that on the highway most of central to northern NJ doesnt even havea WWA, I do not get the NWS. DOT knows more than they do!?
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