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January 7, 2017 Storm Observations

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Post by aiannone Fri Jan 06, 2017 11:04 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:Blizzard Warnings now up for the Cape & South Shore of Mass. Wonder if E. LI can get in on that action...
anyone up for an overnight road trip to the cape? Alex lol.

I was thinking about it lol
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Post by billg315 Fri Jan 06, 2017 11:11 pm

Clearly the Russians are hacking the computer models to create chaos and confusion.
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Post by mikeypizano Fri Jan 06, 2017 11:11 pm

@billg315 wrote:Clearly the Russians are hacking the computer models to create chaos and confusion.

Da comrade!
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Post by nutleyblizzard Fri Jan 06, 2017 11:12 pm

Lee Goldberg has bumped up totals. Has 3-6 inches for NYC Metro.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 06, 2017 11:15 pm

@nutleyblizzard wrote:Lee Goldberg has bumped up totals. Has 3-6 inches for NYC Metro.

do you have a webshot?
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Post by Snow88 Fri Jan 06, 2017 11:18 pm

CMC is west

This is looking like a 3-6 inch snowfall for NYC
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Post by SENJsnowman Fri Jan 06, 2017 11:19 pm

According to the NWS Mt Holly Office:

This southern stream system looks to eventually phase with northern stream energy dropping down from Canada later Saturday. At the surface, secondary cyclogenesis is expected to occur along the Southeast U.S. coast tonight. This coastal low is then forecast to deepen as it tracks northeastward off the NC coast Saturday morning and then several hundred miles east of the Delmarva coastline Saturday afternoon. The exact track of the low will be dependent on how quickly both southern and northern stream systems phase and have significant implications on snowfall amounts/impacts that we`ll see from this system.

So, my question is: Are the recent NW and heavier snowfall trends a result of anticipated phasing, or is that not taken into account by the latest runs?

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 06, 2017 11:20 pm

@SENJsnowman wrote:According to the NWS Mt Holly Office:

This southern stream system looks to eventually phase with northern stream energy dropping down from Canada later Saturday. At the surface, secondary cyclogenesis is expected to occur along the Southeast U.S. coast tonight. This coastal low is then forecast to deepen as it tracks northeastward off the NC coast Saturday morning and then several hundred miles east of the Delmarva coastline Saturday afternoon. The exact track of the low will be dependent on how quickly both southern and northern stream systems phase and have significant implications on snowfall amounts/impacts that we`ll see from this system.

So, my question is: Are the recent NW and heavier snowfall trends a result of anticipated phasing, or is that not taken into account by the latest runs?

are they suggeting a full phase?! frank said that was not going to happen but thats what we really needed.
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Post by Sanchize06 Fri Jan 06, 2017 11:21 pm

CMC NW of 12z, more similar to Hi-Res models. Looks like 4-6" for NYC with ratios. 6"+ Jersey Shore, LI

January 7, 2017 Storm Observations  - Page 6 Gem_asnow_neus_6

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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Jan 06, 2017 11:24 pm

Lonnie just put cnj/ny/li in 4-8 and tip li 8+
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Post by oldtimer Fri Jan 06, 2017 11:40 pm

If the low is Several Hundred miles east of the Delmara coastline Saturday afternoon and moving ne how could we get effects in New York Metro This according to Mt Holly

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Post by SENJsnowman Fri Jan 06, 2017 11:41 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@SENJsnowman wrote:According to the NWS Mt Holly Office:

This southern stream system looks to eventually phase with northern stream energy dropping down from Canada later Saturday. At the surface, secondary cyclogenesis is expected to occur along the Southeast U.S. coast tonight. This coastal low is then forecast to deepen as it tracks northeastward off the NC coast Saturday morning and then several hundred miles east of the Delmarva coastline Saturday afternoon. The exact track of the low will be dependent on how quickly both southern and northern stream systems phase and have significant implications on snowfall amounts/impacts that we`ll see from this system.

So, my question is: Are the recent NW and heavier snowfall trends a result of anticipated phasing, or is that not taken into account by the latest runs?

are they suggeting a full phase?! frank said that was not going to happen but thats what we really needed.

Not sure. Does this help?

The complex pattern described above contributes to the uncertainty as model sensitivity is magnified in phasing setups. If that doesn`t provide enough of a forecast challenge, the very tight snowfall
gradient on the western periphery of the storm is expected to setup somewhere over our area; roughly 75 miles may be distance between almost a foot vs an inch of snow. Consequentially, seemingly minor
shifts in the track (e.g., a 25-50 mile shift to the NW or SE) could result in significant differences in snowfall accumulations at a given location. This is why it is very important for us to communicate forecast uncertainty with this event. Our experimental snowfall probabilities help with that, but it still may not tell the whole story. The highest uncertainty regarding snowfall
accumulations are along and just east of I-95.

Also, I accidentally sent this reply as a 'report post' alert to mods. Sorry!

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 06, 2017 11:43 pm

@oldtimer wrote:If the low is Several Hundred miles east of the Delmara coastline Saturday afternoon and moving ne how could we get effects in New York Metro    This according to Mt Holly
because the precipitation field is very large,
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Post by oldtimer Fri Jan 06, 2017 11:52 pm

jman I don't know but that track seems so far out to get the kinds of accumulations we are talking about

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Post by snow247 Fri Jan 06, 2017 11:54 pm

Already down to 18* here.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 07, 2017 12:00 am

What's happening

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 07, 2017 12:11 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:What's happening
you tell us LOL, NWS doesn't seem to think SR models are right, blizzard warnings up for cape 12-18 etc.

what are your thoughts on the radar and the NWS discussion about phasing, didn't you say that that wasn't going to happen, at least not fully.
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Post by SoulSingMG Sat Jan 07, 2017 12:27 am

00z UKIE is gorgeous. Would be shocked if Upton doesn't get their act together quickly and hoist a WSW from Manhattan on east.

January 7, 2017 Storm Observations  - Page 6 Img_1812
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Post by Radz Sat Jan 07, 2017 12:29 am

Radar looks awesome, hope we get into the action tomorrow
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Post by amugs Sat Jan 07, 2017 12:48 am

@aiannone wrote:I told you all this will come back NW
January 7, 2017 Storm Observations  - Page 6 15940910

I have been at hockey games from 4Pm until now - yes lucky me but what a friggin turn - to SYO I hope you are happy - yuo owe me a YUUGGGGEE FN THANK U - if not I will block your debbie downer arse in the future.
Two I posted JB comments from the phone call he had with his friend on another board who I am friendly with and he said 3-6 if we hit OBX 6-12" take note of this tomorrow.
Three I NEVER GAVE UP ON THIS STORM JUST WAS FRIGGIN patient.
Fout rteh UKMET ticked west yet again GIDDEEE UP.
We are getting 4-6" in NYC Metro
@ old timer what did I post yesterday about the gfs - trust the HI RES and SR models with major convective set up slike this - GFS is a crap model with these set ups overall.
Here are the Brits always by our side - WOOO HOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!

January 7, 2017 Storm Observations  - Page 6 587075b9c23c0_ukmetaccumulations12z.thumb.gif.06224bcf3d03c0390f09585ee03bab21


LASTLY ON THE PARKWAY DRIVING HOME TONIGHT - MAJOR WINTER STORM BE PREPARED - LAST TIME I SAW THAT SIGN ............YOU GUESSED THE BLITZ OF LAST YEAR!!

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 07, 2017 12:53 am

mugs where are you that it says that on the highway most of central to northern NJ doesnt even havea WWA, I do not get the NWS. DOT knows more than they do!?
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Post by amugs Sat Jan 07, 2017 12:57 am

EURO TICKED WEST BY A GOOD 25 MILKES WOO FN HOOOO!
Moderate snow itno NYC metro for 10 fricking hour 16/17 to 26/27

January 7, 2017 Storm Observations  - Page 6 IMG_7486.thumb.PNG.73503841be26eaae53d3080889698e5d

January 7, 2017 Storm Observations  - Page 6 IMG_7487.thumb.PNG.32950b5ce8ce4ba8d8ecd987f3d2ca0d

January 7, 2017 Storm Observations  - Page 6 IMG_7488.thumb.PNG.aae5f2412c2543ec45c9a2fe57e500be


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Post by amugs Sat Jan 07, 2017 12:58 am

@jmanley32 wrote:mugs where are you that it says that on the highway most of central to northern NJ doesnt even havea WWA, I do not get the NWS. DOT knows more than they do!?
DUDE Paramus and Clifton had these on their signs - they listen to us and f the NWS HAHAAH!!

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Post by amugs Sat Jan 07, 2017 1:02 am

NYC looks to be .45 F this WHY aren't their WSW up for NYC and EAST!!
15:1 ratios per soundings peeps gives you 6-9", 12:1 = 5 - 8 roughly"

qpf per Euro give another 25 mile tick west and easily 6-10"

January 7, 2017 Storm Observations  - Page 6 IMG_0221.thumb.PNG.dc4a70449b1d6219e669dbf49f6418ce

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 07, 2017 1:02 am

@amugs wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:mugs where are you that it says that on the highway most of central to northern NJ doesnt even havea WWA, I do not get the NWS. DOT knows more than they do!?
DUDE Paramus and Clifton had these on their signs - they listen to us and f the NWS HAHAAH!!
Thats hilarious, thats like a half hour drive over bridge from me wow. I wonder if any signs here say that.
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