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01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 08, 2017 2:59 pm

Another active of week of tracking is expected as models are hinting at a possible winter storm next weekend. Cold air is expected to hang around through Tuesday this week. By Wednesday, we warm up considerably into the 50's and the mild air persists through Friday. Once we get to Saturday, cold air is modeled to sweep through our area thanks to a series of Canadian High Pressure systems working their way through south-central and southeastern Canada.

01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions  Euro_h5

The upper level pattern next weekend shows a few interesting features:

1. A split-flow in the western U.S. as a closed 500mb vort digs into the SW CONUS. A ridge builds over western Canada ahead of another closed 500mb vort over Alaska.

2. A ridge building in the north-central Atlantic with positive height anomalies trying to poke into Greenland, or the NAO domain.

3. Extremely zonal flow from southern Canada into the Northeast U.S. The pressure gradients between the HP's to our north and the strong SE Ridge will allow waves of low pressure to develop and track toward our area.

01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions  Euro_precip

01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions  Euro_Sat_Night

Today's EURO showed a mixed bag winter storm. What's key to this forecast will be the HP to our north. A strong HP located in SE Canada should put us under a NNE flow which would take the cold air in Canada and drive it southward into our area. But if it's further north, or weaker, the SE Ridge will overpower it and the wind flow will turn from the south, allowing our temperatures to warm up and keep precipitation in the form of rain.

01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions  Euro_set_up

This is the type of forecast that could produce VERY heavy snowfall rates as long as you have the cold air. Warm air riding into a cold air source promotes vertical motion which enhances precipitation rates. In my experience, I've seen these types of storms produce thunder-snow as well. The cold and warm air battle each other and our atmosphere responds in an explosive manner. Of course, we need a few things to go right for us in order for the baroclinic zone (normally the area where the 0*C 850mb isotherm divides) to stay south of us. Naturally, areas N&W of NYC have a REALLY good shot of seeing a high end snowfall. This includes NEPA. Then as you go south from there the odds become more difficult.

We'll see what happens!


Last edited by Frank_Wx on Sat Jan 14, 2017 12:08 am; edited 2 times in total

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Post by rb924119 Sun Jan 08, 2017 3:12 pm

Well, I guess there's no need for a video now Brick Lmao Nice summary! This is one of the periods I was really getting amped up over too, so I'm looking forward to see how it evolves.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 08, 2017 3:18 pm

There is always a need for a Ray video! I personally did not find this time period interesting at first, but looking over 12z data this afternoon changed my thinking a bit. I do think northern and high elevated areas are in for a doozy but time will tell. So many surface High's to look at and we have to monitor which H5 open waves models focus on.

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Post by aiannone Sun Jan 08, 2017 3:19 pm

Was planning on going back to school Sunday, might have to wait lol
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Post by Armando Salvadore Sun Jan 08, 2017 3:21 pm

Great write up Frank. Havent looked much into medium range, but this is a prime example of why not to take what models show verbatim in the medium/long range. You see that SE ridge and automatically think "torch". Not so fast! That is typical of a la nina as long as you have cold air supply nearby (western Canada and US).
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Post by nutleyblizzard Sun Jan 08, 2017 3:38 pm

Potential for an extreme snow event. Like you said Frank its all dependent on high placement. Maps remind me of PD II.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Jan 08, 2017 3:39 pm

@nutleyblizzard wrote:Potential for an extreme snow event. Like you said Frank its all dependent on high placement. Maps remind me of PD II.

Don't go there, yet!
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 08, 2017 3:48 pm

Euro Ensembles for the weekend

01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions  FB_IMG_1483908329494.jpg.2b25ee2e19a8f04569ae93889b33a201

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 08, 2017 4:00 pm

Euro Control

01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions  Eps_snow_c_nyc_37.png.9b21fd45befe005f353bde0b6501bb47

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Post by Math23x7 Sun Jan 08, 2017 4:02 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Euro Ensembles for the weekend

01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions  FB_IMG_1483908329494.jpg.2b25ee2e19a8f04569ae93889b33a201

When dealing with those types of maps, keep in mind that it considers ice as snow. It is not out of the question that this could be an ice storm, especially for upstate NY. Still time to monitor this but this would be a thread the needle event. Unlike this past storm, which was all snow with the question of how close the big snow would be, this one would be how close is the cold air boundary both at the surface and in the upper levels.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 08, 2017 4:03 pm

@Math23x7 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Euro Ensembles for the weekend

01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions  FB_IMG_1483908329494.jpg.2b25ee2e19a8f04569ae93889b33a201

When dealing with those types of maps, keep in mind that it considers ice as snow.  It is not out of the question that this could be an ice storm, especially for upstate NY. Still time to monitor this but this would be a thread the needle event.  Unlike this past storm, which was all snow with the question of how close the big snow would be, this one would be how close is the cold air boundary both at the surface and in the upper levels.

Correct.

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Post by SoulSingMG Sun Jan 08, 2017 4:04 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Euro Control

01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions  Eps_snow_c_nyc_37.png.9b21fd45befe005f353bde0b6501bb47

Half a foot line slicing Manhattan right in half.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 08, 2017 4:10 pm

The euro alreasy showing this good sign imo. Will this b snother Sr model coup? Or will the lr models have a better chance with this? You saw last night's snow map I posted in banter for cmc. I really hope tgat happens and sounds like it is in the realm of possibilities.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Jan 08, 2017 4:20 pm

Need it South more just saying
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Post by jake732 Sun Jan 08, 2017 4:22 pm

couldnt agree more! 100 miles south and lock it!
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Jan 08, 2017 4:25 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:Need it South more just saying

you greedy bastard skins Very Happy
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Post by track17 Sun Jan 08, 2017 4:26 pm

Jake and skins it looks like this will not be the shore's storm but that is ok winter is still a long way from over

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Jan 08, 2017 4:38 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:Need it South more just saying

you greedy bastard skins Very Happy

Its the white gold fever and OT at work it does this to me. Very Happy
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Jan 08, 2017 4:39 pm

@track17 wrote:Jake and skins it looks like this will not be the shore's storm but that is ok winter is still a long way from over

To early for track no pun intended

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 08, 2017 4:40 pm

As frank explaoned it depends on how far south the cold can get. I think there is precip to the south just right now shows rain. But odds are yes city on nw and east will b more likely to see a big storm. I think u gits will get urs and this past one wasn't half bad for jersey shore. The prospects of a really big snowstorm and even rb being excited is def go keep me opened all week.
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Post by rb924119 Sun Jan 08, 2017 4:40 pm

@nutleyblizzard wrote:Potential for an extreme snow event. Like you said Frank its all dependent on high placement. Maps remind me of PD II.

I'm not saying that a similar result will or even has a chance of happening, but after you said this it got me curious. At first glance this is a GREAT analog. I'm about to do some further digging because you really got me thinking. Certainly interesting to say the least!

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Post by Guest Sun Jan 08, 2017 5:08 pm

@rb924119 wrote:
@nutleyblizzard wrote:Potential for an extreme snow event. Like you said Frank its all dependent on high placement. Maps remind me of PD II.

I'm not saying that a similar result will or even has a chance of happening, but after you said this it got me curious. At first glance this is a GREAT analog. I'm about to do some further digging because you really got me thinking. Certainly interesting to say the least!

PDII??? What is this?

2 things. First I agree with Alex that the depth and magnitude of the cold air we have now compared with the snowpack is goingf to cause the warm air to be held back more than forecast come Tuesday.

Second we need the cold front on Friday to be a little stronger than currently forecast so the boundary gets pushed down even further for the weekend threat. The HP's are forecast to be in south Quebec and another over the Great lakes which are a good spot.

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Post by Math23x7 Sun Jan 08, 2017 5:14 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:
@nutleyblizzard wrote:Potential for an extreme snow event. Like you said Frank its all dependent on high placement. Maps remind me of PD II.

I'm not saying that a similar result will or even has a chance of happening, but after you said this it got me curious. At first glance this is a GREAT analog. I'm about to do some further digging because you really got me thinking. Certainly interesting to say the least!

PDII???  What is this?

2 things.  First I agree with Alex that the depth and magnitude of the cold air we have now compared with the snowpack is goingf to cause the warm air to be held back more than forecast come Tuesday.

Second we need the cold front on Friday to be a little stronger than currently forecast so the boundary gets pushed down even further for the weekend threat.  The HP's are forecast to be in south Quebec and another over the Great lakes which are a good spot.

PDII: President's Day Blizzard II, more specifically the 2003 President's Day Blizzard

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Jan 08, 2017 5:16 pm

Does anyone have pdII snow maps?
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Post by rb924119 Sun Jan 08, 2017 5:17 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:Does anyone have pdII snow maps?

DONT DO THAT TO YOURSELF lmao

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