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01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions

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Post by sroc4 Tue Jan 10, 2017 12:31 pm

And the time frameyour getting excited about by the end of next weekend is EXACTLY whatI was reffering to as well in my little synopsis in the lR thread.  If we get a nice little SOI crash as we head into this weekend I think that MJO pulse may be real and like I said prev watch for a nice trough to show up by the end of next week.   This links nicely to what you discussed with regards to the ridge bridging.

Lastly it looks like we are in the middle of another reinforcing SOI spike the likes of which looks to last approx another 1-2 days; the results of which is usually the amplification of the SE ridge, so its no surprise at what we are looking at with regards to cutters etc.
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/

However, beyond 48hrs it should come back down towards neutral territory, and there is some evidence that by the end of the week we could see a significant crash of the SOI as it appears that there will be HP building over Darwin Australia and pressures lower around Tahiti. The MJO forecasts correlate nicely with the SOI spike as it is coming out in phases 5 and 6; however if the Md range MJO forecasts are correct they could be hinting at coming out in phase 1. That said, and this has been said many times thus far this winter season, the Md and LR MJO forecasts have been deplorable at best. IF we get a significant enough SOI crash , on the order of -15 to -20 or lower for a few days, expect a favorable MJO pulse, the result of which would likely lead to a trough and potentially a snow threat about 5-7days later. Keep in mind; however, that the possibility of an SOI crash exists, but doesn't mean it is guaranteed. LR forecast to the Darwin Tahiti regions of course can change just like in our back yards.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Jan 10, 2017 12:42 pm

@weatherwatchermom wrote:Oh so sorry did not mean to sound selfish...Just wondering how far south coming...Always want the white stuff...Snow is like good glass of tequila always leaving you wanting more..lol. Knew this was a storm for you north and west guys...sorry Sad

That is no guarantee. This could still work out very well for CNJ and not so well for the north. The track is very uncertain at this early date.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 10, 2017 12:59 pm

No time to watch videos at work, but based off the discussions from Scott and Ray, I can't disagree. I do think models are underplaying the qpf at the moment. The s/w ejecting out of the PAC will not be properly sampled until later in the week. The frontogenesis along the baroclinic zone should be fierce with a strong HP to our north and south. Exactly where the surface low tracks will determine who sees what. I can see this storm bringing a broad area of light accumulations and a narrow area of moderate to high accumulations. Those just north of the gradient will cash in.

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 10, 2017 1:18 pm

EURO looks good. And I think it still has room to strengthen for the reasons mentioned above by many.

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 10, 2017 1:22 pm

I would say the narrow band of heavier accumulations of at least 6-12" is possible somewhere between Washington DC and southern NY-central CT. Not everyone will see those types of accumulations. It will be narrow. With 2-4/3-6 for those north and south of that area.

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Post by jake732 Tue Jan 10, 2017 1:24 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:I would say the narrow band of heavier accumulations of at least 6-12" is possible somewhere between Washington DC and southern NY-central CT. Not everyone will see those types of accumulations. It will be narrow. With 2-4/3-6 for those north and south of that area.

frank, the 6-12 can be on the coast or is it for an inland special?
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 10, 2017 1:26 pm

@jake732 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:I would say the narrow band of heavier accumulations of at least 6-12" is possible somewhere between Washington DC and southern NY-central CT. Not everyone will see those types of accumulations. It will be narrow. With 2-4/3-6 for those north and south of that area.

frank, the 6-12 can be on the coast or is it for an inland special?

Includes the coast.

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Post by SNOW MAN Tue Jan 10, 2017 1:39 pm

Frank, who's your four legged friend in your new picture and what's his/her name ?
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Post by Guest Tue Jan 10, 2017 1:53 pm

@weatherwatchermom wrote:Oh so sorry did not mean to sound selfish...Just wondering how far south coming...Always want the white stuff...Snow is like good glass of tequila always leaving you wanting more..lol. Knew this was a storm for you north and west guys...sorry Sad

Oh my God I thought you knew I was kidding. Sorry. Shocked

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 10, 2017 1:58 pm

@SNOW MAN wrote:Frank, who's your four legged friend in your new picture and what's his/her name ?

Jake. Adopted him when he was 10 months. He'll be 9 this summer. Very Happy

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Post by Grselig Tue Jan 10, 2017 2:02 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@SNOW MAN wrote:Frank, who's your four legged friend in your new picture and what's his/her name ?

Jake. Adopted him when he was 10 months. He'll be 9 this summer. Very Happy

Whats his name.  I'm really hoping it ends in zilla. oops. i just read he's Jake


Last edited by Grselig on Tue Jan 10, 2017 2:23 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by dkodgis Tue Jan 10, 2017 2:22 pm

What about all that west coast energy? It will start hitting us about that same time period, no? Could it help fuel the snow?
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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Jan 10, 2017 2:40 pm

So cnj coast is in a good spot.
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Post by billg315 Tue Jan 10, 2017 3:04 pm

I haven't been optimistic about this setup so I'll sign right now for a broad area with light accumulations and a narrow band of heavy accumulations within it. If there's even a chance for me to fall in that heavier zone, I'll take a gamble on it. Let's play some "snow jackpot" roulette. haha
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Post by sroc4 Tue Jan 10, 2017 3:06 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:I would say the narrow band of heavier accumulations of at least 6-12" is possible somewhere between Washington DC and southern NY-central CT. Not everyone will see those types of accumulations. It will be narrow. With 2-4/3-6 for those north and south of that area.

Great point Frank, one that I failed to mention. Any totals higher than 6" will not likely be widespread.

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Jan 10, 2017 3:14 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
@weatherwatchermom wrote:Oh so sorry did not mean to sound selfish...Just wondering how far south coming...Always want the white stuff...Snow is like good glass of tequila always leaving you wanting more..lol. Knew this was a storm for you north and west guys...sorry Sad

Oh my God I thought you knew I was kidding.  Sorry. Shocked
Gottcha Knew you would feel guilty Laughing Laughing ...no more said..because this is banter!!
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Post by billg315 Tue Jan 10, 2017 3:16 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:I would say the narrow band of heavier accumulations of at least 6-12" is possible somewhere between Washington DC and southern NY-central CT. Not everyone will see those types of accumulations. It will be narrow. With 2-4/3-6 for those north and south of that area.

Great point Frank, one that I failed to mention. Any totals higher than 6" will not likely be widespread.

Scott I see your point about snow or nothing due to the cold hanging tough and the suppression issues. Do you think then that this could be one of those situations were the heavy snow-to-nothing cutoff is very sharp (in other words one area gets 6" or so, and just 20 or 30 miles north of there its just flurries)? Or do you see a larger area of light accumulation with a heavier jackpot zone within it?
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Post by sroc4 Tue Jan 10, 2017 3:41 pm

@billg315 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:I would say the narrow band of heavier accumulations of at least 6-12" is possible somewhere between Washington DC and southern NY-central CT. Not everyone will see those types of accumulations. It will be narrow. With 2-4/3-6 for those north and south of that area.

Great point Frank, one that I failed to mention. Any totals higher than 6" will not likely be widespread.

Scott I see your point about snow or nothing due to the cold hanging tough and the suppression issues. Do you think then that this could be one of those situations were the heavy snow-to-nothing cutoff is very sharp (in other words one area gets 6" or so, and just 20 or 30 miles north of there its just flurries)? Or do you see a larger area of light accumulation with a heavier jackpot zone within it?

Probably not Bill for reasons Rb outlined nicely in his video. This prob will be a light long duration event 8-12hrs leading to a wide swath of mild-mod accumulations. 1-3"/2-4/3-6" kind of event depending on exact track. The enhancement comes as the main low exits the coast. I don't think we get that narrow 20mile band of 4-8" where everywhere else is a coating like you might see in say an inverted trough set up.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Guest Tue Jan 10, 2017 3:57 pm

@weatherwatchermom wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
@weatherwatchermom wrote:Oh so sorry did not mean to sound selfish...Just wondering how far south coming...Always want the white stuff...Snow is like good glass of tequila always leaving you wanting more..lol. Knew this was a storm for you north and west guys...sorry Sad

Oh my God I thought you knew I was kidding.  Sorry. Shocked
Gottcha Knew you would feel guilty Laughing Laughing ...no more said..because this is banter!!

Evil and sadistic of you...........me likey rabbit rabbit

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Jan 10, 2017 4:36 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:So cnj coast is in a good spot.

In the last three or four years when aren't you in a good spot. Very Happy
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:25 pm

Haven't been on much but ud like to b in a 3 to 6 4 to 8 situation again. 6 to 12 wpuld b hot but im.not expect that.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:39 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:So cnj coast is in a good spot.

In the last three or four years when aren't you in a good spot. Very Happy

Good point but ment for this particular set up Very Happy
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 10, 2017 8:12 pm

The GEFS have a stripe of 6" from central PA to NEPA to NWNJ. Most importantly, they continue to be more robust than the OP GFS. And with the EURO looking pretty good, that raises my confidence of at least a light accumulation to 60%.

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Post by aiannone Tue Jan 10, 2017 9:52 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:The GEFS have a stripe of 6" from central PA to NEPA to NWNJ. Most importantly, they continue to be more robust than the OP GFS. And with the EURO looking pretty good, that raises my confidence of at least a light accumulation to 60%.

Did that spread into NYC and LI?
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Post by aiannone Tue Jan 10, 2017 9:54 pm

NWS Upton:
"A frontal wave then passes south of the area Saturday night into Sunday morning. Vertical temperature profiles support a light snow event with 1 to 2 inches possible at this time. This is a weak, fast moving system with not much potential to be anything more than an advisory level event."
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