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01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions

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Post by HEATMISER Wed Jan 11, 2017 9:34 am

Where did everyone go about this storm for the weekend?

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Post by essexcountypete Wed Jan 11, 2017 9:55 am

I was wondering why it was so quiet, and then I checked Upton's morning update Evil or Very Mad...

The next chance of precipitation comes, late Saturday and Saturday night as a wave of low pressure passes south of the region. Precipitation with this event will be all snow with cold temperatures profiles over the region.  There are some indications in the 00Z forecast guidance showing the high building far enough south to keep parts of the CWA dry though this period. Not quite ready to go completely dry this weekend, but will limit pops to chance. This will be a low QPF event, so no significant accumulations are expected.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 11, 2017 10:03 am

It seems most of the H5 upper air energy is looking to stay west, and only a small piece from the Pacific tracks east. When the energy is as weak as currently modeled, it will not be enough to develop a strong surface low pressure system. What we're left is a weak wave. However, I still think light accumulations are possible. 3-6" is still the ceiling for this event.

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Post by algae888 Wed Jan 11, 2017 2:24 pm

Models have trended South with the event for this weekend however ensembles still show some support for a more Northerly solution and some snow into our area. With the way this winter has been going I would expect a northward shift. don't expect a big event 1 to 3 inch still seems possible
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Post by frank 638 Wed Jan 11, 2017 4:13 pm

joe coffi has his first snow map for sat night so far he has city longisland northern jersey a coating of snow with more to the south of jersey thats 1 to 2 inches please tell me it will go up i will be happy with 2 to 4 inches

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 11, 2017 9:12 pm

Well, this threat did not go quite as expected. Hardly looking at any accumulations on latest model runs. The upper energy is too weak. Too much is being held back in the west.

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Post by algae888 Wed Jan 11, 2017 10:01 pm

@algae888 wrote:Models have trended South with the event for this weekend however ensembles still show some support for a more Northerly solution and some snow into our area. With the way this winter has been going I would expect a northward shift. don't expect a big event 1 to 3 inch still seems possible
big shift north with the 18z gfs and 00z nam. now lets see if it can trend stronger...
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00z
01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions  - Page 6 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_50
18z
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Post by algae888 Wed Jan 11, 2017 10:02 pm

01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions  - Page 6 Namconus_asnow_neus_29
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Post by aiannone Wed Jan 11, 2017 11:43 pm

0z NAM and 0z GFS are both well north. However the precip is still quite light.
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Post by sroc4 Thu Jan 12, 2017 6:44 am

Yeah this really did trend crappy. We will see if thing change with the s/r models but ehh for now.

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Jan 12, 2017 7:12 am

What's the timeframe on this event Saturday or sunday
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Post by algae888 Thu Jan 12, 2017 11:47 am

@sroc4 wrote:Yeah this really did trend crappy. We will see if thing change with the s/r models but ehh for now.
It did Scott but you guys were right there's going to be a 3 to 6 inch swath of snow somewhere between DC and Philly hopefully that can shift North the next day or so
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Post by aiannone Thu Jan 12, 2017 10:15 pm

0z NAM came north and wetter again haha.
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Post by Math23x7 Thu Jan 12, 2017 10:28 pm

Even if it coats the ground at CPK, the Conservancy will record a trace of snow. Facts.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Jan 12, 2017 10:43 pm

@Math23x7 wrote:Even if it coats the ground at CPK, the Conservancy will record a trace of snow.  Facts.

And if they do, and let's be real they will, we will continue to fight them after every snowfall.

I've instructed my wife and kids to write on my tombstone.

"Here lies CP Cantmeasuresnow 1961-????"
"He probably would have lived another 30 years"
"If that ahole the zookeeper didn't torment him for 30+ winters"
"Only to be finished off by the incompetents at the Conservancy"
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Post by docstox12 Fri Jan 13, 2017 4:22 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@Math23x7 wrote:Even if it coats the ground at CPK, the Conservancy will record a trace of snow.  Facts.

And if they do, and let's be real they will, we will continue to fight them after every snowfall.

I've instructed my wife and kids to write on my tombstone.

"Here lies CP Cantmeasuresnow 1961-????"
"He probably would have lived another 30 years"
"If that ahole the zookeeper didn't torment him for 30+ winters"
"Only to be finished off by the incompetents at the Conservancy"

lol! lol! lol!

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Post by algae888 Fri Jan 13, 2017 9:21 pm

Wow nam 1-2" for tom. night
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Post by algae888 Fri Jan 13, 2017 10:27 pm

rgem also 1-2". nws forecast is dry after todays 12z runs.
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rgem
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4k nam
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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 13, 2017 11:21 pm

Yet again short range guidance appears to score a coup as now ALL 00z guidance tonight is trending significantly further north and wetter for tomorrow's event. Looks like a coating-2" event for most along and north of I-78 and along and south of I-84 based on the modeling, but would not be surprised to see that get upped relativepy substantially over night tonight.

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Post by dkodgis Fri Jan 13, 2017 11:26 pm

What IS it with north of I-84 anyway and snow?
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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 13, 2017 11:36 pm

@dkodgis wrote:What IS it with north of I-84 anyway and snow?

Idk, man, although we haven't done too poorly this year, comparitively lol did one of forget to make our annual sacrifice to the Pagan Snow God??? I'll bet that's what it is lmao

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Post by dkodgis Fri Jan 13, 2017 11:45 pm

I know, right? Really it is surprising how I-84 is the cutoff. Like it has some magical properties around the time-space continuum.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 14, 2017 12:17 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Another active of week of tracking is expected as models are hinting at a possible winter storm next weekend. Cold air is expected to hang around through Tuesday this week. By Wednesday, we warm up considerably into the 50's and the mild air persists through Friday. Once we get to Saturday, cold air is modeled to sweep through our area thanks to a series of Canadian High Pressure systems working their way through south-central and southeastern Canada.

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The upper level pattern next weekend shows a few interesting features:

1. A split-flow in the western U.S. as a closed 500mb vort digs into the SW CONUS. A ridge builds over western Canada ahead of another closed 500mb vort over Alaska.

2. A ridge building in the north-central Atlantic with positive height anomalies trying to poke into Greenland, or the NAO domain.

3. Extremely zonal flow from southern Canada into the Northeast U.S. The pressure gradients between the HP's to our north and the strong SE Ridge will allow waves of low pressure to develop and track toward our area.

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Today's EURO showed a mixed bag winter storm. What's key to this forecast will be the HP to our north. A strong HP located in SE Canada should put us under a NNE flow which would take the cold air in Canada and drive it southward into our area. But if it's further north, or weaker, the SE Ridge will overpower it and the wind flow will turn from the south, allowing our temperatures to warm up and keep precipitation in the form of rain.

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This is the type of forecast that could produce VERY heavy snowfall rates as long as you have the cold air. Warm air riding into a cold air source promotes vertical motion which enhances precipitation rates. In my experience, I've seen these types of storms produce thunder-snow as well. The cold and warm air battle each other and our atmosphere responds in an explosive manner. Of course, we need a few things to go right for us in order for the baroclinic zone (normally the area where the 0*C 850mb isotherm divides) to stay south of us. Naturally, areas N&W of NYC have a REALLY good shot of seeing a high end snowfall. This includes NEPA. Then as you go south from there the odds become more difficult.

We'll see what happens!

This was my opening post of the thread. It's important to note why tonight's system will not be high end. First off, the jet streak is too far south.

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Too much H5 energy is held back...

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And the split flow pattern became more anomalous, allowing the High to our north to drift further south and suppress the MSLP.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Jan 14, 2017 8:29 am

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Post by rb924119 Sat Jan 14, 2017 11:00 am

Just gonna put this in here, as I did it for my Facebook page:

Expect a few light showers of various precipitation types, depending on your location, through early afternoon, before the "brunt" of this system begins working into the region. Everything should wrap up between about 5-6pm for northwestern zones, and 10pm-12am Sunday for far southeastern zones. Mainly light precipitation is expected through this entire event, although there could be a few bursts of more moderate precipitation rates later this afternoon and into this evening.

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