01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions
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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions
Frank_Wx wrote:The GEFS have a stripe of 6" from central PA to NEPA to NWNJ. Most importantly, they continue to be more robust than the OP GFS. And with the EURO looking pretty good, that raises my confidence of at least a light accumulation to 60%.
Did that spread into NYC and LI?
aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions
NWS Upton:
"A frontal wave then passes south of the area Saturday night into Sunday morning. Vertical temperature profiles support a light snow event with 1 to 2 inches possible at this time. This is a weak, fast moving system with not much potential to be anything more than an advisory level event."
"A frontal wave then passes south of the area Saturday night into Sunday morning. Vertical temperature profiles support a light snow event with 1 to 2 inches possible at this time. This is a weak, fast moving system with not much potential to be anything more than an advisory level event."
aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions
Where did everyone go about this storm for the weekend?
HEATMISER- Posts : 62
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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions
I was wondering why it was so quiet, and then I checked Upton's morning update ...
The next chance of precipitation comes, late Saturday and Saturday night as a wave of low pressure passes south of the region. Precipitation with this event will be all snow with cold temperatures profiles over the region. There are some indications in the 00Z forecast guidance showing the high building far enough south to keep parts of the CWA dry though this period. Not quite ready to go completely dry this weekend, but will limit pops to chance. This will be a low QPF event, so no significant accumulations are expected.
The next chance of precipitation comes, late Saturday and Saturday night as a wave of low pressure passes south of the region. Precipitation with this event will be all snow with cold temperatures profiles over the region. There are some indications in the 00Z forecast guidance showing the high building far enough south to keep parts of the CWA dry though this period. Not quite ready to go completely dry this weekend, but will limit pops to chance. This will be a low QPF event, so no significant accumulations are expected.
essexcountypete- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions
It seems most of the H5 upper air energy is looking to stay west, and only a small piece from the Pacific tracks east. When the energy is as weak as currently modeled, it will not be enough to develop a strong surface low pressure system. What we're left is a weak wave. However, I still think light accumulations are possible. 3-6" is still the ceiling for this event.
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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions
Models have trended South with the event for this weekend however ensembles still show some support for a more Northerly solution and some snow into our area. With the way this winter has been going I would expect a northward shift. don't expect a big event 1 to 3 inch still seems possible
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions
joe coffi has his first snow map for sat night so far he has city longisland northern jersey a coating of snow with more to the south of jersey thats 1 to 2 inches please tell me it will go up i will be happy with 2 to 4 inches
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions
Well, this threat did not go quite as expected. Hardly looking at any accumulations on latest model runs. The upper energy is too weak. Too much is being held back in the west.
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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions
big shift north with the 18z gfs and 00z nam. now lets see if it can trend stronger...algae888 wrote:Models have trended South with the event for this weekend however ensembles still show some support for a more Northerly solution and some snow into our area. With the way this winter has been going I would expect a northward shift. don't expect a big event 1 to 3 inch still seems possible
00z
18z
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions
0z NAM and 0z GFS are both well north. However the precip is still quite light.
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions
Yeah this really did trend crappy. We will see if thing change with the s/r models but ehh for now.
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions
What's the timeframe on this event Saturday or sunday
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions
It did Scott but you guys were right there's going to be a 3 to 6 inch swath of snow somewhere between DC and Philly hopefully that can shift North the next day or sosroc4 wrote:Yeah this really did trend crappy. We will see if thing change with the s/r models but ehh for now.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions
0z NAM came north and wetter again haha.
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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions
Even if it coats the ground at CPK, the Conservancy will record a trace of snow. Facts.
Math23x7- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions
Math23x7 wrote:Even if it coats the ground at CPK, the Conservancy will record a trace of snow. Facts.
And if they do, and let's be real they will, we will continue to fight them after every snowfall.
I've instructed my wife and kids to write on my tombstone.
"Here lies CP Cantmeasuresnow 1961-????"
"He probably would have lived another 30 years"
"If that ahole the zookeeper didn't torment him for 30+ winters"
"Only to be finished off by the incompetents at the Conservancy"
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Math23x7 wrote:Even if it coats the ground at CPK, the Conservancy will record a trace of snow. Facts.
And if they do, and let's be real they will, we will continue to fight them after every snowfall.
I've instructed my wife and kids to write on my tombstone.
"Here lies CP Cantmeasuresnow 1961-????"
"He probably would have lived another 30 years"
"If that ahole the zookeeper didn't torment him for 30+ winters"
"Only to be finished off by the incompetents at the Conservancy"
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions
Wow nam 1-2" for tom. night
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions
rgem also 1-2". nws forecast is dry after todays 12z runs.
rgem
4k nam
rgem
4k nam
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions
Yet again short range guidance appears to score a coup as now ALL 00z guidance tonight is trending significantly further north and wetter for tomorrow's event. Looks like a coating-2" event for most along and north of I-78 and along and south of I-84 based on the modeling, but would not be surprised to see that get upped relativepy substantially over night tonight.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions
What IS it with north of I-84 anyway and snow?
dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions
dkodgis wrote:What IS it with north of I-84 anyway and snow?
Idk, man, although we haven't done too poorly this year, comparitively lol did one of forget to make our annual sacrifice to the Pagan Snow God??? I'll bet that's what it is lmao
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions
I know, right? Really it is surprising how I-84 is the cutoff. Like it has some magical properties around the time-space continuum.
dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions
Frank_Wx wrote:Another active of week of tracking is expected as models are hinting at a possible winter storm next weekend. Cold air is expected to hang around through Tuesday this week. By Wednesday, we warm up considerably into the 50's and the mild air persists through Friday. Once we get to Saturday, cold air is modeled to sweep through our area thanks to a series of Canadian High Pressure systems working their way through south-central and southeastern Canada.
The upper level pattern next weekend shows a few interesting features:
1. A split-flow in the western U.S. as a closed 500mb vort digs into the SW CONUS. A ridge builds over western Canada ahead of another closed 500mb vort over Alaska.
2. A ridge building in the north-central Atlantic with positive height anomalies trying to poke into Greenland, or the NAO domain.
3. Extremely zonal flow from southern Canada into the Northeast U.S. The pressure gradients between the HP's to our north and the strong SE Ridge will allow waves of low pressure to develop and track toward our area.
Today's EURO showed a mixed bag winter storm. What's key to this forecast will be the HP to our north. A strong HP located in SE Canada should put us under a NNE flow which would take the cold air in Canada and drive it southward into our area. But if it's further north, or weaker, the SE Ridge will overpower it and the wind flow will turn from the south, allowing our temperatures to warm up and keep precipitation in the form of rain.
This is the type of forecast that could produce VERY heavy snowfall rates as long as you have the cold air. Warm air riding into a cold air source promotes vertical motion which enhances precipitation rates. In my experience, I've seen these types of storms produce thunder-snow as well. The cold and warm air battle each other and our atmosphere responds in an explosive manner. Of course, we need a few things to go right for us in order for the baroclinic zone (normally the area where the 0*C 850mb isotherm divides) to stay south of us. Naturally, areas N&W of NYC have a REALLY good shot of seeing a high end snowfall. This includes NEPA. Then as you go south from there the odds become more difficult.
We'll see what happens!
This was my opening post of the thread. It's important to note why tonight's system will not be high end. First off, the jet streak is too far south.
Too much H5 energy is held back...
And the split flow pattern became more anomalous, allowing the High to our north to drift further south and suppress the MSLP.
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skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions
Just gonna put this in here, as I did it for my Facebook page:
Expect a few light showers of various precipitation types, depending on your location, through early afternoon, before the "brunt" of this system begins working into the region. Everything should wrap up between about 5-6pm for northwestern zones, and 10pm-12am Sunday for far southeastern zones. Mainly light precipitation is expected through this entire event, although there could be a few bursts of more moderate precipitation rates later this afternoon and into this evening.
Expect a few light showers of various precipitation types, depending on your location, through early afternoon, before the "brunt" of this system begins working into the region. Everything should wrap up between about 5-6pm for northwestern zones, and 10pm-12am Sunday for far southeastern zones. Mainly light precipitation is expected through this entire event, although there could be a few bursts of more moderate precipitation rates later this afternoon and into this evening.
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