01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions

@skinsfan1177 wrote:Does anyone have pdII snow maps?

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-content/snow-and-ice/rsi/nesis/20030215-20030218-7.50.jpg

PDII is not an identical match, but it's also not too far off. I'm not sure I would use it as an analog, because the global pattern is mildly different for our potential event versus then, but over the CONUS it's eerily similar. I haven't done much analog forecasting, and I honestly don't like to use analogs for particular events, so maybe others who have/do want to weigh in. Personally, I wouldn't use it, but again, I don't do much (if any) analog forecasting.

7 days out aren't we get a bit ahead ourselves. We had a lot early frustration with the past one. I myself an not gping to go hot damn till maybe thurs or fri if things get more interesting. Of cpurse who am I kidding if anyone gets hyped on her I'll prolly follow suit.

@jmanley32 wrote:7 days out aren't we get a bit ahead ourselves. We had a lot early frustration with the past one. I myself an not gping to go hot damn till maybe thurs or fri if things get more interesting. Of cpurse who am I kidding if anyone gets hyped on her I'll prolly follow suit.

I'm not forecasting anything

The big difference between this set-up and PDII that jumps out at me (and feel free to correct me), is that in Feb 2003 the High pressure that set up to our north was pumping very cold air down here. High temps in the 2 or 3 days before that storm were in the low 20s (I think teens one day). In this setup we'll be in the 50s until Friday and the upper 30s/low 40s Sat.

Just to set the record straight, I wasn't proclaiming a major snowstorm next weekend. I was only pointing out that next weekends setup has similarities to the presidents day snowstorm of 2003.

@nutleyblizzard wrote:Just to set the record straight, I wasn't proclaiming a major snowstorm next weekend. I was only pointing out that next weekends setup has similarities to the presidents day snowstorm of 2003.

Nobody was proclaiming anything, nor forecasting any such event. As far as I understood we were all just having a discussion about the potential of a wintry event.

GEFS continues to look good for NYC north in regards to the cold air and the moisture

I'm sure I've said it before, PDII was one of my all time favorite storms- long duration of heavy snow and white out conditions. Wasn't that an El-nino year? Unlike this year? If there is a set up any where close to that storm, i will be psyched!! Anyway, my neighbors on both sides of me were away on vacation, and i was watching their houses. We received 22.5" of snow- and I had the joy of digging out 3 houses! Had a blast though, and my kids were 9 & 11, great time!

@Frank_Wx wrote:Euro Control

I'm signing on the dotted line!!! Bring it on!

NWS sniffing something too, already 30% chance of snow Sat night-Sun.

@Frank_Wx wrote:

@jmanley32 wrote:7 days out aren't we get a bit ahead ourselves. We had a lot early frustration with the past one. I myself an not gping to go hot damn till maybe thurs or fri if things get more interesting. Of cpurse who am I kidding if anyone gets hyped on her I'll prolly follow suit.

I'm not forecasting anything

huh? Sorry not try sound rude but when in this paragraph did I say u were forecasting anything? I know your only watching the period. Some people are already getting excited at the potential that's all I was saying. I think I misunderstood some posts and mine was misunderstood . No biggie just saying anything related to presidents day storm is enpugh to spark some attention.

@docstox12 wrote:

@Frank_Wx wrote:Euro Control

I'm signing on the dotted line!!!  Bring it on!

NWS sniffing something too, already 30% chance of snow Sat night-Sun.

Nws is usually sniffing something lol sorry u left that wide open lol. Not knocking them they do what they do well but tgat was too hard to pass up.

@billg315 wrote:The big difference between this set-up and PDII that jumps out at me (and feel free to correct me), is that in Feb 2003 the High pressure that set up to our north was pumping very cold air down here. High temps in the 2 or 3 days before that storm were in the low 20s (I think teens one day). In this setup we'll be in the 50s until Friday and the upper 30s/low 40s Sat.

The cold air was around not just the days before the storm, a week and a half before the storm. In fact, there was a snow event nine days before PDII on 2/7/03. Here are the temperatures from 2/6 to 2/17 in 2003 for CPK:

2/6: 32/21
2/7: 33/24 (5.3" in CPK)
2/8: 29/19
2/9: 36/22
2/10: 37/31
2/11: 32/15
2/12: 33/21
2/13: 24/17
2/14: 30/15
2/15: 30/13
2/16: 15/8 (event started in the early evening hours)
2/17: 26/14 (President's Day; the brunt of the storm)

What blows is that there was a rapid warmup after the event:

2/18: 34/23
2/19: 41/29
2/20: 50/36
2/21: 50/34
2/22: 42/36 (with 1.49" of soaking rain)
2/23: 44/30 (with 0.54" of soaking rain)

And then the cold came back with bare ground...

Although I have a different perspective of PDII: My immediate family consists of me, my three siblings, and two parents. That weekend, all six of us got sick, the one time the entire family was sick in a short period of time. I was the least sick out of all of them, but as a result, was asked to shovel a chunk of the deep snow. Being 12 years old, 4'11" and weighing 75 pounds, it wasn't pretty (though today, I'm 26, 5'11" and 125 pounds). Fortunately, we had a snowblower which my father used to clear the sidewalk, which he used despite his ailments (Who knows, maybe I would have done all the shoveling had we not had a snowblower). The next day, our block was not plowed, and me and my father, who felt a bit better by that point, took a hike to the CVS and Met Food (now Foodtown) on Jericho Turnpike to get some milk and Pedialyte for the rest of the sick family.

The meltdown was fully underway on the 20th. I remember eating out at the Friendly's in New Hyde Park (which has since closed, replaced by Panera) and remember seeing quite a bit of slush and puddles in the vicinity.

I know a lot of places in the area received well over 20" of snow from this. When I learned that CPK had measured 19.8" I was stunned that it was that low. 14 years later, we're still dealing with that same issue. SMH....

Thanks for the data Mike. That's about what I recall. I fear that anything coming in this Saturday stands a good chance of being rain or a quick snow-to-sleet-to rain changeover. But then again who the heck knows, it's 6 days off.

@Math23x7 wrote:

@billg315 wrote:The big difference between this set-up and PDII that jumps out at me (and feel free to correct me), is that in Feb 2003 the High pressure that set up to our north was pumping very cold air down here. High temps in the 2 or 3 days before that storm were in the low 20s (I think teens one day). In this setup we'll be in the 50s until Friday and the upper 30s/low 40s Sat.

The cold air was around not just the days before the storm, a week and a half before the storm.  In fact, there was a snow event nine days before PDII on 2/7/03.  Here are the temperatures from 2/6 to 2/17 in 2003 for CPK:

2/6: 32/21
2/7: 33/24 (5.3" in CPK)
2/8: 29/19
2/9: 36/22
2/10: 37/31
2/11: 32/15
2/12: 33/21
2/13: 24/17
2/14: 30/15
2/15: 30/13
2/16: 15/8 (event started in the early evening hours)
2/17: 26/14 (President's Day; the brunt of the storm)

What blows is that there was a rapid warmup after the event:

2/18: 34/23
2/19: 41/29
2/20: 50/36
2/21: 50/34
2/22: 42/36 (with 1.49" of soaking rain)
2/23: 44/30 (with 0.54" of soaking rain)

And then the cold came back with bare ground...

Although I have a different perspective of PDII:  My immediate family consists of me, my three siblings, and two parents.  That weekend, all six of us got sick, the one time the entire family was sick in a short period of time.  I was the least sick out of all of them, but as a result, was asked to shovel a chunk of the deep snow.  Being 12 years old, 4'11" and weighing 75 pounds, it wasn't pretty (though today, I'm 26, 5'11" and 125 pounds).  Fortunately, we had a snowblower which my father used to clear the sidewalk, which he used despite his ailments (Who knows, maybe I would have done all the shoveling had we not had a snowblower).  The next day, our block was not plowed, and me and my father, who felt a bit better by that point, took a hike to the CVS and Met Food (now Foodtown) on Jericho Turnpike to get some milk and Pedialyte for the rest of the sick family.

The meltdown was fully underway on the 20th.  I remember eating out at the Friendly's in New Hyde Park (which has since closed, replaced by Panera) and remember seeing quite a bit of slush and puddles in the vicinity.

I know a lot of places in the area received well over 20" of snow from this.  When I learned that CPK had measured 19.8" I was stunned that it was that low.  14 years later, we're still dealing with that same issue.  SMH....

Great stats Mike.

I don't have my stats from that year but the number 28 sticks out for me because I really wanted to hit 30 inches and fell 2 inches short.

Amazing that numbers people can recall so many ridiculous under counts of snowfall in NYC, this weekend just being the latest in a long line of carelessness.

I was having a conversation with Uncle W on American forum today about this, who also is the best weather stat historian I've ever encountered hands down, and he said and I quote, "It's a disgrace that NYC snowfall records have been handled almost since the begining of record keeping by mostly incompetent non professionals who could care less on ever getting it right"

I couldn't have said it any better.

I am really having a hard time remembering the PD storm in 2003, I know I was in college in Hartford CT at the time, I do recall a big snowstorm in my junior year but I am not sure if it was that, was there anything big storm in 2003 or just that one?

@jmanley32 wrote:I am really having a hard time remembering the PD storm in 2003, I know I was in college in Hartford CT at the time, I do recall a big snowstorm in my junior year but I am not sure if it was that, was there anything big storm in 2003 or just that one?

12/5/02
12/25/02
2/7/03
2/17/03
3/6/03
4/7/03

49.3" total at CPK even though it should have definitely been over 50" but then again the zookeeper was in control of the measurements.

@Math23x7 wrote:

@jmanley32 wrote:I am really having a hard time remembering the PD storm in 2003, I know I was in college in Hartford CT at the time, I do recall a big snowstorm in my junior year but I am not sure if it was that, was there anything big storm in 2003 or just that one?

12/5/02
12/25/02
2/7/03
2/17/03
3/6/03
4/7/03

49.3" total at CPK even though it should have definitely been over 50" but then again the zookeeper was in control of the measurements.

I remember it was 2003, after January and I was trudging through waist deep drifts, that had to be the PD storm no? Also had hard time getting out of our complex because of drifted shut doors.

@Math23x7 wrote:

@jmanley32 wrote:I am really having a hard time remembering the PD storm in 2003, I know I was in college in Hartford CT at the time, I do recall a big snowstorm in my junior year but I am not sure if it was that, was there anything big storm in 2003 or just that one?

12/5/02
12/25/02
2/7/03
2/17/03
3/6/03
4/7/03

49.3" total at CPK even though it should have definitely been over 50" but then again the zookeeper was in control of the measurements.

12/25/02 is my all-time favorite storm hands down, bar none.

(Sorry, I put this in the wrong thread, trying to delete, but can't figure out how.)

In searching for a snowfall map for NJ, I found a recap of the X's and O's of what happened yesterday. Thought some of you might find this interesting/informative. I caught the gist of it all, but some of it was over my head. Also, I have no way of knowing how accurate it is. Some of the coastal totals on the map are pretty funny though.

https://nynjpaweather.com/snow-fall-analysis-for-january-7-2017/

Wow this storm is a week away and has it's own Thread?

I gotta stock up on some beer this week going to be a long one track it.

#readysetgo!!

Jersey shore folk you had your storm NOW SHARE THE WHITE GOLD - it ain't your storm yet you rain and accept it. Late JAN through Feb we will rock.

Models are thinking this could be more of an ice concern rather than snow. Will have a better update later tonight.

@billg315 wrote:Thanks for the data Mike. That's about what I recall. I fear that anything coming in this Saturday stands a good chance of being rain or a quick snow-to-sleet-to rain changeover. But then again who the heck knows, it's 6 days off.

I disagree. I'm no expert but if the high pressure in Quebec is as strong as currently modeled any changeover would be going the other way. From rain to mix to snow, not vice-versa.