01/14 Light Snow Observations & Discussions

Here is the GFS 7am-1pm on Sunday. Notice the High to the north. It's snowing over our area.





Then Wave 2 moves in on Monday. The HP shifts to our Northeast and there is NOT another one coming in behind it. This gives the SE Ridge room to flex and bring in mild temps.



It looks like there is 2 waves again. One on Sunday and another on Monday. This could move up to Saturday and Sunday. We'll see how this progresses during the week.

FWIW this far out the NWS has the HP so strong over the NYS/Canadian border on the weekend, that the precip is mostly suppressed south.

Fwiw regarding ice issue accuwx has ice on sat and sat night a quarter inch eek.

@jmanley32 wrote:Fwiw regarding ice issue accuwx has ice on sat and sat night a quarter inch eek.

wow, ice is a big no no lol

I will have to keep a close eye on this. Heading to Boston Saturday morning and coming back Monday afternoon. That high pressure to the north seems pretty strong. Hope it keeps the precip down here for all of you and leaves me alone in Boston.

Euro looks good today for New York City metro 4 to 6 inches. GFS weaker CMC suppressed

Euro def had a nice look to it in the upper and mid levels too. Should be a fun one to track. I may do a write up looking at the set up tomorrow if someone doesn't beat me to it. I like these set ups.

@sroc4 wrote:Euro def had a nice look to it in the upper and mid levels too.  Should be a fun one to track.  I may do a write up looking at the set up tomorrow if someone doesn't beat me to it.  I like these set ups.

these set ups look great for north of nyc! should be a fun last few days

The trend so far is snow Sunday from wave 1 and rain Monday from wave 2. Wave 1 could be snow to rain for southern areas.

@Frank_Wx wrote:The trend so far is snow Sunday from wave 1 and rain Monday from wave 2. Wave 1 could be snow to rain for southern areas.

Now there's waves rather than one consolidated system? Doesn't this limit our chances at getting a "big storm"?

That HP is huge in this set up - and can we get one to fall on a Sunday into Monday??
Anyway IF we get the energy to eject fast out of the SW then we could see bigger snows but that is a BIG IF.
Need this depiction through Friday with a stronger JET off the split flow and tap some of that juicy GOM.
There is going to be a sleet/snow line here and my guess as I have seen in the past with such storms is a take a line basically juts south of I 80 and followed it out through Jersey and east somewhat though I think the South of LI (split it in half) is the same as the SE ridge is pumping.

How does Euro look for Hudson Valley peeps?

@SoulSingMG wrote:

@Frank_Wx wrote:The trend so far is snow Sunday from wave 1 and rain Monday from wave 2. Wave 1 could be snow to rain for southern areas.

Models are holding energy back. If it does not eject, like Mugsy said, this will come in waves and there likely will not be a big storm.

Now there's waves rather than one consolidated system? Doesn't this limit our chances at getting a "big storm"?

@hyde345 wrote:How does Euro look for Hudson Valley peeps?

Looked like 3 to 6 inches

@Frank_Wx wrote:

@SoulSingMG wrote:

@Frank_Wx wrote:The trend so far is snow Sunday from wave 1 and rain Monday from wave 2. Wave 1 could be snow to rain for southern areas.

Models are holding energy back. If it does not eject, like Mugsy said, this will come in waves and there likely will not be a big storm.

Now there's waves rather than one consolidated system? Doesn't this limit our chances at getting a "big storm"?

@hyde345 wrote:How does Euro look for Hudson Valley peeps?

Looked like 3 to 6 inches

Thank you.

Do I have reason to worry that the high pressure will keep the precip field too far south for me to benefit from what's looking like a fairly promising situation?

@TheAresian wrote:Do I have reason to worry that the high pressure will keep the precip field too far south for me to benefit from what's looking like a fairly promising situation?

Suppression is always a possibility with such a strong high pressure. Also the energy coming from the southwest could end up very weak and washed out. So there's two things we need to watch. Specifically to your question I wouldn't be overly concerned with suppression this year with such a formidable South East Ridge
Edit I was just looking at your location how far away from New York City are you?

@hyde345 wrote:How does Euro look for Hudson Valley peeps?

Look very good 15-18mm on the ukie 4-7" at this stage - dont shoot me if it does not

@algae888 wrote:

@TheAresian wrote:Do I have reason to worry that the high pressure will keep the precip field too far south for me to benefit from what's looking like a fairly promising situation?

Suppression is always a possibility with such a strong high pressure. Also the energy coming from the southwest could end up very weak and washed out. So there's two things we need to watch. Specifically to your question I wouldn't be overly concerned with suppression this year with such a formidable South East Ridge

On thin g to keep in mind is yes we would all love a big system comig out and passing south and deepening, but IMO that isnt what we want. A stronger system will amplify the ridge out in front and cut it west. The weaker waves is what we want as we will have the baroclinically enhanced snow totals, that will not be seen this far out. Trust me if the euro happened verbatim totals would likely be higher in baroclinically enhanced front o genesis.

@amugs wrote:

@hyde345 wrote:How does Euro look for Hudson Valley peeps?

Look very good 15-18mm on the ukie 4-7" at this stage - dont shoot me if it does not

Thanks mugs. I won't hold you to it. I just can't view euro or ukie.

have to get teh maps off Meteocenter these are over showing 4-7"

Does anyone have snow maps for euro so we can see what areas are show 3 to 6.

@algae888 wrote:

@TheAresian wrote:Do I have reason to worry that the high pressure will keep the precip field too far south for me to benefit from what's looking like a fairly promising situation?

Suppression is always a possibility with such a strong high pressure. Also the energy coming from the southwest could end up very weak and washed out. So there's two things we need to watch. Specifically to your question I wouldn't be overly concerned with suppression this year with such a formidable South East Ridge
Edit I was just looking at your location how far away from New York City are you?

I'm about 70 miles west of Binghamton or about 250 miles NW of NYC.

@TheAresian wrote:

@algae888 wrote:

@TheAresian wrote:Do I have reason to worry that the high pressure will keep the precip field too far south for me to benefit from what's looking like a fairly promising situation?

Suppression is always a possibility with such a strong high pressure. Also the energy coming from the southwest could end up very weak and washed out. So there's two things we need to watch. Specifically to your question I wouldn't be overly concerned with suppression this year with such a formidable South East Ridge
Edit I was just looking at your location how far away from New York City are you?

I'm about 70 miles west of Binghamton or about 250 miles NW of NYC.

at this time suppression may be an issue for you with wave one, however you should have snow and sleet Tuesday and better shot at frozen with the second wave around Monday.

@jmanley32 wrote:Does anyone have snow maps for euro so we can see what areas are show 3 to 6.

here ya go jon...

JNaps I answered your question in the banter thread