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January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm

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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 18, 2017 7:34 am

@rb924119 wrote:I said this earlier to Al; of all of the operationals, I like its overall depiction of the evolution of H5 best. Anything regarding more detail than that with a setup like this this far out is playing with Fire, ESPECIALLY with operational runs. That said, it's great to gawk at and dream. Remember, I did mention the Blizzard of 1888 lmfao Wink Wink Wink

Since we are in the 5-7day time frame, and since its looking more likely that this system 23rd-25th will have some sort of impact on our area, I am giving it its own thread. There will likely be a lot of discussion on this system, but I don't want the LR discussion on the upcoming pattern change to get swallowed by the discussion of this system.   

With our cold air sources not yet in place, in order to get snow out of this time frame, 23rd-25th, we need to generate it.  To do this we need a well timed H5 to close off south of us (not too soon or not too late, baby bear...just right) on a NE trajectory that takes a closed H5 S&E of LI.  

Without question we need to watch this one to trend colder over time.  Why??  Yes I am going to quote myself from Jan 9th again:

"IF we get a significant enough SOI crash , on the order of -15 to -20 or lower for a few days, expect a favorable MJO pulse, the result of which would likely lead to a trough and potentially a snow threat about 5-7days later."


Well here we go folks!  The crash begins. Timing couldn't be more perfect to test this theory.  Once again IF we get a few more days where the SOI looks like this I would absolutely expect this thing to trend stronger and colder.  Just like the last storm that had us guessing until 24hrs out, with so much vorticity involved it is going to take many more days to sort through it all in the modeling.  This system will be one of two big balls of upper level energy that sets us up for the more favorable pattern that we all have been discussing headed into late Jan and Feb so anything we can get is bonus with this system.  Nothing is guaranteed

January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm Soi11
January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm NCPE_BC_phase_21m_small
January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_small


Last edited by sroc4 on Wed Jan 18, 2017 8:23 am; edited 1 time in total

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Jan 18, 2017 7:58 am

Thanks Scott for explaining!! going to be interesting to watch..
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 18, 2017 8:03 am

Good Morning -

I want to briefly talk about the storm potential next week. Models agree a very strong closed 500mb vortivity will enter the CONUS this weekend and slowly track toward the Gulf. Keep in mind, when 500mb is closed off rather than an open wave, the surface low tends to be stronger because of the dynamics of the wind fields from different layers of our atmosphere.

January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm EURO

EURO H5 shows the closed 500mb vort tapping into the Gulf Sunday afternoon. Heavy moisture is gathering in the Southeast and a mild flow is streaming into the Northeast ahead of this vort. Most of the time, when tracking Nor'easters, these 500mb vorts do not form until they're closer to our latitude as the northern and southern streams phase. However, the sub tropical jet stream energy is so strong it decides to close off over the Southeast. Technically, this is a Sou'easter that will be tracking northward.

January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm Gfs_h5

The GFS H5 anomalies show the same thing as the EURO with a large closed vort over the Gulf, but this map does a good job showing the block in SE Canada. The block will slow the flow down so what we're left with his a slow moving surface low tracking North-Northeast.

January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm UL_jet

The STJ is very potent and will fuel this system to deepen sub 990mb, possibly sub 980mb.

January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm Pwat

Check out the fetch off the Atlantic. PWAT is running high which further suggests rainfall rates will be of the moderate to heavy variety. That type of rainfall over a 2-day stretch will result in flooding.

January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm Gfs_east_wind

January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm EURO_wind

At minimum, both GFS and EURO are advertising Tropical Storm force winds. Those types of winds coupled with the heavy rain will cause power outages.

What's key is figuring out the exact track of the surface low. If it tracks off our coast, it has a chance to pull in cold air towards the coast and change rain over to snow for portions of PA and those N&W of NYC. I remain confident immediate NYC Metro will not see any snow from this, even if the low tracked off the coast. If the low tracks inland, it will stream the heaviest rain over our area and bring about flooding and the highest winds. Where the closed 500mb low tracks is what we'll have to watch in the coming days.

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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 18, 2017 8:22 am

LOL Of course Frank. We were both hard at work at the exact same time.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 18, 2017 8:24 am

Now u have narrowed it down to the 22nd and 23rd would u guys recommend I not go on my trip sun returning monday afternoon? It's about a 300 mile round trip to eastern ct.
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Post by Guest Wed Jan 18, 2017 8:26 am

Am I reading the map correctly when I ask if the 06z GFS has high pressure sliding south/southeast and pushing the closed low out to sea in the Carolinas?

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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 18, 2017 8:31 am

Wow Frank that PW map you posted is quite impressive.  One fetch streaming in from the Central Atlantic, but holy smokes, look at the fetch originating in the Tropics.  It extends all the way down into the Caribbean.  This is one reason why the warm air will be challenging to overcome; esp along the coastal plain.   But again if we can get a delay in when H5closes off(which is a key if we want to see snow), and get a perfect surface LP track we might get snow to fall N&W.  I wouldn't entirely R/O the coast just yet, but very unlikely based on the modeling and overall set up.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 18, 2017 8:33 am

Frank u said at minimum ts force winds on gfs and euro does this have the potential to reach higher levels than that?! I guess I won't make any changes to my trip plans till fri or sat.
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Post by Guest Wed Jan 18, 2017 8:40 am

What could you guys POSSIBLY be excited about. This could be IMHO the most frustrating weather event EVER. A sub 980 LP tracking SLOWLY over the BM in late January causing HEAVY RAIN over 2 days. GFS Model GFS Model GFS Model GFS Model Tired Mad Tired Mad Tired Mad

Cmon now.....

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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 18, 2017 8:40 am

@TheAresian wrote:Am I reading the map correctly when I ask if the 06z GFS has high pressure sliding south/southeast and pushing the closed low out to sea in the Carolinas?

To a certain degree yes. The 6z verbatim shows the upper level ridge so potent it forces the 500mb closed ULL to the south. Surface map shows the primary trying to cut; then transfers off the SC coast then heads E NE from there. We still have some impacts as per the 6z verbatim but they are minimized by this soln.

January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm Gfs_z500a_us_25
January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm Gfs_z500a_us_26
January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm Gfs_z500a_us_27

January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_23
January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_24
January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 18, 2017 8:42 am

Another problem I see with this storm is wave spacing with the next system. Its too close to the next one, which is already raising heights and drawing up warm air in front of it. We need better spacing if we want to have a chance to drag in anyh kind of cold air.


January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm Gfs_z500_vort_us_26

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 18, 2017 8:46 am

syosnow94 wrote:What could you guys POSSIBLY be excited about.  This could be IMHO the most frustrating weather event EVER.  A sub 980 LP tracking SLOWLY over the BM in late January causing HEAVY RAIN over 2 days. GFS Model GFS Model GFS Model GFS Model Tired Mad Tired Mad Tired Mad

Cmon now.....

Remember Jimmy, this is not supposed to be a frozen event. There are a few ways this can trend colder and possible end up as a wintery event for someone, but temper your expectations bud. This and the next one are the high impact storms that are the set up storms for what your looking for. Think of it this way. Rain now...Snow later. Without this system, and the next, you wont get what your looking for. This now gives you a reason to love this storm. geek LOVE IT!!

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Guest Wed Jan 18, 2017 8:51 am

sroc4 I get it I do, and I NEVER expected this to be a wintry event but.........................At this time of year to possibly have an epic storm with a track like is being shown and that much QPF. is BEYOND frustrating for a snow lover PERIOD. I don't care about after when the NOW could be epic at the perfect time of year in the perfect spot.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 18, 2017 8:57 am

Do you guys realize this is happening bout the same day one year ago to the blizzard!
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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 18, 2017 9:00 am

syosnow94 wrote:sroc4 I get it I do, and I NEVER expected this to be a wintry event but.........................At this time of year to possibly have an epic storm with a track like is being shown and that much QPF. is BEYOND frustrating for a snow lover PERIOD.  I don't care about after when the NOW could be epic at the perfect time of year in the perfect spot.


God grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change....


_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Guest Wed Jan 18, 2017 9:03 am

@sroc4 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:sroc4 I get it I do, and I NEVER expected this to be a wintry event but.........................At this time of year to possibly have an epic storm with a track like is being shown and that much QPF. is BEYOND frustrating for a snow lover PERIOD.  I don't care about after when the NOW could be epic at the perfect time of year in the perfect spot.


God grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change....


That made me laugh sroc4. Namaste Wink Wink

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 18, 2017 9:04 am

@sroc4 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:sroc4 I get it I do, and I NEVER expected this to be a wintry event but.........................At this time of year to possibly have an epic storm with a track like is being shown and that much QPF. is BEYOND frustrating for a snow lover PERIOD.  I don't care about after when the NOW could be epic at the perfect time of year in the perfect spot.


God grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change....


The serenity prayer, can and does work if you really listen to it when you say it.
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Post by Guest Wed Jan 18, 2017 10:26 am

@jmanley32 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:sroc4 I get it I do, and I NEVER expected this to be a wintry event but.........................At this time of year to possibly have an epic storm with a track like is being shown and that much QPF. is BEYOND frustrating for a snow lover PERIOD.  I don't care about after when the NOW could be epic at the perfect time of year in the perfect spot.


God grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change....


The serenity prayer, can and does work if you really listen to it when you say it.

I know. But as a hard-working country music fan I prefer the PBR or Jack Daniels prayer.. Razz Razz

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Post by Grselig Wed Jan 18, 2017 10:28 am

So let me try to put some words in your mouth SROC. This massive rain and wind storm increases the chances of a HECS down the road. I will pay that price.
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Post by Armando Salvadore Wed Jan 18, 2017 10:36 am

Great analysis Scott and Frank. I was never really fond of much frozen precip forming from this anyway, but that SOI correlation is an interesting tidbit. It's also why i think next weekend offers a much better shot at snow since we'll be underway into the transition of the pattern change. Looks like we do enter into a clipper pattern as well beginning around the 26th.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Jan 18, 2017 11:20 am

This storm has potential to be devastating to coastal communities. So.e saying 92' as reference.January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm 587f9410
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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Jan 18, 2017 11:23 am

Wow we need this to go south and east.January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm 587f9310
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 18, 2017 11:27 am

@skinsfan1177 wrote:Wow we need this to go south and east.January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm 587f9310

No shot at snow. Unless you mean because you don't want the high winds concentrated over your area.

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 18, 2017 11:28 am

Today's 12z GFS, verbatim, would be pretty intense. Wowzers.

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 18, 2017 11:29 am

Total rain

January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm Gfs_apcpn_neus_29

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