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January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm

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Snow88
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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 19, 2017 11:08 am

NORTH AND WEST IS SNOWING BABAYYYYYYYYYYYYY!!!!!!!!!!!

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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Jan 19, 2017 11:10 am

@rb924119 wrote:NORTH AND WEST IS SNOWING BABAYYYYYYYYYYYYY!!!!!!!!!!!

Ugh if you're right as usual (minus the last storm Wink ) then it will be VERY bittersweet for those of us on the coast...
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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 19, 2017 11:12 am

Definitely Godzilla, possible roidzilla north and west!!!!

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Post by Grselig Thu Jan 19, 2017 11:16 am

How much north and west?
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Post by Grselig Thu Jan 19, 2017 11:16 am

Maps? Please Very Happy
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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 19, 2017 11:22 am

Sorry aha one sec

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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 19, 2017 11:25 am

January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm - Page 5 Screen54

And that's based on the algorithm of p-type, which was all kinds of strange in my opinion. I think given the overall setup, where you see accumulations, add a bit more

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 19, 2017 11:29 am

Rb I saw an aweful lot of frz on the gfs. I think that may b a big issue with part of this as wasn't first run to show that. Is it possible it does snow down to the coast or pretty close? I mean 12z gfs was not far off! What a change waiting on gull cmc run.
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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 19, 2017 11:34 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:HUGE IMPROVEMENT TO 12Z GFS!!!! WOW WOW WOW

Have you seen the latest SOI?  Wink

I have, indeed. Yeah, the signs have been there, and I think the modeling may finally be starting to catch on.

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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 19, 2017 11:35 am

@jmanley32 wrote:Rb I saw an aweful lot of frz on the gfs. I think that may b a big issue with part of this as wasn't first run to show that. Is it possible it does snow down to the coast or pretty close? I mean 12z gfs was not far off! What a change waiting on gull cmc run.

That's why I said the p-types and associated accumulations didn't look right. In a setup like this, you're either rain or snow, very thin division between the two; again, in my opinion.

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Post by algae888 Thu Jan 19, 2017 11:41 am

@rb924119 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Rb I saw an aweful lot of frz on the gfs. I think that may b a big issue with part of this as wasn't first run to show that. Is it possible it does snow down to the coast or pretty close? I mean 12z gfs was not far off! What a change waiting on gull cmc run.

That's why I said the p-types and associated accumulations didn't look right. In a setup like this, you're either rain or snow, very thin division between the two; again, in my opinion.
Agree no low-level cold air for freezing rain this is either snow or rain did you see the heavy pocket of snow in West Central New Jersey and West of Philly on the GFS if it comes down hard enough it can snow even with these marginal temperatures Dynamics at work by the way CMC a decent hit for Inland areas another tick or two and parts of the coast have to watch out
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 19, 2017 11:47 am

@algae888 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Rb I saw an aweful lot of frz on the gfs. I think that may b a big issue with part of this as wasn't first run to show that. Is it possible it does snow down to the coast or pretty close? I mean 12z gfs was not far off! What a change waiting on gull cmc run.

That's why I said the p-types and associated accumulations didn't look right. In a setup like this, you're either rain or snow, very thin division between the two; again, in my opinion.
Agree no low-level cold air for freezing rain this is either snow or rain did you see the heavy pocket of snow in West Central New Jersey and West of Philly on the GFS if it comes down hard enough it can snow even with these marginal temperatures Dynamics at work by the way CMC a decent hit for Inland areas another tick or tw6o and parts of the coast have to watch out
al the gfs was not far off from give us at least a mothrazilla. This would b such a better storm if it does turn out to b snow.
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Post by algae888 Thu Jan 19, 2017 11:49 am

Looking at the 850 it's real close they are +1 or +2 at the coast below zero Celsius inland. Haven't looked at 925 yet but they would probably be a little warmer but if we can get the 850s beliw 0 Celsius with the Dynamics at play it could snow down to the coast we're really not far away. Models have been having a tough time with the Block in Eastern Canada it's an anomalous block so you figure they would don't count this one out yet
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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 19, 2017 11:51 am

@algae888 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Rb I saw an aweful lot of frz on the gfs. I think that may b a big issue with part of this as wasn't first run to show that. Is it possible it does snow down to the coast or pretty close? I mean 12z gfs was not far off! What a change waiting on gull cmc run.

That's why I said the p-types and associated accumulations didn't look right. In a setup like this, you're either rain or snow, very thin division between the two; again, in my opinion.
Agree no low-level cold air for freezing rain this is either snow or rain did you see the heavy pocket of snow in West Central New Jersey and West of Philly on the GFS if it comes down hard enough it can snow even with these marginal temperatures Dynamics at work by the way CMC a decent hit for Inland areas another tick or two and parts of the coast have to watch out

Of course I did ahaha CMC looks fantabulous at H5 but completely out sync with its jet. Strange.

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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 19, 2017 11:54 am

@algae888 wrote:Looking at the 850 it's real close they are +1 or +2 at the coast below zero Celsius inland. Haven't looked at 925 yet but they would probably be a little warmer but if we can get the 850s beliw 0 Celsius with the Dynamics at play it could snow down to the coast we're really not far away. Models have been having a tough time with the Block in Eastern Canada it's an anomalous block so you figure they would don't count this one out yet

700 hPa becomes critical in this event too, depending on how H5 behaves.

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Post by aiannone Thu Jan 19, 2017 12:00 pm

WOW 12z GFS. This looks like it's becoming an interior snowstorm. Coast may have to watch out if it trends colder. With a strong deepening low, dynamics could take over and change precip over to a pasty wet snow. Will have to watch, but North and West of I-287 is looking good. Hopefully the westward extent will be enough to allow me to cash in in Binghamton.
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Post by jake732 Thu Jan 19, 2017 12:03 pm

Anyway this can trend cold enough for the jersey shore to see snow or this is about as cold as it will get??
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Post by Guest Thu Jan 19, 2017 12:03 pm

@aiannone wrote:WOW 12z GFS. This looks like it's becoming an interior snowstorm. Coast may have to watch out if it trends colder. With a strong deepening low, dynamics could take over and change precip over to a pasty wet snow. Will have to watch, but North and West of I-287 is looking good. Hopefully the westward extent will be enough to allow me to cash in in Binghamton.

GFS has pretty much taken me out of the picture. CMC still looks decent though. Looks like I'm singing "O Canada"at least until the next run.

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Post by amugs Thu Jan 19, 2017 12:46 pm

@jake732 wrote:Anyway this can trend cold enough for the jersey shore to see snow or this is about as cold as it will get??

Jake this is going to be are hard but never say never with such a strong LP. You have an easterly fetch and a warm wedge - you will need this S and E bu about 100 IMO to get this one to bring teh goods to teh coast. AS JB explained in a write up once the winds shift to NE then you get in the game. He is harping on a N of I 80 about 25 miles west of NYC along I 80 - Morris County/Passaic County border snowfall with teh possibility of much more N&W and crusher in the Mountains.

Saying need the 850's and 925's to crash hard which is possible.

I do not know if the GFS is right looks wacky to me - CMC has been on this one for days now and now teh UKIE is on board as the CMC


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Post by Guest Thu Jan 19, 2017 12:51 pm

@amugs wrote:
@jake732 wrote:Anyway this can trend cold enough for the jersey shore to see snow or this is about as cold as it will get??

Jake this is going to be are hard but never say never with such a strong LP. You have an easterly fetch and a warm wedge - you will need this S and E bu about 100 IMO to get this one to bring teh goods to teh coast. AS JB explained in a write up once the winds shift to NE then you get in the game. He is harping on a N of I 80 about 25 miles west of NYC along I 80 - Morris County/Passaic County border snowfall with teh possibility of much more N&W and crusher in the Mountains.

Saying need the 850's and 925's to crash hard which is possible.

I do not know if the GFS is right looks wacky to me - CMC has been on this one for days now and now teh UKIE is on board as the CMC


Forget JB. I said this 2 days ago!!!

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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 19, 2017 12:53 pm

Yeah CMC has, but I don't like the look of it's jet. Gonna be interesting for this Euro run, that's for sure!!

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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 19, 2017 12:54 pm

And mugs, where'd you find the Ukie out that far? Accuweather doesn't have it yet.....

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Post by amugs Thu Jan 19, 2017 1:09 pm

Well blow me over GEFS!!

January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm - Page 5 5880fd32a8774_gfsensemblemean.thumb.png.b50a21172d67fd538c00f412bef84f1e

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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 19, 2017 1:12 pm

I think the Euro is boutta show something cray. H5 looks sexy

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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 19, 2017 1:14 pm

Hour 84 ridge is cut off over Hudson Bay......oh boy

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