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January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm

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Post by weatherwatchermom Thu Jan 19, 2017 8:36 pm

@nutleyblizzard wrote:
@weatherwatchermom wrote:so quiet on here
Waiting for the 0z suite. Nam leads off in 30 minutes.

tx...I have no patience the last couple of days..as my son keeps telling me...lol...will check back in a bit
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Post by Grselig Thu Jan 19, 2017 8:38 pm

@nutleyblizzard wrote:
@weatherwatchermom wrote:so quiet on here
Waiting for the 0z suite. Nam leads off in 30 minutes.

I thought nam was in about 5 minutes? Let's go cold trend!
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 19, 2017 9:07 pm

@Grselig wrote:
@nutleyblizzard wrote:
@weatherwatchermom wrote:so quiet on here
Waiting for the 0z suite. Nam leads off in 30 minutes.

I thought nam was in about 5 minutes?    Let's go cold trend!

up to hr 27, this storm isnt fully in range yet.
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Post by billg315 Thu Jan 19, 2017 9:11 pm

Yeah, its not showing much thus far. Lets see what the next few hours show. The last GFS runs seemed to show the worst of it late Monday and Monday evening so we'll see whether the NAM follows that.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Jan 19, 2017 9:15 pm

January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm - Page 10 Ecmwf_10
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Post by billg315 Thu Jan 19, 2017 9:20 pm


That could be problematic. No hanging out at the beach Sunday and Monday.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Jan 19, 2017 9:24 pm

@billg315 wrote:

That could be problematic. No hanging out at the beach Sunday and Monday.

This is the biggest concern plus winds for the immediate coast. Beach erosion will be huge. I'll be working in it right at the beach. Point pleasant beach that is going to snap pictures
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Post by billg315 Thu Jan 19, 2017 9:34 pm

You'll be at ground zero for this. It doesn't take a lot to erode beaches. A regular nor'easter can do that. This could be twice as bad.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 19, 2017 9:42 pm

Ill be near new london CT, thats right at the entrance to LIS on Monday so ill try get down to beach to take some pics. I am pretty sure the winds will be strong pretty well inland too at least 25 miles or more, its a huge system ,but we do not have the beaches to worry about. Yonkers DT does flood from the hudson, during Sandy it was inundated.
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Post by Joe Snow Thu Jan 19, 2017 9:45 pm

So a major Nor'easter on the way and no cold air around........................Ugggg
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 19, 2017 9:50 pm

@Joe Snow wrote:So a major Nor'easter on the way and no cold air around........................Ugggg
Hey Joe long time no see. Not necessarily true, look back a few pages Euro had ome nice hits on the area.
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Post by billg315 Thu Jan 19, 2017 9:53 pm

Through hour 72 of the NAM it doesn't look like much cold air at least for the first wave of this system into Sunday evening. In fact it looks like it is taking the Low into the Ohio Valley instead of off the VA coast.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 19, 2017 9:55 pm

Winds are nasty starting late Sunday night wow, much earlier than other models.
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Post by amugs Thu Jan 19, 2017 9:56 pm

@Joe Snow wrote:So a major Nor'easter on the way and no cold air around........................Ugggg
Joe not an optimal set up. If we had a nice HP over N Maine on the coast say slowly moving NE then we rock. Nam Para is colder and is a crush job for epa and just s of I 84 and north from there.
Mobile can't post. 

Winds, rain, snow and storm surge going to be a problem, NE winds will crush the Jersey Shore with terrible beach erosion.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 19, 2017 9:57 pm

Hr, 84 theres a transfer of LP off the coast. The major problem with the winds is the super long duration, even if they verify say lower 40-50 rather than 55-65, a 15-24 hr period of gusts like that is gonna cause a lot problems.
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Post by Guest Thu Jan 19, 2017 10:00 pm

The NAM has the closed low in NC on 12z Monday while the 18z GFS has a much more elongated low over SC and GA. How much practical difference does that make and how might it manifest?

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 19, 2017 10:00 pm

00z NAM is odd, precip is over by 03z mon per simulated radar, unless that precip over the water moves into the area, this a totally diff run for the system.
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Post by billg315 Thu Jan 19, 2017 10:01 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Hr, 84 theres a transfer of LP off the coast. The major problem with the winds is the super long duration, even if they verify say lower 40-50 rather than 55-65, a 15-24 hr period of gusts like that is gonna cause a lot problems.

Yes, the Low over the Ohio Valley finally transfers some energy to a Low off the NC/VA coast and a little cold air starts to get into NE PA and maybe far NW NJ.
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Post by Guest Thu Jan 19, 2017 10:17 pm

Having a big storm like this coming in 3 days time and not having Frank or sroc4 posting about it is really weird!!! The silence is deafening.

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Post by billg315 Thu Jan 19, 2017 10:20 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:00z NAM is odd, precip is over by 03z mon per simulated radar, unless that precip over the water moves into the area, this a totally diff run for the system.

Well, I have to go back and look at the GFS again, but I think something similar happens there. The first wave moves up Sunday and Sunday night, then a second low moves up Monday afternoon and evening with even heavier precip.
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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 19, 2017 10:24 pm

There are clear differences between today's 12z NAM versus tonight's 00z, as well as between the GFS and the NAM in how they handle the energy bowling through the southern United States. Which one is right is quite honestly anybody's guess. If I had to pick, and it's not the weenie in me, I'd have to say I like the GFS better, given the fact that the ridge building in behind our energy as it leaves the western U.S. remains neutrally tilted, which in theory, should allow our trough coming through the Southeast to remain neutrally tilted longer. The NAM begins tilting the trough negative before it even reaches the Mississippi River. They may both lead to similar results, as the NAM then takes the closed low due east such that it looks like it would end up in a similar spot near/over the Delmarva, but this is pure conjecture at this time. The GFS just looks like it makes more sense to me, but who knows. Like Scott said earlier, we have 40 hours before this energy even starts coming onshore, and who knows how the trough coming into the Northeast delivering the fresh shot of cold air and high pressure will evolve. Just gotta wait and see how things go.

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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 19, 2017 10:32 pm

What makes me feel a bit more confident is upon inspection of the SREFs, is that many of them have a similar H5 evolution to the GFS versus the NAM, and because the NAM and SREFs utilize the same basic dynamical core, it might just be coming down to a few particular parameterizations.

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Post by billg315 Thu Jan 19, 2017 10:38 pm

@rb924119 wrote:What makes me feel a bit more confident is upon inspection of the SREFs, is that many of them have a similar H5 evolution to the GFS versus the NAM, and because the NAM and SREFs utilize the same basic dynamical core, it might just be coming down to a few particular parameterizations.

Whoa, whoa. "parameterizations" is too complex a word for me. I deal better with large-scale big picture words. (there's a joke in this comment; if nobody gets it, it's probably because it's just not very funny. lol).
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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 19, 2017 10:38 pm

Seeing the RGEMs H5 also makes me feel better, as it is even slightly positively tilted and a bit deeper at its hour 48 versus the 12z GFS neutral axis, closed, and slightly weaker version. Could also be grasping at straws. Just pointing out observations.

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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 19, 2017 10:44 pm

@billg315 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:What makes me feel a bit more confident is upon inspection of the SREFs, is that many of them have a similar H5 evolution to the GFS versus the NAM, and because the NAM and SREFs utilize the same basic dynamical core, it might just be coming down to a few particular parameterizations.

Whoa, whoa. "parameterizations" is too complex a word for me. I deal better with large-scale big picture words. (there's a joke in this comment; if nobody gets it, it's probably because it's just not very funny. lol).

I think I got it lmao parameterization: the act of defining a particular aspect of the atmosphere with a set value or algorithm that is not physically observable. For example, a big one is cloudy physics. Since nobody is just sitting up in the sky observing how every cloud is formed, they assign the models with a particular algorithm, or set of equations and steps to follow, so the model can compute an approximation of that process. Believe it or not, they can lead to large errors sometimes by the end of model runs, especially short-range and high-res guidance which is running many more computational functions than globals, so the errors propagate and grow exponentially faster.

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