January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm

jeeze pushing 4 inches and still raining hard, man if it was only colder, this is a warm run.

Not that I'm writing off the snow potential entirely, but I still think what makes this storm most noteworthy is the wind and flooding potential. That said, if you're in an area where it IS snow (probably N and W of me) I can see where it would be A LOT.

jmanley32 wrote:snowfall is wayyyy inland on wxbell maps.

Don't buy it. I just saw the 850s and 700s and now way it's rain all the way to Williamsport, Pa. Sorry.

sustained surface winds on cmc are pushing 45-50 kts sustained on CMC holy crap, must stay up for Euro.

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:snowfall is wayyyy inland on wxbell maps.

Don't buy it. I just saw the 850s and 700s and now way it's rain all the way to Williamsport, Pa. Sorry.

I believe you surface maps def dont always reflect the upper levels as i have learned.

CMC, verbatim per maps its all rain unless your up near albany. But dayumm, cuz wait till you see the wind map for same time frame wxbell doesnt have good cmc wind maps.

these are 850s but with the heavy precip I do not see a whole lot of inversion issues, unless I am reading it wrong.  This is nuts, remember these are sustained. 80kts into LI, and next frame is east but gets even stronger.

Yeah it's narsty lol

marthas vinyard gets under 96kt 850mb winds cra cra!

jmanley32 wrote:marthas vinyard gets under 96kt 850mb winds cra cra!

While sometimes models seem to overdo winds, if there is a 985 mb low sitting right over the Delmarva, I would fully expect us to be getting serious winds. And as Frank said, the models have been pretty consistent on the wind aspect of this storm.

narsty is right, 50+ kt sustained surface winds not too far offshore, not sure why CMC has such a sharp cutoff on winds im sure the winds go inland a bit. will not bode well for beaches for sure, trees will be coming down if CMC is right all over the area. Easily low to mid hurricane gusts if this verifies especially along LI.

billg315 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:marthas vinyard gets under 96kt 850mb winds cra cra!

While sometimes models seem to overdo winds, if there is a 985 mb low sitting right over the Delmarva, I would fully expect us to be getting serious winds. And as Frank said, the models have been pretty consistent on the wind aspect of this storm.

Its totally about the placement, remember Sandy the strongest winds rotated around the top (although the windspan was 500 miles) but yeah Frank was spot on if this went right by us we would get the full brunt.

So I figured out why the CMC is rain so far to the northwest.......it thinks that it's going to reach the lower to mid 40s all the way through Binghamton ahahahaha YET, dew points barely get above freezing lmfaooooo

Well guys, bedtime for bonzo - or in this case Bill. I'll check in with you in the AM and see where we stand.

Wait wth, CMC has a LP after the main one too!

The GFS just has too much WAA above the surface, so at least that has support from its forecast lmao

billg315 wrote:Well guys, bedtime for bonzo - or in this case Bill. I'll check in with you in the AM and see where we stand.

Night, Bill!! Hopefully you wake up to a flooded board and good news!! To be honest, I don't know how long I'll be able to stay up either lol But I'll try haha

jmanley32 wrote:narsty is right, 50+ kt sustained surface winds not too far offshore, not sure why CMC has such a sharp cutoff on winds im sure the winds go inland a bit. will not bode well for beaches for sure, trees will be coming down if CMC is right all over the area. Easily low to mid hurricane gusts if this verifies especially along LI.

Guyyyyyys lol. I wanna be excited!!! I really do! But I'm not haha. The GFS wasn't so impressive. I dunno, something seems off. Jman, we both know winds rarely pan out as modeled. Am I missing something, RB? What are you most excited about with this storm? The rain snow line crashing toward the coast possibly?

rb924119 wrote:The GFS just has too much WAA above the surface, so at least that has support from its forecast lmao

Looks like this one may be a last minute one too, been trend for past yr. Except the winds, I am pretty much banking on high wind warnings for majority of the area. All 3 models have just been too damn consistent with that. Batten down the hatches.

SoulSingMG wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:narsty is right, 50+ kt sustained surface winds not too far offshore, not sure why CMC has such a sharp cutoff on winds im sure the winds go inland a bit. will not bode well for beaches for sure, trees will be coming down if CMC is right all over the area. Easily low to mid hurricane gusts if this verifies especially along LI.

Guyyyyyys lol. I wanna be excited!!! I really do! But I'm not haha. The GFS wasn't so impressive. I dunno, something seems off. Jman, we both know winds rarely pan out as modeled. Am I missing something, RB? What are you most excited about with this storm? The rain snow line crashing toward the coast possibly?

Honestly, I'm just excited to be tracking something like this haha I've moved on from being overly disappointed when it doesn't snow to just enjoying the thrill of the chase and trying to come up with the best forecasts I possibly can, then watch if they verify or bust haha I mean, don't get me wrong, if I could make it snow a couple feet every day, I would. I LOVE winter. Favorite season. But I now enjoy the thrill of the chase, instead of only the snow. That's why I am so excited, and given the setup, the chance of snow for this event (for some) is enough to put my excitement level over the top haha For instance, the CCB that is being largely modeled to develop now; to be seeing that in a lot of the guidance this far out, because it is a small-scale feature, means that if it does develop, because it's being seen this far out by modeling it will be some kind of awesome to see. Whether rain, snow, or whatever. That's what excites me.

rb924119 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:narsty is right, 50+ kt sustained surface winds not too far offshore, not sure why CMC has such a sharp cutoff on winds im sure the winds go inland a bit. will not bode well for beaches for sure, trees will be coming down if CMC is right all over the area. Easily low to mid hurricane gusts if this verifies especially along LI.

Guyyyyyys lol. I wanna be excited!!! I really do! But I'm not haha. The GFS wasn't so impressive. I dunno, something seems off. Jman, we both know winds rarely pan out as modeled. Am I missing something, RB? What are you most excited about with this storm? The rain snow line crashing toward the coast possibly?

Honestly, I'm just excited to be tracking something like this haha I've moved on from being overly disappointed when it doesn't snow to just enjoying the thrill of the chase and trying to come up with the best forecasts I possibly can, then watch if they verify or bust haha I mean, don't get me wrong, if I could make it snow a couple feet every day, I would. I LOVE winter. Favorite season. But I now enjoy the thrill of the chase, instead of only the snow. That's why I am so excited, and given the setup, the chance of snow for this event (for some) is enough to put my excitement level over the top haha For instance, the CCB that is being largely modeled to develop now; to be seeing that in a lot of the guidance this far out, because it is a small-scale feature, means that if it does develop, because it's being seen this far out by modeling it will be some kind of awesome to see. Whether rain, snow, or whatever. That's what excites me.

This is exactly how I am too, and do not get me wrong i WISH this was showing a frankzilla trust me.

rb924119 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:narsty is right, 50+ kt sustained surface winds not too far offshore, not sure why CMC has such a sharp cutoff on winds im sure the winds go inland a bit. will not bode well for beaches for sure, trees will be coming down if CMC is right all over the area. Easily low to mid hurricane gusts if this verifies especially along LI.

Guyyyyyys lol. I wanna be excited!!! I really do! But I'm not haha. The GFS wasn't so impressive. I dunno, something seems off. Jman, we both know winds rarely pan out as modeled. Am I missing something, RB? What are you most excited about with this storm? The rain snow line crashing toward the coast possibly?

Honestly, I'm just excited to be tracking something like this haha I've moved on from being overly disappointed when it doesn't snow to just enjoying the thrill of the chase and trying to come up with the best forecasts I possibly can, then watch if they verify or bust haha I mean, don't get me wrong, if I could make it snow a couple feet every day, I would. I LOVE winter. Favorite season. But I now enjoy the thrill of the chase, instead of only the snow. That's why I am so excited, and given the setup, the chance of snow for this event (for some) is enough to put my excitement level over the top haha For instance, the CCB that is being largely modeled to develop now; to be seeing that in a lot of the guidance this far out, because it is a small-scale feature, means that if it does develop, because it's being seen this far out by modeling it will be some kind of awesome to see. Whether rain, snow, or whatever. That's what excites me.

I love this! It's a great reminder of why we're all as nutty as we are: We love the thrill of TRACKING weather. I always get a mild depression midway thru a storm actually. Like, some of the excitement is gone because the thrill of it COMING (in whatever form) is gone. Anyway...

On to the 00z Euro! ;-)

Same trends as the other globals though 66 so far

Through 78 00z is definitely deeper. Oh boy

rb924119 wrote:Through 78 00z is definitely deeper. Oh boy

I;m here, this go be mssive hit intensity wise I can see it coming!