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January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm

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Snow88
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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 20, 2017 1:18 am

84 is about 50-75 miles west of 12z but substantially deeper. Wow

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 20, 2017 1:20 am

Definitely west of 12z by about 100 miles at H5

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 20, 2017 1:20 am

Holy cr##....Even if overmodeled, this is still intensifying each run, this is looking bad with the wind aspect, no snow for area on Euro darn.

January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm - Page 13 Ecmwf_22


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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 20, 2017 1:21 am

Why does all that heavy precip ahead of it kick OTS, if it didnt we would have 20 inches of rain.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 20, 2017 1:24 am

heaviest precip is over central CT.
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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 20, 2017 1:28 am

This looked a lot like the GFS run with respect to 850s, and it's because H5 tracked further west. We need it to continue northeast, not turn due north. I think the increase in intensity has something to do with this, but either way it's still a very nasty run. To answer your question, Jman, it's probably resulting from the best forcing. I'm mobile and tired, so I am not gonna investigate further right now, but that's my guess.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 20, 2017 1:30 am

@rb924119 wrote:This looked a lot like the GFS run with respect to 850s, and it's because H5 tracked further west. We need it to continue northeast, not turn due north. I think the increase in intensity has something to do with this, but either way it's still a very nasty run. To answer your question, Jman, it's probably resulting from the best forcing. I'm mobile and tired, so I am not gonna investigate further right now, but that's my guess.

yeah sure is 18 hrs of high winds, not a good thing, can be thrilling but go cause a lot issues if those gusts verify. i am heading to bed too, will see ensembles in morning.  I know this should go in banter but I am affraid people may not see it. My mother in law is having open heart surgery tomorrow, please pray for her.


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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 20, 2017 1:31 am

It's bedtime for this guy haha I'll check back later this morning lmao night guys!

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 20, 2017 1:32 am

@jmanley32 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:This looked a lot like the GFS run with respect to 850s, and it's because H5 tracked further west. We need it to continue northeast, not turn due north. I think the increase in intensity has something to do with this, but either way it's still a very nasty run. To answer your question, Jman, it's probably resulting from the best forcing. I'm mobile and tired, so I am not gonna investigate further right now, but that's my guess.

yeah sure is 18 hrs of high winds, not a good thing, can be thrilling but go cause a lot issues if those gusts verify. i am heading to bed too, will see ensembles in morning.  I know this should go in banter but I am affraid people may not see it. My mother in law is having open heart surgery tomorrow, please pray for her.

Of course!! May God bless!!!! Let us know how things go!!

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 20, 2017 1:33 am

@rb924119 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:This looked a lot like the GFS run with respect to 850s, and it's because H5 tracked further west. We need it to continue northeast, not turn due north. I think the increase in intensity has something to do with this, but either way it's still a very nasty run. To answer your question, Jman, it's probably resulting from the best forcing. I'm mobile and tired, so I am not gonna investigate further right now, but that's my guess.

yeah sure is 18 hrs of high winds, not a good thing, can be thrilling but go cause a lot issues if those gusts verify. i am heading to bed too, will see ensembles in morning.  I know this should go in banter but I am affraid people may not see it. My mother in law is having open heart surgery tomorrow, please pray for her.

Of course!! May God bless!!!! Let us know how things go!!

Its a 5 hr plus sit and wait so I will probably be online much of the day at the hospital waiting to hear. its planned so I am assuming things will go as planned, its Columbia and she has 20 drs on her team.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Jan 20, 2017 4:55 am


This is looking like a serious situation for the coast I would like to hear impacts from the elite on here. Winds,rain, most importantly storm surge, and duration. I was hearing on other boards that new moon should have no affect being that on the 28th. Hoping to hear more today thanks
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Post by docstox12 Fri Jan 20, 2017 6:03 am

@jmanley32 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:This looked a lot like the GFS run with respect to 850s, and it's because H5 tracked further west. We need it to continue northeast, not turn due north. I think the increase in intensity has something to do with this, but either way it's still a very nasty run. To answer your question, Jman, it's probably resulting from the best forcing. I'm mobile and tired, so I am not gonna investigate further right now, but that's my guess.

yeah sure is 18 hrs of high winds, not a good thing, can be thrilling but go cause a lot issues if those gusts verify. i am heading to bed too, will see ensembles in morning.  I know this should go in banter but I am affraid people may not see it. My mother in law is having open heart surgery tomorrow, please pray for her.

Of course!! May God bless!!!! Let us know how things go!!

Its a 5 hr plus sit and wait so I will probably be online much of the day at the hospital waiting to hear.  its planned so I am assuming things will go as planned, its Columbia and she has 20 drs on her team.

Jman,I'll pray for your Mom in law and your family.

Funny thing, NWS has me mixing with snow for most of this event and highs only in the mid 30's.Weird.
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Post by Guest Fri Jan 20, 2017 6:17 am

I haven't seen any of the Euro maps or ensembles, but the CMC was like a late Xmas gift,at least for me. The 6z GFS is just..... ick.

Jman, prayers for your mother in law.

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Post by Grselig Fri Jan 20, 2017 7:28 am

Jman- Prayers and thoughts for your mother in law.
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Post by billg315 Fri Jan 20, 2017 7:34 am

I think Frank's labeling of this earlier in the week as a high impact event appears the best way to put it. The rain, possible flooding, wind and beach erosion are going to be the real newsmakers in this system. There will undoubtably be someone who will get snow out of it, but it increasingly looks like that will not be in NJ or NYC proper. Best case for us would be a late changeover but I think a majority of the storm would still be wet, not white even if the cold air made it to the coast at some point.
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Post by amugs Fri Jan 20, 2017 7:35 am

Jman - prayers for MIL my man.

The coast like I said two days ago better strat to prepare NAM says you are guys are in for it '92 analog being paralleled to this storm.

Wind gusts = major power outages upcoming
January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm - Page 13 5881fb27de0f7_USA_GUSTM_sfc_084(1).thumb.gif.326404de65662dccbf890aaa1c53d7e1

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Post by billg315 Fri Jan 20, 2017 7:37 am

It is a closer call than some might think though for snow. Earlier this week it looked to be about 50* during this storm. Now the temps for most of the storm look to be between about 37* and 42* (for my area). That's a close call for frozen precip.
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Post by Guest Fri Jan 20, 2017 7:50 am

I'm hoping against hope that it somehow manages to bring the temp down a few degrees. The Finger Lakes aren't supposed to reach 40 so it wouldn't take much.

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Post by amugs Fri Jan 20, 2017 8:12 am

UPTON HONKING

Upton saying winds are Looking more dangerous

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Focus is on a storm forecast to take shape as strong Pacific jet
energy about to come onshore the California coast closes off over
the southern Plains Saturday night, then intensifies on Sunday and
moves up the coast on Monday, as downstream blocking via a full
latitude ridge over the western Atlantic and a closed low east of
Labrador prevent its escape out to sea. One leading low could
approach the Mid Atlantic region on Sunday and bring us some light
rain, then as the closed low becomes negatively tilted over the
Southeast states, the primary low should quickly intensify as it
rides up the coast. As this low moves up the coast, a sharp
pressure gradient between high pressure moving southeast from
Quebec toward the Canadian Maritimes will produce strong winds
along the coast and in the higher interior elevations, and cold
air moving southward with the high looks to make it into the area
from late Sunday night into Monday, with a period of wet snow
across the interior before warmer air moves in aloft. A surface
low track closer to the coast than the ensemble means, and slower
than operational models, is preferred attm.

Potential for strong, possibly damaging easterly winds, continues
to increase. EPS probabilities of sustained 40 mph winds and 60
mph wind gusts continue to remain high for the coastline and now
also for the highest interior elevations,
and its probabilities of
45-mph wind gusts are over 50 percent over most of the area. Also,
both GFS and ECMWF MOS continue to predict increasing potential
for sustained winds over 30 mph Mon night into Tue morning,
perhaps as high as 40 mph at the peak of the storm across Long
Island/coastal CT/NYC metro.

A prolonged moderate rainfall of 1-3 inches remains likely as the
storm maintains a tropical moisture connection to the Caribbean
and Eastern Pacific. The rain could become heavy Mon
afternoon/evening especially east of NYC, and maybe even
throughout the region if the low tracks just a little farther
west. With colder air from the Canadian high filtering down into
the region, a period of wet snow is likely across the interior
from late Sunday night into Monday before warmer air moves in
aloft ahead of the low. Amounts should be light, but but as with
several other events this season, could be substantially higher in
the hills of Orange/Putnam/Rockland, and also farther north in
most areas just to the north


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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 20, 2017 8:26 am

Yeah mugs 06z nam at 84hrs has 972mb lp barreling along coast 60 to 80 mph gusts on that map u posted holy jeeze even nyc metro and suburbs 60 plus. Looking high impact indeed. Nam also looks to portray much heavier precip verbatim if extrapolated out.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 20, 2017 8:28 am


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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 20, 2017 8:28 am

Thanks guys for the well wishes for my mother in law.
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Post by sroc4 Fri Jan 20, 2017 8:38 am

Hey guys and gals.  I currently feel like a bag of smashed A-holes.  I was out like a light last night by 9pm and didn't wake up until about an hr ago. I haven't looked at the details of this storm as I normally do, but Ive looked enough to see a few things.

First I still think snow to the coast is highly unlikely at this time, but still not dead.  Areas N&W of I-95 still have a better shot.

Secondly if we want to cont to see a colder soln we MUST see the closed H5 ULL pass S&E of the area, and even then its not a lock.  It seems like a consensus is forming that takes the ULL just to the west of the region up the spine of the Appalachians. The energy that forms this storm originates over the warm Pacific ocean, so this storm has to generate its own cold air since we do not have a cold air mass in place.

Third, and this seems to be more clear to me now, is that the system begins to become occluded beginning somewhere over the Tenn Valley and where the LP comes off the DELMARVA area, so by the time it comes off the coast the surface LP is already beginning to weaken, and "fill in" and the precip shield begins to look all ragged and dispersed relative to where you would expect to see it around a surface LP center because the best forcing is no longer associated with the LP center due to this process of occlusion.  To read about more details about occlusion of a LP center here is a good link:
https://courseware.e-education.psu.edu/public/meteo/meteo101demo/Examples/Section9p05.html
Timing is everything.  There are still differences in the exact timing of occlusion.  And if you read the details in the link provided you can see that there are two phases of occlusion.  

NOTE: the energy that is this storm, and there is ALOT of it, only comes ashore in the west over the next 18-36hrs, so the best sampling is yet to come.  As we have already seen that small last minute trends at H5 can have huge implications on the outcome of the final soln at the surface.  So keep an eye on the S/R hi res models as they cont to come into range.  If we see them differing to what the globals have been depicting at H5 then red flag; expect shifts for better or worse.  

I'm sorry I don't have the time or energy to put up maps this morning.  I would love to illustrate my thoughts above; esp the process of occlusion.  If I feel better I will def have more details myself, about some of the things I just discussed by tomorrow morning.  Now I have to get through today at work.  Ugg

When Frank goes silent it usually means he is making up a detailed write up, so expect that soon.

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Post by amugs Fri Jan 20, 2017 4:05 pm

Meso models showing snow again all the way into Bergen County , NWNJ and EPA and HV get a thump plus
January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm - Page 13 IMG_0274.PNG.e56f59a90e71cdf1d7c78fcbed005b31

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