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January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm

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Snow88
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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Jan 18, 2017 4:47 pm

@SENJsnowman wrote:Thanks for the feedback. And I get that this is not Sandy from a meteorological standpoint. I'm trying to gauge what the on the ground consequences could be. For instance, once that first inch of flood water breaches the threshold, the damage is already catastrophic. Then, it does become 'Sandy like'. I think from that perspective, and given the discussion that has already happened here about the event, the comparison seems appropriate.

I agree I lived along the coast I saw 92 and Sandy and I will say this both were horrible outcomes for this area. Some people said that 92 equaled or may have been worse than sandy. All I'm saying if anything comes close to either it's catastrophic for coastal areas with a new moon on tap as well.
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Post by Grselig Wed Jan 18, 2017 4:48 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@billg315 wrote:You all beat me to the punch. I was just about to type, "I'll have 18." lol. I will say this, putting aside the snow aspect, if this storm pans out the way some models project, it will be a big problem and one that we'll probably remember going forward. Several inches of rain and T.S. force winds are no joke. And we've had a fair amount of precipitation recently so flooding is a legit concern.
Not to mention easier for trees to uproot rather than snap.  I'd prepare for the worst cuz I think either way snow or rain this WILL be high impact and as you said will be one to remember, but the Euro and CMC have been encouraging for N/W snow and some even to the coast.

Yes. No joke. This is still cold weather and power outages with no heat can be dangerous. Too many times we also hear about heaters causing fires,
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 18, 2017 5:09 pm

Wxbell has some cool new maps since I was last on, here is peak wind gusts, now these are peak, there is 40+mph for 16+ hrs (I could see this getting even stronger too) as stated by Frank, we actually escape the heaviest rain but its still around 1-3 inches.  Lets hope its 10-30 inches of snow haha!

January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm - Page 4 Ecmwf_11
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 18, 2017 5:25 pm

18z gfs much weaker than euro with winds.
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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 18, 2017 5:43 pm

We will see if winds end up being as bad as forecasted. Typically they end up not nearly as bad as expected. Rb Ive been slammed at work, so with the exception of brief looks I have not been able to look at anything in detail.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 18, 2017 5:52 pm

@sroc4 wrote:We will see if winds end up being as bad as forecasted.  Typically they end up not nearly as bad as expected.  Rb Ive been slammed at work, so with the exception of brief looks I have not been able to look at anything in detail.  
true, as frank said they may not b realized on models till sat or sun.
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Post by dkodgis Wed Jan 18, 2017 5:58 pm

So by Sunday those folks north of I-84 may see some heavy rain? While I don't wish for anything crazy, we need rain.
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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Jan 18, 2017 7:06 pm

@sroc4 wrote:We will see if winds end up being as bad as forecasted.  Typically they end up not nearly as bad as expected.  Rb Ive been slammed at work, so with the exception of brief looks I have not been able to look at anything in detail.  

THIS. They are NEVER as strong as forecasted.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 18, 2017 7:09 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:We will see if winds end up being as bad as forecasted.  Typically they end up not nearly as bad as expected.  Rb Ive been slammed at work, so with the exception of brief looks I have not been able to look at anything in detail.  

THIS. They are NEVER as strong as forecasted.
not always true sometimes they are worse with a big system. Usually when it's a front is when it's way overdone. All has do with if there's inversion or not.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 18, 2017 11:44 pm

Not gonna post images tonight but CMC is a doozie for more mon/tues/wed as the system actually stalls and curves up and around the cape. Not sure of the winds but at 850 they are impressive, the heaviest rain totals about 3 inches are over eastern areas in CT.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 19, 2017 1:30 am

If the Euro wind gusts are taken verbatim (I realize we have many runs to go and thats the last thing to iron out) there is over a 16 hr period of TS force gusts and at the height its showing 70+ mph gusts just offshort and 55-65 on LI and 50-60 pretty well inland. Precip about the same. The LP crosses right over us through central LI 984mb.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 19, 2017 1:37 am

00z Euro 10-m (surface) Winds start to increase 40+ at 96 hrs then ramp up to the highest around 00z Tues and then slowly go down and still 35-40 mph gusts at hr 132!! Thats crazy and would be devastating to beaches and trees. 12 hr+ period of 50-70mph gusts wow...


January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm - Page 4 Ecmwf_12
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 19, 2017 1:38 am

January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm - Page 4 Ecmwf_13
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 19, 2017 1:40 am

January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm - Page 4 Ecmwf_14
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 19, 2017 1:44 am

precip is lower than i would think, i think this may be underdone.

January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm - Page 4 Ecmwf_15
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Post by algae888 Thu Jan 19, 2017 3:52 am

eps has trended colder each day with this system. yeah I know highly likely all rain for coast but n/w areas need to  keep  an eye on this. eps has   great track  for them. must be some good hits in there...
January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm - Page 4 Ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_8
tues 00z
January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm - Page 4 Ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_7
wens 00z
January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm - Page 4 Ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_6
last nights eps
also notice HP has trended stronger in e/Canada with each run
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Jan 19, 2017 4:53 am

Definitely a colder trend Al, my highs are now forecast in the mid to upper 30's through most of this event. Still a frustrating one though, I have to echo Syos when I see that track in January and see all of that rain associated with it. The other frustrating thing is seeing the mid levels as mild as they are. Even places that go to freezing at the surface seem to get freezing rain especially for the first half of this. It's not till towards the end that the mid levels seem to cool enough to give those to the north and west a shot at a changeover to snow. Still as you say and have all along with this one it's still worth watching.


Last edited by CPcantmeasuresnow on Thu Jan 19, 2017 8:37 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by billg315 Thu Jan 19, 2017 7:08 am

Freezing rain. Hope not. Keep trending colder until it goes to snow, because I don't like it right now one bit. Think if you wanted to create the "Worst Storm Possible". Let's see "we'll take January east coast storm, we'll deprive it of typical January cold to minimize snow, we'll give it rainfall amounts typically seen only from tropical systems, we'll do it in a time frame where we just had some rain and snow to raise water levels a bit (as opposed to late summer when we're usually dry and in drought status), giving us better prospects for flooding, throw in sustained winds strong enough to damage houses and uproot trees from now moisture softened soil, thereby knocking out power at a cold time of year when heating is critical, OH, and we'll turn it just cold enough at the end to create a period of freezing rain to coat everything with ice trapping people in cold homes and hindering first responders." Yep that would be a pretty nasty event.
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Post by Guest Thu Jan 19, 2017 8:24 am

@jmanley32 wrote:precip is lower than i would think, i think this may be underdone.

January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm - Page 4 Ecmwf_15

Is there a New England version of this map?

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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 19, 2017 8:39 am

For those of us hoping against hope for snow, the NAM, SREFs, and GEM are the types of evolutions we want to see the other guidance start going to at H5. Builds the Canadian block back over Hudson Bay, not east of it, which would ensure the Canadian high remains locked in a prime spot and the energy driving down the east side of the ridge can interact with our trough barreling northward and inject fresh cold air. Interesting times ahead, I'm beginning to think, for a couple reasons Wink Wink Wink

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 19, 2017 8:49 am

@rb924119 wrote:For those of us hoping against hope for snow, the NAM, SREFs, and GEM are the types of evolutions we want to see the other guidance start going to at H5. Builds the Canadian block back over Hudson Bay, not east of it, which would ensure the Canadian high remains locked in a prime spot and the energy driving down the east side of the ridge can interact with our trough barreling northward and inject fresh cold air. Interesting times ahead, I'm beginning to think, for a couple reasons Wink Wink Wink

When I look aloft at the GGEM I don't see a potent enough northern stream s/w capable of phasing into the main closed vort and ushering in the cold.

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Post by aiannone Thu Jan 19, 2017 9:22 am

Been busy getting back into the swing of things at school, but I am certainly keeping an eye on this for the potential for heavy rain or heavy snow in Binghamton, NY. Been a miserable cold rain with a brown ground here. Some snow would be nice. I'll be checking in and posting as time permits and once i'm settled in I will be able to post more often. I also have Friday's off, so if we get a weekend coastal storm, you bet I'm driving home for it lol!
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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 19, 2017 9:53 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:For those of us hoping against hope for snow, the NAM, SREFs, and GEM are the types of evolutions we want to see the other guidance start going to at H5. Builds the Canadian block back over Hudson Bay, not east of it, which would ensure the Canadian high remains locked in a prime spot and the energy driving down the east side of the ridge can interact with our trough barreling northward and inject fresh cold air. Interesting times ahead, I'm beginning to think, for a couple reasons Wink Wink Wink

When I look aloft at the GGEM I don't see a potent enough northern stream s/w capable of phasing into the main closed vort and ushering in the cold.

Right now. Remember the tendency this season has been for troughing off the Pac NW to trend deeper, which has allowed troughs entering New England/Northeast to trend deeper. IF that holds, note IF, the interior has to watch out. Not coast. What would happen if this occurred would be that trough entering New England phases with the trough over the Ohio Valley, lowers heights over all of the northeastern U.S. and cut the ridge off near Hudson Bay. Because there is still so much energy upstream of the secondary trough axis coming through the Deep South in the base of the longer wave trough, that would continue to deepen and close off somewhere over the interior Southeast, as the first opens back up. With the heights lowering across the Northeast, this would create a path for the secondary low to track more ENE rather than N or NNE as a closed low. Dynamics and and subsequent CAA would take it from there. Just something to keep an eye on, is all I'm saying.

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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 19, 2017 11:05 am

HUGE IMPROVEMENT TO 12Z GFS!!!! WOW WOW WOW

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Post by sroc4 Thu Jan 19, 2017 11:07 am

@rb924119 wrote:HUGE IMPROVEMENT TO 12Z GFS!!!! WOW WOW WOW

Have you seen the latest SOI? Wink

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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