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January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:21 pm

I would think the energy would want to consolidate in the base of the trough and overpower it but that isn't happening on the NAM. But what's strange is the NAM is the only model to have that mini-low at H5. The other models have a broader trough with one main area of energy and diverge with the direction in which it goes. Crazy.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:28 pm

Well maybe the Nam is not right def wouldn't b the first time.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:28 pm

GFS is running now

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:29 pm

Gfs has initialized.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:29 pm

Lol rb
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Post by Guest Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:33 pm

Every time I tell myself I'm going to go to bed, another model run starts and I end up staying up.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:33 pm

It just doesn't seem right to me. The global model depictions look right, I just wasn't thinking that the H5 low would get THAT far into the block (north). If you noticed, H5 on the NAM after hour 72 stopped its northward progression and started heading ESE because of the block. If it just maintained a NE heading like the CMC and UKMET had north and west would get slam canned. Clearly my thinking is wrong, though, so I'm just here to analyze now lmfao

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:33 pm

TheAresian wrote:Every time I tell myself I'm going to go to bed, another model run starts and I end up staying up.

The struggles are real, my friend. We are all right there with you ahahaha

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Post by Guest Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:34 pm

#TeamWeatherJunkies

Thank God for Benny Hill on YouTube.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:37 pm

GFS looks the same through 30.....I feel like a broken record lol Why couldn't this be fluff? Sad Sad Sad

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Post by Guest Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:47 pm

I don't see the 2nd closed low on the GFS.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:49 pm

TheAresian wrote:I don't see the 2nd closed low on the GFS.

Yeah it's not there. GFS is a little north of 12z at H5 through 54 Sad

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:51 pm

OK now I've lost it. GFS IS MUCH COLDER THAN 12z AT 60!!! ????????????

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:52 pm

January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions - Page 10 Screen66
January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions - Page 10 Screen67

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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:52 pm

rb924119 wrote:
TheAresian wrote:I don't see the 2nd closed low on the GFS.

Yeah it's not there. GFS is a little north of 12z at H5 through 54 Sad

what does all this mean.. no storm or are you looking for cold air...my brain is about to shut down..
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Post by Guest Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:54 pm

The 850 temp is sub freezing for me at hr 66.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:54 pm

Gotta be an error because H5 ends up almost identical to 12z through 72. And it means bad impacts, like we've been seeing.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:55 pm

Yeah it was just that hour lol it's warm. I knew it had to be with H5 where it was aha

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Post by Guest Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:59 pm

At the rate it's going west, that closed low is gonna end up in Ohio or Michigan by the 12z tomorrow.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:59 pm

TheAresian wrote:At the rate it's going west, that closed low is gonna end up in Ohio or Michigan by the 12z tomorrow.

Agreed ahaha Oh man now comes the CMC lol

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 20, 2017 11:01 pm

Not as much rain with the GFS at least, so that's good.

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Post by Guest Fri Jan 20, 2017 11:03 pm

Look at how far it's moved in 24 hours.

1/20 00z
January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions - Page 10 Gfs_z510

1/21 00z
January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions - Page 10 Gfs_z511

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 20, 2017 11:07 pm

TheAresian wrote:Look at how far it's moved in 24 hours.

1/20 00z
January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions - Page 10 Gfs_z510

1/21 00z
January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions - Page 10 Gfs_z511

Great post! Yeah it's pretty amazing and sad all at the same time aha

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Post by Guest Fri Jan 20, 2017 11:09 pm

Am I close in my guess that a lot of the westward movement of the low comes from the fact that the "bar"/block separating the two troughs has disappeared?

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 20, 2017 11:12 pm

TheAresian wrote:Am I close in my guess that a lot of the westward movement of the low comes from the fact that the "bar"/block separating the two troughs has disappeared?

Thumbs up Thumbs up Thumbs up

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 20, 2017 11:16 pm

Through 60 CMC is roughly the same location as 12z but slightly deeper. It would appear that we have a battle of wills going on ahaha

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 20, 2017 11:22 pm

Through 84 CMC shifted H5 about 75 miles further northwest than 12z. If you're looking for frozen precip, even you, Aresian, the trends tonight are not a good sign.

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