January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions

GFS is running now

Gfs has initialized.

Lol rb

Every time I tell myself I'm going to go to bed, another model run starts and I end up staying up.

It just doesn't seem right to me. The global model depictions look right, I just wasn't thinking that the H5 low would get THAT far into the block (north). If you noticed, H5 on the NAM after hour 72 stopped its northward progression and started heading ESE because of the block. If it just maintained a NE heading like the CMC and UKMET had north and west would get slam canned. Clearly my thinking is wrong, though, so I'm just here to analyze now lmfao

@TheAresian wrote:Every time I tell myself I'm going to go to bed, another model run starts and I end up staying up.

The struggles are real, my friend. We are all right there with you ahahaha

#TeamWeatherJunkies

Thank God for Benny Hill on YouTube.

GFS looks the same through 30.....I feel like a broken record lol Why couldn't this be fluff?

I don't see the 2nd closed low on the GFS.

@TheAresian wrote:I don't see the 2nd closed low on the GFS.

Yeah it's not there. GFS is a little north of 12z at H5 through 54

OK now I've lost it. GFS IS MUCH COLDER THAN 12z AT 60!!! ????????????

@rb924119 wrote:

@TheAresian wrote:I don't see the 2nd closed low on the GFS.

Yeah it's not there. GFS is a little north of 12z at H5 through 54

what does all this mean.. no storm or are you looking for cold air...my brain is about to shut down..

The 850 temp is sub freezing for me at hr 66.

Gotta be an error because H5 ends up almost identical to 12z through 72. And it means bad impacts, like we've been seeing.

Yeah it was just that hour lol it's warm. I knew it had to be with H5 where it was aha

At the rate it's going west, that closed low is gonna end up in Ohio or Michigan by the 12z tomorrow.

@TheAresian wrote:At the rate it's going west, that closed low is gonna end up in Ohio or Michigan by the 12z tomorrow.

Agreed ahaha Oh man now comes the CMC lol

Not as much rain with the GFS at least, so that's good.

Look at how far it's moved in 24 hours.

1/20 00z


1/21 00z

@TheAresian wrote:Look at how far it's moved in 24 hours.

1/20 00z


1/21 00z

Great post! Yeah it's pretty amazing and sad all at the same time aha

Am I close in my guess that a lot of the westward movement of the low comes from the fact that the "bar"/block separating the two troughs has disappeared?

@TheAresian wrote:Am I close in my guess that a lot of the westward movement of the low comes from the fact that the "bar"/block separating the two troughs has disappeared?

Through 60 CMC is roughly the same location as 12z but slightly deeper. It would appear that we have a battle of wills going on ahaha

Through 84 CMC shifted H5 about 75 miles further northwest than 12z. If you're looking for frozen precip, even you, Aresian, the trends tonight are not a good sign.