January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions
I would think the energy would want to consolidate in the base of the trough and overpower it but that isn't happening on the NAM. But what's strange is the NAM is the only model to have that mini-low at H5. The other models have a broader trough with one main area of energy and diverge with the direction in which it goes. Crazy.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions
Well maybe the Nam is not right def wouldn't b the first time.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions
GFS is running now
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions
Gfs has initialized.
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jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions
Every time I tell myself I'm going to go to bed, another model run starts and I end up staying up.
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions
It just doesn't seem right to me. The global model depictions look right, I just wasn't thinking that the H5 low would get THAT far into the block (north). If you noticed, H5 on the NAM after hour 72 stopped its northward progression and started heading ESE because of the block. If it just maintained a NE heading like the CMC and UKMET had north and west would get slam canned. Clearly my thinking is wrong, though, so I'm just here to analyze now lmfao
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions
TheAresian wrote:Every time I tell myself I'm going to go to bed, another model run starts and I end up staying up.
The struggles are real, my friend. We are all right there with you ahahaha
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions
#TeamWeatherJunkies
Thank God for Benny Hill on YouTube.
Thank God for Benny Hill on YouTube.
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions
GFS looks the same through 30.....I feel like a broken record lol Why couldn't this be fluff?
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions
I don't see the 2nd closed low on the GFS.
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions
TheAresian wrote:I don't see the 2nd closed low on the GFS.
Yeah it's not there. GFS is a little north of 12z at H5 through 54
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions
OK now I've lost it. GFS IS MUCH COLDER THAN 12z AT 60!!! ????????????
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rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions
rb924119 wrote:TheAresian wrote:I don't see the 2nd closed low on the GFS.
Yeah it's not there. GFS is a little north of 12z at H5 through 54
what does all this mean.. no storm or are you looking for cold air...my brain is about to shut down..
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions
The 850 temp is sub freezing for me at hr 66.
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions
Gotta be an error because H5 ends up almost identical to 12z through 72. And it means bad impacts, like we've been seeing.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions
Yeah it was just that hour lol it's warm. I knew it had to be with H5 where it was aha
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions
At the rate it's going west, that closed low is gonna end up in Ohio or Michigan by the 12z tomorrow.
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions
TheAresian wrote:At the rate it's going west, that closed low is gonna end up in Ohio or Michigan by the 12z tomorrow.
Agreed ahaha Oh man now comes the CMC lol
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions
Not as much rain with the GFS at least, so that's good.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions
Look at how far it's moved in 24 hours.
1/20 00z
1/21 00z
1/20 00z
1/21 00z
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions
TheAresian wrote:Look at how far it's moved in 24 hours.
1/20 00z
1/21 00z
Great post! Yeah it's pretty amazing and sad all at the same time aha
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions
Am I close in my guess that a lot of the westward movement of the low comes from the fact that the "bar"/block separating the two troughs has disappeared?
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions
TheAresian wrote:Am I close in my guess that a lot of the westward movement of the low comes from the fact that the "bar"/block separating the two troughs has disappeared?
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions
Through 60 CMC is roughly the same location as 12z but slightly deeper. It would appear that we have a battle of wills going on ahaha
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions
Through 84 CMC shifted H5 about 75 miles further northwest than 12z. If you're looking for frozen precip, even you, Aresian, the trends tonight are not a good sign.
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