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January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 20, 2017 9:40 am

Dangerous

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 20, 2017 9:41 am

MADONNE

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 20, 2017 9:41 am

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Post by amugs Fri Jan 20, 2017 9:41 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Mugs - you're always on your game. Thank you.
Not really I have been of a bit with me sons injury and end of the marking period but I am BACK BABY!!

NAM is looking very nice

MADONNEEE _ BATTIN DOWN DEM HATCHES SHORE PEEPS !!

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 20, 2017 9:42 am

Last frame of the NAM. Just a destructive system if it came to fruition.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 20, 2017 9:42 am

Wow, senario #1 as frank stated, this is bad.

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Post by amugs Fri Jan 20, 2017 9:43 am

HOLY SHT - christ this is sustained for hours like this - power companies going to blow a circuit if this comes to fruition!!

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 20, 2017 9:45 am

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Post by amugs Fri Jan 20, 2017 9:45 am

Worst part is no knows the real threat here - except us on here and other forums who are tracking!!

Poor shore folks.

Holly and Upton after 12z suites will update hopefully

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 20, 2017 9:45 am

@amugs wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Mugs - you're always on your game. Thank you.
Not really I have been of a bit with me sons injury and end of the marking period but I am BACK BABY!!

NAM is looking very nice

MADONNEEE _ BATTIN DOWN DEM HATCHES SHORE PEEPS !!

January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions - Page 2 USA_GUSTM_sfc_075.thumb.jpg.b368d66e45378409e8ce515941aa087a

Not even just shore look how far west inland those wind gusts go, this is a WCS track for this system and of recent I have tended to buy into our usually hated NAM, its become a lot better. Modonne is right frank 80 kts on that map u posted!

Mugs thankfully these are gusts look at top.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 20, 2017 9:47 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions - Page 2 588221d692fc8
Holy snikees!  Even being 850 as u said inversion not a huge issue easily 60+ maybe even 70+ mph gists on nam jersey shore into metro NYC.  Crazy NAM run. This will cause widespread power outages even well inland taken verbatim and batter the coast to all he double hockey sticks.


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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 20, 2017 9:48 am

By hr 84 and most the rain hasnt even moved fully in yet 2+ inches!
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 20, 2017 9:52 am

So looks like anytime after about noon Mon, will be a bad time to be out? I wasn't planning to drive home until the afternoon but looks like I may have to cut my plans short.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 20, 2017 9:53 am

These are surface sustained winds in kts!! Wow, just wow, 1992 and march 2010, maybe worse than march 2010.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 20, 2017 9:54 am

Frank, you have a map of 925 temps? This is just not making physical sense to me how it's not snowing to I-80 with 850s and higher below zero and the surface 30-35. Trying to find a warm wedge but I can't.

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Post by amugs Fri Jan 20, 2017 9:54 am

NAM snow - we shall see very dynamic storm

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 20, 2017 9:56 am

Frank if we extrapolate the NAM out, is there a second round of even higher winds as the LP looks to pass west not right over us, and conclude that rain will top 3+?
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Post by jake732 Fri Jan 20, 2017 9:56 am

ive read on this board that often the winds are over done, what about this storm?
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 20, 2017 9:57 am

@amugs wrote:NAM snow - we shall see very dynamic storm

January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions - Page 2 IMG_0266.thumb.PNG.4ffed9b8cf6823da11dec439fbd34680
Wow did not even check that! All way into NYC metro woah, this is becoming very exciting on more than one front for me.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 20, 2017 9:59 am

@jake732 wrote:ive read on this board that often the winds are over done, what about this storm?
Frank had stated in his initial write up at the beginning of this thread that there looks to be a lack of inversion which would allow for most winds to come down to the surface so the models for this one unlike many others MAY be completely right, still possible overdonw but personally something tells me they are NOT.
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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:03 am

HOLY MOTHER OF GOD THANK YOU!!!! I FOUND A MODEL THAT MAKES PHYSICAL SENSE IN ITS P-TYPE FIELD!!!!! NAM PARALLEL THANK YOU!!!!

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:03 am

PARA NAM

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:04 am

ECM Ocean Model showing 20 foot waves

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:05 am

Wow, just wow, so wheres the media hype they go wait till people especially on coast have a day or less?
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:06 am

@rb924119 wrote:HOLY MOTHER OF GOD THANK YOU!!!! I FOUND A MODEL THAT MAKES PHYSICAL SENSE IN ITS P-TYPE FIELD!!!!! NAM PARALLEL THANK YOU!!!!
Yeah cuz though NAM radar shows rain it shows snow accumulation, doesnt make sense.
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