January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions
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CPcantmeasuresnow
lglickman1
SoulSingMG
Armando Salvadore
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rb924119
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Frank_Wx
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions
Wow, just wow, so wheres the media hype they go wait till people especially on coast have a day or less?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions
Yeah cuz though NAM radar shows rain it shows snow accumulation, doesnt make sense.rb924119 wrote:HOLY MOTHER OF GOD THANK YOU!!!! I FOUND A MODEL THAT MAKES PHYSICAL SENSE IN ITS P-TYPE FIELD!!!!! NAM PARALLEL THANK YOU!!!!
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions
Donald Trump's first act as President may be to provide relief funds for portions of the coast.
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions
This looks more realistic IMHO
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions
jmanley32 wrote:Yeah cuz though NAM radar shows rain it shows snow accumulation, doesnt make sense.rb924119 wrote:HOLY MOTHER OF GOD THANK YOU!!!! I FOUND A MODEL THAT MAKES PHYSICAL SENSE IN ITS P-TYPE FIELD!!!!! NAM PARALLEL THANK YOU!!!!
Many snow maps count sleet as snow. But verbatim, the NAM and especially NAM PARA show accumulating snow for N&W areas.
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions
Frank_Wx wrote:PARA NAM
SO verbatim are we talking at least 40-50kt sustained winds at surface for the areas in white to pink? That would be insane.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions
Oh sweet please please just a bit more south and we all get some sort frozen precip out of this. SR models at it again!rb924119 wrote:This looks more realistic IMHO
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions
Frank like you said increased to 80-90kts at 925 just offshore, gulp.
actually just onshore into NJ, nudege north and it'll be into the city, if even 50-75% of that mixes down we will see hurricane force gusts.
actually just onshore into NJ, nudege north and it'll be into the city, if even 50-75% of that mixes down we will see hurricane force gusts.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions
Model ranking from a member of another board:
For this range at 72 hours out, the rankings are:
1) ECMWF
2)UKMET
3) GFS
3)GFS-Para
4)CMC
5)JMA
6) NAVGEM
For this range at 72 hours out, the rankings are:
1) ECMWF
2)UKMET
3) GFS
3)GFS-Para
4)CMC
5)JMA
6) NAVGEM
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions
Would increased frozen precipitation weigh down trees. Addl loss of power?
Grselig- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions
Frank_Wx wrote:jmanley32 wrote:Yeah cuz though NAM radar shows rain it shows snow accumulation, doesnt make sense.rb924119 wrote:HOLY MOTHER OF GOD THANK YOU!!!! I FOUND A MODEL THAT MAKES PHYSICAL SENSE IN ITS P-TYPE FIELD!!!!! NAM PARALLEL THANK YOU!!!!
Many snow maps count sleet as snow. But verbatim, the NAM and especially NAM PARA show accumulating snow for N&W areas.
Yeah so I finally checked a sounding of the NAM and there is a warm nose between about 820hPa and 750 hPa, which would mean sleet. Damn lol But at least that p-type makes sense; rain doesn't lol
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions
The NAM doeznt even make the list LOL, whats the integrity of that post though, I mean we seem to put some stance on the NAM starting now, though below I think what 48 hrs is when it becomes more accurate.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions
Personally I would imagine so but only to a degree, at least there are no leaves, unless you have evergreens.Grselig wrote:Would increased frozen precipitation weigh down trees. Addl loss of power?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions
jmanley32 wrote:The NAM doeznt even make the list LOL, whats the integrity of that post though, I mean we seem to put some stance on the NAM starting now, though below I think what 48 hrs is when it becomes more accurate.
That list does not include short range modeling
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions
850mb look of the NAM
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions
Don't even start that off, no politics LOL, I personally will not be expecting much sympathy from there.Frank_Wx wrote:Donald Trump's first act as President may be to provide relief funds for portions of the coast.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions
Frank_Wx wrote:jmanley32 wrote:The NAM doeznt even make the list LOL, whats the integrity of that post though, I mean we seem to put some stance on the NAM starting now, though below I think what 48 hrs is when it becomes more accurate.
That list does not include short range modeling
I jut realized its going off that anomoly chart my bad. But going off of that that means the NAM may be right in terms of intensity because the Euro is showing similar winds. The precip is not as high on Euro though. Can't wait to see the GFS, CMC and Euro 12z.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions
just my thoughts. u do not have to read as i am learning slowly about tracking storms thanx to this amazing forum.
LAKEWOOD WEATHER: STRONG STORM JANUARY 23rd http://www.lakewood732.com/2017/01/strong-storm-january-23rd.html?spref=tw
LAKEWOOD WEATHER: STRONG STORM JANUARY 23rd http://www.lakewood732.com/2017/01/strong-storm-january-23rd.html?spref=tw
Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions
jake732 wrote:just my thoughts. u do not have to read as i am learning slowly about tracking storms thanx to this amazing forum.
LAKEWOOD WEATHER: STRONG STORM JANUARY 23rd http://www.lakewood732.com/2017/01/strong-storm-january-23rd.html?spref=tw
Nice summary of what could possibly come. Keep doing these Jake!
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions
GFS winds early Mon morning...and the low is nowhere near us yet
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions
Monday 7am...50mph gusts
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions
Grselig wrote:Would increased frozen precipitation weigh down trees. Addl loss of power?
Keep this in mind - it will be heavy wet snow not the fluffy stuff we had on Sat Jan 7 and with 30 mph plus sustained winds with gusts to 50 plus the power companies are going to be blowing circuits left and right - no pun here.
Widespread power outages and if we do get snow this will only cause for a very dangerous situation since many people aren't prepared for such.
All u would need is PV racing in behind this and make a flash freeze and folks would freak the freak as we'd say in the 80's BOOM!
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions
OMG!!!
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions
HCANE winds at the doorstep JESUS!
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions
Good stuff, Jake!!! Short, sweet, simple, and to the point!
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions
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