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January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:06 am

Donald Trump's first act as President may be to provide relief funds for portions of the coast. 

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:07 am

This looks more realistic IMHO

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:07 am

@jmanley32 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:HOLY MOTHER OF GOD THANK YOU!!!! I FOUND A MODEL THAT MAKES PHYSICAL SENSE IN ITS P-TYPE FIELD!!!!! NAM PARALLEL THANK YOU!!!!
Yeah cuz though NAM radar shows rain it shows snow accumulation, doesnt make sense.

Many snow maps count sleet as snow. But verbatim, the NAM and especially NAM PARA show accumulating snow for N&W areas.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:08 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:PARA NAM

January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions - Page 3 58822271e080d

SO verbatim are we talking at least 40-50kt sustained winds at surface for the areas in white to pink? That would be insane.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:09 am

@rb924119 wrote:This looks more realistic IMHO

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Oh sweet please please just a bit more south and we all get some sort frozen precip out of this. SR models at it again!
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:15 am

Frank like you said increased to 80-90kts at 925 just offshore, gulp.

January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions - Page 3 Namne_10

actually just onshore into NJ, nudege north and it'll be into the city, if even 50-75% of that mixes down we will see hurricane force gusts.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:19 am

Model ranking from a member of another board:

For this range at 72 hours out, the rankings are:

1) ECMWF
2)UKMET
3) GFS
3)GFS-Para
4)CMC
5)JMA
6) NAVGEM

January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions - Page 3 58822a1bd09ba_ScreenHunter_275Jan_2010_15.thumb.png.7f2a6d6becb47e6caffe063ae4f62097

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Post by Grselig Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:19 am

Would increased frozen precipitation weigh down trees. Addl loss of power?
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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:24 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:HOLY MOTHER OF GOD THANK YOU!!!! I FOUND A MODEL THAT MAKES PHYSICAL SENSE IN ITS P-TYPE FIELD!!!!! NAM PARALLEL THANK YOU!!!!
Yeah cuz though NAM radar shows rain it shows snow accumulation, doesnt make sense.

Many snow maps count sleet as snow. But verbatim, the NAM and especially NAM PARA show accumulating snow for N&W areas.


Yeah so I finally checked a sounding of the NAM and there is a warm nose between about 820hPa and 750 hPa, which would mean sleet. Damn lol But at least that p-type makes sense; rain doesn't lol

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:34 am

The NAM doeznt even make the list LOL, whats the integrity of that post though, I mean we seem to put some stance on the NAM starting now, though below I think what 48 hrs is when it becomes more accurate.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:35 am

@Grselig wrote:Would increased frozen precipitation weigh down trees.    Addl loss of power?
Personally I would imagine so but only to a degree, at least there are no leaves, unless you have evergreens.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:36 am

@jmanley32 wrote:The NAM doeznt even make the list LOL, whats the integrity of that post though, I mean we seem to put some stance on the NAM starting now, though below I think what 48 hrs is when it becomes more accurate.

That list does not include short range modeling

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:36 am

850mb look of the NAM

January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions - Page 3 58822de478294_1-20-201710-33-12AM.thumb.png.d9ebefb6406afb2915e518b7ffe0a7b0

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:40 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Donald Trump's first act as President may be to provide relief funds for portions of the coast. 
Don't even start that off, no politics LOL, I personally will not be expecting much sympathy from there.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:40 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:The NAM doeznt even make the list LOL, whats the integrity of that post though, I mean we seem to put some stance on the NAM starting now, though below I think what 48 hrs is when it becomes more accurate.

That list does not include short range modeling

I jut realized its going off that anomoly chart my bad. But going off of that that means the NAM may be right in terms of intensity because the Euro is showing similar winds. The precip is not as high on Euro though. Can't wait to see the GFS, CMC and Euro 12z.
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Post by jake732 Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:44 am

just my thoughts. u do not have to read as i am learning slowly about tracking storms thanx to this amazing forum.

LAKEWOOD WEATHER: STRONG STORM JANUARY 23rd http://www.lakewood732.com/2017/01/strong-storm-january-23rd.html?spref=tw
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:45 am

@jake732 wrote:just my thoughts. u do not have to read as i am learning slowly about tracking storms thanx to this amazing forum.

LAKEWOOD WEATHER: STRONG STORM JANUARY 23rd http://www.lakewood732.com/2017/01/strong-storm-january-23rd.html?spref=tw

Nice summary of what could possibly come. Keep doing these Jake!

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:51 am

GFS winds early Mon morning...and the low is nowhere near us yet

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:52 am

Monday 7am...50mph gusts

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Post by amugs Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:53 am

@Grselig wrote:Would increased frozen precipitation weigh down trees.    Addl loss of power?

Keep this in mind - it will be heavy wet snow not the fluffy stuff we had on Sat Jan 7 and with 30 mph plus sustained winds with gusts to 50 plus the power companies are going to be blowing circuits left and right - no pun here.
Widespread power outages and if we do get snow this will only cause for a very dangerous situation since many people aren't prepared for such.

All u would need is PV racing in behind this and make a flash freeze and folks would freak the freak as we'd say in the 80's BOOM! Twisted Evil

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:53 am

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Post by amugs Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:54 am

OMG!!!

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Post by amugs Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:55 am

HCANE winds at the doorstep JESUS!

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:55 am

Good stuff, Jake!!! Short, sweet, simple, and to the point!

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:55 am

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