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January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:55 am

Hurricane force gusts just offshore

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:56 am

988mb low in west VA

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:56 am

Wow

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:57 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Monday 7am...50mph gusts

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Jeeze, I was hoping not that early, I dunno what to do about my trip roads are go be a mess I really do not want be caught in worst of this.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:57 am

GFS shows a deluge of rain with high winds over a long period of time. In my mind, worst case scenario as the low tracks inland.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 20, 2017 11:03 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:GFS shows a deluge of rain with high winds over a long period of time. In my mind, worst case scenario as the low tracks inland.

Definitely wouldn't be good lol starting to think you were right about the cold air, too, buddy. Today's runs have been generally less than encouraging Sad Sad there is still hope, but by 12z tomorrow if things don't trend the other way then we'd all better build an ark lol

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 20, 2017 11:05 am

@rb924119 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:GFS shows a deluge of rain with high winds over a long period of time. In my mind, worst case scenario as the low tracks inland.

Definitely wouldn't be good lol starting to think you were right about the cold air, too, buddy. Today's runs have been generally less than encouraging Sad Sad there is still hope, but by 12z tomorrow if things don't trend the other way then we'd all better build an ark lol

We'll see what EURO and UKMET say. If 700mb and 850mb lows track inland, as modeled, probably game over for snow. But my concern is the rain / wind / flooding / power outages

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 20, 2017 11:06 am

Keep in mind these are winds from the GFS, not a short range hi res model. Pretty bizarre.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 20, 2017 11:09 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Keep in mind these are winds from the GFS, not a short range hi res model. Pretty bizarre.

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I honestly do not ever remember seeing that on the GFS on something that may very well verify.  Maybe from a possible tropical system but not like this wow. Also leads me to believe Eurp is going to be higher, and SR will be downright scary as we get closer if this track holds which it seems to be the consensus. When do you think advisories/watches/ warnings will be hoisted?
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 20, 2017 11:13 am

12z Canadian

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 20, 2017 11:15 am

CMC seems to be doing what I think it should with H5 through 78, but it appears outnumbered atm lol

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Post by hyde345 Fri Jan 20, 2017 11:15 am

I think ballgame is over for any accumulating snow in this area and that includes me in dutchess county. Best chance for some accumulation is central NYS and north of I90. This is going to be a rough one for the coast for sure.


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Post by algae888 Fri Jan 20, 2017 11:15 am

We have seen weaker winds with stronger tropical systems I think this has more to do with the high pressure over Eastern Canada pressing down along with low pressure passing West. We're in the worst possible area at the moment. Pretty fascinating setup
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Post by billg315 Fri Jan 20, 2017 11:22 am

Going to be a rough ride I think. And I agree with Algae that the gradient is likely exacerbating the wind situation.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 20, 2017 11:24 am

@algae888 wrote:We have seen weaker winds with stronger tropical systems I think this has more to do with the high pressure over Eastern Canada pressing down along with low pressure passing West. We're in the worst possible area at the moment. Pretty fascinating setup
I know isn't that crazy, l for your sake I hope all ur trees hold up. They have done so much trimming here I think we may be ok but thats not to say there still wont be issues, The gusts being shown on SR are not far from Sandy, I think in yonker highest was around 70-80mph. We will see what hapoens. I think CMC makes more sense precip wise.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 20, 2017 11:37 am

@billg315 wrote:Going to be a rough ride I think. And I agree with Algae that the gradient is likely exacerbating the wind situation.
This will be one to remember, the setup is ideal for a very dangerous storm.
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Post by Guest Fri Jan 20, 2017 11:45 am

From twitter: Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 1h1 hour ago

Top 3 storms analogged for this system Monday and Tuesday
Dec 12-14 1992,Mar 3-5 1993 March 28-30 1984
84 hr nam looks like it

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Post by amugs Fri Jan 20, 2017 12:09 pm

@TheAresian wrote:From twitter: Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 1h1 hour ago

Top 3 storms analogged for this system Monday and Tuesday
Dec 12-14  1992,Mar 3-5 1993  March 28-30 1984
84 hr nam looks like it

Said this earlier tis morning '92 is the top analog - 93 was the superstorm - snow and sleet - dont have that but strength wise maybe

@Algae fascinating set up is right next time we need arctic air in like a few weeks ago with 15-22:1 ratios and we ALLL run around like 3 year old at a kids party when mom yells CAAAKKEE!!

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 20, 2017 12:15 pm

Euro may b scary hold onto your seats.
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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 20, 2017 12:15 pm

UKMET THROUGH 72 LOOKS LIKE THE CMC......ugh lmao gonna be an interesting Euro run. The other globals have a more southern/eastern look at H5 versus the GFS. CMC has been steadfast this whole time on its evolution, it has support from the SREFs, and now has seemingly gained it from the UKMET. Off-run? Maybe. So much time remains for further fun and games lmao

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 20, 2017 12:54 pm

EURO HAS COMMENCED!!!!!! Hope you all have yourselves securely strapped in your seats, and please, no hands or feet in the aisle.......

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 20, 2017 12:59 pm

Something I noticed across guidance is the trough that exits the Upper Midwest plays a crucial role in where our H5 low tracks. If the two trough axes align, ours comes further west. If they don't, it allows it further east. The alignment is basically a weak phase, weak because of the distance, and it merges the two troughs. Once merged, ours is able to become oriented negative like the one in Upper Midwest.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 20, 2017 1:05 pm

Through 36 our southern low is slightly stronger and slightly further north than 00z. Heights ahead of our low are definitely higher though. This might create more separation between the southern low and the Upper Midwest one as it forced the Upper Midwestern one out, but it might also force higher heights into our area and force an interior track as well. Have to see.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 20, 2017 1:08 pm

Through 60, about the same strength versus 00z but the two trough axes are definitely different, namely the Upper Midwestern one. Southern stream is still neutral over the Southeast.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 20, 2017 1:13 pm

Not as deep through 72, but northwest by about 75 miles at H5, and more at the surface. Ughhh

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