NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

Page 5 of 43 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 ... 24 ... 43  Next

Go down

January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Empty Re: January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

Post by algae888 Sat Jan 21, 2017 10:14 pm

get ready for a sleet fest...
January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 I_nw_EST_2017012200_048
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5225
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 58
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Empty Re: January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

Post by algae888 Sat Jan 21, 2017 10:19 pm

WOW
January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_16
January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Rgem_T850_neus_17
good chance that's sleet down to the coast
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5225
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 58
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Empty Re: January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

Post by Guest Sat Jan 21, 2017 10:21 pm

Gonna be a good strong nor'easter is all I'm sayin. Nothing we don't see 1 or 2 times a year. . I'll believe winds over 50mph when they happen. Hope I'm wrong and they do. We shall see


Last edited by syosnow94 on Sat Jan 21, 2017 10:22 pm; edited 1 time in total

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Empty Re: January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 21, 2017 10:22 pm

@algae888 wrote:WOW
January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_16
January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Rgem_T850_neus_17
good chance that's sleet down to the coast
Jeeze, check the wind maps at that time, no way in hell im go out in that sorry Al LOL
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Empty Re: January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 21, 2017 10:23 pm

So theres still a lot to iron out here, cuz that shows rain but Al your saying its sleet, this may be a nowcast.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Empty Re: January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

Post by Guest Sat Jan 21, 2017 10:23 pm

It seems as though I can look forward to a little of everything.

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Empty Re: January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 21, 2017 10:27 pm

These are kts and not gusts and 900mb which is even closer to surface thatn 925mb, coupled with that sleet its go b a ugly evening Monday!! The higest of the winds are actually earlier around NYC but they fluctuate slightly for quite a duration. The strong winds start really rev up on rgem at hr 30 and still whipping at hr 48, thats 18 hrs, not good.

January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Rgem_u10


Last edited by jmanley32 on Sat Jan 21, 2017 10:31 pm; edited 1 time in total
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Empty Re: January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 21, 2017 10:29 pm

Al I have the choice to stay in eastern CT or head back to NY where do you think the best storm conditions will be in terms of high winds and the chance for frozen? And I do not want to be driving in the height of it so if I leave by say 10 or 11am for a 2 hr drive monday morning should it b ok still?
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Empty Re: January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

Post by algae888 Sat Jan 21, 2017 10:32 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:So theres still a lot to iron out here, cuz that shows rain but Al your saying its sleet, this may be a nowcast.
All I'm saying j-man is that with temps in the low to mid thirties and precipitation falling is heavy then don't be surprised to see sleet in there during the heaviest precipitation rate
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5225
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 58
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Empty Re: January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Jan 21, 2017 10:35 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:So theres still a lot to iron out here, cuz that shows rain but Al your saying its sleet, this may be a nowcast.

The yellows are showing rain Jman but the 850 temps show below freezing. This is getting really messy.


Last edited by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sat Jan 21, 2017 10:36 pm; edited 1 time in total
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6662
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 100
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Empty Re: January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

Post by rb924119 Sat Jan 21, 2017 10:36 pm

Extremely preliminary thoughts ripped from my Facebook:

Maps to come tomorrow, but things are progressing as previously mentioned. Expect 1-3", locally up to 4" of rain along and east of the I-95 corridor, with sustained wind speeds likely 35-45mph and gusts to 60mph, possibly even higher. South of I-80 and west of I-95 expect periods of heavy rain and sleet, with minor sleet accumulations. Rainfall will likely be around 1-1.5", with up to two inches of sleet accumulation along the ridgetops in this section. Winds will be lower than the coastal plain, but still likely sustained 20-30mph with gusts to 50mph possible. Finally, north I-80 and west of I-95 expect mainly sleet through the brunt of the storm, with moderate acccumulations expected (2-5"). Sustained winds will likely be 15-25mph with gusts to 40mph. Bulk of the storm comes in through most of Monday and winds down by Tuesday. I stress all of this is still preliminary, and a much clearer and more precise breakdown will be issued tomorrow with all the details!!!

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5354
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Empty Re: January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

Post by rb924119 Sat Jan 21, 2017 10:37 pm

And to answer you from before, jman, I went home for this storm so I was traveling this afternoon and then have been visiting. I'm on mobile now which is why I've been quiet and not posting images. Much more detailed analyses and subsequent forecast will come out tomorrow.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5354
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Empty Re: January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 21, 2017 10:38 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:So theres still a lot to iron out here, cuz that shows rain but Al your saying its sleet, this may be a nowcast.

The yellows are showing rain Jman but the surface temps show below freezing. This is getting really messy.
I can see that, the only thing with this that has been consistent is the wind threat, which on the SR models looks to have even increased a bit that HWW when issued may be higher than 60mph gusts, and I expect inland will be HWW or advisory as all models show winds well inland. For those saying this will be easy peasy I beg to differ but thats okay we all have respect here and can differ in model reading etc. Al I totally see what your saying, sleet is not go be fun, if this becomes a frz event though that would be immensly bad with the wind.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Empty Re: January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

Post by GreyBeard Sat Jan 21, 2017 10:38 pm

Monday morning thru early evening would be the WORST time to travel.I'd stay an extra night at the casino, shoot craps, play blackjack, have a few coctails and enjoy the show.Have some fun and if the casinos loose power,I'm sure they have backup generators.Hell, you probably won't see your buddy for another 20yrs. so live a little.


Last edited by GreyBeard on Sat Jan 21, 2017 10:42 pm; edited 1 time in total

GreyBeard
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 591
Reputation : 34
Join date : 2014-02-12
Location : eastern nassau county

Back to top Go down

January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Empty Re: January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

Post by Dunnzoo Sat Jan 21, 2017 10:39 pm

Interesting how the NAM on two sites are so different..

January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Sn10_a10

January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Namcon11


_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
Dunnzoo
Dunnzoo
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4365
Reputation : 66
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 59
Location : Westwood, NJ

Back to top Go down

January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Empty Re: January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 21, 2017 10:40 pm

@rb924119 wrote:And to answer you from before, jman, I went home for this storm so I was traveling this afternoon and then have been visiting. I'm on mobile now which is why I've been quiet and not posting images. Much more detailed analyses and subsequent forecast will come out tomorrow.
no problem, I think your wind forecast for NYC area is a bit low no? Or is that included in your 60mph gusts.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Empty Re: January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 21, 2017 10:41 pm

@GreyBeard wrote:Monday morning thru early evening would be the WORST time to travel.I'd stay an extra night at the casino, shoot craps, play blackjack, have a few coctails and enjoy the show.Enjoy
I wish I had the choice to stay another night but my wife wants me home, I will make the call early monday morning.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Empty Re: January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 21, 2017 10:42 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:Interesting how the NAM on two sites are so different..

January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Sn10_a10

January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Namcon11


top doesnt include sleet i do not think.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Empty Re: January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

Post by rb924119 Sat Jan 21, 2017 10:46 pm

[quote="jmanley32"]
@rb924119 wrote:And to answer you from before, jman, I went home for this storm so I was traveling this afternoon and then have been visiting. I'm on mobile now which is why I've been quiet and not posting images. Much more detailed analyses and subsequent forecast will come out tomorrow.
no problem, I think your wind forecast for NYC area is a bit low no? Or is that included in your 60mph gusts.[/quote

That's included. NYC is considered to be the 95 corridor.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5354
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Empty Re: January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

Post by Dunnzoo Sat Jan 21, 2017 10:48 pm

Jman, that's what I've been saying, soundings on pivotal weather have had hardly any frozen precip. Even if you added in sleet, it wouldn't be that much compared to the tropicaltidbits map...

_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
Dunnzoo
Dunnzoo
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4365
Reputation : 66
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 59
Location : Westwood, NJ

Back to top Go down

January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Empty Re: January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

Post by rb924119 Sat Jan 21, 2017 10:49 pm

AND THE DAMN GFS STARTS THROWING A MONKEY WRENCH IN EVERYTHING. Can't post the maps, but take a look for yourselves lol

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5354
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Empty Re: January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 21, 2017 10:51 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:Jman, that's what I've been saying, soundings on pivotal weather have had hardly any frozen precip. Even if you added in sleet, it wouldn't be that much compared to the tropicaltidbits map...
greybears feels I should not travel back to ny monday morning whare ur though from Eastern ct bout 2 hrs. Depending if traffic or not. Looks like most precip later in the day?
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Empty Re: January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 21, 2017 10:53 pm

@rb924119 wrote:AND THE DAMN GFS STARTS THROWING A MONKEY WRENCH IN EVERYTHING. Can't post the maps, but take a look for yourselves lol
much bigger precip sheild is that what your pointing out?
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Empty Re: January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 21, 2017 10:56 pm

@GreyBeard wrote:Monday morning thru early evening would be the WORST time to travel.I'd stay an extra night at the casino, shoot craps, play blackjack, have a few coctails and enjoy the show.Have some fun and if the casinos loose power,I'm sure they have backup generators.Hell, you probably won't see your buddy for another 20yrs. so live a little.
LOL no wont b 20 yrs, we see each other every year or two, i appreciate your advice but it looks like the real precip starts later in the day so if i leave early it should just be some gusty winds ill be dealing with. My wife wants me home and its wither cancel stay here or go come back, the place is booked tues and my friend is leaving tues and has go to his parents mon, its a sucky situation.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Empty Re: January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

Post by Dunnzoo Sat Jan 21, 2017 10:56 pm

If you leave early Monday, before noon, you should be ok...

_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
Dunnzoo
Dunnzoo
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4365
Reputation : 66
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 59
Location : Westwood, NJ

Back to top Go down

January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions  - Page 5 Empty Re: January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 5 of 43 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 ... 24 ... 43  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum