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January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

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January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions  - Page 3 Empty Re: January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 21, 2017 4:09 pm

@algae888 wrote:Yes jon i know. Is going to be some really impressive Dynamics going on here and with temperatures mostly in the thirties across most of the area any intense bands could produce sleet even down to the coast. Imagine 40 mile an hour sustained winds with sleet falling. Jon I elect you to stand outside when that's happening and let us know how it feels
Your mean, we already discussed that that would skin u alove, sick man lol, i might in all my gear though lol, I will be driving home sometime monday morning from eastern ct 120 miles so wish me luck! Dunno if its the smartest thing but I gotta see my friend whos visiting his parents from colorado plus we have comp to stay at the casino and gonna party it up, but i also do not wanna miss the storm, im torn lol
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 21, 2017 4:35 pm

So that shows a godzilla verbatim on the 3km, but I get its sleet so will the whole storm be sleet? And how much does this equate to, cannot be 12 inches.
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Post by Dunnzoo Sat Jan 21, 2017 4:43 pm

So checking the soundings of the 18z NAM, here's what it says, and cold is inching closer...

Teterboro, rain until 4am Tues. changing over to snow until around 10 am
Albany, rain to sleet at 4 pm Monday until 1am Tues. and then rain again
Caldwell (SW of me and mugsy in Essex Cty) rain to sleet at about 5pm
and lasting until about 1 am and then more rain
White Plains - rain, changeover to snow around 7 am Tuesday and lasts
until about 11 am.

I'll keep an eye on them, and then see how the obs turn out....

_________________
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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Jan 21, 2017 4:52 pm

@algae888 wrote:The 3k nam has a grand total of 17 inches of sleet for parys of Rockland and Orange County.lol seriously it is a bit colder than last run and the Winds are Mighty impressive sustained 40 mile an hour winds even into parts of interior Northern New Jersey. One thing about the trends is that the system is slowing down some and probably the worst effects are the daylight hours Monday 7 a.m. till about 7 p.m.
Edit the Run wasn't finished yet it shows a grand total of 21 inches of sleet in Northern Rockland and Southern Orange County

Al, that's actually pretty funny and would also be unprecedented. Of course if it actually happened it would not be funny at all, damage to roofs especially would be widespread from the weight. Sleet however does not stick to power lines so it would be preferable vs. freezing rain but my snowblower might finally die from 21 inches of sleet.

I received 3-4 inches of sleet, (which is the most I've seen at one time in my lifetime) after 18 inches of snow from the superstorm in 93. That was the heaviest 3-4 inch layer I have ever shoveled in my life. The 18 inches of snow underneath was easier to deal with.
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Post by amugs Sat Jan 21, 2017 4:53 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:So checking the soundings of the 18z NAM, here's what it says, and cold is inching closer...

Teterboro, rain until 4am Tues. changing over to snow until around 10 am
Albany, rain to sleet at 4 pm Monday until 1am Tues. and then rain again
Caldwell (SW of me and mugsy in Essex Cty) rain to sleet at about 5pm
and lasting until about 1 am and then more rain
White Plains - rain, changeover to snow around 7 am Tuesday and lasts
until about 11 am.

I'll keep an eye on them, and then see how the obs turn out....

Okay just got back from al my errands etc.

The trends are there folks - dynamics sown south = problems up north simple just like last storm that came out of the S/SE.

It is coming and if you have not prepared better get going - generator, gas, turn the fridge up to it coldest, snowblower ready just in case the NAM para comes to fruition.

Not being a doomsayer but I have seen this before and from my opinion it is going to be a serious storm.

Jersey shore will see moderate coastal flooding hands down and power outages galore - u thik 12-16 hours of sustained trop force winds dont do damage - tell me on Tuesday after noon.

JB still riding the 1-3 for teh city and 3-6 burbs of teh city NNJ and NWNJ is 6" plus.

Saying it will go down to as a top 5 storm for winds froma Nor and again liken it to '92.

I said this a few days ago on here I am favoring sleet more so over snow overall for once we turn it is when teh wind changes direction.

This is tell tale of the dynamics for this storm

January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions  - Page 3 Day1otlk_2000


_________________
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AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by algae888 Sat Jan 21, 2017 5:01 pm

Nws latest disco...
NAM/GFS indicating low-level cold air damming signature undercutting
750-850 hpa warm nose Sunday night through Monday aft over the
region. Based on strong dynamics and deep enough cold layer well N&W
of NYC Mon...sleet could mix in briefly at the coast...with more
prolonged rain/sleet or even plain sleet across NW hills Mon
morn/aft. A light sleet accumulation is possible across interior
portions of NE NJ...Lower Hud...and Southern Ct...particularly the
NW hills.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 21, 2017 5:16 pm

@amugs wrote:
@Dunnzoo wrote:So checking the soundings of the 18z NAM, here's what it says, and cold is inching closer...

Teterboro, rain until 4am Tues. changing over to snow until around 10 am
Albany, rain to sleet at 4 pm Monday until 1am Tues. and then rain again
Caldwell (SW of me and mugsy in Essex Cty) rain to sleet at about 5pm
and lasting until about 1 am and then more rain
White Plains - rain, changeover to snow around 7 am Tuesday and lasts
until about 11 am.

I'll keep an eye on them, and then see how the obs turn out....

Okay just got back from al my errands etc.

The trends are there folks - dynamics sown south = problems up north simple just like last storm that came out of the S/SE.

It is coming and if you have not prepared better get going - generator, gas, turn the fridge up to it coldest, snowblower ready just in case the NAM para comes to fruition.

Not being a doomsayer but I have seen this before and from my opinion it is going to be a serious storm.

Jersey shore will see moderate coastal flooding hands down and power outages galore - u thik 12-16 hours of sustained trop force winds dont do damage - tell me on Tuesday after noon.

JB still riding the 1-3 for teh city and 3-6 burbs of teh city NNJ and NWNJ is 6" plus.

Saying it will go down to as a top 5 storm for winds froma Nor and again liken it to '92.

I said this a few days ago on here I am favoring sleet more so over snow overall for once we turn it is when teh wind changes direction.

This is tell tale of the dynamics for this storm

January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions  - Page 3 Day1otlk_2000

Wow when do u see that in jan woah.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 21, 2017 6:02 pm

All sr models from here on out right? No sense look at cmc gfs euro?
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Jan 21, 2017 6:03 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:So checking the soundings of the 18z NAM, here's what it says, and cold is inching closer...

Teterboro, rain until 4am Tues. changing over to snow until around 10 am
Albany, rain to sleet at 4 pm Monday until 1am Tues. and then rain again
Caldwell (SW of me and mugsy in Essex Cty) rain to sleet at about 5pm
and lasting until about 1 am and then more rain
White Plains - rain, changeover to snow around 7 am Tuesday and lasts
until about 11 am.

I'll keep an eye on them, and then see how the obs turn out....

Great info Janet keep it coming as it updates if you can.
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Post by nutleyblizzard Sat Jan 21, 2017 6:07 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:All sr models from here on out right? No sense look at cmc gfs euro?
Yep. Now we are in range to see the potential true dynamics of this storm. Its a shame there's limited cold air to work with. It would of been a blizzard of 1888 redux in my mind.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 21, 2017 6:32 pm

@nutleyblizzard wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:All sr models from here on out right? No sense look at cmc gfs euro?
Yep. Now we are in range to see the potential true dynamics of this storm. Its a shame there's limited cold air to work with. It would of been a blizzard of 1888 redux in my mind.
I know don't remind me. I just hope it's not downpours of sleet on my drive home monday. I'm go leave early hoping to b back b4 worst which seems b afternoon to overnight into tues early morning?
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 21, 2017 6:38 pm

Still so quite in terms of anyone knowing the magnitude of the winds. I think it's cause no talk of snow but if it tons into a sleeticane maybe people will take heed but really time has run out.
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Post by Guest Sat Jan 21, 2017 6:52 pm

Question about sroc's post from page 2. He opined that the models have too little snow for central PA. Would that also hold true for my area (about 135 n-ne of State College)?

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Post by SoulSingMG Sat Jan 21, 2017 6:53 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Still so quite in terms of anyone knowing the magnitude of the winds. I think it's cause no talk of snow but if it tons into a sleeticane maybe people will take heed but really time has run out.

I saw Jeff Smith's forecast at the 5:30 hour; he said it's a high-impact storm, reiterated the power outage potential as well. His future-cast depicted about an inch & three-quarters for Manhattan.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 21, 2017 7:11 pm

Yeah just looked online seems the word is get out now. One day b4.
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Post by Guest Sat Jan 21, 2017 7:38 pm

As someone who lives on the coast surrounded by a lot of trees, I don't see how this storm of 30-45 mph winds and 1.5 -2" of rain is that big a deal! Nothing we don't go through pretty routinely. MYbe we should slow down the hype train?

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Post by Guest Sat Jan 21, 2017 7:51 pm

As someone who lives on the coast surrounded by a lot of trees, I don't see how this storm of 30-45 mph winds and 1.5 -2" of rain is that big a deal! Nothing we don't go through pretty routinely. MYbe we should slow down the hype train?

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Post by track17 Sat Jan 21, 2017 7:53 pm

I agree syo I am at the Jersey shore we have seen these many times no big deal.

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 21, 2017 7:57 pm

30 to 45 mph sustained guys. But take it how u do. Of course everyone will b ok but irs still go cause big problems and power outages likely.
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Post by Guest Sat Jan 21, 2017 8:00 pm

Like Frank likes to say meh!

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Post by SoulSingMG Sat Jan 21, 2017 8:00 pm

syosnow94 wrote:As someone who lives on the coast surrounded by a lot of trees,  I don't see how this storm of 30-45 mph winds and 1.5 -2" of rain is that big a deal!  Nothing we don't go through pretty routinely. MYbe we should slow down the hype train?

Agreed, though I don't really hear much in the way of hype per se. More just, "Hey! Monday's gonna be Nor'easter-ish messy so keep it in mind..."
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Post by devsman Sat Jan 21, 2017 8:02 pm

Losing power with 40 degree temps is meh? Ok
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Post by Guest Sat Jan 21, 2017 8:08 pm

Don't foresee losing power. If I do I have a wood burning stove!!

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 21, 2017 8:09 pm

@devsman wrote:Losing power with 40 degree temps is meh? Ok
Franks scroll and storm mode does not merit a meh from him I'm sure. He says meh when nothing happens. Dev I agree. Let's see how everyone feels tuesday. Msybe it will b no big deal but there are crazy dynamics at play here.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 21, 2017 8:13 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Don't foresee losing power. If I do I have a wood burning stove!!
just err on side of caution. No one has really hyped including me I've shown maps and th ey are impressive. Also losing power in a apartment building is so much worse than a house.
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