Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

[SoulSingMG]

LEE GOLDBERG just sounded quiet alarms for "next Super Bowl Sunday into Monday" for a significant snow storm; said many signals have been pointing toward this timeframe for a storm. RARE for him to mention anything this far out.

Oh great....just as the announcer's curse holds true in sports, the TV met's curse will hold for snow storms. So it was written SO SHALL IT BE DONE

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

This winter is a bust bring on spring

Stone him, or her.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MIaORknS1Dk

CP WITH THE CLUTCH CLIP ahahahahaha too funny

RB, I'm impressed at age 25 you're even aware of Monty Pythons Life of Brian. Throw the sacreligious aside if possible, just a hysterical movie.

[amugs]

SROC oh that was my mistake in bc omnynI caring it to all here. After reaig hin post and what he sent me.
Still pretty friggin incredible!! 
What is the threshold for a split with the PV even in a so called weaken state?
Tom Frank, Ray Armondo care to answer?
I.know there are variables but in general

[weatherwatchermom]

LEE GOLDBERG just sounded quiet alarms for "next Super Bowl Sunday into Monday" for a significant snow storm; said many signals have been pointing toward this timeframe for a storm. RARE for him to mention anything this far out.

Oh great....just as the announcer's curse holds true in sports, the TV met's curse will hold for snow storms. So it was written SO SHALL IT BE DONE

[Frank_Wx]

SROC oh that was my mistake in bc omnynI caring it to all here. After reaig hin post and what he sent me.
Still pretty friggin incredible!! 
What is the threshold for a split with the PV even in a so called weaken state?
Tom Frank, Ray Armondo care to answer?
I.know there are variables but in general

I just posted this on facebook...someone asked me if there's normally another wave attack on the heels of one another.

The short answer is not always, but once you're in late January and February the answer is yes because mean zonal winds, from a climo standpoint, tend to slow down which leaves the PV vulnerable to warming events. Look at the second graph on this chart. Including the current wave 1 event, we've had 2 significant ones so far this winter. Right now, models aren't showing a follow up wave 2 following the current wave 1 so recovery of the Strat PV back over the Pole is possible. However, it's still too soon to say. I actually think a Wave 2 is more likely than a recovery but we'll see. Also notice how the upcoming Wave 1 will be stronger in amplitude than the one we saw late December.

[rb924119]

This winter is a bust bring on spring

Stone him, or her.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MIaORknS1Dk

CP WITH THE CLUTCH CLIP ahahahahaha too funny

RB, I'm impressed at age 25 you're even aware of Monty Pythons Life of Brian. Throw the sacreligious aside if possible, just a hysterical movie.

I have to be honest and say that I've never seen most of those shows, but I am familiar with the satire haha I have seen parts of Holy Grail, but that's about it. I'm much more well-versed in Mel Brooks lol this is OTI stuff, I know, so we can talk further over there if you wish CP.

[essexcountypete]

I have to be honest and say that I've never seen most of those shows, but I am familiar with the satire haha I have seen parts of Holy Grail, but that's about it. I'm much more well-versed in Mel Brooks lol this is OTI stuff, I know, so we can talk further over there if you wish CP.

Indeed, if you sufficiently well versed on Monty Python you would have recognized my avatar at the 500 ft hedgehog named Spiny Norman from the Pirrana Brothers episode.

But seriously, h/t for knowing MP and Mel Brooks.

[Sorry meant to cut and paste into banter]

[Isotherm]

With respect to the pattern, my confidence continues to grow that this winter is gradually improving rather than a maintenance of status quo. Displacement induced tilting will not be sufficient to force a major zonal wind reversal in the coming days, but reconsolidation will be slow / painful, with IMO, an increasingly likelihood of a follow-up wave-2 convergence about a week or so later. This isn't really being detected by the model data yet, but it should in the coming days. The vortex will be extremely susceptible in early February, and we're entering a regime for further robust driving. When a boxer attempts to knock someone out, it's much easier do to so after several hard punches, rather than waiting until the opponent regains his/her footing and strength. Not too dissimilarly, a delay in follow-up wave driving permits rapid reconsolidation, but the entrance into a propitious precursor regime implies an already depressed vortex state will be threatened with potentially fatal blows.



The first real threat has been 2/6 period to me, but even if that one doesn't work out, I tend to think the tropospheric pattern may become more blocky as we progress into mid / late February. The lack of NAM / NAO cooperation has been detrimental for the East Coast in times of WPO/EPO pulses. Contemporaneous geopotential height response would yield a significantly more auspicious set-up for coastal snowfall. The tropical forcing progression, additionally, looks good to me for renewed ridging near Alaska, after this initial cut-off block retrogrades away.



The long and short of it is as follows: February will be our best month of the meteorological winter this year. The extent to which the sensible weather is pleasing for winter lovers will be largely a function of effective stratospheric activity and other variables. But I am willing to say at this point that February looks much closer to normal temperature wise, with likely at least normal snowfall for the month. March could either resume January's furnace is the strat progression falls apart, or feature a nice late winter regime. 1973-74 still looks great as an analog.

[Snow88]

GFS is an inland runner and the CMC is a coastal storm for Feb 6

Those models switched places lol

Many more runs to go

[sroc4]

Well the 29th-30th time frame is all but dead for me.  The clipper system for the 1st time frame is certainly not dead, but the writing is starting to appear on the wall for not much more than snow flurries to a light snow event.  I'm sure we would all take a light snow event at this point.  It appears that the energy for this system remains too flat and elongated for any meaningfull lift to occur as this system pushes through.  Again there is still time for this one to adjust back to what Ishowed the euro doing the other day, but odds are def leaning towards a dryer soln at this time.  The 6th time frame still has the best potential, but it is still too far in the Md - LR to instill any true confidence one way or the other.  With the MJO forecasts still very much up in the air beyond day3-5 the idea of a system west of us and yet another cold rain event as a possibility is still a possibility as much as I don't want it to be.  But the idea of a Mothrazilla-Godzilla is absolutely equally alive.  We are simply going to have to remain patient for a few more days until we see how this system evolves on the modeling.  

With this system essentially we get an area of confluence set up in the east leading to a frontal boundary as a piece of Pac energy moves across the country.  Overnight there were three solns.  GFS cuts the system west, the CMC gives us the perfect track up the coast and Godzilla, and the euro overnight was a southern slider OTS for our area.  The differences is where the confluence is set up at H5, timing and interactions with the N branch, and thus where the boundary layer for which the system will ride is different.  Since I do not believe (at least for now) that a southern slider is correct due to the way the trop Pac is setting up, MJO forecasts, I have excluded the euro soln from this discussion for now but I guess the chances aren't zero either.  Lets look at GFS then CMC.  
 
On the GFS you can see how the energy associated with the N branch is more in pieces.  One that is just about off the map on the right, and a second s/w in S central Canada by 18z Sat the 4th.  The N s/w raises heights out ahead of it.  This leaves room for, and allows the heights out ahead of our system to increase out ahead of it as well.  As these higher heights make it into the NE by the 6th the boundary layer is forced N of the area and the system has room to cut up to our west leading to maybe snow to start, but ultimately changeover to wet and mixed precip.  





The CMC however offers a diff soln.  The key here is again in the handling of the vorticity/energy in the N branch.  At H5 at the exact same time frame as the H5 GFS map above notice the energy in the N branch is all one continuous elongated feature.  This creates a much more well defined and stronger northern portion of the confluent zone.  The strength of this feature prevents heights from rising out ahead of our Pac s/w keeping the flow much flatter.  This keeps the boundary layer where we want it such that when the H5 Pac s/w makes it to us the surface LP hits the BM, or near it, with a much more desirable soln.  


 

I'm kept it simple for today as there are more to the set up than what I wrote, ie phasing with the N branch and when is one example, that could play a role as well, but since we are still far out one of the first things to nail down is how the confluence sets up.

[Frank_Wx]

Nice summary Scott. The 6th is still a long ways off. I won't begin to seriously analyze the 500mb level until Tuesday. I agree the 29th is dead, but kept the SCI at 5% because these IVT can be sneaky. Some ensembles bring snow to the area still. The Clipper I actually think still has a chance to bring a light snowfall to the area. Models are keeping the confluence / 500mb energy north of us. It seems with a western ridge, despite it being fairly progressive, I feel the energy should be digging a bit more. I would like to see another day or 2 of model runs and see if they trend back to the snowier solution. Also keeping SCI same for this one.

[dkodgis]

Speaking from a "I know nothing" perspective, even I know the jet stream is dipping and the polar vortex may come kiss us with cold. And with that we have several chances for snow. What I also know is just not above I-84. The Time-Space Continuum ends above I-84.

[sroc4]

Absolutely frank regarding the 1st. There is potent energy but modeling just doesn't want to see it dig much and keeps it strung out. But I agree a light event is def not dead. For me for now I see this maxing at a 1-3" event. Obv that can change if we see otherwise as the sr modeling comes in range. The 6th is def still a ways away but it's being talked about quite a bit so I figured I would lay out a few big picture features for others to monitor going forward. Of course the basic set up I outlined can still change as well. Regarding the 29th30th there is def a fair amount of vorticity swirling overhead at H5 & H8 so an unexpected axis of lift is of course not out of the question. We shall see. I def did not plan on changing the SCI without at least discussing first, plus it all seems fair.

[Armando Salvadore]

 

With respect to the pattern, my confidence continues to grow that this winter is gradually improving rather than a maintenance of status quo. Displacement induced tilting will not be sufficient to force a major zonal wind reversal in the coming days, but reconsolidation will be slow / painful, with IMO, an increasingly likelihood of a follow-up wave-2 convergence about a week or so later. This isn't really being detected by the model data yet,  but it should in the coming days. The vortex will be extremely susceptible in early February, and we're entering a regime for further robust driving. When a boxer attempts to knock someone out, it's much easier do to so after several hard punches, rather than waiting until the opponent regains his/her footing and strength. Not too dissimilarly, a delay in follow-up wave driving permits rapid reconsolidation, but the entrance into a propitious precursor regime implies an already depressed vortex state will be threatened with potentially fatal blows.

 

The first real threat has been 2/6 period to me, but even if that one doesn't work out, I tend to think the tropospheric pattern may become more blocky as we progress into mid / late February. The lack of NAM / NAO cooperation has been detrimental for the East Coast in times of WPO/EPO pulses. Contemporaneous geopotential height response would yield a significantly more auspicious set-up for coastal snowfall. The tropical forcing progression, additionally, looks good to me for renewed ridging near Alaska, after this initial cut-off block retrogrades away.

 

The long and short of it is as follows: February will be our best month of the meteorological winter this year. The extent to which the sensible weather is pleasing for winter lovers will be largely a function of effective stratospheric activity and other variables. But I am willing to say at this point that February looks much closer to normal temperature wise, with likely at least normal snowfall for the month. March could either resume January's furnace is the strat progression falls apart, or feature a nice late winter regime. 1973-74 still looks great as an analog.

Great info Tom, you've been right on the money since early January. Regarding 200VP, it appears the GEFS has been doing well and the ECMWF is beginning to converge towards the GEFS. Pretty robust coherent MJO wave over the IO/MC as of now. Here is your WWB to begin Feb via the CFS. This will aid towards a much more wintry regime for the east coast and now the 0z EPS has converged more towards the GEFS regarding the medium/LR as it shows heights begin to rise over the west and near the polar regions. Subsequently, following the displacement of the PV, given the lag time.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Speaking from a "I know nothing" perspective, even I know the jet stream is dipping and the polar vortex may come kiss us with cold. And with that we have several chances for snow. What I also know is just not above I-84.  The Time-Space Continuum ends above I-84.  

What is going on there? I've had 25 inches of snow so far this season and I'm only 15 miles south of I 84.

[Armando Salvadore]

By the way Scott, fantastic breakdown of the modeling and scenario's. I as well am not brushing off that clipper midweek. Potent midlevel energy swinging through.

[SENJsnowman]

The models for the 5th-6th are consistently showing rain along the coast...all the way up to CT really. So, if a coastal storm does develop, what would change our green to blue? Would it have to be a more easterly track that what the coastal track is showing? Is there a chance of colder air coming to the coast? Could this be a storm that creates its own cold air? All of the above? None of the above? I know it's way early and who really knows...but I still want to know if there is a reason for optimism that the Shore gets a Zilla too!

[Frank_Wx]

The models for the 5th-6th are consistently showing rain along the coast...all the way up to CT really. So, if a coastal storm does develop, what would change our green to blue? Would it have to be a more easterly track that what the coastal track is showing? Is there a chance of colder air coming to the coast? Could this be a storm that creates its own cold air? All of the above? None of the above? I know it's way early and who really knows...but I still want to know if there is a reason for optimism that the Shore gets a Zilla too!

The models are not consistent with anything at this juncture. The 18z GFS went from showing a Godzilla to a rainstorm. The CMC went from showing a rainstorm to a borderline Godzilla. The EURO misses the phases and has no storm. We have a LONG way to go, which is why I rather not analyze H5 maps until Tuesday. By then, the pattern should be better realized.

[SENJsnowman]

Thanks for the response Frank. I'll just remain bullishly optimistic until Tuesday, and check back in then if we still have a green coastline.

I really appreciate the great info you all share. I can only follow a small part of the X's and O's, but here and there I add one or two more pieces to the puzzle.

[Snow88]

GFS and CMC keep shifting south with the clipper for midweek. Something to watch.

[Snow88]

Looks way different than 6z through 192

[Snow88]

Coastal low on the GFS for Super Bowl Sunday

[frank 638]

Does this mean rain to the coast and snow well inland or we get a nice snowstorm for everyone for the super bowl storm

[sroc4]

Does this mean rain to the coast and snow well inland or we get a nice snowstorm for everyone for the super bowl storm

Way to early for those details. H5 looked great on both CMC and GFS for being 7days out.

[skinsfan1177]

Right were we want them to be atm

[amugs]

Does this mean rain to the coast and snow well inland or we get a nice snowstorm for everyone for the super bowl storm

Frank it is a long way out as Frank (Emperor) has stated a few posts above. Could you imagine another Super Bowl Storm - that would make 3 out of the last 4 years we have had one!

Tom honking - awesome sign and excellent write up thank you for sharing you thoughts here for us to use our webster dictionaries - LOL!!

Everyone wants NAO block but I have to say it has been the most elusive feature since I joined on any forum in 2011. One things I have learned though it can poop up 72 hours before the storm as we have seen over these past few years.

From Earthlight - great gif showing the PNA ridge in the west and teh retrogression of the aleutian Ridge

file:///jhomenuk/status/825357477843697664

[amugs]

MJO showing sings of goodness here going into 8 then 1 and onto 2.
A very good progression and sign for this month. Models are still lagging with this so we'll see!

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