Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

[Armando Salvadore]

Great stuff Frank, some discrepancy between the GFS and ECMWF regarding the stratospheric warming as the EURO is more robust with the descent 0-wind line. The consensus is, it'll become very vulnerable to continued wave driving, and if we do see an emergence of another MJO event, one would think we see a huge attack. Regardless, it's looking good for the LR i believe and that period around the 6th has my attention. Also still not letting the 30th slip passed, think we may have to just watch that.

[Frank_Wx]

Great stuff Frank, some discrepancy between the GFS and ECMWF regarding the stratospheric warming as the EURO is more robust with the descent 0-wind line. The consensus is, it'll become very vulnerable to continued wave driving, and if we do see an emergence of another MJO event, one would think we see a huge attack. Regardless, it's looking good for the LR i believe and that period around the 6th has my attention. Also still not letting the 30th slip passed, think we may have to just watch that.

Unfortunately a SSWE (a full ranged one from top to lower Strat) that takes places in mid-February will not bring meaningful impacts to our Meteorological winter pattern since there is a lag time. So while this Wave 1 warming even should bring positive changes to our 500mb, it's likely not sustainable. The best SSWE are those that occur in January.

[Armando Salvadore]

Great stuff Frank, some discrepancy between the GFS and ECMWF regarding the stratospheric warming as the EURO is more robust with the descent 0-wind line. The consensus is, it'll become very vulnerable to continued wave driving, and if we do see an emergence of another MJO event, one would think we see a huge attack. Regardless, it's looking good for the LR i believe and that period around the 6th has my attention. Also still not letting the 30th slip passed, think we may have to just watch that.

Unfortunately a SSWE (a full ranged one from top to lower Strat) that takes places in mid-February will not bring meaningful impacts to our Meteorological winter pattern since there is a lag time. So while this Wave 1 warming even should bring positive changes to our 500mb, it's likely not sustainable. The best SSWE are those that occur in January.

Ah, however, while i did not mean we'd see a legitimate SSWE by early Feb, it does not mean it can't have implications with coupling amongst the troposphere. We can still see an alteration of the NAM state. With this being said, it'd only be a matter of time before we see a reconsolidating PV. By the way, Anthony Masiello is discussing constructive interference with a jet retraction. Interestingly enough, when we see a wave break event and a retrograding anticyclone meet, we see a huge amplitude wave build upon over the Aleutian thus imposing a huge pacific block. What we saw back in December and early Jan, will happen again, but this time, we should remain in favor due to a seasonal variation in the polar jet and a further shift south with the baroclinic zone thanks to a more robust -WPO/Aluetian ridge.

[Frank_Wx]

Yes, it looks like Anthony agrees that the Wave 1 event should bring about -AO conditions 2nd week of February. I agree completely.

Today's LR guidance is very intriguing. Multiple threats to track.

[rb924119]

Feb. 3rd-7th has my my attention

[Guest]

I know it's model humping, but the GFS has something decent around the 6th.

[skinsfan1177]

Also the end of this month threat still needs to be watched

[Guest]

Opportunity for education for me here. That's showing as a clipper, correct?

[rb924119]

Opportunity for education for me here. That's showing as a clipper, correct?

End of this month? Yes.

[Guest]

Would you mind answering another question? It's regarding the 5-8th time period that seems to have some promise.

[rb924119]

Would you mind answering another question? It's regarding the 5-8th time period that seems to have some promise.

I can certainly try! Haha

[Guest]

I'm looking at the 500 mb map for the system in that 5-8th period and if I'm reading it correctly (questionable at best) the heights along the west coast don't seem ideal. I know it's a long way out, but how does that effect the trough and the system that accompanies it?

[Frank_Wx]

The storm signal between the 4th and 6th is a good one, IMO. This morning in my LR post I called out this period as a favorable one as positive heights begin to develop over the AO/NAO domains. Between the 2nd and 3rd, models are advertising an arctic wave which could bring minor snow to the area. Most importantly, this wave will entrench us in cold and the remnant upper energy will act as confluence, or possible 50/50 Low, to set us up for the system between the 4th-6th. The upper energy associated with the 4th-6th storm is shown to dig into the western U.S. then eject east toward our area, better defined as a SWFE. The anomalous ridging in the North Pac, -AO, and possible -NAO, puts us in a good position to see a widespread snow event. It's a similar set-up to the storm we saw in early January.

So minor snow 2nd-3rd, bigger one 4th-6th, and another time frame I like is 13th-16th for reasons I'll explain at a later time once guidance gets into range. Safe to say pattern is changing as a result of MJO forcing / Stratospheric Warming, which is what I brought to light in my Youtube video January 15th.

[Guest]

Thank you. 2 mistakes on my part.

1) I wasn't looking at the ensemble.

2) I was looking at a few days farther along, the 6th through the 8th.

[rb924119]

Frank pretty much answered your question, Aresian. And Frank, sorry for posting and pretty much repeating your earlier post; didn't realize you posted an almost identical statement to mine earlier today lol

[Isotherm]

I continue to like the second week of February (centered around the 6th) for reasons mentioned heretofore. Should be a southwest flow event which could produce a moderate snow event w/ sufficient energy infused via the Pacific jet. Neutralization of the geopotential height field in the Arctic will occur, but whether we induce a genuine, protracted NAO/AO domain block will be a function of stratospheric progression. The latest ECMWF now removes the official SSW event w/ mean zonal winds remaining positive through D10, with subsequent re-intensification. As I mentioned in a prior post, I've thought that we're going to need another wave-1 or preferably wave-2 follow up to truly induce a real / efficacious SSW w/ downward propagation. If we accomplished that, later February into March could become quite interesting. If we don't, we're probably going to continue to need to rely on Pacific poleward ridging into the Arctic. Regardless, the vortex is substantially weaker which will allow for an increased propensity of higher geopotential heights in the NAM domain. The takeaway from me continues to be our most conducive pattern of the winter thus far (not saying much), but in an objective sense, not a great pattern for the coast through week 2 (although a snow event is likely the second week of feb).

[Isotherm]

The precursor pattern is quite conducive for a follow up robust wave-2 as well. So if the vortex rebounds post this initial attempt (which I believe it will), I think there's a decent chance it could be fully destroyed in mid February with a more effective warming.

[sroc4]

So much for cold weather in early February...

Hey Mikey.  Just to follow up.  Here is the same time frame from yesterdays 12z to compare.  All is not lost'



Cont to monoitor the 30th,aand better chance around the first with a clipper.  GFS passes the clipper N of the area with nothing more than flurries, but Euro overnight redeveloped it just S of LI with a nice norlun trough axis develop as it swings through.  In this case verbatim the NT axis sets up shop though CT, RI, and Mass. Pay no attention to the details at this time, esp at the surface, but rather monitor the trends at 500mb to the ridging out west, the track of the s/w as it passes through the area, and if the NT conts to show up in the modeling.  The NT would be the absolute last thing to iron out right around game time if it holds true.  

Keep in mind at this time guidance has 850mb temps between -8 and -14 throughout this little event so it would likely be a high ratio event so small QPF can still have significant impacts.  So here is the 15:1 Euro snow map that shows the potential for a system like this if a NT does indeed develop. I know I know its still 7days out, but shit man we need something to get excited about right?  

[weatherwatchermom]

So much for cold weather in early February...

Hey Mikey.  Just to follow up.  Here is the same time frame from yesterdays 12z to compare.  All is not lost'



Cont to monoitor the 30th,aand better chance around the first with a clipper.  GFS passes the clipper N of the area with nothing more than flurries, but Euro overnight redeveloped it just S of LI with a nice norlun trough axis develop as it swings through.  In this case verbatim the NT axis sets up shop though CT, RI, and Mass.  Pay no attention to the details at this time, esp at the surface, but rather monitor the trends at 500mb to the ridging out west, the track of the s/w as it passes through the area, and if the NT conts to show up in the modeling.  The NT would be the absolute last thing to iron out right around game time if it holds true.  

Keep in mind at this time guidance has 850mb temps between -8 and -14 throughout this little event so it would likely be a high ratio event so small QPF can still have significant impacts.  So here is the 15:1 Euro snow map that shows the potential for a system like this if a NT does indeed develop. I know I know its still 7days out, but shit man we need something to get excited about right?  

Thanks for the write up!! Hope you are feeling better?!!

[sroc4]

Thanks! Getting there. Still nagging though. I'm at about 90%

[amugs]

Great write up DOC - I think this has legs.

ANY WAY CFS v2 Harping on February.
Two days ago




What is this showing?
Look at the streak of green - showing where the cold air source is coming from as Alaska all that cold air from the N EPO and WPO gets funnelled South and East.

[amugs]

And look at what we have here WOOP WOOP!!

[devsman]

If anyone needs to cheer up today, all you have to do is look at 12Z GFS. 3 or 4 snow chances over 2 weeks. Let the games begin!

[amugs]

If anyone needs to cheer up today, all you have to do is look at 12Z GFS. 3 or 4 snow chances over 2 weeks. Let the games begin!

Yup absolutely - pattern recognition - step away from the edge peeps.
We have a nice EPO well actually a great EPO block with a PNA pumping out west and 50/50 blocks from all these little crappy vorts that will conglomerate up there with a Davis Straight or Scandinavian block setting up (East Based NAO) which some feel give better downstream kinks in the flow, back up the flow.

GEFS have such storm signals as well - now Syo and others dont flip if the models lose these please take it to banter BUT this month will produce from what is happening in teh PAC and Higher Lattitudes.

MJO GEFS lead us home baby !! BOOYAHH!!
Level 8 = cold and storms on the east coast

[Frank_Wx]

That was one sexy GFS run. Homepage SCI updated.

February 6th

[Frank_Wx]

What's interesting on the GEFS is the -PNA signal trended weaker. There seems to be very weak ridging over the SW CONUS throughout its entire run, with a zonal flow across the PAC NW. The north-central and northeastern parts of the country remain normal to below normal through February 11th. This is the type of pattern that should produce multiple snow threats. 

[Frank_Wx]

EURO for the IVT on Feb 2nd

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