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Long Range Thread 13.0

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Post by SoulSingMG Fri Feb 10, 2017 7:16 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Yeah but we aren't on his map sooo.

Not for the New England blizzard—for Thursday's potential.
so are we safe to say 95 cooridor will b okay to drive monday?

I believe so, from Providence south. Monday isn't our threat; it's an Eastern New England special. And a special one at that.
even along ct 95 from about 30 miles from ri? I know lucky if I could stay till tues I wpuld but I cant.

This is actually a North-of-BOS type event. Even Beantown (if I type B_____ it turns into another phrase lol) will see lesser amounts than NH & Maine. I grew up there, I've seen these GOM storms before.

Our issue Monday will be WIND.

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Post by 2004blackwrx Fri Feb 10, 2017 8:38 pm

Not seeing much talk on this. My weather app is currently saying 4 inches of snow sunday.

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Post by Snow88 Fri Feb 10, 2017 9:16 pm

Nam looks colder through 36 hours for Sunday's event
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Post by hyde345 Fri Feb 10, 2017 9:35 pm

2004blackwrx wrote:Not seeing much talk on this. My weather app is currently saying 4 inches of snow sunday.

Sunday is going to be interesting for us in Dutchess. Just north of us NWS Albany issued a winter storm watch for heavy now. We are going to get some decent snows as well but it looks like it will mix and probably turn to rain later in day.
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Post by Snow88 Fri Feb 10, 2017 9:36 pm

Sunday storm is coming in colder on the Nam and hi res nam. So close.
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Post by Guest Fri Feb 10, 2017 9:56 pm

The 3k NAM is much kinder to me than the 12k.

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Post by hyde345 Fri Feb 10, 2017 10:20 pm

RGEM colder too. Interesting.
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Post by Snow88 Fri Feb 10, 2017 10:23 pm

NYC sees moderate snow to rain on the RGEM
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Post by Guest Fri Feb 10, 2017 10:25 pm

With. Snowpack things ALWAYS TREND COLDER. Forecast high for Sunday on NWS was 44 yesterday and now 36 today. One more day of trends to go

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Post by Snow88 Fri Feb 10, 2017 10:29 pm

WXbell snow map has 2-5 inches for the NYC area
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 10, 2017 10:40 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Yeah but we aren't on his map sooo.

Not for the New England blizzard—for Thursday's potential.
so are we safe to say 95 cooridor will b okay to drive monday?

I believe so, from Providence south. Monday isn't our threat; it's an Eastern New England special. And a special one at that.
even along ct 95 from about 30 miles from ri? I know lucky if I could stay till tues I wpuld but I cant.

This is actually a North-of-BOS type event. Even Beantown (if I type B_____ it turns into another phrase lol) will see lesser amounts than NH & Maine. I grew up there, I've seen these GOM storms before.

Our issue Monday will be WIND.
yay wind! How high? Bet winds over here go b fierce actually might stay just to head to new London beach to catch the wave action. B bitter cold prolly.
been drive out halfway to ct nice light snow and we have a beautiful view out the room as there's lights all over already coating. Is it snow in nyc area?
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 10, 2017 10:43 pm

Wait im.confused so it's no longer a monday storm it's a sunday storm? What time exactly and when would u guys think winds would b highest why am I always out here when there's a wind threat lmao.
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Post by frank 638 Fri Feb 10, 2017 10:44 pm

Just had some snow showers for a while not it stopped .it is getting very exciting for sunday storm and next Thursday storm bring on the snow

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Post by Snow88 Fri Feb 10, 2017 10:45 pm

GFS is slightly colder but the result is the same for our area. CT north looks good.
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Post by jimv45 Fri Feb 10, 2017 11:00 pm

Yea Hyde Sundays storm up here is getting interesting could get a decent event.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Feb 10, 2017 11:10 pm

jimv45 wrote:Yea Hyde Sundays storm up here is getting interesting could get a decent event.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2017_02/IMG_1828.thumb.PNG.7ae77113e6e63949d826616fd8cfdb8e.PNG

Click on the link above. Latest REGM for Sunday. Most of the HV is in 6-10 range. Crazy.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 10, 2017 11:10 pm

Started a thread for Sunday's storm

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Post by SoulSingMG Fri Feb 10, 2017 11:18 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Yeah but we aren't on his map sooo.

Not for the New England blizzard—for Thursday's potential.
so are we safe to say 95 cooridor will b okay to drive monday?

I believe so, from Providence south. Monday isn't our threat; it's an Eastern New England special. And a special one at that.
even along ct 95 from about 30 miles from ri? I know lucky if I could stay till tues I wpuld but I cant.

This is actually a North-of-BOS type event. Even Beantown (if I type B_____ it turns into another phrase lol) will see lesser amounts than NH & Maine. I grew up there, I've seen these GOM storms before.

Our issue Monday will be WIND.
yay wind! How high? Bet winds over here go b fierce actually might stay just to head to new London beach to catch the wave action. B bitter cold prolly.
been drive out halfway to ct nice light snow and we have a beautiful view out the room as there's lights all over already coating. Is it snow in nyc area?

I think at least high end advisory on Monday, Jman, with that low cranking away in the Gulf of Maine.
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Post by Radz Sat Feb 11, 2017 8:04 am

Sunday def looking better for some snowfall. Is it safe to say that we have no clearer picture of the system Wed/Thursday, and most likely won't until Sun/Mon system has passed? GFS looks like it hasn't budged on its surface solution, but what about the upper air?
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Post by Guest Sat Feb 11, 2017 8:41 am

Were there any changes in the 0z Euro or is it still phase for the Euro and no phase for the GFS?

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Post by Radz Sat Feb 11, 2017 8:59 am

TheAresian wrote:Were there any changes in the 0z Euro or is it still phase for the Euro and no phase for the GFS?

To my untrained eye Euro looks like its still there but timing and placement are different...
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Post by RJB8525 Sat Feb 11, 2017 9:25 am

Amy Freeze this morning still has chance of snow on Wednesday and Thursday
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Post by Guest Sat Feb 11, 2017 11:47 am

NWS has lost all mention of a storm for Wednesday and/or Thursday!

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Post by amugs Sat Feb 11, 2017 1:50 pm

It is not over for Thurs - just have some patience with this. A lot of energy flying around. At 0Z and 12Z manana we will know hopefully more were this is headed.

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Post by SoulSingMG Sat Feb 11, 2017 1:50 pm

Models today in general are not wild about the Thursday threat.
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Post by sroc4 Sat Feb 11, 2017 2:03 pm

Biggest prob with Thursday threat is models are too fast with the N energy, and or too slow ejecting the S energy out of the SW (this has been the case all winter)

We absolutely need to see modeling speed up and bundle the southern energy better or slow down the timing of the N energy.  If the N energy comes in ahead of the S energy it will act to deflect the energy S&E keeping the trough pos tilted and the flow progressive.  If it comes in behind it it should interact with the S energy and cause the trough to go neutral then neg and bring it up the coast.  Plain and simple.  Unfort models seem to be coming to the consensus to the former scenario.  Still time left however to monitor the trends.  All energy is onshore this afternoon so the 00zs should be telling.

Here is the difference at H5 from yesterdays 12z where the euro had the LP up the coast vs todays 12z where it is OTS.  

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 20 Ecmwf_51
Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 20 Ecmwf_52

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Feb 11, 2017 2:12 pm

sroc4 wrote:Biggest prob with Thursday threat is models are too fast with the N energy, and or too slow ejecting the S energy out of the SW (this has been the case all winter)

We absolutely need to see modeling speed up and bundle the southern energy better or slow down the timing of the N energy.  If the N energy comes in ahead of the S energy it will act to deflect the energy S&E keeping the trough pos tilted and the flow progressive.  If it comes in behind it it should interact with the S energy and cause the trough to go neutral then neg and bring it up the coast.  Plain and simple.  Unfort models seem to be coming to the consensus to the former scenario.  Still time left however to monitor the trends.  All energy is onshore this afternoon so the 00zs should be telling.  

Here is the difference at H5 from yesterdays 12z where the euro had the LP up the coast vs todays 12z where it is OTS.  

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 20 Ecmwf_51
Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 20 Ecmwf_52
bernie was say same in his video yesterday. I really hope that s energy can get out ahead. Gfs has been steadfast on hold it way back. Euro is close.
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