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Long Range Thread 13.0

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Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 3 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by jake732 Thu Jan 26, 2017 1:35 pm

whats ivt?
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Post by sroc4 Thu Jan 26, 2017 1:38 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:What's interesting on the GEFS is the -PNA signal trended weaker. There seems to be very weak ridging over the SW CONUS throughout its entire run, with a zonal flow across the PAC NW. The north-central and northeastern parts of the country remain normal to below normal through February 11th. This is the type of pattern that should produce multiple snow threats. 

Interesting divergence on the progression of the MJO in the various modeling. Very different solns. GEFS are def the most bullish with it coming out in 7-8 whereas the others are coming out in the warm phases. This causes a little pause; however, the GFS led the way with the moist recent propagation through 8-2. We shall see.

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 3 ALL_emean_phase_full



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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 3 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by sroc4 Thu Jan 26, 2017 1:38 pm

@jake732 wrote:whats ivt?

InVerted Trough

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by sroc4 Thu Jan 26, 2017 1:40 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@jake732 wrote:whats ivt?

InVerted Trough

Synonymous with Norlun Trough

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/126/


http://www.mattnoyes.net/new_england_weather/2011/01/exactly-what-is-a-norlun-trough-and-how-do-you-forecast-weather-associated-with-it.html


Last edited by sroc4 on Thu Jan 26, 2017 1:41 pm; edited 1 time in total

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 3 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 26, 2017 1:40 pm

@jake732 wrote:whats ivt?

Inverted Trough.

Basically, the 500mb trough goes negative and 500mb energy embedded within the trough is strong enough to allow precipitation to develop at the surface. I'm sure Ray or Scott can get more technical than me about it. Some good links on Google too if you just search inverted trough.

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Post by nutleyblizzard Thu Jan 26, 2017 1:48 pm

Frank does the February 6th event have Godzilla potential? I know these ssw systems can be tricky with gradients and ratios.
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Post by devsman Thu Jan 26, 2017 1:58 pm

SO based off of my calculations Frank...Ur saying 30+30+20....80% chance of a storm?
scratch

PS. I'm a middle school math teacher and i get answers like that from my minions
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Post by SNOW MAN Thu Jan 26, 2017 2:06 pm

Frank, would these threats you have listed on the home page effect the whole area or just certain parts ?
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 26, 2017 2:16 pm

@nutleyblizzard wrote:Frank does the February 6th event have Godzilla potential? I know these ssw systems can be tricky with gradients and ratios.

Yes.

@devsman wrote:SO based off of my calculations Frank...Ur saying 30+30+20....80% chance of a storm?
scratch  

PS. I'm a middle school math teacher and i get answers like that from my minions

Haha, teach them about independent and dependent variables.

@SNOW MAN wrote:Frank, would these threats you have listed on the home page effect the whole area or just certain parts ?

My SCI percentage is based off Central Park, NY...but all these threats could bring snow to the area yes. The inverted trough threat is better for the coast but I've seen one's where snow extends well inland too.

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Post by SNOW MAN Thu Jan 26, 2017 2:17 pm

Thanks !
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Post by amugs Thu Jan 26, 2017 8:22 pm

Arctic HP presses big time on us in the NE
From Ventrice
Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 3 Img_2063

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Jan 26, 2017 8:47 pm

@amugs wrote:Arctic HP presses big time on us in the NE
From Ventrice
Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 3 Img_2063

From where? Ventrice?
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 26, 2017 8:48 pm

That's the name of the Meteorologist

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Post by amugs Thu Jan 26, 2017 8:50 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@amugs wrote:Arctic HP presses big time on us in the NE
From Ventrice
Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 3 Img_2063

From where? Ventrice?

CP Mike Ventrice Pro.Met out of New England.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Jan 26, 2017 8:51 pm

@amugs wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@amugs wrote:Arctic HP presses big time on us in the NE
From Ventrice
Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 3 Img_2063

From where? Ventrice?

CP Mike Ventrice Pro.Met out of New England.

Got it. Haven't heard of him. Reliable?
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Post by amugs Thu Jan 26, 2017 9:16 pm

Yes Mike Ventrice is a good reliable Met. Warm bias at rimes but a good overall forecaster.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 26, 2017 9:50 pm

GFS had a very nice snow event on the 1st. Solid 2 to 4 inches.

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 3 588ab5548ce95


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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 26, 2017 10:12 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:GFS had a very nice snow event on the 1st. Solid 2 to 4 inches.

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 3 588ab5548ce95

I want my Godzilla arg lol
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 26, 2017 11:16 pm

GFS trended stronger with the clipper. Nice!!

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 3 588ac97d32984

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Post by billg315 Thu Jan 26, 2017 11:21 pm

I'll take a nice 2-4" event. Particularly if it's a precursor to something bigger in the next 10-14 days.
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Post by billg315 Thu Jan 26, 2017 11:23 pm

The mere fact we're getting a clipper is good because it means we finally have the doors open for cold air to get down here.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 26, 2017 11:39 pm


Incredible setup on the CMC for the 5th. PV pressing south as the baroclinic zone initially is north of us but gets shunted south. Rain to snow it looks like. The cut off PAC ridge and developing high latitude blocking should bring the PV south enough to prevent a full cut. Could be a SWFE or Miller B type. Either way, I like that day for at least a SECS with MECS potential.


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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 26, 2017 11:47 pm

Like CMC, GFS also showing a potent system around the 5th. This event still has a long way to go, but the 500mb pattern looks decent to me. Let's hope it doesn't break down.

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Post by Armando Salvadore Thu Jan 26, 2017 11:53 pm

Yep as we see a gradient setup with a NW flow imposed as heights build eastward, we see diving energy from the polar jet riding the boundary for the 1st-3rd event. I like this event and what it could produce. Frank i know you mentioned it back over a few days ago so nicely done. Have you seen the cmc and gfs hint at an ivt for around the 30th? Something to watch. As for the 5th-7th event, which seems most inclusive in regards to its bigger potential, its all going to come down to the position of the TPV. Think we have it in our favor at the time. We shall see! Regardless, we finally can now enter back into a winter regime!
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Post by algae888 Fri Jan 27, 2017 2:12 am

euro looks to be on board also...
Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 3 Ecmwf_T850_us_11
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