Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

[Frank_Wx]

What's interesting on the GEFS is the -PNA signal trended weaker. There seems to be very weak ridging over the SW CONUS throughout its entire run, with a zonal flow across the PAC NW. The north-central and northeastern parts of the country remain normal to below normal through February 11th. This is the type of pattern that should produce multiple snow threats. 

[Frank_Wx]

EURO for the IVT on Feb 2nd

[jake732]

whats ivt?

[sroc4]

What's interesting on the GEFS is the -PNA signal trended weaker. There seems to be very weak ridging over the SW CONUS throughout its entire run, with a zonal flow across the PAC NW. The north-central and northeastern parts of the country remain normal to below normal through February 11th. This is the type of pattern that should produce multiple snow threats. 

Interesting divergence on the progression of the MJO in the various modeling. Very different solns. GEFS are def the most bullish with it coming out in 7-8 whereas the others are coming out in the warm phases. This causes a little pause; however, the GFS led the way with the moist recent propagation through 8-2. We shall see.

[sroc4]

whats ivt?

InVerted Trough

[sroc4]

whats ivt?

InVerted Trough

Synonymous with Norlun Trough

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/126/


http://www.mattnoyes.net/new_england_weather/2011/01/exactly-what-is-a-norlun-trough-and-how-do-you-forecast-weather-associated-with-it.html

[Frank_Wx]

whats ivt?

Inverted Trough.

Basically, the 500mb trough goes negative and 500mb energy embedded within the trough is strong enough to allow precipitation to develop at the surface. I'm sure Ray or Scott can get more technical than me about it. Some good links on Google too if you just search inverted trough.

[nutleyblizzard]

Frank does the February 6th event have Godzilla potential? I know these ssw systems can be tricky with gradients and ratios.

[devsman]

SO based off of my calculations Frank...Ur saying 30+30+20....80% chance of a storm?


PS. I'm a middle school math teacher and i get answers like that from my minions

[SNOW MAN]

Frank, would these threats you have listed on the home page effect the whole area or just certain parts ?

[Frank_Wx]

Frank does the February 6th event have Godzilla potential? I know these ssw systems can be tricky with gradients and ratios.

Yes.

SO based off of my calculations Frank...Ur saying 30+30+20....80% chance of a storm?
 

PS. I'm a middle school math teacher and i get answers like that from my minions

Haha, teach them about independent and dependent variables.

Frank, would these threats you have listed on the home page effect the whole area or just certain parts ?

My SCI percentage is based off Central Park, NY...but all these threats could bring snow to the area yes. The inverted trough threat is better for the coast but I've seen one's where snow extends well inland too.

[SNOW MAN]

Thanks !

[amugs]

Arctic HP presses big time on us in the NE
From Ventrice

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Arctic HP presses big time on us in the NE
From Ventrice

From where? Ventrice?

[Frank_Wx]

That's the name of the Meteorologist

[amugs]

Arctic HP presses big time on us in the NE
From Ventrice

From where? Ventrice?

CP Mike Ventrice Pro.Met out of New England.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Arctic HP presses big time on us in the NE
From Ventrice

From where? Ventrice?

CP Mike Ventrice Pro.Met out of New England.

Got it. Haven't heard of him. Reliable?

[amugs]

Yes Mike Ventrice is a good reliable Met. Warm bias at rimes but a good overall forecaster.

[Frank_Wx]

GFS had a very nice snow event on the 1st. Solid 2 to 4 inches.

[jmanley32]

GFS had a very nice snow event on the 1st. Solid 2 to 4 inches.

I want my Godzilla arg lol

[Frank_Wx]

GFS trended stronger with the clipper. Nice!!

[billg315]

I'll take a nice 2-4" event. Particularly if it's a precursor to something bigger in the next 10-14 days.

[billg315]

The mere fact we're getting a clipper is good because it means we finally have the doors open for cold air to get down here.

[Frank_Wx]

Incredible setup on the CMC for the 5th. PV pressing south as the baroclinic zone initially is north of us but gets shunted south. Rain to snow it looks like. The cut off PAC ridge and developing high latitude blocking should bring the PV south enough to prevent a full cut. Could be a SWFE or Miller B type. Either way, I like that day for at least a SECS with MECS potential.

[Frank_Wx]

Like CMC, GFS also showing a potent system around the 5th. This event still has a long way to go, but the 500mb pattern looks decent to me. Let's hope it doesn't break down.

[Armando Salvadore]

Yep as we see a gradient setup with a NW flow imposed as heights build eastward, we see diving energy from the polar jet riding the boundary for the 1st-3rd event. I like this event and what it could produce. Frank i know you mentioned it back over a few days ago so nicely done. Have you seen the cmc and gfs hint at an ivt for around the 30th? Something to watch. As for the 5th-7th event, which seems most inclusive in regards to its bigger potential, its all going to come down to the position of the TPV. Think we have it in our favor at the time. We shall see! Regardless, we finally can now enter back into a winter regime!

[algae888]

euro looks to be on board also...

[Sponsored content]