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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 27, 2017 2:27 am

Euro looks nice surface 10 day 2 to 6 area wide maybe more. I can't complain at this point. Of course hoping for more but it's Def look decent al.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 27, 2017 5:54 am

@Armando Salvadore wrote:Yep as we see a gradient setup with a NW flow imposed as heights build eastward, we see diving energy from the polar jet riding the boundary for the 1st-3rd event. I like this event and what it could produce. Frank i know you mentioned it back over a few days ago so nicely done. Have you seen the cmc and gfs hint at an ivt for around the 30th? Something to watch. As for the 5th-7th event, which seems most inclusive in regards to its bigger potential, its all going to come down to the position of the TPV. Think we have it in our favor at the time. We shall see! Regardless, we finally can now enter back into a winter regime!

Yes, I've been talking about the IVT (check the homepage) but my confidence is very low for it. I think the trough may go negative too late to benefit us. Plus it's a progressive flow.

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Post by nutleyblizzard Fri Jan 27, 2017 6:31 am

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 4 Gfs_ms13
6zGFS trended stronger/colder for the February 6th event. Potential is most definitely there.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Jan 27, 2017 6:38 am

@nutleyblizzard wrote:Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 4 Gfs_ms13
6zGFS trended stronger/colder for the February 6th event. Potential is most definitely there.

Sure didLong Range Thread 13.0 - Page 4 588b2b10
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Post by Snow88 Fri Jan 27, 2017 8:24 am

Few chances of snow coming up with multiple waves. A lot of model watching coming up the next 2 weeks.
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Post by amugs Fri Jan 27, 2017 9:48 am

Start and PV Displacement happening over our heads, how long will it last? Usually a 2 weeks time frame hopefully we can get some help to extend this.

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 4 Img_2064

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 27, 2017 9:50 am

@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@nutleyblizzard wrote:Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 4 Gfs_ms13
6zGFS trended stronger/colder for the February 6th event. Potential is most definitely there.

Sure didLong Range Thread 13.0 - Page 4 588b2b10
looks like a mothrazilla at least very nice. Let's hope.
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Post by jake732 Fri Jan 27, 2017 9:56 am

finally some snow to track. should be fun 2 weeks or so. eye obviously on the feb 5th
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 27, 2017 10:15 am

Check out the beast offshore on 11th or so on 06z gfs.
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Post by jake732 Fri Jan 27, 2017 10:23 am

@jmanley32 wrote:Check out the beast offshore on 11th or so on 06z gfs.


waaaaayyyy to far out for me to even look Razz
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Post by Snow88 Fri Jan 27, 2017 11:27 am

Some light snow on the CMC for Monday
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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 27, 2017 11:33 am

I think this is going to be a big run incoming on the GFS for the 5th/6th, not like it's much more than eye candy at this point anyway lol

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Post by nutleyblizzard Fri Jan 27, 2017 11:52 am

@rb924119 wrote:I think this is going to be a big run incoming on the GFS for the 5th/6th, not like it's much more than eye candy at this point anyway lol
Swing and a miss. Hope its an off run. nooooo
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Post by Snow88 Fri Jan 27, 2017 11:53 am

@nutleyblizzard wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:I think this is going to be a big run incoming on the GFS for the 5th/6th, not like it's much more than eye candy at this point anyway lol
Swing and a miss. Hope its an off run. nooooo

I like where the GFS is. Weak low off the coast.

CMC is an inland runner.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 27, 2017 11:54 am

@rb924119 wrote:I think this is going to be a big run incoming on the GFS for the 5th/6th, not like it's much more than eye candy at this point anyway lol
complete miss at surface how is 500mb?
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Jan 27, 2017 11:54 am

we have plenty of time to fix things
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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 27, 2017 11:58 am

GFS looked confused on that run because it kept sending short waves and spokes of vorticity across the CONUS, and didn't look like it know what to do with them all; didn't know which one to focus on. The CMC seemed much more reasonable to me at H5, although even that appeared a bit suspect to me as it entered the West. Can't look deeply right now, but it might be doing something wonky out in the East-Pac.

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Post by nutleyblizzard Fri Jan 27, 2017 11:59 am

@Snow88 wrote:
@nutleyblizzard wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:I think this is going to be a big run incoming on the GFS for the 5th/6th, not like it's much more than eye candy at this point anyway lol
Swing and a miss. Hope its an off run. nooooo

I like where the GFS is. Weak low off the coast.

CMC is an inland runner.
To be honest, like Frank I'm very excited for that time period. With multiple vorts on the map, models are having issues with which one to key on. We need to try not to model hump on every run this far out.
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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 27, 2017 12:03 pm

@nutleyblizzard wrote:
@Snow88 wrote:
@nutleyblizzard wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:I think this is going to be a big run incoming on the GFS for the 5th/6th, not like it's much more than eye candy at this point anyway lol
Swing and a miss. Hope its an off run. nooooo

I like where the GFS is. Weak low off the coast.

CMC is an inland runner.
To be honest, like Frank I'm very excited for that time period. With multiple vorts on the map, models are having issues with which one to key on. We need to try not to model hump on every run this far out.

Agreed!! Ensembles and intuition

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Post by amugs Fri Jan 27, 2017 12:04 pm

EURO EPS says cold from the elongated STrat Polar Vortex

These are 850 maps but translated to cold below
Nice warmth is AK
Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 4 Eps_t850a_5d_exnamer_21(4)

days 6-10 cold
Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 4 Eps_t850a_5d_exnamer_41(4)

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 4 Eps_t850a_5d_exnamer_61(7)

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Post by hyde345 Fri Jan 27, 2017 12:08 pm

All global operationals are pretty useless beyond 5 days and the GFS in general has been awful lately. I don't trust it as far as I can throw it.
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Post by sroc4 Fri Jan 27, 2017 12:49 pm

@rb924119 wrote:GFS looked confused on that run because it kept sending short waves and spokes of vorticity across the CONUS, and didn't look like it know what to do with them all; didn't know which one to focus on. The CMC seemed much more reasonable to me at H5, although even that appeared a bit suspect to me as it entered the West. Can't look deeply right now, but it might be doing something wonky out in the East-Pac.

There seems to be a little bit of a war regarding the proggression of the MJO from the GEFs vs the rest really. Regarding the 5th-7th system the CMC cutting unfort fits if the European, along with most of the other models (Ukie, CMC, Japanese) MJO progression holds true. The GEFS led the way with the current progression of 8-1-2, and the euro played catch up with it. We shall see/hope this is the case once again.

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Post by amugs Fri Jan 27, 2017 1:03 pm

From two mets about the MJO

The MJO helped set off the pattern change that we are seeing now, and the wave breaking in the Pacific it helped set off keeps its effects going a bit longer. But it initially came through in such a warm regime with a strong PAC Jet that there was a huge lag between the MJO phase and our actual temperatures.

I'm currently analyzing the MJO, I'm skeptical of all guidance right now as we all should be, however I currently think that a compromise between the ECMWF and GEFS is most likely, leaving tropical forcing and background state plus omega Arctic North Pacific ridge leading to snow for all of us.

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 4 IMG_2044.thumb.PNG.477f26d0e881414ce76f840332f89a4a

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Post by sroc4 Fri Jan 27, 2017 1:24 pm

@amugs wrote:From two mets about the MJO

The MJO helped set off the pattern change that we are seeing now, and the wave breaking in the Pacific it helped set off keeps its effects going a bit longer. But it initially came through in such a warm regime with a strong PAC Jet that there was a huge lag between the MJO phase and our actual temperatures.

I'm currently analyzing the MJO, I'm skeptical of all guidance right now as we all should be, however I currently think that a compromise between the ECMWF and GEFS is most likely, leaving tropical forcing and background state plus omega Arctic North Pacific ridge leading to snow for all of us.

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 4 IMG_2044.thumb.PNG.477f26d0e881414ce76f840332f89a4a

This as much of an educated guess as any Mugs.  Even still a compromise still has our MJO come out in late 5-6 which may still allow our SE ridge to flex if the -EPO/-WPO arctic blocking regime is over modeled at all, and or axis is shifted west.  After all this entire winter we have been under the background influence of La Nina forcings. So if other pattern enhancers do not end up being as strong as originally thought then that SE ridge pops back up. There are no gaurantees either way at this stage.  It is encouraging words though from JM

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by amugs Fri Jan 27, 2017 1:46 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@amugs wrote:From two mets about the MJO

The MJO helped set off the pattern change that we are seeing now, and the wave breaking in the Pacific it helped set off keeps its effects going a bit longer. But it initially came through in such a warm regime with a strong PAC Jet that there was a huge lag between the MJO phase and our actual temperatures.

I'm currently analyzing the MJO, I'm skeptical of all guidance right now as we all should be, however I currently think that a compromise between the ECMWF and GEFS is most likely, leaving tropical forcing and background state plus omega Arctic North Pacific ridge leading to snow for all of us.

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 4 IMG_2044.thumb.PNG.477f26d0e881414ce76f840332f89a4a

This as much of an educated guess as any Mugs.  Even still a compromise still has our MJO come out in late 5-6 which may still allow our SE ridge to flex if the -EPO/-WPO arctic blocking regime is over modeled at all, and or axis is shifted west.  After all this entire winter we have been under the background influence of La Nina forcings.   So if other pattern enhancers do not end up being as strong as originally thought then that SE ridge pops back up.  There are no guarantees either way at this stage.  It is encouraging words though from JM

Scott this guy is phenomenal with this as a LR forecaster like Tom (Isotherm) Frank, you, Armando etc. here.
We have been discussing that the models have not been or lagging big time with teh MJO pulse/trop forcing. He loves the time frame from now until Feb 12thish-14th. We shall see but at least we have something in the works.

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