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Wx Banter Thread 2.0

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Post by Quietace Wed Feb 01, 2017 5:54 pm

Finally got a CocoRaHS gauge at home(Needed to find money in the budget its $39.75 with shipping). Have been taking the ones here at school for a year or so. Also finally going to a skywarn class in April to get that done after a numerous amount of years wanting to.

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 01, 2017 7:04 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Nobody gave me any love on my new avatar huh!  Are you all asleep at the wheel or do you see people like this regularly?

Am I supposed to know who that is?

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Post by track17 Wed Feb 01, 2017 7:24 pm

I am thinking toms river may hit 80 this February at this rate lol

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Post by Guest Wed Feb 01, 2017 8:41 pm

Frank it's just a random mental patient in an insane asylum off of google. Thought it was appropriate for what many on this board think of me at times.

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Post by amugs Wed Feb 01, 2017 10:10 pm

Watch the last 15 days of Feb and the first week and half of March 8-12 thish we get 20" plus of snow and barbaric cold one MECS and one HECS. People will flip after another abnormally warm winter. I'll rejoice like no tomorrow.

Personally our base state going into winter was still Nino the tremendous warmth over the arctic, oceans were warm when we started winter, if the fn NAO and AO could ever get their acts together we'd have a 2010-11, solar has really been so unopportunistic - no sunspots or coronal holes for days (10 to be exact when from xmas to Jan 5th that stretch sucked)and then when the pattern starts to change it acts up thus bombarding earth with high levels of rays that bring tremendous North Lights but F up our pattern/blocking last 9 days. Oh and when it was quiet it got cold from the 5th to the 12/13th, I know just one variable in the equation but the size of the latest coronal hole is the size of Australia that is facing earth by some estimations.

I have 14" of snow IMBY so far not bad my average is 34" so I need a couple of Mothra Zilla's to help put within range of Normal.

NAO July correlation throw it out this year did not work, AO in October correlation along with it. Siberian Snow Growth correlation has not performed well. Al pointed out the Se ridge which was so frickin strong due to anomalous warm fall just rolled into winter - like Godzilla Nino last year - when the EPO relaxed it roared back.

I am not giving up the fight by any means just deflated and discouraged with yesterday's runs/flip. 10-12 days of Met winter will be down teh drain to a degree and for Frank whom I tremendously respect and follow since he was 16 on the channel 7 board, hoping part of this call verifies!

Weenies need to unite and bring positive juju to this weather world,

Keep the Faith peeps.

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Post by RJB8525 Thu Feb 02, 2017 8:31 am

Punxsutawney Phil says 6 more weeks of winter!
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 02, 2017 9:19 am

RJB8525 wrote:Punxsutawney Phil says 6 more weeks of winter!

nooooo

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Post by billg315 Thu Feb 02, 2017 9:44 am

RJB8525 wrote:Punxsutawney Phil says 6 more weeks of winter!

Six more weeks of "winter"  . . . or six more weeks of THIS winter? The two may not be synonymous.

I've become skeptical of rodent forecasters anyway. The squirrels in my yard were scurrying around, feverishly digging, in full-on "we're going to have a cold snowy winter" mode back in October-November. Turns out they were just drunk from my recycling container.
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Post by RJB8525 Thu Feb 02, 2017 9:53 am

billg315 wrote:
RJB8525 wrote:Punxsutawney Phil says 6 more weeks of winter!

Six more weeks of "winter"  . . . or six more weeks of THIS winter? The two may not be synonymous.

I've become skeptical of rodent forecasters anyway. The squirrels in my yard were scurrying around, feverishly digging, in full-on "we're going to have a cold snowy winter" mode back in October-November. Turns out they were just drunk from my recycling container.

lol Staten Island Chuck says spring comes early

I've been seeing a lot of woodpeckers recently

Millton Mel also says spring comes early
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Post by amugs Thu Feb 02, 2017 9:59 am

RJB8525 wrote:Punxsutawney Phil says 6 more weeks of winter!

Staten Island Chuck said an early spring - so goes the winter pattern - interior winter.

We shall - early indication of this SSWE showing the PV dumps teh cold air into the PAC on latest model runs but they suck so we'll see - 2011-12 is ringing a bell here - Europe is about to get crazy cold and it will snow again into London - most of the cold this year has been locked up on that side of the world.




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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by RJB8525 Thu Feb 02, 2017 10:09 am

Wx Banter Thread 2.0 - Page 5 Groundhog-Day
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Post by rb924119 Thu Feb 02, 2017 10:17 am

amugs wrote:
RJB8525 wrote:Punxsutawney Phil says 6 more weeks of winter!

Staten Island Chuck said an early spring - so goes the winter pattern - interior winter.

We shall - early indication of this SSWE showing the PV dumps teh cold air into the PAC on latest model runs but they suck so we'll see - 2011-12 is ringing a bell here - Europe is about to get crazy cold and it will snow again into London - most of the cold this year has been locked up on that side of the world.

Low solar + westerly QBO = Eastern Atlantic + Western Europe blocking, is also = no eastern North America + northwestern Atlantic blocking. So far those equations are continuing to prove true :/

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Post by SNOW MAN Thu Feb 02, 2017 1:53 pm

WOW !!! 2 hours and 9 minutes with no posts. You can tell the weather is boring. silent
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Post by Guest Thu Feb 02, 2017 2:05 pm

The highs are really high and the lows are really low. For now, I'm still hoping for the 8th to take a turn for the better. It wouldn't take much, at least for my area.

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Post by Grselig Thu Feb 02, 2017 2:05 pm

SNOW MAN wrote:WOW !!! 2 hours and 9 minutes with no posts. You can tell the weather is boring. silent

Very sad. And based on last weeks thoughts, it would be nonstop action today. Just depressing. pale
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Post by Guest Thu Feb 02, 2017 2:10 pm

I think back to the last storm. There was the anticipation from days and days of tracking, followed by the disappointment of going to bed the night it arrived thinking it wasn't to get cold enough to snow and lastly, the joy of waking up to find that it had changed over during the night. It's a fun ride even if the ending isn't always what we hoped for.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 02, 2017 2:15 pm

Drinking heavily this weekend.


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Post by jake732 Thu Feb 02, 2017 2:16 pm

SNOW MAN wrote:WOW !!! 2 hours and 9 minutes with no posts. You can tell the weather is boring. silent

calm before the storm!! tongue geek shout shocked
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Post by Guest Thu Feb 02, 2017 2:19 pm

Seeing as we are in a bit of a lull, can anybody recommend some good introductory books on meteorology? I've looked at a few websites, but I find I end up with 10 pages open because I'm constantly having to look up terms.

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Post by essexcountypete Thu Feb 02, 2017 2:20 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Drinking heavily this weekend.


Uh oh. Big silence in the Long Range thread and now Frank is planning his alcohol consumption well ahead of time. Not good.
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Post by amugs Thu Feb 02, 2017 2:20 pm

Grselig wrote:
SNOW MAN wrote:WOW !!! 2 hours and 9 minutes with no posts. You can tell the weather is boring. silent

Very sad.  And based on last weeks thoughts, it would be nonstop action today.  Just depressing. pale

Yup, we went from a great every three days of possible snow storms to a real clutserf_ _ _ _ pattern that could yield some frozen with a SWFE Mon night/Tuesday morning but seem to be fizzling now to - attention is turning to 7 days out again. Thi is trying all PATIENCE ON ALL WX BOARDS. I am telling you we will have a couple/ maybe few weeks stretch from mid/later Feb to about the 8th of March and then spring - I am literally going to pump out my swimming pool because it has not been an ice rink since Jan 12th - almost as bad as last year.

Started off so promising in Dec (ice rink that is) with it open for business from the 14thish to the 22nd, Jan about 5 days from the 7th till the 12th

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 02, 2017 3:12 pm

essexcountypete wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Drinking heavily this weekend.


Uh oh. Big silence in the Long Range thread and now Frank is planning his alcohol consumption well ahead of time. Not good.

It's true. I am not sure the MJO amplification we'll see is enough to combat the QBO/PAC JET.

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Post by SNOW MAN Thu Feb 02, 2017 3:49 pm

I'm getting nervous because if the EMPEROR is having doubts about our chances of getting anymore decent snowstorms that's not good. Shhh if you listen closely you can hear taps playing softly for our dying Winter season going out with a whimper.
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Post by rb924119 Thu Feb 02, 2017 4:10 pm

I fold, wave the white flag, give up. Bring on Spring. After seeing the guidance today the seasonal tendency looks to stand firm. I'm done.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 02, 2017 4:11 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
essexcountypete wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Drinking heavily this weekend.


Uh oh. Big silence in the Long Range thread and now Frank is planning his alcohol consumption well ahead of time. Not good.

It's true. I am not sure the MJO amplification we'll see is enough to combat the QBO/PAC JET.
Since nada work (well in my profession, I have my hustles lol, no nothing illegal) for me yet I am way ahead of ya Frank lol, starting shortly. Whatever happens the rest of this winter is what happens, thats the view I have to take at this pt., just for kicks look at the euro wind gusts for the cutter (yeah it prolly won't verify, cutter winds usually never do)

Wx Banter Thread 2.0 - Page 5 Ecmwf_25

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Post by Dunnzoo Thu Feb 02, 2017 4:49 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Drinking heavily this weekend.


Need an "End of winter" gtg soon.... drunken drunken

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Snowfall winter of 2023-2024  17.5"    

Snowfall winter of 2022-2023       6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by frank 638 Thu Feb 02, 2017 4:59 pm

lee golberg was saying the 2nd week of feb will be very stormy will this be snow or boring wind and rain any thoughts

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