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Post by Quietace Thu Feb 02, 2017 4:59 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Drinking heavily this weekend.


Need an "End of winter" gtg soon....   drunken drunken
I can ship some snow down to you guys at the get together so you can feel what its like to have a snow pack Very Happy

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Post by Guest Thu Feb 02, 2017 5:05 pm

rb924119 posted this about half a page up
"Low solar + westerly QBO = Eastern Atlantic + Western Europe blocking, is also = no eastern North America + northwestern Atlantic blocking. So far those equations are continuing to prove true :/"
I have a bone to pick with the METS on this board. Respectfully if you guys knew about this quote (whatever it means) then why didn't someone just post this at the beginning of winter so we would never have gotten our hopes up. Reading about all these great signs based on your posts for a month wasn't even necessary it seems like.

.....and Janet how can we have an "end of winter GTG" when it never even started. It's basically been a cool spring for 2 months.

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Post by Guest Thu Feb 02, 2017 5:10 pm

Frank posted at the end of last winter that this winter didn't look good.. who knows, maybe one storm will come along and raise this winter from terrible to just not good.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 02, 2017 5:12 pm

@TheAresian wrote:Frank posted at the end of last winter that this winter didn't look good.. who knows, maybe one storm will come along and raise this winter from terrible to just not good.
There are always sthose sneaky storms, I always use Sandy cuz as far as I know we were NOT expecting such a storm to pan out, in fact I have some of the spegetti models from 8 days out and most were OTS, but those that took it into NJ NY had me saying thats just unusual (unusual can often mean the result).
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 02, 2017 5:15 pm

syosnow94 wrote:rb924119 posted this about half a page up  
"Low solar + westerly QBO = Eastern Atlantic + Western Europe blocking, is also = no eastern North America + northwestern Atlantic blocking. So far those equations are continuing to prove true :/"
I have a bone to pick with the METS on this board.  Respectfully if you guys knew about this quote (whatever it means) then why didn't someone just post this at the beginning of winter so we would never have gotten our hopes up.  Reading about all these great signs based on your posts for a month wasn't even necessary it seems like.

.....and Janet how can we have an "end of winter GTG" when it never even started.  It's basically been a cool spring for 2 months.  
LOL!! It didn't begin did it, well it hasnt been warm like last year but with the lack of snow for more than a day has been crummy.  I honestly thought the avatar was a silence of the lambs or hanibal pic, not a fam of gore fest movies so I do not put myself in the way of those kinda things. Def have had clients like that though.  I will be a therapist before too long (If I can pass that damn state exam, i hate that I do not test well, give me a paper and the teacher will want to publish it), my starting hourly rate will be $50 an hour but $40 for any of you guys : )

I just googled weather weenie, ha look at my new avatar lol
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Post by amugs Thu Feb 02, 2017 5:21 pm

I am giving it one more week - if nothing starts to improve synoptically pattern wise I for one shall throw it in. My snow weenie self is holding out hope for one more week if nada then da Mugs will disappear for awhile.

I will return to OTI sector 12 and lavish in the beauty tehre with my good friends and lady friends!

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 02, 2017 6:12 pm

@amugs wrote:I am giving it one more week - if nothing starts to improve synoptically pattern wise I for one shall throw it in. My snow weenie self is holding out hope for one more week if nada then da Mugs will disappear for awhile.

I will return to OTI sector 12 and lavish in the beauty tehre with my good friends and lady friends!
Never been mugs, should I dare enter, LOL?
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Post by devsman Thu Feb 02, 2017 6:23 pm

This place is starting to remind me of a bachelor party after the stripper leaves.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Feb 02, 2017 6:52 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:rb924119 posted this about half a page up  
"Low solar + westerly QBO = Eastern Atlantic + Western Europe blocking, is also = no eastern North America + northwestern Atlantic blocking. So far those equations are continuing to prove true :/"
I have a bone to pick with the METS on this board.  Respectfully if you guys knew about this quote (whatever it means) then why didn't someone just post this at the beginning of winter so we would never have gotten our hopes up.  Reading about all these great signs based on your posts for a month wasn't even necessary it seems like.

.....and Janet how can we have an "end of winter GTG" when it never even started.  It's basically been a cool spring for 2 months.  
LOL!! It didn't begin did it, well it hasnt been warm like last year but with the lack of snow for more than a day has been crummy.  I honestly thought the avatar was a silence of the lambs or hanibal pic, not a fam of gore fest movies so I do not put myself in the way of those kinda things. Def have had clients like that though.  I will be a therapist before too long (If I can pass that damn state exam, i hate that I do not test well, give me a paper and the teacher will want to publish it), my starting hourly rate will be $50 an hour but $40 for any of you guys : )

I just googled weather weenie, ha look at my new avatar lol

Yes but January just finished 5.5-7 Degrees above normal for every reporting station in Uptons area, NYC, LI, CT and NNJ.

19 Months in a row and counting. Just absurd.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Feb 02, 2017 6:54 pm

@amugs wrote:I am giving it one more week - if nothing starts to improve synoptically pattern wise I for one shall throw it in. My snow weenie self is holding out hope for one more week if nada then da Mugs will disappear for awhile.

I will return to OTI sector 12 and lavish in the beauty tehre with my good friends and lady friends!

It's about time.
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Post by rb924119 Thu Feb 02, 2017 7:17 pm

syosnow94 wrote:rb924119 posted this about half a page up  
"Low solar + westerly QBO = Eastern Atlantic + Western Europe blocking, is also = no eastern North America + northwestern Atlantic blocking. So far those equations are continuing to prove true :/"
I have a bone to pick with the METS on this board.  Respectfully if you guys knew about this quote (whatever it means) then why didn't someone just post this at the beginning of winter so we would never have gotten our hopes up.  Reading about all these great signs based on your posts for a month wasn't even necessary it seems like.

.....and Janet how can we have an "end of winter GTG" when it never even started.  It's basically been a cool spring for 2 months.  

Actually, there were a few of us, Tom, myself, and Frank who were hesitant at best about this winter being good, if my memory serves me correctly. But when you're dealing with something as fluid as the atmosphere, and you begin to see things changing in real-time and modeling, your outlook tends to change based on what you are seeing. Things were/are looking great in the modeling back in December, then again last month, and now for the second half of this month, but so far, every good period has been transient and out dueled by the warmth because of factors not seen or shown until they got much closer in time. It's not necessarily that the excitement was in excess, as there have been periods of more typical and active winter weather, but I think more that each time has been less than expected once it came time for verification. There's only so much you can see at long lead times of two weeks or more, but a lot more for all of us to learn from.

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Post by Fededle22 Thu Feb 02, 2017 7:42 pm

Really depressing. A week ago there was talk about two big storms impacting our area with significant snow. Now, we have a 10% chance of snow for each storm. I know that weather is extremely hard to predict but this is getting ridiculous. No insult to the weather experts on this board and in the media. If we don't get anything in February, the chances get smaller each passing day of March to get snow.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 02, 2017 8:00 pm

@Fededle22 wrote:Really depressing. A week ago there was talk about two big storms impacting our area with significant snow.  Now, we have a 10% chance of snow for each storm. I know that weather is extremely hard to predict but this is getting ridiculous. No insult to the weather experts on this board and in the media. If we don't get anything in February, the chances get smaller each passing day of March to get snow.

Tomorrow the Sunday storm will go down to 5%

Yes, I am depressed.

However, guidance still like the period between the 10th and 15th.

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Post by amugs Thu Feb 02, 2017 8:01 pm

@rb924119 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:rb924119 posted this about half a page up  
"Low solar + westerly QBO = Eastern Atlantic + Western Europe blocking, is also = no eastern North America + northwestern Atlantic blocking. So far those equations are continuing to prove true :/"
I have a bone to pick with the METS on this board.  Respectfully if you guys knew about this quote (whatever it means) then why didn't someone just post this at the beginning of winter so we would never have gotten our hopes up.  Reading about all these great signs based on your posts for a month wasn't even necessary it seems like.

.....and Janet how can we have an "end of winter GTG" when it never even started.  It's basically been a cool spring for 2 months.  

Actually, there were a few of us, Tom, myself, and Frank who were hesitant at best about this winter being good, if my memory serves me correctly. But when you're dealing with something as fluid as the atmosphere, and you begin to see things changing in real-time and modeling, your outlook tends to change based on what you are seeing. Things were/are looking great in the modeling back in December, then again last month, and now for the second half of this month, but so far, every good period has been transient and out dueled by the warmth because of factors not seen or shown until they got much closer in time. It's not necessarily that the excitement was in excess, as there have been periods of more typical and active winter weather, but I think more that each time has been less than expected once it came time for verification. There's only so much you can see at long lead times of two weeks or more, but a lot more for all of us to learn from.

Well stated Ray - guidance in the models and indices can only give you a snapshot. We have examined SST's in the big three, AAM, MT, Fall patterns, Snow growth and ice extent in Siberia and Canada, correlating factors AO and NAO October and August months, solar activity, analogs (years comparable), ENSO, IO,wooly caterpillars, fur on animals, terrestrial alignments, egg corn production and size, squirrel habits and size, spider webs and size and tehol' salty up in walton NY and his August prediction (really I talk to him yearly when I am up there - SOB called it each year by noting his animal's coats of hair/fur, Doc's aches and pains, SNOW MANS gut feeling and CP's awakening from hibernation timeframe and mood = ugtaz when it comes to what will happen! Only kiddin' on the ugatz part , but really this is all the information that is compiled - except for a few named latter here and we try our best to pour ability to make a call. It has been a humbling and learned experience and reminds me a lot of again 11-12 when we had great pattern 7-10 days and in some cases 5 days away only to go poof.

CP - I know you sly ol' coot going to sniff out melady friends just like when you over threw me as KSW and sent me on my way like Washington (Washington slept here - men sent away and woman stayed to take care of THINGS!!)


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Post by nutleyblizzard Thu Feb 02, 2017 8:40 pm


Everybody just needs to take a deep breath and relax. I never bought into a pattern change to begin with; and heck don't get me started with this -NAO block regime that may or may not take place. The last time I checked, we haven't seen one since 2010. Having said that, I remain very confident we will see at least one major snow event before all is said and done. We are entering an active period where there will be plenty of chances for us. Since I already stated that the pattern reversal will never take place, we will be dependent on proper timing instead. All it takes is to be in a transient cold pattern and a well timed vort comes by. Up until now our luck has been bad, but I for one refuse to jump off the ship.Wx Banter Thread 2.0 - Page 6 Edward10
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Post by SoulSingMG Fri Feb 03, 2017 1:21 am

@nutleyblizzard wrote:
Everybody just needs to take a deep breath and relax. I never bought into a pattern change to begin with; and heck don't get me started with this -NAO block regime that may or may not take place. The last time I checked, we haven't seen one since 2010. Having said that, I remain very confident we will see at least one major snow event before all is said and done. We are entering an active period where there will be plenty of chances for us. Since I already stated that the pattern reversal will never take place, we will be dependent on proper timing instead. All it takes is to be in a transient cold pattern and a well timed vort comes by. Up until now our luck has been bad, but I for one refuse to jump off the ship.Wx Banter Thread 2.0 - Page 6 Edward10

I can't breathe. I'm too busy trying to get my head about the floodwaters from all the RAIN we've had this winter...with yet another rainstorm on the docket! cheers tongue
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Post by docstox12 Fri Feb 03, 2017 3:27 am

@SoulSingMG wrote:
@nutleyblizzard wrote:
Everybody just needs to take a deep breath and relax. I never bought into a pattern change to begin with; and heck don't get me started with this -NAO block regime that may or may not take place. The last time I checked, we haven't seen one since 2010. Having said that, I remain very confident we will see at least one major snow event before all is said and done. We are entering an active period where there will be plenty of chances for us. Since I already stated that the pattern reversal will never take place, we will be dependent on proper timing instead. All it takes is to be in a transient cold pattern and a well timed vort comes by. Up until now our luck has been bad, but I for one refuse to jump off the ship.Wx Banter Thread 2.0 - Page 6 Edward10

I can't breathe. I'm too busy trying to get my head about the floodwaters from all the RAIN we've had this winter...with yet another rainstorm on the docket! cheers tongue

However, in the "life hands you lemons make lemonade category", the draught this area had been suffering is finally coming to an end with area reservoirs getting up to almost normal levels for this time of year.
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Post by nutleyblizzard Fri Feb 03, 2017 6:08 am

Wx Banter Thread 2.0 - Page 6 63aab410
Godzilla after seeing last night's model runs.
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Post by docstox12 Fri Feb 03, 2017 6:22 am

@nutleyblizzard wrote:Wx Banter Thread 2.0 - Page 6 63aab410
Godzilla after seeing last night's model runs.

lol! lol! lol!
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Post by essexcountypete Fri Feb 03, 2017 7:23 am

@docstox12 wrote:
However, in the "life hands you lemons make lemonade category", the draught this area had been suffering is finally coming to an end with area reservoirs getting up to almost normal levels for this time of year.

Great point doc! We need one more good coastal and we'd be close to where we should be for the season.

You and Nutley have given me the strength to stay hopeful about winter, at least for a few more days.
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Post by docstox12 Fri Feb 03, 2017 7:48 am

Atta Boy Pete! When the going gets tough. the tough get going.Two full months of snow chances left and anything can happen!Let's face it we are gonna have ZERO chance for a snowstorm in July, so I'm hanging in there at least until the middle of March.That's throw the towel in time for me if there are no indications for any snow.
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Post by Guest Fri Feb 03, 2017 8:21 am

Is there anything in fantasy storm range?

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Post by Quietace Fri Feb 03, 2017 8:53 am

@TheAresian wrote:Is there anything in fantasy storm range?
Yes
See below:






































Wx Banter Thread 2.0 - Page 6 Giphy

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Post by Guest Fri Feb 03, 2017 9:10 am

Yikes!!! I've been Rick-Snowed!!!

Also, I wonder how often north-central/western Canada has Feb temps in the mid to upper 30s.

Wx Banter Thread 2.0 - Page 6 Gfs_t210

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Post by RJB8525 Fri Feb 03, 2017 9:40 am

oh man that's cruel ace LOL
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