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Wx Banter Thread 2.0

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 30, 2017 7:23 pm

syosnow94 wrote:I  beg you guys.  Go to the NWS home page and look at the posted winter weather advisories for tomorrow.  You'll all check into OTI quick..

Upton is soooooo friggin' conservative, last storm they did not post a WWA fro us until teh storm was 4 hours in on Sat Jan 7th - so I take it all with a grain of salt. Years ago we would have had a travel advisory up then it went to a Snow Advisory Rolling Eyes all for 1-3" of snow, 3-6/4-6= Winter Storm Warning for us now that may get you a WWA.

I know I do not have one but I am expecting 1-3" more like 2-3" for my area tomorrow.

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Post by hyde345 Mon Jan 30, 2017 7:28 pm

@amugs wrote:Frickin Lee Goldberg putting the Kabosh on our storm - those guys love to kill a storm don't they. They HUGGGG the GFS!!

It may turn out that he's correct but I don't see how you could say something so definitive when its 6 days out and its one GFS 18z run. Geez. That's something Amy Freeze would say.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 30, 2017 8:51 pm

It's because the EURO does not show it. Too many model huggers on TV!

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Post by billg315 Mon Jan 30, 2017 8:58 pm

Following up on my post from last Thursday (Page 39), Clipper storms in this area are the "Charlie Brown and Lucy with the Football" of winter storms. Rb correctly alluded to this today when the storm underperformed his projection. Every winter a Clipper (or three) threatens to bring a few inches of snow, and even though time and time again I see these things dramatically underperform or fizzle altogether I think, "maybe this is the time we really do get some decent snow out of a clipper." And we don't. lol. And I'm sure I'll do the same thing when the next one rolls through. Oh well.
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Post by Math23x7 Tue Jan 31, 2017 12:33 am

@billg315 wrote:Following up on my post from last Thursday (Page 39), Clipper storms in this area are the "Charlie Brown and Lucy with the Football" of winter storms. Rb correctly alluded to this today when the storm underperformed his projection. Every winter a Clipper (or three) threatens to bring a few inches of snow, and even though time and time again I see these things dramatically underperform or fizzle altogether I think, "maybe this is the time we really do get some decent snow out of a clipper." And we don't. lol. And I'm sure I'll do the same thing when the next one rolls through. Oh well.

But in some cases, when the conditions are just right, you can get a clipper that works out. 13 years ago, the January 14th-15th, 2004 clipper came with temperatures in the low teens. While CPK measured 0.15" of qpf, it measured 5.7" of snow making for a 38:1 snow ratio. Of course, this was lower than many surrounding areas. Newark measured 7.4", LaGuardia measured 6.8", and JFK measured 5.8". Portions of eastern LI got over 8" of snow out of this. Of course, immediately following this snow came record cold where I honestly thought CPK was going to get down to 0 degrees, especially considering it was 1 around midnight. But it was not meant to be.

For those of you who do not remember, January 2004 was a brutally cold month. In fact, if you take the first five days of that month, which were well above average, and replace them with the first five days of February 2004 which were around seasonal, it was colder than February 2015.

And as far as this clipper is concerned, here are two links:

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2004/15-Jan-04.html

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSOKX&e=200401152055

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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Jan 31, 2017 5:01 am

Over night runs were atrocious.
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Post by track17 Tue Jan 31, 2017 11:20 am

Yea skins i agree obvious this pattern change will not happen for us maybe people in the north.

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Post by jake732 Tue Jan 31, 2017 11:38 am

I HATE TO RANT BUT IM GOING TO ANYWAYS. THIS WINTER HAS BEEN THE WORST IN MY LIFETIME 100%. IT FEELS LIKE APRIL MOST DAYS WITH NO FRIEKIN SNOW AND NO SNOW IN THE FORECAST!!! PlZ GOD BRING SOME WHITE GOLD DOWN TO US AND IN BUNCES PLZ. ITS SO DAMN ANNOYING THAT THERE LOOKS TO BE NO HOPE AT ALL!!!!!!
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Post by nutleyblizzard Tue Jan 31, 2017 12:06 pm

@jake732 wrote:I HATE TO RANT BUT IM GOING TO ANYWAYS. THIS WINTER HAS BEEN THE WORST IN MY LIFETIME 100%. IT FEELS LIKE APRIL MOST DAYS WITH NO FRIEKIN SNOW AND NO SNOW IN THE FORECAST!!! PlZ GOD BRING SOME WHITE GOLD DOWN TO US AND IN BUNCES PLZ. ITS SO DAMN ANNOYING THAT THERE LOOKS TO BE NO HOPE AT ALL!!!!!!
Jake this is nothing compared to the 1980's. Fortunately there are a number of members on this site who were not around at the time. Other than the blizzard of '83, that was pretty much it. Think about it, sitting and stewing for an entire decade! I lived through it.
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Post by Grselig Tue Jan 31, 2017 12:28 pm

@nutleyblizzard wrote:
@jake732 wrote:I HATE TO RANT BUT IM GOING TO ANYWAYS. THIS WINTER HAS BEEN THE WORST IN MY LIFETIME 100%. IT FEELS LIKE APRIL MOST DAYS WITH NO FRIEKIN SNOW AND NO SNOW IN THE FORECAST!!! PlZ GOD BRING SOME WHITE GOLD DOWN TO US AND IN BUNCES PLZ. ITS SO DAMN ANNOYING THAT THERE LOOKS TO BE NO HOPE AT ALL!!!!!!
Jake this is nothing compared to the 1980's. Fortunately there are a number of members on this site who were not around at the time. Other than the blizzard of '83, that was pretty much it. Think about it, sitting and stewing for an entire decade! I lived through it.

That must have been torture. I remember the 80's. Grew up in them. I remember 83 well. Hagler fought the night before. Back when boxing was on TV. This winter is bad. We had great hope and its now fading. 8 inches for me so far. Plus a cold rain. Today's news is Depressing.
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Post by Guest Tue Jan 31, 2017 12:40 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@track17 wrote:I can't believe the polar vortex split. Early February was suppose to be good look at the temps tomorrow at the jersey shore and next week no chance of snow with those temps
The 5-6th period as Frank and isotherm have stated has potential and the 8th-10th has roidzilla potential, this far out do not worry about temp profiles yet.  The almost always trend colder. I am not even sweating it yet for the 5th let alone the 8th to 10th time frame.

How do you feel about this right about now????? And where is this pattern change? It seems like a change back to the same old thing CUTTERS! and transient cold.

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Post by Math23x7 Tue Jan 31, 2017 1:00 pm

It's 1 PM, one of the points in the day during snow events where NWS stations report snow totals. CPK usually does well at 1 PM and 4 PM reporting snow totals. Let's see if it does a good job this time around.

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Post by amugs Tue Jan 31, 2017 2:21 pm

SYO - from Feb 6th thread
not incredible......totally par for the course this winter.  good news is cutter forecast to follow.  That will verify.[/quote]


Really? We had as of 12Z & OZ runs a block with trough in the east and this morning at 6Z and 12Z for tis time frame we have neither and the EPO block regresses with a Scan rRdge that is further N that forecasted? In a matter of hours we went from what could a great snowy period with cold to now . Why so cynical Jim and how is it par for this winter so far? Did we say mid jan and late jan to rock? No we talked about the warmth that would follow the period of BN and a snow event or two. Maybe you see this ass par for the course but state that.

Cutters verify cause the pattern is not as complex as they are for snowstorms. This is good news? How?

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Post by Guest Tue Jan 31, 2017 2:48 pm

@amugs wrote:SYO - from Feb 6th thread
not incredible......totally par for the course this winter.  good news is cutter forecast to follow.  That will verify.


Really? We had as of 12Z & OZ runs a block with trough in the east and this morning at 6Z and 12Z for tis time frame we have neither and the EPO block regresses with a Scan rRdge that is further N that forecasted?  In a matter of hours we went from what could a great snowy period with cold to now . Why so cynical Jim and how is it par for this winter so far? Did we say mid jan and late jan to rock? No we talked about the warmth that would follow the period of BN and a snow event or two. Maybe you see this ass par for the course but state that.

Cutters verify cause the pattern is not as complex as they are for snowstorms. This is good news? How? [/quote]

The good news part was sarcasm.

For well over a week we have heard of a major pattern change and multiple snow threats as per the GFS every 2 or 3 days starting this past Saturday the 28th. We got this little 1-2" clipper today, but the storms people have been harping or honking about for Super Bowl Sunday which at one point was a possible SECS (yes I know it's not totally dead yet) and the 8th -10th period (where yesterday we had possible roidzilla potential to now a cutter) have trended very poorly like the entire winter. You tend to always be incredibly optimistic about the snow chances and then when they don't happen move onto the next one and that's fine for you. I am a realist. My post states the facts of what has happened and what is currently (today) forecast to happen. Yes I realize this can change, and no I am not hugging a model run. Just a realist here living through a period of crap winter-weather snow-wise when every day I read about all these glorious opportunities moving forward. just look at the latest post from Tom on the LR thread where he says he was never really enthused about early Feb. and now is focusing on mid to late Feb. Everything keeps getting pushed back and before you know it winter is over. For Christs sake even Frank said if the Late January through early Feb. period (Feb 10th) then he would retire. Well guess what, as of now it aint looking good.

.................But Frank don't retire. We love you.

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Post by sroc4 Tue Jan 31, 2017 3:04 pm

Believe me I'm right there with you all.

Wx Banter Thread 2.0 - Page 2 Meme10
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Math23x7 Tue Jan 31, 2017 3:18 pm

Of all 366 days in the year (including February 29th for leap years), February 7th remains the only day in which the temperature in Central Park has not been at or above 55 degrees in it's 148+ years of record keeping. The record high that date is 54 degrees. The second "lowest" record high is 58 on January 16th. I wonder if the potential blowtorch next week ends up being moved up to the 7th???

Of course this temperature record for the 7th has to be the most fragile of them all. Of course, we know which record is the least fragile: The all time record low of -15 in 1934 on February 9th. I don't think that record will ever be broken, at least in my lifetime or anyone else's on this forum.

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Post by amugs Tue Jan 31, 2017 3:40 pm

@Math23x7 wrote:Of all 366 days in the year (including February 29th for leap years), February 7th remains the only day in which the temperature in Central Park has not been at or above 55 degrees in it's 148+ years of record keeping. The record high that date is 54 degrees. The second "lowest" record high is 58 on January 16th. I wonder if the potential blowtorch next week ends up being moved up to the 7th???

Of course this temperature record for the 7th has to be the most fragile of them all.  Of course, we know which record is the least fragile: The all time record low of -15 in 1934 on February 9th.  I don't think that record will ever be broken, at least in my lifetime or anyone else's on this forum.

Math that is pretty funny 2-7 is a lucky date for SNOWMISER!! It too shall fall one day! Evil or Very Mad

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Post by Guest Tue Jan 31, 2017 4:30 pm

While we're looking with temporarily muted disappointment at the frustration of the next 8-10 days, I thought it would be fun to look back at how we felt about last winter.

1) by Frank_Wx on Sun Apr 10, 2016 10:12 am

Snow88 wrote:
How does the snow miss the area to the south in April? WTF is going on.


Inverted troughs suck

2)Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Fri Mar 18, 2016 8:31 am
I'm breaking my vow of silence regarding the last torment and tease from the winter that wasn't. So now the Euro caves to the GFS? If the GFS was showing the big storm last night it would have caved to the Euro. It's like the models are playing a sadistic game and we're the playing pieces.

Why the F did I let myself get suckered into this again? And why would I expect this Sh!t hole of a winter to finally produce.

Change my F to an F- . I know this was the second warmest Met winter ever but this has to be the warmest November to March period ever, not even close.

And just one last one

3)Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Feb 20, 2016 8:13 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
Sunday night threat 200 miles to our south and mid week threat now hitting Chicago on the 6Z GFS, the good news is an 800 mile shift east and we're good.

You just can't make this winter up. My D- may fall to an F by the end of next week unless I curve the scores.


The scary part is I already have an idea of what next winter may be like. And it's not pretty...

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 31, 2017 5:00 pm

Sorry but I think I'm go take a break. Nothing is working out and things are not look very positive. Now there could b a slight chance things look better come the weekend but imo tgats a long shot. If by 11th we haven't seen anything I'd like it to warm up and b dry.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Jan 31, 2017 5:11 pm

@TheAresian wrote:While we're looking with temporarily muted disappointment at the frustration of the next 8-10 days, I thought it would be fun to look back at how we felt about last winter.

1)  by Frank_Wx on Sun Apr 10, 2016 10:12 am

   Snow88 wrote:
   How does the snow miss the area to the south in April? WTF is going on.


Inverted troughs suck

2)Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Fri Mar 18, 2016 8:31 am
I'm breaking my vow of silence regarding the last torment and tease from the winter that wasn't. So now the Euro caves to the GFS? If the GFS was showing the big storm last night it would have caved to the Euro. It's like the models are playing a sadistic game and we're the playing pieces.

Why the F did I let myself get suckered into this again? And why would I expect this Sh!t hole of a winter to finally produce.

Change my F to an F- . I know this was the second warmest Met winter ever but this has to be the warmest November to March period ever, not even close.

And just one last one

3)Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Feb 20, 2016 8:13 am

   CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
   Sunday night threat 200 miles to our south and mid week threat now hitting Chicago on the 6Z  GFS, the good news is an 800 mile shift east and we're good.

   You just can't make this winter up. My D- may fall to an F by the end of next week unless I curve the scores.


The scary part is I already have an idea of what next winter may be like. And it's not pretty...

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Post by Guest Tue Jan 31, 2017 5:18 pm

And Frank warned us almost a year ago about this winter.

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Post by HectorO Tue Jan 31, 2017 5:28 pm

Historically, winters don't look so good after El Nino a year later. But I threw the towel like 2 weeks ago. Who knows how long the cold will last and by the time moisture comes around it will probably be 70. I'm sure the end of February we'll be seeing spring weather.
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Post by Guest Tue Jan 31, 2017 5:32 pm

While it's discouraging, I don't give up because it really only takes one storm to make an entire season. Last winter was the perfect example of that. For most of you, the blizzard was the season maker in an otherwise abominable winter.

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Post by HectorO Tue Jan 31, 2017 6:08 pm

@TheAresian wrote:While it's discouraging, I don't give up because it really only takes one storm to make an entire season. Last winter was the perfect example of that. For most of you, the blizzard was the season maker in an otherwise abominable winter.

That's debatable. It was a big snowstorm, but hard to make up for an entire winter of me wearing just a light hoodie 90% of the time. And plus after that huge storm there was an intense melt fest. Late the next day like half foot was gone and Tuesday looked like a foot melted. I still consider last winter a disaster.
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Post by amugs Tue Jan 31, 2017 6:37 pm

Wow how one frigin day of model runs can kuse sucked the life out of a place. Jesus tjis was target ed to be a good month with many factors coming into play favorably. Reminds me alot of 2011-12 when thimg looked great in the LR only to fail in the MR. Hey, u never know what the 15th to 15th period can bring us, snow sleet or rain and warmth.

Only winters that I will get excited for in the future are ones that show the -EPO with warm waters in the GOA and ring along the WC with a weak nino. 
NAO sucks
AO is right there
SUN can't stop itself 
We need a orchestrated vilcanice eruption of pac islands and highblattitue eruptions to bring us back to the glory day

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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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