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Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th

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Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th - Page 6 Empty Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th

Post by Guest Mon Feb 06, 2017 6:07 pm

Frank I'm no rookie when you see the same post twice from me it's a phone problem.

Upton Disco says most likely 4-8" LI. Higher totals n shore lower s shore

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Post by algae888 Mon Feb 06, 2017 6:15 pm

12z para gfs...
Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th - Page 6 Gfsp_asnow_neus_15
Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th - Page 6 Gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_12
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Post by Guest Mon Feb 06, 2017 6:19 pm

I think Frank was referencing my personal favorite storm of all time. It was rain and turned to snow about 9 pm. Snowed till 3 am. Picked up 19" in 6 hours. YES I KNOW WHAT I JUST TYPED. it switched over in Philadelphia first and they got slammed. I remember the weather channel reporting 2-4" per hour rates and I was like yeah right!!!!

We need Math to give us the correct date. HANDS DIWN MY FAVORITE EVENT EVER. WATCHED EVERY FLAKE IN FRONT OF THE FIRE WITH JACK........Daniels

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 06, 2017 6:19 pm

@algae888 wrote:12z para gfs...
Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th - Page 6 Gfsp_asnow_neus_15
Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th - Page 6 Gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_12
hell yeah! And this could b stronger as frank said if goes sub 990 will b godzilla. Very close at this pt.
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Post by track17 Mon Feb 06, 2017 6:21 pm

Well after seeing those runs I wish everyone in the north luck. Obviously jersey shore is not getting hit on this. Good luck to the northern people

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 06, 2017 7:04 pm

If this storm ends up being at least a 6 to 12 it will b my first wsw of the year. Kinda sad as usually by now would had at least one. But hey let's pray this one pans out. Not much time to go.
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Post by Grselig Mon Feb 06, 2017 7:06 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:If this storm ends up being at least a 6 to 12 it will b my first wsw of the year. Kinda sad as usually by now would had at least one. But hey let's pray this one pans out. Not much time to go.

without a WSW its just not winter. We need one!!!!
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Post by rb924119 Mon Feb 06, 2017 7:08 pm

Video coming out in a little bit!

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Post by amugs Mon Feb 06, 2017 7:11 pm

@Grselig wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:If this storm ends up being at least a 6 to 12 it will b my first wsw of the year. Kinda sad as usually by now would had at least one. But hey let's pray this one pans out. Not much time to go.

without a WSW its just not winter.  We need one!!!!

SO true but Upton won't pull the trigger until teh dawn before terh storm - just look at Tuesday's storm for our areas with teh WWA!

GEFS Jesus H C some are HECS!!!! SOME ARE 0" - MADONNE - a lot of spread!!


Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th - Page 6 Snowfall_total_accum_10to1_members_PANJDE_hr084.thumb.png.ff68ae908bfb4f3af6d5b329f7ef5115



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Post by amugs Mon Feb 06, 2017 7:11 pm

GEFS Liquid - MADONNE _ BRING IT BABY!!

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th - Page 6 IMG_7816.thumb.PNG.dcb9e1ded78d56567d478c1e0f7cf480

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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Feb 06, 2017 7:12 pm

What are the chances of cnj coast seeing snow out of this
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 06, 2017 7:13 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Video coming out in a little bit!
better b positive ur last post was all concerns why it won't happen lol
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Post by rb924119 Mon Feb 06, 2017 7:15 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:Video coming out in a little bit!
better b positive ur last post was all concerns why it won't happen lol

Not that it WON'T happen, just things that we should be keeping watch for, that's all. If you remember, I also said that it was looking good at that time, and I was impressed with the way the jet was trending lol

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Post by sroc4 Mon Feb 06, 2017 7:16 pm

Upton:

Big changes in our local weather, with near record high
temperatures Wednesday, followed quickly by a return to cold
temperatures with snow likely late Wednesday night into
Thursday.

A cold front passes early Wednesday, with colder air taking some
time to move in. As such, with a warm start to the day, expect
daytime high`s to approach records, well into the 50s to around 60
in spots. Any showers taper off as skies clear somewhat as the day
progresses.

Then, attention turns toward upstream trough, and eventual sfc low
that is forecast to develop to our southwest, and pass off the Mid
Atlantic coast, tracking toward or just south of the 40N/70W
benchmark.

For the Wed night-Thursday forecast will discount the fast GFS
solution, which is quick with the low development, and progression
east when compared to most other operational and ensemble forecasts.


It looks like rain moves in ahead of the approaching trough, and low
Wednesday night, with the best chance for measurable precip after
midnight. Any precip will initially be in the form of rain, then we
will see a transition from NW to SE to snow as colder air finally
ushers in north of the developing low.

Amount of QPF remains in question after midnight through Thursday
noontime. Large spread in amounts, which makes for a challenging
snow forecast. much uncertainty, but an overall 4 to 8 inches
possible, less NW of NYC, and highest across Long Island, SE CT per
low track, and likely placement of banded precip. Once again, amounts
could be on either side of this average amount, but feel the morning
commute will be impacted regardless.

Trough axis moves through Wed night as sfc low deepens as it
departs to the northeast. High pressure builds, then upstream
energy approaches as a warm front approaches late in the week. This
weekend could be unsettled, with possible light snow Friday night as
cold air remains in place. Temps warm as the weekend progresses, so
any precip would transition to rain.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by RJB8525 Mon Feb 06, 2017 7:34 pm

Lee picked up on it at 6 and said he'd have more on it at 11 but mentioned there will be snow too
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Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Feb 06, 2017 7:39 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@algae888 wrote:12z para gfs...
Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th - Page 6 Gfsp_asnow_neus_15
Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th - Page 6 Gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_12
hell yeah! And this could b stronger as frank said if goes sub 990 will b godzilla. Very close at this pt.

long island and coast are all white does that mean nothing for all of us?
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Post by Guest Mon Feb 06, 2017 7:42 pm

No Weatherwatchmom Just a model blip. We are in the pink 6-9"

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Post by Dunnzoo Mon Feb 06, 2017 7:45 pm


Joanne, here is the 18z NAM, gives you some....

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th - Page 6 Namconus_asnow_neus_25 [/quote]

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Feb 06, 2017 7:50 pm

@weatherwatchermom wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@algae888 wrote:12z para gfs...
Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th - Page 6 Gfsp_asnow_neus_15
Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th - Page 6 Gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_12
hell yeah! And this could b stronger as frank said if goes sub 990 will b godzilla. Very close at this pt.

long island and coast are all white does that mean nothing for all of us?

Joanne I really not sure what to expect for our area but we have time. I also PM back sorry it took so long lol
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Post by amugs Mon Feb 06, 2017 8:00 pm

Peeps,

There is a good chance for snow for teh entire metro area down to the coast.
Upton looks to be riding EURO/UKIE/NAM blend.
Snow maps are fun to look at at this stage for sure.
There are a good number of variables at play but one things is intriguing is teh jet structure - if it come into play as it did for our Dec 17th, Jan 7th storms then we all could be dancing with a good storm.
Tomorrows 12 Z runs IMHO will be teh tell tale signs of this storms once we get the N energy and Pac energies onshore and better sampled.
Euro 12Z will be interesting since they are discounting the GFS at this time.
NAM suite - Reg NAM, 12K NAM, PARA and HI RES are ones to see indications of what we are seeing holds and what the dynamics will be to an extent,
Surely exciting after the sludge and drudgery of the last 4-5 days here.

From JB

Until we get this out into the plains, its not worth going wild over run to run. I just thought it was interesting that I walk into the house and I hear.. Hey dad did you see the 18z JMA and German models.



That got my achtung real quick

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Mon Feb 06, 2017 8:14 pm

SREFS BEAUTIFULLLLLLLLLLLL!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th - Page 6 IMG_7829.thumb.GIF.f8441ece8417e70aa66e4c13edda6f67

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Mon Feb 06, 2017 8:15 pm

Zoo - look ta the snow hole over our houses cant make this shit up - friggin unbelievable!!

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Mon Feb 06, 2017 8:16 pm

HOLY CRAP SREFS MEAN - NAM IS LEADING THE WAY HERE _ FUN RUNS AHEAD PEEPS!!

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th - Page 6 IMG_7832.thumb.GIF.62ca810ca661e60f720a3d1ebcbc1de3


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Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by Dunnzoo Mon Feb 06, 2017 8:19 pm

@amugs wrote:Zoo - look ta the snow hole over our houses cant make this shit up - friggin unbelievable!!

That's why I don't look at the sref maps much, NAM map much better! cheers

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 06, 2017 8:20 pm

@amugs wrote:SREFS BEAUTIFULLLLLLLLLLLL!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th - Page 6 IMG_7829.thumb.GIF.f8441ece8417e70aa66e4c13edda6f67
that's a whole shade jump for the area from last sref posted. Can't wait see nam may hsve Godzilla written on it.
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