Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th

Wow 18z nam is a Godzilla for some. Franks Sci has to go way up tomorrow I wpuld imagine. It doesn't look like we will get nothing. Nutley yeah I know just don't want jin it but bring it on heck let's get 6 inch per hr rates lol. Is that even posdible good god.

Nuts here is ur block thanks to the Para Nam which has been good, great with the convenience tI've storms.

Frank I'm no rookie when you see the same post twice from me it's a phone problem.

Upton Disco says most likely 4-8" LI. Higher totals n shore lower s shore

12z para gfs...

I think Frank was referencing my personal favorite storm of all time. It was rain and turned to snow about 9 pm. Snowed till 3 am. Picked up 19" in 6 hours. YES I KNOW WHAT I JUST TYPED. it switched over in Philadelphia first and they got slammed. I remember the weather channel reporting 2-4" per hour rates and I was like yeah right!!!!

We need Math to give us the correct date. HANDS DIWN MY FAVORITE EVENT EVER. WATCHED EVERY FLAKE IN FRONT OF THE FIRE WITH JACK........Daniels

algae888 wrote:12z para gfs...

hell yeah! And this could b stronger as frank said if goes sub 990 will b godzilla. Very close at this pt.

Well after seeing those runs I wish everyone in the north luck. Obviously jersey shore is not getting hit on this. Good luck to the northern people

If this storm ends up being at least a 6 to 12 it will b my first wsw of the year. Kinda sad as usually by now would had at least one. But hey let's pray this one pans out. Not much time to go.

jmanley32 wrote:If this storm ends up being at least a 6 to 12 it will b my first wsw of the year. Kinda sad as usually by now would had at least one. But hey let's pray this one pans out. Not much time to go.

without a WSW its just not winter. We need one!!!!

Grselig wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:If this storm ends up being at least a 6 to 12 it will b my first wsw of the year. Kinda sad as usually by now would had at least one. But hey let's pray this one pans out. Not much time to go.

without a WSW its just not winter.  We need one!!!!

SO true but Upton won't pull the trigger until teh dawn before terh storm - just look at Tuesday's storm for our areas with teh WWA!

GEFS Jesus H C some are HECS!!!! SOME ARE 0" - MADONNE - a lot of spread!!

GEFS Liquid - MADONNE _ BRING IT BABY!!

What are the chances of cnj coast seeing snow out of this

rb924119 wrote:Video coming out in a little bit!

better b positive ur last post was all concerns why it won't happen lol

Upton:

Big changes in our local weather, with near record high
temperatures Wednesday, followed quickly by a return to cold
temperatures with snow likely late Wednesday night into
Thursday.

A cold front passes early Wednesday, with colder air taking some
time to move in. As such, with a warm start to the day, expect
daytime high`s to approach records, well into the 50s to around 60
in spots. Any showers taper off as skies clear somewhat as the day
progresses.

Then, attention turns toward upstream trough, and eventual sfc low
that is forecast to develop to our southwest, and pass off the Mid
Atlantic coast, tracking toward or just south of the 40N/70W
benchmark.

For the Wed night-Thursday forecast will discount the fast GFS
solution, which is quick with the low development, and progression
east when compared to most other operational and ensemble forecasts.


It looks like rain moves in ahead of the approaching trough, and low
Wednesday night, with the best chance for measurable precip after
midnight. Any precip will initially be in the form of rain, then we
will see a transition from NW to SE to snow as colder air finally
ushers in north of the developing low.

Amount of QPF remains in question after midnight through Thursday
noontime. Large spread in amounts, which makes for a challenging
snow forecast. much uncertainty, but an overall 4 to 8 inches
possible, less NW of NYC, and highest across Long Island, SE CT per
low track, and likely placement of banded precip. Once again, amounts
could be on either side of this average amount, but feel the morning
commute will be impacted regardless.

Trough axis moves through Wed night as sfc low deepens as it
departs to the northeast. High pressure builds, then upstream
energy approaches as a warm front approaches late in the week. This
weekend could be unsettled, with possible light snow Friday night as
cold air remains in place. Temps warm as the weekend progresses, so
any precip would transition to rain.

Lee picked up on it at 6 and said he'd have more on it at 11 but mentioned there will be snow too

jmanley32 wrote:

algae888 wrote:12z para gfs...

hell yeah! And this could b stronger as frank said if goes sub 990 will b godzilla. Very close at this pt.

long island and coast are all white does that mean nothing for all of us?

No Weatherwatchmom Just a model blip. We are in the pink 6-9"

Joanne, here is the 18z NAM, gives you some....

[/quote]

weatherwatchermom wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

algae888 wrote:12z para gfs...

hell yeah! And this could b stronger as frank said if goes sub 990 will b godzilla. Very close at this pt.

long island and coast are all white does that mean nothing for all of us?

Joanne I really not sure what to expect for our area but we have time. I also PM back sorry it took so long lol

Peeps,

There is a good chance for snow for teh entire metro area down to the coast.
Upton looks to be riding EURO/UKIE/NAM blend.
Snow maps are fun to look at at this stage for sure.
There are a good number of variables at play but one things is intriguing is teh jet structure - if it come into play as it did for our Dec 17th, Jan 7th storms then we all could be dancing with a good storm.
Tomorrows 12 Z runs IMHO will be teh tell tale signs of this storms once we get the N energy and Pac energies onshore and better sampled.
Euro 12Z will be interesting since they are discounting the GFS at this time.
NAM suite - Reg NAM, 12K NAM, PARA and HI RES are ones to see indications of what we are seeing holds and what the dynamics will be to an extent,
Surely exciting after the sludge and drudgery of the last 4-5 days here.

From JB

Until we get this out into the plains, its not worth going wild over run to run. I just thought it was interesting that I walk into the house and I hear.. Hey dad did you see the 18z JMA and German models.



That got my achtung real quick

Zoo - look ta the snow hole over our houses cant make this shit up - friggin unbelievable!!

HOLY CRAP SREFS MEAN - NAM IS LEADING THE WAY HERE _ FUN RUNS AHEAD PEEPS!!

amugs wrote:Zoo - look ta the snow hole over our houses cant make this shit up - friggin unbelievable!!

That's why I don't look at the sref maps much, NAM map much better!

amugs wrote:SREFS BEAUTIFULLLLLLLLLLLL!!!!!!!!!!!!!

that's a whole shade jump for the area from last sref posted. Can't wait see nam may hsve Godzilla written on it.