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Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th

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Post by Snow88 Sun Feb 05, 2017 11:20 pm

GFS has 6+ for many on the coast and inland areas. CMC has nothing. LOL.
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Post by jrollins628 Sun Feb 05, 2017 11:23 pm

Lol then yea

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Post by hyde345 Sun Feb 05, 2017 11:33 pm

GFS is by far the most aggressive with this system. Other models show practically nothing. Only 84 hour out too.
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Post by Snow88 Sun Feb 05, 2017 11:39 pm

CMC shouldn't be taken seriously
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 05, 2017 11:54 pm

Wow, GFS flirts with near godzilla totals in some spots, solid 6-12 for most, mugs hummina is right lol. Can I post the snow map here or is it still banter, it seems this falls in about a 6-12 hr period dayumm.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 06, 2017 12:00 am

CMC should be called: "Call me crazy"

NAM shows rain for 9th, ugg battle to the models as usual.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Mon Feb 06, 2017 12:03 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by Snow88 Mon Feb 06, 2017 12:00 am

0z GEFS is more amped than the 18z GEFS and slightly more west than the op run

http://www.stormvistawxmodels.com/img/gfs-ens/current/00z/GFS-ENS_MSLPThickQPF_na_f84.png
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 06, 2017 12:09 am

Individual GEFS have mostly NW of NYC, not much if anything for coast ugg, One member has a godzilla lol Seems the ones that are more west bring warm air into coastal areas, so we want this NW but not too far.
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Post by algae888 Mon Feb 06, 2017 2:05 am

hearing euro is a descent hit for our area.  snow maps?. navgem too!
Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th - Page 2 Navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_15
Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th - Page 2 Ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_4
Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th - Page 2 Ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_5
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 06, 2017 2:15 am

Hey Al, ur lucky in up, euro is very close to a high end mothreazilla : )

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th - Page 2 Ecmwf_26
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 06, 2017 2:17 am

00z gfs was gr8.

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th - Page 2 Gfs_6h10
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 06, 2017 2:23 am

euro needs b bit further nw to get us good. eastern areas benefit this run.

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th - Page 2 Ecmwf_27
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Post by algae888 Mon Feb 06, 2017 2:23 am

Tks jon and yes all models now have something for Thursday morning except CMC. We still need a perfectly time system with cold air filtering in some of the models are in little North but in a good spot at the moment
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Post by algae888 Mon Feb 06, 2017 4:15 am

6z nam usually to far north at long range. in line with other guidance.
Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th - Page 2 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_50
Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th - Page 2 Namconus_asnow_neus_27
it will correct south imo. we track
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Post by algae888 Mon Feb 06, 2017 4:23 am

WOW! interesting disco from nws...
Weak high pressure moves through the region today. A warm front
approaches tonight, then moves northward through the area on
Tuesday. A cold front moves through Wednesday, with brief high
pressure building in behind. Low pressure tracking northeast
off the coast spreads potentially plowable snow over the region
late Wednesday night into Thursday
...
LR...
Winter makes a potentially dramatic comeback on Thursday following a
very mild Wednesday...
The system of interest is late Wednesday night into Thursday. Have focused on ECMWF and GFS/GEFS for the forecast. The dynamics of interest is energy still out in the Pacific where pattern is rather chaotic with a Rex Block currently over Alaska. This energy undercuts the Block and rapidly tracks east. The other energy is in the north stream shortwave and is coming down the eastern side of the Rex Block from around 80 degrees north. The NWP is rather impressive with the rapid, but progressive cyclogenesis. GEFS members support categorical POPs. (Note, am discounting the NAM and CMC operational runs as do not believe they`re fully capturing the energy.)  The jet structure seen is also impressive (though not exactly textbook). A coupled Jet with 130+ KT maxes is noted over the northeast in the predawn hours. The other issues are boundary layer temps and timing.  Temps appear such that they should support mainly snow or rain changing to snow along the coast. Timing, which is focused on Thursday morning, could be 6 hours faster or slower as seen in the GEFS. As for amounts - there are members of the GEFS with over an inch of liquid. believe that is over a 30% potential for 6" plus. Thus, we`ll start an "outlook" for this system. POPs were raised to likely along the coast, but expect POPs to rise as uncertainty diminishes over the next few days.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Feb 06, 2017 5:06 am

I'll sign right now500mbPossible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th - Page 2 58981410
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Feb 06, 2017 6:10 am

Beg to differ but I could do without the Euro run. GFS a much nicer hit for all parties. To far away to worry about details like this yet. The main thing is all models moved over night except the CMC AND the NAM to a Mothrazilla for all or parts of the area Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Looking forward to seeing Franks SCI This morning.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Feb 06, 2017 6:33 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Beg to differ but I could do without the Euro run. GFS a much nicer hit for all parties. To far away to worry about details like this yet. The main thing is all models moved over night except the CMC AND the NAM to a Mothrazilla for all or parts of the area Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Looking forward to seeing Franks SCI This morning.

CP yes their are many details to be worked out as timing, or of precipitation amount, how the cutter will help out, phasing if any. I was just showing the Euro because I like it reminds me of Juno storm. GFS was not good run for coast
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Post by Guest Mon Feb 06, 2017 8:01 am

When the northern Jersey and N/W crew see the euro run they're gonna shit themselves. OTI SANITARIUM HERE THEY COME

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Feb 06, 2017 8:07 am

syosnow94 wrote:When the northern Jersey and N/W crew see the euro run they're gonna shit themselves. OTI SANITARIUM HERE THEY COME

In the GFS we trust

https://i.servimg.com/u/f37/18/65/60/45/gfs_6h10.jpg
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 06, 2017 8:17 am

Latest SREFS, a reliable model, looks like the GFS. The end result could be a GFS-EURO blend which would be an area wide Mothrazilla for the area. The weaker Wednesdays storm is, the better.

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th - Page 2 SREFNE24Precip09081.gif.e0703952dbabfca1d3c1326c7eb68951

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 06, 2017 8:18 am

Keep in mind the sampling of the PAC energy actually won't be in the models until 12z Wednesday! It's a fast mover.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 06, 2017 8:23 am

As the front moves through on Wednesday, it will be slowed down by an Atlantic ridge pushing west. These post-frontal storms usually work out for the area when there's traffic like that in the Atlantic. It slows the flow down just enough to allow a surface low to develop.

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th - Page 2 Gfs_z500a_nhem_15.png.6050e2a6d04ca36b97de999aedbe0a49

The NAVGEM model was also a nice hit.

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th - Page 2 Nvg10_prp_090.conus.gif.7a6a70b1ffbd1f8413252cb66dbb8c76

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Post by rb924119 Mon Feb 06, 2017 8:39 am

I have two concerns with this system. The first is that the H5 energy ends up too strung out, just like our storm that was supposed to happen today. Very similar situation with respect to where it's coming from and it's path. Secondly, I'm afraid the MJO may be strong enough to overpower the PNA ridge, with offsetting factors elsewhere (-WPO/+EPO, -AO/+NAO), and set the baroclinic zone slightly too far northwest for us, which would keep us wet not white. Right now, though, it's looking good, so we'll see what happens. I will say, however, that the jet looks much improved over previous runs, as it is now progged to be over northern New England, and not us, which should allow the precipitation shield to expand northeastward through our region, especially given the rapid acceleration in the right-rear quadrant into the strong jet.

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Post by amugs Mon Feb 06, 2017 8:42 am

SREFS!!!!!!!!!!!

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th - Page 2 SREFNE24Precip09084.thumb.gif.8e56691cc69a40a0eca5c8f458c1eefe

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