Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th
jmanley32 wrote:Here ya go, NAM para in less than 12 hrs, maybe even less than 10.
Do you know if this is 10:1 ratios. Amounts will be even higher if it is.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th
Loving it, nothing but positive statements all over the snow world!!algae888 wrote:a very good met on another board who doesn't hype says 18" wherever persistent banding sets up...
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th
Looking at that it is interesting that, and this is just my theory, everyone may end up in a similar snowfall amount because areas N and W will go over to snow sooner and get more snow on the front end, but areas to the southeast and east - where rain/mix hangs in longer - will catch up with very heavy snowfall rates from the back-end and ccb as the storm pulls away. If my theory is right, pretty much everyone makes our well here -- and relatively evenly.
Also, as an aside, with a 970 off the coast, yes, Jman, may get his winds.
Also, as an aside, with a 970 off the coast, yes, Jman, may get his winds.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th
I need to be in a watch at least these latest runs of Nam para and 3k Nam crush me
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th
Yes this is 10:1 so add a few inches.CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:jmanley32 wrote:Here ya go, NAM para in less than 12 hrs, maybe even less than 10.
Do you know if this is 10:1 ratios. Amounts will be even higher if it is.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th
rgem for you central jersey and li folks and its still snowing...
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th
Oh of cources that strip headed into CT is bullseye on my hometown lolalgae888 wrote:rgem for you central jersey and li folks and its still snowing...
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th
Al lets get that band to shoft about 50 or so miles west, CT and mass arent in our forum lol, LI could still cash in on it tooalgae888 wrote:rgem for you central jersey and li folks and its still snowing...
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th
yes bill plus the higher ratios inland. if this sucker gets to 970mb then 12" area wide. this storm is starting to remind me of boxing day blizzard. it came out of nowhere.billg315 wrote:Looking at that it is interesting that, and this is just my theory, everyone may end up in a similar snowfall amount because areas N and W will go over to snow sooner and get more snow on the front end, but areas to the southeast and east - where rain/mix hangs in longer - will catch up with very heavy snowfall rates from the back-end and ccb as the storm pulls away. If my theory is right, pretty much everyone makes our well here -- and relatively evenly.
Also, as an aside, with a 970 off the coast, yes, Jman, may get his winds.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th
algae888 wrote:rgem for you central jersey and li folks and its still snowing...
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th
Its for sure possible, believe it or not I havent even been paying wind no mind but I do not think "B" word is out of the question with a 970mb low, winds only need b 35mph gusts.billg315 wrote:Looking at that it is interesting that, and this is just my theory, everyone may end up in a similar snowfall amount because areas N and W will go over to snow sooner and get more snow on the front end, but areas to the southeast and east - where rain/mix hangs in longer - will catch up with very heavy snowfall rates from the back-end and ccb as the storm pulls away. If my theory is right, pretty much everyone makes our well here -- and relatively evenly.
Also, as an aside, with a 970 off the coast, yes, Jman, may get his winds.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th
jman this is a blizzard for eastern lijmanley32 wrote:Its for sure possible, believe it or not I havent even been paying wind no mind but I do not think "B" word is out of the question with a 970mb low, winds only need b 35mph gusts.billg315 wrote:Looking at that it is interesting that, and this is just my theory, everyone may end up in a similar snowfall amount because areas N and W will go over to snow sooner and get more snow on the front end, but areas to the southeast and east - where rain/mix hangs in longer - will catch up with very heavy snowfall rates from the back-end and ccb as the storm pulls away. If my theory is right, pretty much everyone makes our well here -- and relatively evenly.
Also, as an aside, with a 970 off the coast, yes, Jman, may get his winds.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th
surface sustained winds with NAM 988mb, a full 18mb higher than rgem. So ya I think wind may def play a role here for LI coastal CT NYC and jersey shore.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th
algae888 wrote:rgem for you central jersey and li folks and its still snowing...
Don't like the looks of that, great for Skins but the move south and east is a little alarming if not drastic. Hope that's not a trend.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th
Lee just put up his first snow map in general 5 to 10 inches for everyone including long island and jersey shore
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th
Damn it is for eastern CT too, lol why couldnt I been there for this, if that tucks in anymore could put us all on the coast under the gun. But snowfall is whats most exciting here, add the wind for me and i'll be further than heaven. Actually Al the 850mb winds which with these dynamics will probably mix down, even over NYC will have over 35mph gusts which is enough to warrent blizzard. The winds look downright serious for LI and cape cod, Alex road trip? lolalgae888 wrote:jman this is a blizzard for eastern lijmanley32 wrote:Its for sure possible, believe it or not I havent even been paying wind no mind but I do not think "B" word is out of the question with a 970mb low, winds only need b 35mph gusts.billg315 wrote:Looking at that it is interesting that, and this is just my theory, everyone may end up in a similar snowfall amount because areas N and W will go over to snow sooner and get more snow on the front end, but areas to the southeast and east - where rain/mix hangs in longer - will catch up with very heavy snowfall rates from the back-end and ccb as the storm pulls away. If my theory is right, pretty much everyone makes our well here -- and relatively evenly.
Also, as an aside, with a 970 off the coast, yes, Jman, may get his winds.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th
heaviest bands seem to be offshore on that, no?
lglickman1- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th
Okay if RGEM is still show this tomorrow im headed east!
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th
Winter storm watch has been issued for NYC nj long island and Connecticut
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th
jmanley32 wrote:surface sustained winds with NAM 988mb, a full 18mb higher than rgem. So ya I think wind may def play a role here for LI coastal CT NYC and jersey shore.
Hoping the RGEM is overdone as far as it's strength and precip shield.
That solution will benefit a few but take the areawide foot from more than it benefits.
First time today I haven't liked what I've seen. One model though and just one run.
Last edited by CPcantmeasuresnow on Tue Feb 07, 2017 4:43 pm; edited 1 time in total
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th
cp I wouldn't be to concerned I think all areas end up with at least 8-12" with a jackpot around 15". we all want to be under the heaviest bands but you know how it goes. will be interesting to see who jackpots
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th
National weather service has 8 to 12 inches of snow for everyone
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th
RGEM could be a blizzard for others than just LI, look at the 900mb winds sustained! With 4 inch per hr rates good god!
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:algae888 wrote:rgem for you central jersey and li folks and its still snowing...
Don't like the looks of that, great for Skins but the move south and east is a little alarming if not drastic. Hope that's not a trend.
Me either, CP, but if it comes to fruition we still get 6 inches.I have been suspicious of all the maps showing the HV getting a foot because this S and E bias has been seen so many times the last few years.When i see the radar on Thursday morning, we will know.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th
Yep heres NWS highest, way up from yesterday.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th
GFS snow map
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