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Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th

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Post by billg315 Tue Feb 07, 2017 4:22 pm

Looking at that it is interesting that, and this is just my theory, everyone may end up in a similar snowfall amount because areas N and W will go over to snow sooner and get more snow on the front end, but areas to the southeast and east - where rain/mix hangs in longer - will catch up with very heavy snowfall rates from the back-end and ccb as the storm pulls away. If my theory is right, pretty much everyone makes our well here -- and relatively evenly.
Also, as an aside, with a 970 off the coast, yes, Jman, may get his winds.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Feb 07, 2017 4:23 pm

I need to be in a watch at least these latest runs of Nam para and 3k Nam crush me
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 07, 2017 4:23 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Here ya go, NAM para in less than 12 hrs, maybe even less than 10.

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th - Page 23 Namp_314

Do you know if this is 10:1 ratios. Amounts will be even higher if it is.
Yes this is 10:1 so add a few inches.
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Post by algae888 Tue Feb 07, 2017 4:23 pm

rgem for you central jersey and li folks and its still snowing...

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th - Page 23 Rgem_asnow_neus_16
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 07, 2017 4:25 pm

@algae888 wrote:rgem for you central jersey and li folks and its still snowing...

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th - Page 23 Rgem_asnow_neus_16
Oh of cources that strip headed into CT is bullseye on my hometown lol
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 07, 2017 4:26 pm

@algae888 wrote:rgem for you central jersey and li folks and its still snowing...

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th - Page 23 Rgem_asnow_neus_16
Al lets get that band to shoft about 50 or so miles west, CT and mass arent in our forum lol, LI could still cash in on it too
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Post by algae888 Tue Feb 07, 2017 4:28 pm

@billg315 wrote:Looking at that it is interesting that, and this is just my theory, everyone may end up in a similar snowfall amount because areas N and W will go over to snow sooner and get more snow on the front end, but areas to the southeast and east - where rain/mix hangs in longer - will catch up with very heavy snowfall rates from the back-end and ccb as the storm pulls away. If my theory is right, pretty much everyone makes our well here -- and relatively evenly.
Also, as an aside, with a 970 off the coast, yes, Jman, may get his winds.
yes bill plus the higher ratios inland. if this sucker gets to 970mb then 12" area wide. this storm is starting to remind me of boxing day blizzard. it came out of nowhere. Very Happy
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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Feb 07, 2017 4:29 pm

@algae888 wrote:rgem for you central jersey and li folks and its still snowing...

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th - Page 23 Rgem_asnow_neus_16

What a Face
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 07, 2017 4:29 pm

@billg315 wrote:Looking at that it is interesting that, and this is just my theory, everyone may end up in a similar snowfall amount because areas N and W will go over to snow sooner and get more snow on the front end, but areas to the southeast and east - where rain/mix hangs in longer - will catch up with very heavy snowfall rates from the back-end and ccb as the storm pulls away. If my theory is right, pretty much everyone makes our well here -- and relatively evenly.
Also, as an aside, with a 970 off the coast, yes, Jman, may get his winds.
Its for sure possible, believe it or not I havent even been paying wind no mind but I do not think "B" word is out of the question with a 970mb low, winds only need b 35mph gusts.
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Post by algae888 Tue Feb 07, 2017 4:32 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@billg315 wrote:Looking at that it is interesting that, and this is just my theory, everyone may end up in a similar snowfall amount because areas N and W will go over to snow sooner and get more snow on the front end, but areas to the southeast and east - where rain/mix hangs in longer - will catch up with very heavy snowfall rates from the back-end and ccb as the storm pulls away. If my theory is right, pretty much everyone makes our well here -- and relatively evenly.
Also, as an aside, with a 970 off the coast, yes, Jman, may get his winds.
Its for sure possible, believe it or not I havent even been paying wind no mind but I do not think "B" word is out of the question with a 970mb low, winds only need b 35mph gusts.
jman this is a blizzard for eastern li
Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th - Page 23 Rgem_mslp_wind_neus_17
Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th - Page 23 Rgem_mslp_uv850_neus_17
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 07, 2017 4:35 pm

surface sustained winds with NAM 988mb, a full 18mb higher than rgem. So ya I think wind may def play a role here for LI coastal CT NYC and jersey shore.

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th - Page 23 Nam_ms15
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Feb 07, 2017 4:35 pm

@algae888 wrote:rgem for you central jersey and li folks and its still snowing...

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th - Page 23 Rgem_asnow_neus_16

Don't like the looks of that, great for Skins but the move south and east is a little alarming if not drastic. Hope that's not a trend.
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Post by frank 638 Tue Feb 07, 2017 4:35 pm

Lee just put up his first snow map in general 5 to 10 inches for everyone including long island and jersey shore

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 07, 2017 4:36 pm

@algae888 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@billg315 wrote:Looking at that it is interesting that, and this is just my theory, everyone may end up in a similar snowfall amount because areas N and W will go over to snow sooner and get more snow on the front end, but areas to the southeast and east - where rain/mix hangs in longer - will catch up with very heavy snowfall rates from the back-end and ccb as the storm pulls away. If my theory is right, pretty much everyone makes our well here -- and relatively evenly.
Also, as an aside, with a 970 off the coast, yes, Jman, may get his winds.
Its for sure possible, believe it or not I havent even been paying wind no mind but I do not think "B" word is out of the question with a 970mb low, winds only need b 35mph gusts.
jman this is a blizzard for eastern li
Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th - Page 23 Rgem_mslp_wind_neus_17
Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th - Page 23 Rgem_mslp_uv850_neus_17
Damn it is for eastern CT too, lol why couldnt I been there for this, if that tucks in anymore could put us all on the coast under the gun. But snowfall is whats most exciting here, add the wind for me and i'll be further than heaven. Actually Al the 850mb winds which with these dynamics will probably mix down, even over NYC will have over 35mph gusts which is enough to warrent blizzard. The winds look downright serious for LI and cape cod, Alex road trip? lol
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Post by algae888 Tue Feb 07, 2017 4:40 pm

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th - Page 23 Rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_16
WOW!!!!!
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Post by lglickman1 Tue Feb 07, 2017 4:40 pm

heaviest bands seem to be offshore on that, no?

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 07, 2017 4:41 pm

Okay if RGEM is still show this tomorrow im headed east!
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Post by frank 638 Tue Feb 07, 2017 4:41 pm

Winter storm watch has been issued for NYC nj long island and Connecticut

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Feb 07, 2017 4:42 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:surface sustained winds with NAM 988mb, a full 18mb higher than rgem.  So ya I think wind may def play a role here for LI coastal CT NYC and jersey shore.

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th - Page 23 Nam_ms15

Hoping the RGEM is overdone as far as it's strength and precip shield.

That solution will benefit a few but take the areawide foot from more than it benefits.

First time today I haven't liked what I've seen. One model though and just one run.


Last edited by CPcantmeasuresnow on Tue Feb 07, 2017 4:43 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by algae888 Tue Feb 07, 2017 4:42 pm

cp I wouldn't be to concerned I think all areas end up with at least 8-12" with a jackpot around 15". we all want to be under the heaviest bands but you know how it goes. will be interesting to see who jackpots
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Post by frank 638 Tue Feb 07, 2017 4:44 pm

National weather service has 8 to 12 inches of snow for everyone

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 07, 2017 4:45 pm

RGEM could be a blizzard for others than just LI, look at the 900mb winds sustained! With 4 inch per hr rates good god!

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th - Page 23 Rgem_u12

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Post by docstox12 Tue Feb 07, 2017 4:46 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@algae888 wrote:rgem for you central jersey and li folks and its still snowing...

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th - Page 23 Rgem_asnow_neus_16

Don't like the looks of that, great for Skins but the move south and east is a little alarming if not drastic. Hope that's not a trend.

Me either, CP, but if it comes to fruition we still get 6 inches.I have been suspicious of all the maps showing the HV getting a foot because this S and E bias has been seen so many times the last few years.When i see the radar on Thursday morning, we will know.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 07, 2017 4:47 pm

Yep heres NWS highest, way up from yesterday.

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th - Page 23 Snowam10
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Feb 07, 2017 4:48 pm

GFS snow map

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th - Page 23 FB_IMG_1486504011587.jpg.7d51e2db897371e65b1decb5f09fa5c7

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