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Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th

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Post by amugs Mon Feb 06, 2017 1:27 pm

A blend of the Euro and Gfs would be an area wide 3-6" event - that woudl be great at this point.
Watch the NAM school them (well Euro this time)!
JB saying 6-12 NYC to Bastaan!!

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Post by jake732 Mon Feb 06, 2017 2:21 pm

unfortunately looks like north of nyc is the best bet
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Post by Guest Mon Feb 06, 2017 2:34 pm

Frank it seems like I am at only 2" instead of 19.5" because it all has melted within a day!

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Post by Guest Mon Feb 06, 2017 2:36 pm

Amugs. JB saying snow is not news cmon!!!


Just messing with you a little


Last edited by syosnow94 on Mon Feb 06, 2017 4:07 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by amugs Mon Feb 06, 2017 2:45 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Amugs. JB saying snow is not news cmon!!!  


Just messing with you a little

I know I know but he is on board. We shall see.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Feb 06, 2017 3:15 pm

Everything seems to be east and strung out on latest model runs.
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Post by dsix85 Mon Feb 06, 2017 3:20 pm

Rayno video-https://twitter.com/AccuRayno/status/828664160040808448/photo/1

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Feb 06, 2017 3:51 pm

FWIW the 18z NAM crushes the LHV with heavy snow, with rain to heavy snow NYC and east. Wouldn't bet my life on it but it's just another solution out there right now. I can't access accumulations map at work but looks like almost a foot in parts of orange, Putnam and Rockland counties.


Last edited by CPcantmeasuresnow on Mon Feb 06, 2017 3:51 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 06, 2017 3:51 pm

So I am confused, how does a LP offshore go from there to the northeast and no effect us? Oh well, hopefully he is wrong but to call for such a different area from what models show I do not get. Rayno says no to baltimore DC and NYC.

NVM end of video shows he does include NYC, but NYC isnt really new england is it?


Last edited by jmanley32 on Mon Feb 06, 2017 4:01 pm; edited 2 times in total
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Post by hyde345 Mon Feb 06, 2017 3:53 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:Everything seems to be east and strung out on latest model runs.

Not really. GFS and Nam have a nice little developing system. The 18z nam drops a lot of snow in a relatively short amount of time.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 06, 2017 3:57 pm

18z NAM!! What do we need to get that start off of rain to not happen so coast cashes in on that 6-12+?

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th - Page 4 Nam_3h12
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 06, 2017 3:59 pm

Jeeza loo, if this is true we get 1-3 inche snow rates for 6 hrs, it starts come in at hr 63 and is out by hr 69 holy crap!
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Post by track17 Mon Feb 06, 2017 4:02 pm

jman does the coast have any shot with this

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Post by essexcountypete Mon Feb 06, 2017 4:03 pm

@dsix85 wrote:Rayno video-https://twitter.com/AccuRayno/status/828664160040808448/photo/1

Sounds like Rayno likes the GFS solution, and from the looks of his graphic the cut off is around Phila to about Sandy Hook but includes NYC. He said not a storm for DC/Balt/Phila, good for NE, okay for NYC. He likes N&W. If it comes in weaker than current GFS then it may be bit more south with snow.

Too soon to bet the farm on the exact track.


Last edited by essexcountypete on Mon Feb 06, 2017 4:04 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 06, 2017 4:03 pm

Model mayhem, but the EPS came in wetter than the OP so red flag OP is wrong

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 06, 2017 4:05 pm

Guys if we can get this all cold air and the NAM is right with qpf we could have a godzilla, is that even possible with this?
precip prior to storm (rain).

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th - Page 4 Nam_to11

qpf after storm:

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th - Page 4 Nam_to10
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 06, 2017 4:06 pm

Worst case scenario map from NWS

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th - Page 4 SnowAmt90Prcntl

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 06, 2017 4:07 pm

Check out that 996mb low on the NAM. Thing of beaut.

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th - Page 4 5898e588873f1

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 06, 2017 4:08 pm

Jeeze theres snow 970s in there!

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th - Page 4 Eps_sl10
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Post by Guest Mon Feb 06, 2017 4:09 pm

System looks to be quite dynamic. That NAM map doesn't make sense for LI. Most maps don't. Not worried here. Uptown seems bullish. Unusual for them

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 06, 2017 4:09 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Worst case scenario map from NWS

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th - Page 4 SnowAmt90Prcntl
I am always trying to find this where is the link?
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 06, 2017 4:11 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Check out that 996mb low on the NAM. Thing of beaut.

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th - Page 4 5898e588873f1
I know and how fast it moves and the amount of precip it puts down is incredible. I see possible thindersnow maybe?
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Post by SoulSingMG Mon Feb 06, 2017 4:12 pm

UPTON's first stab at it...

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th - Page 4 Img_2710
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 06, 2017 4:13 pm

@amugs wrote:A blend of the Euro and Gfs would be an area wide 3-6" event - that woudl be great at this point.
Watch the NAM school them (well Euro this time)!
JB saying 6-12 NYC to Bastaan!!

Agree, but I think Mothrazilla would be even better Very Happy

@jake732 wrote:unfortunately looks like north of nyc is the best bet

Yes, but in the past I felt these type of post frontal storm like to stay south. So I wouldn't rule out north half of NJ shore.

syosnow94 wrote:Frank it seems like I am at only 2" instead of 19.5" because it all has melted within a day!

I responded to this on the last page. I'll say it again, you're looking for special winter's all the time. You can't have it both cold and snowy all the time. Those are saved for historic patterns. If everything was historic, the word wouldn't even exist. Knowhatimean?

@skinsfan1177 wrote:Everything seems to be east and strung out on latest model runs.

Wrong.

@dsix85 wrote:Rayno video-https://twitter.com/AccuRayno/status/828664160040808448/photo/1

Thank you.

@jmanley32 wrote:So I am confused, how does a LP offshore go from there to the northeast and no effect us? Oh well, hopefully he is wrong but to call for such a different area from what models show I do not get. Rayno says no to baltimore DC and NYC.

NVM end of video shows he does include NYC, but NYC isnt really new england is it?

NYC is def not NE. And the LP develops near TN then as heights rise along the EC it rides the baroclinic zone.

@jmanley32 wrote:18z NAM!! What do we need to get that start off of rain to not happen so coast cashes in on that 6-12+?

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th - Page 4 Nam_3h12


If the storm takes a north track, someone in NJ will see rain. Possibly into NYC too. A south track means little to no rain but northern folks get nada.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 06, 2017 4:15 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Jeeze theres snow 970s in there!

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th - Page 4 Eps_sl10

I'm crying.

syosnow94 wrote:System looks to be quite dynamic. That NAM map doesn't make sense for LI. Most maps don't. Not worried here. Uptown seems bullish. Unusual for them

They're bored too.

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Worst case scenario map from NWS

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th - Page 4 SnowAmt90Prcntl
I am always trying to find this where is the link?

Found on twitter, idk.

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Check out that 996mb low on the NAM. Thing of beaut.

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th - Page 4 5898e588873f1
I know and how fast it moves and the amount of precip it puts down is incredible.  I see possible thindersnow maybe?

Yes.

@SoulSingMG wrote:UPTON's first stab at it...

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th - Page 4 Img_2710

Reasonable

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