February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm

MADONNE!!! Mean still leaning NNW

Frank_Wx wrote:Warning, don't watch around children. Or not at all if you don't like language.

I believe you violated one of your own rules, time out for you... : )

Frank_Wx wrote:MADONNE!!! Mean still leaning NNW

Sorry if this is a dumb question, but do we know how much of the shift in snow totals is the location of the storm/banding vs how much of it is in relation to the changeover time from rain to snow. In other words, it would make sense for N and W to get more snow, all things being equal, if they start as all snow much sooner than the coastal areas. But the coastal areas S and E could make up for that on the back end with heavier banding or setting up under the deformation zone as the storm pulls away. So when we see a shift N and W is that the deformation zone and/or banding going that way, or is that a sign that the initial rain and mix at the shore will keep totals lower there and they won't make up for that slow start on the back end? Or a little of both?

Joe Snow wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:MADONNE!!! Mean still leaning NNW

nice!! Hey joesnow long time no see.

Frank_Wx wrote:MADONNE!!! Mean still leaning NNW

I'm a bit surprised the SREFS are still leaning north and west after watching the 18z runs trending east. We don't want this beast too close to the coast then we will have to worry about dry slotting in parts of the area.

will all the snow be sticking on grassy surfaces or also roads?

jmanley32 wrote:

Joe Snow wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:MADONNE!!! Mean still leaning NNW

nice!! Hey joesnow long time no see.

Jman I have been here lurking.

I have also been busy with Real Estate I have a NY Brokers license now getting a NJ License, been going crazy of late.

But I am here drinking a beer watch this storm unfold. White Gold for all................

jake732 wrote:will all the snow be sticking on grassy surfaces or also roads?

That and more.............

Well I guess the SREF maps above indicate its the precipitation overall that is shifting not just the snow amounts as we've seen moving around with some of the snow accumulation models today, so I guess that sort of answers my question. I still wonder if this isn't a situation where the shore and Long Island actually make out better because they hold onto the heavier stuff longer at the end, even though the snow changover starts sooner N and W.

jmanley32 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Warning, don't watch around children. Or not at all if you don't like language.

I believe you violated one of your own rules, time out for you... : )

Whataya gunna do bout' it?

Nams intialized big 00z runs

billg315 wrote:Sorry if this is a dumb question, but do we know how much of the shift in snow totals is the location of the storm/banding vs how much of it is in relation to the changeover time from rain to snow. In other words, it would make sense for N and W to get more snow, all things being equal, if they start as all snow much sooner than the coastal areas. But the coastal areas S and E could make up for that on the back end with heavier banding or setting up under the deformation zone as the storm pulls away. So when we see a shift N and W is that the deformation zone and/or banding going that way, or is that a sign that the initial rain and mix at the shore will keep totals lower there and they won't make up for that slow start on the back end? Or a little of both?

In my writeup I stated N&W and S&E would see similar snow amounts because one will have ratios while the other has banding. Now, if N&W also happens to see banding then they'll jackpot.

billg315 wrote:Well I guess the SREF maps above indicate its the precipitation overall that is shifting not just the snow amounts as we've seen moving around with some of the snow accumulation models today, so I guess that sort of answers my question. I still wonder if this isn't a situation where the shore and Long Island actually make out better because they hold onto the heavier stuff longer at the end, even though the snow changover starts sooner N and W.

I dont think anyone north of rt 80 sees any rain. Even north shore of island esp since models have been pushing back start time. Jesrsey shore eastern li should start as rain.

I would agree with that. That's why I think the areas north and west get a jump on the accumulation because they will be almost all snow, whereas the Jersey Shore may take awhile to get to all snow. But it could even out at the end if that heavier banding sets up S and E especially as the storm starts to pull away, which as Frank says is the big question (where the banding is).

only gonna snow for like 9 hrs! what the heck

Frank_Wx wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Warning, don't watch around children. Or not at all if you don't like language.

I believe you violated one of your own rules, time out for you... : )

Whataya gunna do bout' it?

Just sayin not fair, Ive posted less offensive and been pulled...but being the boss I guess has its perks.

jake732 wrote:only gonna snow for like 9 hrs! what the heck

With 2-4 inches per hour my man!!

jake732 wrote:only gonna snow for like 9 hrs! what the heck

Yea but you will see one off the most intense snow rates possible for this area. I love these type of storms not the drawn out 24+ hours ones with hours of light snow. Cant wait for snow to start.

algae888 wrote:

jake732 wrote:only gonna snow for like 9 hrs! what the heck

Yea but you will see one off the most intense snow rates possible for this area. I love these type of storms not the drawn out 24+ hours ones with hours of light snow. Cant wait for snow to start.

Should be exciting Al, I dunno if I have seen something like this b4, I probably have but do not remember.

Para Nam looks good so far. It's the king this winter

Here is my first call for this event:

Start: 3-6am
End: 2-5pm



As you can see, I am remaining cautious before jumping on the high totals that we are seeing being advertised currently, except for southern and central New England. The reason for this is because I am uncertain of how much available anomalous moisture there will be for the regions further west, back through southern New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania. Instead of having a classic moisture source from the Gulf or the Atlantic, we are relying on the dynamics to be able to squeeze out what moisture there is. According to the GFS, PWAT anomalies of around 1-1.5 sigma will be working through the southern tier of Pennsylvania and central New Jersey, but they tail off very quickly to the north, and don't really begin to blossom until the system begins really impacting southern and central New England, and the fetch becomes elongated off the Atlantic toward the New England coast. During this same time, the dynamics of this system will be stronger and more established than they are for regions further west, which is why I have increased totals there. I am also uncertain of the actual jet structure, although there is seemingly a growing level of consistency in developing a coupled jet system as the low is traversing the Mid-Atlantic. With that as is, combined with the uncertainty of when the trough begins tilting negative and adjusting the steering flow so that mid-level forcings are directed more south to north versus southwest to northeast, which also determines how strong the lower-level frontogenesis will be and where, I am not ready to make a determination on just how soon this occurs and how far west the precipitation shield can be expanded as a result. This also played a role in my lower amounts. However, I may have to increase these if what I think CAN happen with this event starts being shown. As for the placement of the heaviest snow axis, I am continuing to believe that this still trends a bit further northwest, given the factors outlined yesterday in my video, as well as one additional one that I forgot to mention; the anomalously warm coastal Atlantic waters. In any case, if adjustments need to be made, I feel that they will only include upward adjustments of the numbers, and not the locations of the gradients, as I feel pretty confident about the gradients, but we shall see. During the height of this event, snowfall rates of 1-3"/hour will be likely, but given the fast and progressive nature of this system, it will not be a long-duration event, which is another limiting factor in my lower numbers. If the forcing appears to align sooner and extend the window of heaviest precipitation, I will increase my totals. Again, however, I am not confident enough to pull the trigger at this time given the above. Lastly, the reason that I am low through southern Pennsylvania and New Jersey is because I believe the lower-level circulation will be passing pretty much over these regions before scooting offshore. This will act to direct the best forcing between about 50-100 miles to the northwest of the closed circulation (mainly H850), and potentially dry slot these regions, forcing them to rely on the CCB banding that follows (which will be very impressive, even if only for a short time). Admittedly, I wanted to extend the lower totals further northeast through the eastern 2/3 of Long Island and into extreme southeastern New England, but given the dynamic and moisture factors discussed above, I also feel that they could make up for the decreased snow activity to start.

jmanley32 wrote:

algae888 wrote:

jake732 wrote:only gonna snow for like 9 hrs! what the heck

Yea but you will see one off the most intense snow rates possible for this area. I love these type of storms not the drawn out 24+ hours ones with hours of light snow. Cant wait for snow to start.

Should be exciting Al, I dunno if I have seen something like this b4, I probably have but do not remember.

Yes you have the storm syo was talking about today. Dec 2002 xmas i believe. Rained all day turned to snow at 4pm and by 10 pm had a foot in mt vernon. Def one of my fav storms

In my experience, and this is anecdotal, a lot of big storms don't last much longer than 10-12 hours anyway (although they often are forecast to last longer - they often seem to end earlier than projected). I think the intensity of the storm is more often the bigger factor in accumulation than duration. Of course if you have duration AND intensity then you have something pretty remarkable. But a lot of big storms have been made by just a few hours of really heavy snow.

Thank you Frank for the analysis and discussion, it was helpful.

The PARA NAM is about to show a Godzilla. Will share images in chat

wheres sroc?