February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm
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Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm
i'm down for a chat even if it's just laughs and general shooting the breeze
RJB8525- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm
Actually, no chat. Forum. I wanna make sure everyone sees the new info that comes in.
Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm
I'll be there.Frank_Wx wrote:1-hour chat tonight 9pm-10pm? Why the hell not.
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm
Hey Guys,
I am on my lunch break (a VERY LATE lunch break because of how busy I have been at work). I have looked at the model updates and they look impressive.
One thing to keep in mind: As is 2:51 PM it is 60 degrees at CPK. Did the models have it getting that warm at this time. To me, the timing of the system is reliant upon getting the temperatures to crash in time. If not, it could be in the upper 30s tomorrow morning when the precipitation is coming in. Anybody remember the March 2013 "Snowquester" snowstorm in Washington DC (3/6/13) it was an all rain storm at 36 degrees and it was forecasted to be near 30 with 3-6" of snow (which is a big deal for DC). And it was a huge bust as a result. I will be monitoring how fast the temperatures drop over the next few hours.
This is actually similar to the 2/5/16 event last year where it was in the upper 50s the day before the morning snow. The did not come down heavy enough in Manhattan to amount to big snow totals. In eastern Queens and Long Island, however, there very heavy snowfall rates, which resulted in 6-12" of snow in that region.
Using my Excel chart, with 11.1" so far, CPK is "much below normal." Three inches of snow would put it in "below normal" criteria and nine inches would put it in "near normal" criteria, which would be amazing given how awful the pattern has been for seeing snow. Anyway, I'll be heading back to my busy work schedule soon.
I am on my lunch break (a VERY LATE lunch break because of how busy I have been at work). I have looked at the model updates and they look impressive.
One thing to keep in mind: As is 2:51 PM it is 60 degrees at CPK. Did the models have it getting that warm at this time. To me, the timing of the system is reliant upon getting the temperatures to crash in time. If not, it could be in the upper 30s tomorrow morning when the precipitation is coming in. Anybody remember the March 2013 "Snowquester" snowstorm in Washington DC (3/6/13) it was an all rain storm at 36 degrees and it was forecasted to be near 30 with 3-6" of snow (which is a big deal for DC). And it was a huge bust as a result. I will be monitoring how fast the temperatures drop over the next few hours.
This is actually similar to the 2/5/16 event last year where it was in the upper 50s the day before the morning snow. The did not come down heavy enough in Manhattan to amount to big snow totals. In eastern Queens and Long Island, however, there very heavy snowfall rates, which resulted in 6-12" of snow in that region.
Using my Excel chart, with 11.1" so far, CPK is "much below normal." Three inches of snow would put it in "below normal" criteria and nine inches would put it in "near normal" criteria, which would be amazing given how awful the pattern has been for seeing snow. Anyway, I'll be heading back to my busy work schedule soon.
Last edited by Math23x7 on Wed Feb 08, 2017 3:33 pm; edited 1 time in total
Math23x7- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm
Like the looks on the nam for the hudson valley just nervous where that strip of green over nyc and southern westchester really setsup
2004blackwrx- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm
1010 wins is now predicting 8-12 inches.
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm
Frank_Wx wrote:1-hour chat tonight 9pm-10pm? Why the hell not.
Minkia
Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm
IMO yes to the blizzard warnings further west, my WSW is exactly the same as the blizzard warning for LI in terms of wind and thats all that matters for a blizzard warning has nothing to do with snow totals. Also the LP is closer in to the shore, especially nicely tucked, but nonetheless, blizzard warning or not there WILL be blizzard conditions in NYC and southern westchester.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm
waiting to see if Mt Holly makes changes they haven't touched their numbers since the original warning went out now that Upton made updates
RJB8525- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm
I am amazed news 12 actually is saying 8-12, they are always late to the ballgame, still probably a bit low depending on the banding but that snow hole around NYC on NAM is disconcerting, but we still do well. Frank still believes NYC LI areas jackpot, or are at least 12.nutleyblizzard wrote:1010 wins is now predicting 8-12 inches.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm
current NYS temps:
http://www.usairnet.com/weather/maps/current/new-york/temperature/
http://www.usairnet.com/weather/maps/current/new-york/temperature/
Radz- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm
Frank_Wx wrote:Actually, no chat. Forum. I wanna make sure everyone sees the new info that comes in.
Frank, you seem a bit flustered, you changed your mind 3X in a 5 minute span. I think it's wine and Nutella time for you.
GreyBeard- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm
Anyone who wants a weather geek to talk to, feel free to text me.
Five Seven Oh, Six Five Oh, One Oh Three Four
Five Seven Oh, Six Five Oh, One Oh Three Four
mikeypizano- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm
Updated amounts, and winds are high enough for a blizzard warning, but said earlier 40mph, upped snow amounts and look at the bold, they must believe this will be very heavy and wet snow.
CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-176>179-090500-
/O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0002.170209T0500Z-170209T2300Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-
Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-
Southern Nassau-
317 PM EST Wed Feb 8 2017
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY...
* Snow Accumulations...8 to 12 inches...locally higher.
* Locations...New York City, Nassau County, Southern Connecticut,
the Lower Hudson Valley and Northeastern New Jersey.
* Hazard type...Heavy snow.
* Timing...Late tonight through Thursday.
* Impacts...Hazardous/dangerous travel due to snow covered roads
and poor visibilities. Blowing and drifting snow is likely.
Local power outages with downed trees and powerlines possible.
* Winds...North 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.
* Visibilities...one quarter mile or less at times.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm
Frank, is there a chat tonight or not ?
SNOW MAN- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm
SNOW MAN wrote:Frank, is there a chat tonight or not ?
No, I need to get home and make my final call. Then I NEED the gym because I have not gone in over 24 hours.
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Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm
Nada chat, Mr. Indecisive (jk Frank) decided against it as he wants to post the models for savings sake. Smart move IMO. Chat moves to fast for me anyways LOL
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm
4KM NAM with ratios
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Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm
Jman that's close to blizzard criteria. If RB is right about the jet structure improving more, NYC and eastern Jersey will end up in blizzard warnings.
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm
nutleyblizzard wrote:Jman that's close to blizzard criteria. If RB is right about the jet structure improving more, NYC and eastern Jersey will end up in blizzard warnings.
Meaning coastal nj
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm
Surface low developing over TN!!!
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Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm
just looked at the new Mt Holly storm briefing report they put out at 3:30 they went on board with 8-12" also
RJB8525- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm
so to summarize all of today's pages and pages of posts we have added about 2-4" area-wide to Franks map from last night. Right Frank?
Guest- Guest
Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm
Frank_Wx wrote:4KM NAM with ratios
Jman you always comment when anyone you know jackpots on a map and here you are at the 19.8 jackpot and nothing? WTF?
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm
What are the start and end times? If it snows 3 to 4 inches an hour witch I'm hearing all day beginning at 1 AM - 3 AM then by 5 AM to 8 AM the storm is completed, am I right?
shabsies- Posts : 33
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Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm
its also now 53* with a breeze and you can definitely tell the air has a chill in it compared to noon
RJB8525- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: February 9th Godzilla: Fast & Furious Storm
NAM precip
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