Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump
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brownie
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Math23x7
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38 posters
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Re: Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump
aiannone wrote:540 line isn't always the r/s line. There is also an 850mb 0c line. Stormvista shows it nicelyCPcantmeasuresnow wrote:amugs wrote:
Remember sleet and zr are counted on these maps as snow - this is for NNJ and NYC
540 line is way up in Albany in that picture what altitude is the model you posted depicting those upper level temps? Shows heavy snow in the HV but how with the 540 line so far north?
Alex as depicted above what altitude are the lines depicting there? Usually it says whether it's 850 which I believe is 5,000 feet or 700, 925 etc.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump
I don't post on here but I have to say I am very concerned about the ice.
Lnda23- Posts : 29
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Re: Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump
Lnda23 wrote:I don't post on here but I have to say I am very concerned about the ice.
Well you're lying because that's your 12th post.

CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump
Meant to say too much.
Lnda23- Posts : 29
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Re: Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump
That is exactly why I don't post often. Lol

Lnda23- Posts : 29
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Re: Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump
You can already see how areas with the heavier snow cover are staying much cooler than the areas that have lesser snow cover despite Warm Air Advection.

aiannone- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump
Lnda23 wrote:That is exactly why I don't post often. Lol![]()
14 you're on a roll. Don't stop now.

CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump
Lnda23 wrote:I don't post on here but I have to say I am very concerned about the ice.
Hey neighbor!
Up to a quarter of an inch is possible, but I think it will be mostly to our west. Maybe we can get a tenth of an inch.
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Re: Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump
Ice is concerning. Dangerous on many levels and all you can do is melt it or wait for it to melt
Scullybutcher- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump
CP my man I don't go up to steal the Hudson Valleys snow because mom and dads house is not in the Hudson Valley. They are in the Catskills. Ha!!!! About a 12 inch snowpack up here at the house with another foot coming tomorrow. Going to really help out the reservoir for the spring
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Re: Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump
12 inch snow pack here too buddy however you are in a much better spot for tomorrow. I think we will be sitting right on the snow sleet border for much of this. If I get 6 inches out of this it will be all good, anymore will be a gift. Ace said I'd get a foot, from his mouth to Gods ears.
Enjoy and if you somehow make out on both ends with this, in other words when you get to LI tomorrow night if somehow it becomes heavy snow there as the storm strengthens off the coast never speak to me again.
Enjoy and if you somehow make out on both ends with this, in other words when you get to LI tomorrow night if somehow it becomes heavy snow there as the storm strengthens off the coast never speak to me again.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump
Frank_Wx wrote:Lnda23 wrote:I don't post on here but I have to say I am very concerned about the ice.
Hey neighbor!
Up to a quarter of an inch is possible, but I think it will be mostly to our west. Maybe we can get a tenth of an inch.
Fingers crossed! I have to ref a few games in Maplewood between 1 & 4pm.
Lnda23- Posts : 29
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Re: Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump
Warm front has been stuck over extreme SW LI/NYC for hours. Cold air resistance holding it up. Hence temps near 50 in central NJ and SW LI and central and eastern LI on north and east in the mid 30s..... hmmmm
aiannone- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump
aiannone wrote:Warm front has been stuck over extreme SW LI/NYC for hours. Cold air resistance holding it up. Hence temps near 50 in central NJ and SW LI and central and eastern LI on north and east in the mid 30s..... hmmmm
Are you suggesting the snow line should be moved down just a bit for tomorrow
Scullybutcher- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump
Scullybutcher wrote:aiannone wrote:Warm front has been stuck over extreme SW LI/NYC for hours. Cold air resistance holding it up. Hence temps near 50 in central NJ and SW LI and central and eastern LI on north and east in the mid 30s..... hmmmm
Are you suggesting the snow line should be moved down just a bit for tomorrow
Don't bet on it but don't be surprised if areas north of 495 on LI see an inch or two. Snow pack can do wonderful things. Things models cannot detect.
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump
Upton: Minor adjustments made based on latest observations. Noted some
colder air dropping southward across the Connecticut Valley with
reading already into the upper 20s and lower 30s in northern
CT. The HRRR and RAP show some colder air working across CT and
LI overnight, colder than currently forecast. This will have to
be watched.
colder air dropping southward across the Connecticut Valley with
reading already into the upper 20s and lower 30s in northern
CT. The HRRR and RAP show some colder air working across CT and
LI overnight, colder than currently forecast. This will have to
be watched.
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump
sroc4 wrote:Scullybutcher wrote:aiannone wrote:Warm front has been stuck over extreme SW LI/NYC for hours. Cold air resistance holding it up. Hence temps near 50 in central NJ and SW LI and central and eastern LI on north and east in the mid 30s..... hmmmm
Are you suggesting the snow line should be moved down just a bit for tomorrow
Don't bet on it but don't be surprised if areas north of 495 on LI see an inch or two. Snow pack can do wonderful things. Things models cannot detect.
This may unfortunately be the case for me yet again here.....

Math23x7- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump
Math23x7 wrote:sroc4 wrote:Scullybutcher wrote:aiannone wrote:Warm front has been stuck over extreme SW LI/NYC for hours. Cold air resistance holding it up. Hence temps near 50 in central NJ and SW LI and central and eastern LI on north and east in the mid 30s..... hmmmm
Are you suggesting the snow line should be moved down just a bit for tomorrow
Don't bet on it but don't be surprised if areas north of 495 on LI see an inch or two. Snow pack can do wonderful things. Things models cannot detect.
This may unfortunately be the case for me yet again here.....
I guess I am sitting pretty in Stony Brook...........Maybe
Joe Snow- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump
I was thinking the same thing Joe
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Re: Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump
Barring any last second cooling, it looks like I'll spending most of the time watching it rain at 33 or 34 degrees.
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Re: Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump
SNowpack for the third time do wonderful things for our boundary layer and skew teh temps. Again it was to be 50 and rain tomorrow - now it is mid/upper 20's to freezing. HRRR picking up on this with each run.

NAM PARA - has been hot this winter = colder check out the latest SV



NAM PARA - has been hot this winter = colder check out the latest SV

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump

850s

Recipe for Ice
Thresh hold for ice storm warning is .25 for NNJ and up
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump
Judging by the lack of post i can tell there are few of us that are in orange puntam and dutchess county and north
2004blackwrx- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump
JMAN wind event - WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA here

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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump
Red Sox Suck blizzard watch 12-18" expected. F me
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Re: Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump
syosnow94 wrote:Red Sox Suck blizzard watch 12-18" expected. F me
MillerB's they jackpot - we usually get minor effects compared.
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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