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Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Feb 11, 2017 4:57 pm

@Lnda23 wrote:I don't post on here but I have to say I am very concerned about the ice.

Well you're lying because that's your 12th post. Very Happy
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Post by Lnda23 Sat Feb 11, 2017 4:58 pm

Meant to say too much.
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Post by Lnda23 Sat Feb 11, 2017 5:00 pm

That is exactly why I don't post often. Lol Exclamation
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Post by aiannone Sat Feb 11, 2017 5:01 pm

You can already see how areas with the heavier snow cover are staying much cooler than the areas that have lesser snow cover despite Warm Air Advection.Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump - Page 6 Captur13
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Feb 11, 2017 5:02 pm

@Lnda23 wrote:That is exactly why I don't post often. Lol Exclamation

14 you're on a roll. Don't stop now. Smile
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 11, 2017 5:05 pm

@Lnda23 wrote:I don't post on here but I have to say I am very concerned about the ice.

Hey neighbor!

Up to a quarter of an inch is possible, but I think it will be mostly to our west. Maybe we can get a tenth of an inch.

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Post by Scullybutcher Sat Feb 11, 2017 5:14 pm

Ice is concerning. Dangerous on many levels and all you can do is melt it or wait for it to melt
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Post by Guest Sat Feb 11, 2017 5:37 pm

CP my man I don't go up to steal the Hudson Valleys snow because mom and dads house is not in the Hudson Valley. They are in the Catskills. Ha!!!! About a 12 inch snowpack up here at the house with another foot coming tomorrow. Going to really help out the reservoir for the spring

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Feb 11, 2017 5:59 pm

12 inch snow pack here too buddy however you are in a much better spot for tomorrow. I think we will be sitting right on the snow sleet border for much of this. If I get 6 inches out of this it will be all good, anymore will be a gift. Ace said I'd get a foot, from his mouth to Gods ears.

Enjoy and if you somehow make out on both ends with this, in other words when you get to LI tomorrow night if somehow it becomes heavy snow there as the storm strengthens off the coast never speak to me again.
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Post by Lnda23 Sat Feb 11, 2017 6:02 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@Lnda23 wrote:I don't post on here but I have to say I am very concerned about the ice.

Hey neighbor!

Up to a quarter of an inch is possible, but I think it will be mostly to our west. Maybe we can get a tenth of an inch.

Fingers crossed! I have to ref a few games in Maplewood between 1 & 4pm.
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Post by aiannone Sat Feb 11, 2017 6:26 pm

Warm front has been stuck over extreme SW LI/NYC for hours. Cold air resistance holding it up. Hence temps near 50 in central NJ and SW LI and central and eastern LI on north and east in the mid 30s..... hmmmm
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Post by Scullybutcher Sat Feb 11, 2017 6:44 pm

@aiannone wrote:Warm front has been stuck over extreme SW LI/NYC for hours. Cold air resistance holding it up. Hence temps near 50 in central NJ and SW LI and central and eastern LI on north and east in the mid 30s..... hmmmm

Are you suggesting  the snow line should be moved down just a bit for tomorrow
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Post by sroc4 Sat Feb 11, 2017 6:51 pm

@Scullybutcher wrote:
@aiannone wrote:Warm front has been stuck over extreme SW LI/NYC for hours. Cold air resistance holding it up. Hence temps near 50 in central NJ and SW LI and central and eastern LI on north and east in the mid 30s..... hmmmm

Are you suggesting  the snow line should be moved down just a bit for tomorrow

Don't bet on it but don't be surprised if areas north of 495 on LI see an inch or two. Snow pack can do wonderful things. Things models cannot detect.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by sroc4 Sat Feb 11, 2017 6:57 pm

Upton: Minor adjustments made based on latest observations. Noted some
colder air dropping southward across the Connecticut Valley with
reading already into the upper 20s and lower 30s in northern
CT. The HRRR and RAP show some colder air working across CT and
LI overnight, colder than currently forecast. This will have to
be watched.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Math23x7 Sat Feb 11, 2017 7:00 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@Scullybutcher wrote:
@aiannone wrote:Warm front has been stuck over extreme SW LI/NYC for hours. Cold air resistance holding it up. Hence temps near 50 in central NJ and SW LI and central and eastern LI on north and east in the mid 30s..... hmmmm

Are you suggesting  the snow line should be moved down just a bit for tomorrow

Don't bet on it but don't be surprised if areas north of 495 on LI see an inch or two. Snow pack can do wonderful things. Things models cannot detect.

This may unfortunately be the case for me yet again here.....

Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump - Page 6 Souths11

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Post by Joe Snow Sat Feb 11, 2017 7:45 pm

@Math23x7 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@Scullybutcher wrote:
@aiannone wrote:Warm front has been stuck over extreme SW LI/NYC for hours. Cold air resistance holding it up. Hence temps near 50 in central NJ and SW LI and central and eastern LI on north and east in the mid 30s..... hmmmm

Are you suggesting  the snow line should be moved down just a bit for tomorrow

Don't bet on it but don't be surprised if areas north of 495 on LI see an inch or two. Snow pack can do wonderful things. Things models cannot detect.

This may unfortunately be the case for me yet again here.....

Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump - Page 6 Souths11

I guess I am sitting pretty in Stony Brook...........Maybe
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Post by Scullybutcher Sat Feb 11, 2017 7:50 pm

I was thinking the same thing Joe
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Post by Guest Sat Feb 11, 2017 9:02 pm

Barring any last second cooling, it looks like I'll spending most of the time watching it rain at 33 or 34 degrees.

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Post by amugs Sat Feb 11, 2017 9:09 pm

SNowpack for the third time do wonderful things for our boundary layer and skew teh temps. Again it was to be 50 and rain tomorrow - now it is mid/upper 20's to freezing. HRRR picking up on this with each run.

Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump - Page 6 Hrrr_2017021200_ref_pennsylvania

NAM PARA - has been hot this winter = colder check out the latest SV
Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump - Page 6 589fc03876530.thumb.png.5501a10f108de1340167e74885c4be7c

Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump - Page 6 IMG_0538.thumb.PNG.117ed0ea5387c6cf0aded01237fb7343

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Post by amugs Sat Feb 11, 2017 9:12 pm

Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump - Page 6 Hrrr_t2m_nyc_16.thumb.png.a4767d6900c99216b8598155e862fe5e

850s

Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump - Page 6 Hrrr_t850_nyc_16.thumb.png.2f63a1b4335ce6b0a7af12a6040a725b


Recipe for Ice

Thresh hold for ice storm warning is .25 for NNJ and up

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Post by 2004blackwrx Sat Feb 11, 2017 9:18 pm

Judging by the lack of post i can tell there are few of us that are in orange puntam and dutchess county and north

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Post by amugs Sat Feb 11, 2017 9:26 pm

JMAN wind event - WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA here

Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump - Page 6 IMG_0558.thumb.JPG.9cfc31b5b368c34d0cdea9945ddd14ca

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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by Guest Sat Feb 11, 2017 9:45 pm

Red Sox Suck blizzard watch 12-18" expected. F me

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Post by amugs Sat Feb 11, 2017 10:01 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Red Sox Suck blizzard watch 12-18" expected. F me

MillerB's they jackpot - we usually get minor effects compared.

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Post by Guest Sat Feb 11, 2017 10:27 pm

I know. Still. F Red Sox Suck

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