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Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Feb 11, 2017 9:32 am

@TheAresian wrote:I don't see any winners with this system.

Parts of the HV in line for 6-10 inches the further north yo go on the short trem models, RGEM, NAM, but so very close and mid levels near or above freezing makes the call even more difficult. RB's map had most of HV in 6-10 that's probably as realistic as the current NWS call of 2-4, 3-5. Almost anything still on the table.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Feb 11, 2017 9:37 am

@rb924119 wrote:One thing that has me very concerned is the icing threat combined with a strong wind threat. It looks like ice amounts might have to be bumped up to potentially .35" ice accretion possible for my areas in blue, and up to 0.2" in the grey. Wind is also very concerning, especially given the icing potential, as sustained speeds will generally reach 15-30 mph with gusts possibly up to 55 mph Sunday evening through Monday morning, before they start to slowly calm down during the late morning and afternoon. BAD BAD BAD BAD BAD.
you know jman is not on his game when rb is talking bout near high wind warning winds and ice storm b4 I did. Euro winds are very impressive. Rb u think they will mix to surface? So now it appears I have to b weary to drive even on the coast. I can handle snow but ice no way. What time do the pros on here believe the icing will happen?
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Post by Guest Sat Feb 11, 2017 9:38 am

The temps are the reason I said I don't see any. Hopefully it gets/stays cold enough for people to cash in.

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Post by rb924119 Sat Feb 11, 2017 9:50 am

@jmanley32 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:One thing that has me very concerned is the icing threat combined with a strong wind threat. It looks like ice amounts might have to be bumped up to potentially .35" ice accretion possible for my areas in blue, and up to 0.2" in the grey. Wind is also very concerning, especially given the icing potential, as sustained speeds will generally reach 15-30 mph with gusts possibly up to 55 mph Sunday evening through Monday morning, before they start to slowly calm down during the late morning and afternoon. BAD BAD BAD BAD BAD.
you know jman is not on his game when rb is talking bout near high wind warning winds and ice storm b4 I did. Euro winds are very impressive. Rb u think they will mix to surface? So now it appears I have to b weary to drive even on the coast. I can handle snow but ice no way. What time do the pros on here believe the icing will happen?

Once the precipitation starts winding down and the inversion mixes out via column-deep cold air advection, I absolutely think they will. The icing threat is pretty much all of tomorrow.

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Post by oldtimer Sat Feb 11, 2017 9:57 am

Come on CP Lets get that 6-10 but no ice please!

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Post by jimv45 Sat Feb 11, 2017 10:05 am

looking like all snow north of I 84 hope so no ice please hope the snow moves south with the winds the ice would be a major deal and if its heavy wet snow it could be a problem as well!

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Post by hyde345 Sat Feb 11, 2017 10:41 am

Latest RGEM snow map

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2017021112/rgem_asnow_us_16.png
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Post by jimv45 Sat Feb 11, 2017 10:46 am

looks good for us hyde

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Feb 11, 2017 10:48 am

@rb924119 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:One thing that has me very concerned is the icing threat combined with a strong wind threat. It looks like ice amounts might have to be bumped up to potentially .35" ice accretion possible for my areas in blue, and up to 0.2" in the grey. Wind is also very concerning, especially given the icing potential, as sustained speeds will generally reach 15-30 mph with gusts possibly up to 55 mph Sunday evening through Monday morning, before they start to slowly calm down during the late morning and afternoon. BAD BAD BAD BAD BAD.
you know jman is not on his game when rb is talking bout near high wind warning winds and ice storm b4 I did. Euro winds are very impressive. Rb u think they will mix to surface? So now it appears I have to b weary to drive even on the coast. I can handle snow but ice no way. What time do the pros on here believe the icing will happen?

Once the precipitation starts winding down and the inversion mixes out via column-deep cold air advection, I absolutely think they will. The icing threat is pretty much all of tomorrow.
crap then I'm go have cut my trip.short and leave tonight. I don't see any ice totals in the southern westchester area. Is that an area u see ice beimg an issue? And ya wow I think we will def see a wind advisory issued later if not a hww. All the models have 50 to 60 mph gusts for quite a duration.
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Post by Radz Sat Feb 11, 2017 10:55 am

GFS colder too...
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Post by hyde345 Sat Feb 11, 2017 11:01 am

@jimv45 wrote:looks good for us hyde

Yes it does
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Post by rb924119 Sat Feb 11, 2017 11:08 am

@jmanley32 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:One thing that has me very concerned is the icing threat combined with a strong wind threat. It looks like ice amounts might have to be bumped up to potentially .35" ice accretion possible for my areas in blue, and up to 0.2" in the grey. Wind is also very concerning, especially given the icing potential, as sustained speeds will generally reach 15-30 mph with gusts possibly up to 55 mph Sunday evening through Monday morning, before they start to slowly calm down during the late morning and afternoon. BAD BAD BAD BAD BAD.
you know jman is not on his game when rb is talking bout near high wind warning winds and ice storm b4 I did. Euro winds are very impressive. Rb u think they will mix to surface? So now it appears I have to b weary to drive even on the coast. I can handle snow but ice no way. What time do the pros on here believe the icing will happen?

Once the precipitation starts winding down and the inversion mixes out via column-deep cold air advection, I absolutely think they will. The icing threat is pretty much all of tomorrow.
crap then I'm go have cut my trip.short and leave tonight. I don't see any ice totals in the southern westchester area. Is that an area u see ice beimg an issue? And ya wow I think we will def see a wind advisory issued later if not a hww. All the models have 50 to 60 mph gusts for quite a duration.

Yeah. If you take a look at my map on the first page, and then reference what you first quoted here, those are essentially my updated thoughts. I can't really elaborate much further because my parents are having their delayed Christmas party today, so I'm getting ready for that and helping them, but going to be sporadically checking in when I can haha

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Post by rb924119 Sat Feb 11, 2017 11:15 am

Extended HRRR is awefully blueeeeeee Wink Wink Wink

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Post by Dunnzoo Sat Feb 11, 2017 11:28 am

NAM soundings at Teterboro have freezing rain from about 4am to 11am, then changing to rain, then snow at 3 am Monday for a little bit.....

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
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Post by Guest Sat Feb 11, 2017 11:46 am

Good news for all of us is that Red Sox Suck looks to miss out on the heaviest snows tomorrow and Monday. Rain mixing issues keep them at about 4-8" which makes me feel somewhat better.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Feb 11, 2017 12:16 pm

@hyde345 wrote:Latest RGEM snow map

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2017021112/rgem_asnow_us_16.png

You're looking good there Hyde, I'm right at warning level snow and with 850 freezing line hanging over me this could be anything for Orange County, from another sleet storm, to freezing rain to 5-8 of snow. I'm favoring snow for now but I have a decided bias.
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Post by Grselig Sat Feb 11, 2017 12:23 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Good news for all of us is that Red Sox Suck looks to miss out on the heaviest snows tomorrow and Monday.  Rain mixing issues keep them at about 4-8" which makes me feel somewhat better.  


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I'm a mets and Giants fan. 1986 was a great memory. Buckner!!! Giants got 2 rings off of Brady. for all rights I can't hate them. But they got so much snow a few years ago, I am still bitter. And too many superbowls. They don't deserve the snow. We have more rights then they do. Bastards. Hope they just get grey slush.
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Post by Grselig Sat Feb 11, 2017 12:24 pm

@rb924119 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:One thing that has me very concerned is the icing threat combined with a strong wind threat. It looks like ice amounts might have to be bumped up to potentially .35" ice accretion possible for my areas in blue, and up to 0.2" in the grey. Wind is also very concerning, especially given the icing potential, as sustained speeds will generally reach 15-30 mph with gusts possibly up to 55 mph Sunday evening through Monday morning, before they start to slowly calm down during the late morning and afternoon. BAD BAD BAD BAD BAD.
you know jman is not on his game when rb is talking bout near high wind warning winds and ice storm b4 I did. Euro winds are very impressive. Rb u think they will mix to surface? So now it appears I have to b weary to drive even on the coast. I can handle snow but ice no way. What time do the pros on here believe the icing will happen?

Once the precipitation starts winding down and the inversion mixes out via column-deep cold air advection, I absolutely think they will. The icing threat is pretty much all of tomorrow.
crap then I'm go have cut my trip.short and leave tonight. I don't see any ice totals in the southern westchester area. Is that an area u see ice beimg an issue? And ya wow I think we will def see a wind advisory issued later if not a hww. All the models have 50 to 60 mph gusts for quite a duration.

Yeah. If you take a look at my map on the first page, and then reference what you first quoted here, those are essentially my updated thoughts. I can't really elaborate much further because my parents are having their delayed Christmas party today, so I'm getting ready for that and helping them, but going to be sporadically checking in when I can haha

Enjoy the belated Holiday. Nice that its white outside
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Post by hyde345 Sat Feb 11, 2017 12:30 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@hyde345 wrote:Latest RGEM snow map

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2017021112/rgem_asnow_us_16.png

You're looking good there Hyde, I'm right at warning level snow and with 850 freezing line hanging over me this could be anything for Orange County, from another sleet storm, to freezing rain to 5-8 of snow. I'm favoring snow for now but I have a decided bias.

It's going to be a close call for the HV between a snow/sleet/ mix or mostly snow. I84 seems to be the battleground. I'm 20 miles north of 84 so I'm hoping that helps. I think there will be a snow/sleet mixture with some rain mixing in too later Sunday. I'm thinking 5-8 for my area. It will be interesting if NWS Albany changes my WSWatch to a warning or WWA. The criteria in this zone is if 7 inches or more are expected then its a warning, otherwise advisory.
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Post by aiannone Sat Feb 11, 2017 12:46 pm

Euro just initialized. Here we go
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Post by aiannone Sat Feb 11, 2017 12:53 pm

12z EURO slightly colder through 24
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Post by aiannone Sat Feb 11, 2017 12:59 pm

NYC on east goes snow to rain to snow as it strengthens earlier and further south
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Post by hyde345 Sat Feb 11, 2017 1:04 pm

@aiannone wrote:NYC on east goes snow to rain to snow as it strengthens earlier and further south

Please post a snow map if you can.
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Post by aiannone Sat Feb 11, 2017 1:06 pm

Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump - Page 2 16508510
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Post by aiannone Sat Feb 11, 2017 1:09 pm

Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump - Page 2 16602510
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