Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump
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Re: Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump
Snow88 wrote:Nam Para is coming in colder than the regular Nam. Icy mess just north I mean just north of NYC.
looks like I'm in for a real icy treat tomorrow lol
RJB8525- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump
I don't see any winners with this system.
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Re: Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump
TheAresian wrote:I don't see any winners with this system.
Parts of the HV in line for 6-10 inches the further north yo go on the short trem models, RGEM, NAM, but so very close and mid levels near or above freezing makes the call even more difficult. RB's map had most of HV in 6-10 that's probably as realistic as the current NWS call of 2-4, 3-5. Almost anything still on the table.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump
you know jman is not on his game when rb is talking bout near high wind warning winds and ice storm b4 I did. Euro winds are very impressive. Rb u think they will mix to surface? So now it appears I have to b weary to drive even on the coast. I can handle snow but ice no way. What time do the pros on here believe the icing will happen?rb924119 wrote:One thing that has me very concerned is the icing threat combined with a strong wind threat. It looks like ice amounts might have to be bumped up to potentially .35" ice accretion possible for my areas in blue, and up to 0.2" in the grey. Wind is also very concerning, especially given the icing potential, as sustained speeds will generally reach 15-30 mph with gusts possibly up to 55 mph Sunday evening through Monday morning, before they start to slowly calm down during the late morning and afternoon. BAD BAD BAD BAD BAD.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump
The temps are the reason I said I don't see any. Hopefully it gets/stays cold enough for people to cash in.
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Re: Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump
jmanley32 wrote:you know jman is not on his game when rb is talking bout near high wind warning winds and ice storm b4 I did. Euro winds are very impressive. Rb u think they will mix to surface? So now it appears I have to b weary to drive even on the coast. I can handle snow but ice no way. What time do the pros on here believe the icing will happen?rb924119 wrote:One thing that has me very concerned is the icing threat combined with a strong wind threat. It looks like ice amounts might have to be bumped up to potentially .35" ice accretion possible for my areas in blue, and up to 0.2" in the grey. Wind is also very concerning, especially given the icing potential, as sustained speeds will generally reach 15-30 mph with gusts possibly up to 55 mph Sunday evening through Monday morning, before they start to slowly calm down during the late morning and afternoon. BAD BAD BAD BAD BAD.
Once the precipitation starts winding down and the inversion mixes out via column-deep cold air advection, I absolutely think they will. The icing threat is pretty much all of tomorrow.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump
Come on CP Lets get that 6-10 but no ice please!
oldtimer- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump
looking like all snow north of I 84 hope so no ice please hope the snow moves south with the winds the ice would be a major deal and if its heavy wet snow it could be a problem as well!
jimv45- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump
Latest RGEM snow map
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2017021112/rgem_asnow_us_16.png
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2017021112/rgem_asnow_us_16.png
hyde345- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump
looks good for us hyde
jimv45- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump
crap then I'm go have cut my trip.short and leave tonight. I don't see any ice totals in the southern westchester area. Is that an area u see ice beimg an issue? And ya wow I think we will def see a wind advisory issued later if not a hww. All the models have 50 to 60 mph gusts for quite a duration.rb924119 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:you know jman is not on his game when rb is talking bout near high wind warning winds and ice storm b4 I did. Euro winds are very impressive. Rb u think they will mix to surface? So now it appears I have to b weary to drive even on the coast. I can handle snow but ice no way. What time do the pros on here believe the icing will happen?rb924119 wrote:One thing that has me very concerned is the icing threat combined with a strong wind threat. It looks like ice amounts might have to be bumped up to potentially .35" ice accretion possible for my areas in blue, and up to 0.2" in the grey. Wind is also very concerning, especially given the icing potential, as sustained speeds will generally reach 15-30 mph with gusts possibly up to 55 mph Sunday evening through Monday morning, before they start to slowly calm down during the late morning and afternoon. BAD BAD BAD BAD BAD.
Once the precipitation starts winding down and the inversion mixes out via column-deep cold air advection, I absolutely think they will. The icing threat is pretty much all of tomorrow.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump
GFS colder too...
Radz- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump
jimv45 wrote:looks good for us hyde
Yes it does
hyde345- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump
jmanley32 wrote:crap then I'm go have cut my trip.short and leave tonight. I don't see any ice totals in the southern westchester area. Is that an area u see ice beimg an issue? And ya wow I think we will def see a wind advisory issued later if not a hww. All the models have 50 to 60 mph gusts for quite a duration.rb924119 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:you know jman is not on his game when rb is talking bout near high wind warning winds and ice storm b4 I did. Euro winds are very impressive. Rb u think they will mix to surface? So now it appears I have to b weary to drive even on the coast. I can handle snow but ice no way. What time do the pros on here believe the icing will happen?rb924119 wrote:One thing that has me very concerned is the icing threat combined with a strong wind threat. It looks like ice amounts might have to be bumped up to potentially .35" ice accretion possible for my areas in blue, and up to 0.2" in the grey. Wind is also very concerning, especially given the icing potential, as sustained speeds will generally reach 15-30 mph with gusts possibly up to 55 mph Sunday evening through Monday morning, before they start to slowly calm down during the late morning and afternoon. BAD BAD BAD BAD BAD.
Once the precipitation starts winding down and the inversion mixes out via column-deep cold air advection, I absolutely think they will. The icing threat is pretty much all of tomorrow.
Yeah. If you take a look at my map on the first page, and then reference what you first quoted here, those are essentially my updated thoughts. I can't really elaborate much further because my parents are having their delayed Christmas party today, so I'm getting ready for that and helping them, but going to be sporadically checking in when I can haha
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump
Extended HRRR is awefully blueeeeeee




rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump
NAM soundings at Teterboro have freezing rain from about 4am to 11am, then changing to rain, then snow at 3 am Monday for a little bit.....
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Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump
Good news for all of us is that Red Sox Suck looks to miss out on the heaviest snows tomorrow and Monday. Rain mixing issues keep them at about 4-8" which makes me feel somewhat better.
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Re: Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump
hyde345 wrote:Latest RGEM snow map
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2017021112/rgem_asnow_us_16.png
You're looking good there Hyde, I'm right at warning level snow and with 850 freezing line hanging over me this could be anything for Orange County, from another sleet storm, to freezing rain to 5-8 of snow. I'm favoring snow for now but I have a decided bias.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump
syosnow94 wrote:Good news for all of us is that Red Sox Suck looks to miss out on the heaviest snows tomorrow and Monday. Rain mixing issues keep them at about 4-8" which makes me feel somewhat better.
Banter
I'm a mets and Giants fan. 1986 was a great memory. Buckner!!! Giants got 2 rings off of Brady. for all rights I can't hate them. But they got so much snow a few years ago, I am still bitter. And too many superbowls. They don't deserve the snow. We have more rights then they do. Bastards. Hope they just get grey slush.
Grselig- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump
rb924119 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:crap then I'm go have cut my trip.short and leave tonight. I don't see any ice totals in the southern westchester area. Is that an area u see ice beimg an issue? And ya wow I think we will def see a wind advisory issued later if not a hww. All the models have 50 to 60 mph gusts for quite a duration.rb924119 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:you know jman is not on his game when rb is talking bout near high wind warning winds and ice storm b4 I did. Euro winds are very impressive. Rb u think they will mix to surface? So now it appears I have to b weary to drive even on the coast. I can handle snow but ice no way. What time do the pros on here believe the icing will happen?rb924119 wrote:One thing that has me very concerned is the icing threat combined with a strong wind threat. It looks like ice amounts might have to be bumped up to potentially .35" ice accretion possible for my areas in blue, and up to 0.2" in the grey. Wind is also very concerning, especially given the icing potential, as sustained speeds will generally reach 15-30 mph with gusts possibly up to 55 mph Sunday evening through Monday morning, before they start to slowly calm down during the late morning and afternoon. BAD BAD BAD BAD BAD.
Once the precipitation starts winding down and the inversion mixes out via column-deep cold air advection, I absolutely think they will. The icing threat is pretty much all of tomorrow.
Yeah. If you take a look at my map on the first page, and then reference what you first quoted here, those are essentially my updated thoughts. I can't really elaborate much further because my parents are having their delayed Christmas party today, so I'm getting ready for that and helping them, but going to be sporadically checking in when I can haha
Enjoy the belated Holiday. Nice that its white outside
Grselig- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:hyde345 wrote:Latest RGEM snow map
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2017021112/rgem_asnow_us_16.png
You're looking good there Hyde, I'm right at warning level snow and with 850 freezing line hanging over me this could be anything for Orange County, from another sleet storm, to freezing rain to 5-8 of snow. I'm favoring snow for now but I have a decided bias.
It's going to be a close call for the HV between a snow/sleet/ mix or mostly snow. I84 seems to be the battleground. I'm 20 miles north of 84 so I'm hoping that helps. I think there will be a snow/sleet mixture with some rain mixing in too later Sunday. I'm thinking 5-8 for my area. It will be interesting if NWS Albany changes my WSWatch to a warning or WWA. The criteria in this zone is if 7 inches or more are expected then its a warning, otherwise advisory.
hyde345- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump
Euro just initialized. Here we go
aiannone- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump
12z EURO slightly colder through 24
aiannone- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump
NYC on east goes snow to rain to snow as it strengthens earlier and further south
aiannone- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump
aiannone wrote:NYC on east goes snow to rain to snow as it strengthens earlier and further south
Please post a snow map if you can.
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aiannone- Advanced Forecaster
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