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Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Feb 11, 2017 2:35 pm

syosnow94 wrote:At exit 15 rest stop on NYS thruway. Heading up to mom and dads for the snowstorm tomorrow. They are under a WSW FOR 7"+. NWS POINT and click has them at 8-11". Driving home tomorrow night  in the snow. Jman if I can do it with my family you can do it with a bunch of dudes from a casino. No need to cancel. Just drive my man.

I'm getting a little tired of you using the Hudson Valley for our snowstorms when Long Island promises to bomb out on you. People should be loyal to their area and prepare to go down with the ship if that's what's going to happen. You're the type that would've pushed every woman and child out of your way just to get off of the titanic
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Post by aiannone Sat Feb 11, 2017 2:40 pm

BGM updated me to mostly snow here now. Going with the Euro.

Tonight: Sleet likely, mainly after 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 31. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Sunday: Snow, possibly mixed with sleet, becoming all snow after 4pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 33. Southeast wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of around 2 inches.

Sunday Night: Snow, mainly before 4am. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 26. Southwest wind 6 to 11 mph becoming northwest 13 to 18 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of around 2 inches.
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Post by aiannone Sat Feb 11, 2017 2:45 pm

Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump - Page 4 16649210
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Post by aiannone Sat Feb 11, 2017 2:50 pm


...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST
MONDAY...

The National Weather Service in Binghamton has issued a Winter
Storm Warning for heavy snow...which is in effect from 7 AM
Sunday to 1 PM EST Monday. The Winter Weather Advisory is no
longer in effect.

* LOCATIONS...Seneca...Southern Cayuga...Tompkins...Cortland...
Tioga...Broome and Sullivan Counties in New York.

* HAZARD TYPES...Heavy snow and periods of sleet and freezing
rain.

* ACCUMULATIONS...Snow accumulation of 6 to 12 inches...along
with around a trace of ice.

* TIMING...A mix of sleet and freezing rain will move in late
tonight and persist into Sunday morning. Precipitation will
change to all snow Sunday afternoon and continue into Monday.
Strong north winds will develop Monday and cause blowing and
drifting snow.

* IMPACTS...Snow and ice accumulations will make many roads
treacherous and impassable. Strong winds will lead to blowing
snow, reduced visibility, and additional power outages.

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph Sunday
night and Monday.

* TEMPERATURES...In the upper 20s.
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Post by Quietace Sat Feb 11, 2017 2:51 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@aiannone wrote:Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump - Page 4 16602510
Hi.

Finally Plymouth State may pay off big time. This is what you've been waiting for I hope it pans out for you  
Considering I went here for this....and I recived more snow at home last year than up here, I am due.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Feb 11, 2017 2:52 pm

@aiannone wrote:Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump - Page 4 16649210

Wow, it just keeps getting better? Can this keep trending in a positive direction until it hits?
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Post by Quietace Sat Feb 11, 2017 2:53 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@aiannone wrote:Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump - Page 4 16649210

Wow, it just keeps getting better? Can this keep trending in a positive direction until it hits?
You will get a foot.

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Post by aiannone Sat Feb 11, 2017 2:56 pm

18z NAM coming in now. Awfully slow of course
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Post by Snow88 Sat Feb 11, 2017 3:02 pm

Nam is coming in colder once again
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Post by aiannone Sat Feb 11, 2017 3:05 pm

NAM is very cold. NYC almost all snow through 27
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Feb 11, 2017 3:06 pm

@Snow88 wrote:Nam is coming in colder once again

So far the last 24 hour trends of this storm are like a dream you don't want to wake up from. I hope it can deliver.
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Post by sroc4 Sat Feb 11, 2017 3:09 pm

@oldtimer wrote:Mugs   Any chance for me 2-3?

Old timer do not be surprised to see 2-4" all along the NS of LI. With a solid snow pack the cold air should hang on.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by frank 638 Sat Feb 11, 2017 3:12 pm

Do you think the winter weather advisory will be extended East to NYC and Long Island

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Post by oldtimer Sat Feb 11, 2017 3:17 pm

Thanks Guys Just want fresh mantle on top of what we have Great!!

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Post by aiannone Sat Feb 11, 2017 3:18 pm

Upton still hasn't updated their warnings yet. Must be contemplating lol
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Post by sroc4 Sat Feb 11, 2017 3:19 pm

@oldtimer wrote:Thanks Guys  Just want fresh mantle on top of what we have  Great!!

I may be overambitious however. I havent analysed the modeling in great detail. Well see

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by sroc4 Sat Feb 11, 2017 3:20 pm

@frank 638 wrote:Do you think the winter weather advisory will be extended East to NYC and Long Island

I think if they do it wont be until tomorrow am IF additional s/r modeling trends more favorable.

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Guest Sat Feb 11, 2017 3:21 pm

The 100 year old oak trees got that big and strong. because they can handle worse than what we are going to see boys.

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Post by Snow88 Sat Feb 11, 2017 3:22 pm

Looks like 1-2 inches on the NAM for NYC ( snow/ sleet ) before it turns to rain.
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Post by hyde345 Sat Feb 11, 2017 3:24 pm

Just got winter storm warning for 4-8 of snow and sleet. I'm hoping for more snow than sleet.
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Post by aiannone Sat Feb 11, 2017 3:24 pm

Winter Weather Advisory just issued for LI
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Post by aiannone Sat Feb 11, 2017 3:25 pm

323 PM EST Sat Feb 11 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO NOON EST
SUNDAY...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Winter Weather
Advisory for snow and freezing rain...which is in effect from 2
AM to noon EST Sunday.

* Locations...New York City, Long Island, most of Northeast New
Jersey and Southern Westchester and Fairfield Counties.

* Hazard Types...Snow and ice accumulation.

* Snow and Ice Accumulations...Snow accumulation of up to 1
inch...along with up to a few hundredths of an inch of ice.

* Timing...Late tonight through Sunday morning.

* Impacts...Hazardous/slippery travel due to snow and ice
accumulations.

* Temperatures...In the lower 30s.
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Post by Dunnzoo Sat Feb 11, 2017 3:25 pm

Not liking all the pink showing up for NNJ. Will have to check the soundings and see if it is a mix or freezing rain or sleet. Ugh, just give me plain snow! NAM does give me about 3"

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Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
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Post by amugs Sat Feb 11, 2017 3:29 pm

Thisnoffbthe euro but trend is colder so I think this will be updated 
Sunday February 12th Possible Front-End Snow Thump - Page 4 Img_2069

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Feb 11, 2017 3:30 pm

@hyde345 wrote:Just got winter storm warning for 4-8 of snow and sleet. I'm hoping for more snow than sleet.

Sounds like they're going a little conservative, but I guess with the possibility still lof mixing and sleet it could verify.
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