Re: March 2017 Observations & Discussions

by **docstox12** Mon Mar 27, 2017 2:33 pm

49.6, 78%, 29.76 F

.31 in the bucket.

Snow cover on the property 80% but rapidly melting now.Will be down to just snow piles soon.Enjoying the last almost full snowpack day on my property today.Won't see it again until Nov or Dec unless an April surprise comes but that's a dim prospect long range.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Mar 28, 2017 8:39 am

After an afternoon high of 46 Monday (27th) with clouds and and light rain at times through the day and a Tuesday morning low of 36, the snow pack Tuesday (28th) morning is down to 1.2 inches and will end the 18 consecutive days of snow pack for the month after today and 85 days for the season.

Current temp 40.6

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Mar 28, 2017 9:29 am

Raw and ugly outside. Looking over guidance, we're expected to remain relatively cool through the first week of April. More rain this Friday. Spring is in no hurry to get here.

by **Snow88** Tue Mar 28, 2017 9:32 am

Very wet period ahead

The tracks of the storms on the 0z GFS would have been great during the winter.

by **weatherwatchermom** Tue Mar 28, 2017 10:37 am

HOLY THUNDER STORM....and heavy rain....1.22 inches of rain this morning....temps 43*

by **frank 638** Tue Mar 28, 2017 11:49 am

Heavy rain with thunderstorm at JFK at least it is washing away alll this salt from the roads

by **Snow88** Tue Mar 28, 2017 1:18 pm

Models have a nice storm for New England this weekend

by **rb924119** Tue Mar 28, 2017 2:03 pm

Just got to my parents' house in NEPA, where I'll be staying for a few days during a short break before I start my new job, only to discover that there is still 100% snowpack here lmao I love this place ahaha

by **skinsfan1177** Tue Mar 28, 2017 2:27 pm

What a wet March here approaching 5.00 inches for the month which we will pass by friday

by **frank 638** Tue Mar 28, 2017 8:09 pm

More heavy rain at least this rain is helping our drought

by **Dtone** Tue Mar 28, 2017 9:52 pm

Heard some thunder with those downpours

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Mar 29, 2017 7:57 am

All I see is moderate sized Nor'easter in the long range. One this Friday, another next Tuesday, and possibly another next Saturday.

Womp womp womp

by **Snow88** Wed Mar 29, 2017 9:17 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:All I see is moderate sized Nor'easter in the long range. One this Friday, another next Tuesday, and possibly another next Saturday.

Womp womp womp

Of course it happens now Evil or Very Mad

by **rb924119** Wed Mar 29, 2017 9:18 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:All I see is moderate sized Nor'easter in the long range. One this Friday, another next Tuesday, and possibly another next Saturday.

Womp womp womp

Kick in the proverbial teeth lol but this is such a nasty pattern. Cold, damp, dreary, and grey. Typical Spring in the Northeast! May still see a sneaky snow event before mid-April and the actual change to warmth.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Wed Mar 29, 2017 9:44 am

@rb924119 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:All I see is moderate sized Nor'easter in the long range. One this Friday, another next Tuesday, and possibly another next Saturday.

Womp womp womp

Kick in the proverbial teeth lol but this is such a nasty pattern. Cold, damp, dreary, and grey. Typical Spring in the Northeast! May still see a sneaky snow event before mid-April and the actual change to warmth.

Fridays storm would have been prime just two weeks ago. Looking at 30's and cold rain now throughout the event with some mixed frozen precip at times. Oh well, like you say one more sneaky event hopefully before we have to call it quits until next November, or with any luck next October.

by **Snow88** Wed Mar 29, 2017 1:28 pm

12z GFS got colder for this Friday and actually has some snow for CT with more accumulations northward. I would love more snow down here.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Wed Mar 29, 2017 1:42 pm

This is getting tantalizing close for the HV. The problem is how much of this is really snow and how much is sleet or worse freezing rain. I want one more event.

March 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 9 17629710

March 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 9 17629710

by **Snow88** Wed Mar 29, 2017 3:00 pm

3 big rainstorms on the Euro moving forward

Spring isn't coming anytime soon

by **skinsfan1177** Wed Mar 29, 2017 4:22 pm

@Snow88 wrote:3 big rainstorms on the Euro moving forward

Spring isn't coming anytime soon

Yeah nor easters

by **frank 638** Wed Mar 29, 2017 4:31 pm

A gorgeous day today had a high of 56 degrees and my snow pack is gone noooooo

by **sroc4** Wed Mar 29, 2017 4:49 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@Snow88 wrote:3 big rainstorms on the Euro moving forward

Spring isn't coming anytime soon

Yeah nor easters

I love Easter too. One of my favorite holidays....oh wait

by **frank 638** Wed Mar 29, 2017 5:03 pm

Fri nite Lee was saying it's gone be nasty 1 to 2 inces of rain I love haveing a rainy raw conditions can't wait lol

by **skinsfan1177** Wed Mar 29, 2017 5:19 pm

68° here right now perfect outside MR. sunshine

by **algae888** Thu Mar 30, 2017 5:15 am

sleet storm for interior on Friday.. march going out like a lion...
March 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 9 Namconus_asnow_neus_24

March 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 9 Nam3km_asnow_neus_61

March 2017 Observations & Discussions - Page 9 Gfs_asnow_neus_11

by **algae888** Thu Mar 30, 2017 5:17 am

nws disco...
Across interior portions of NE NJ/Lower Hud Valley/Southern
CT...thermal profiles will be marginally cold enough to
complicate the forecast late Tonight through Friday Night. Storm
track will be critical...with a farther south track favoring
cooler and more wintry mix potential...while a track over NYC/LI
favors warmer thermal profile and more in the way of plain
rain.

At onset of steadier precip lat tonight/Fri am...evap cooling
will increase the likelihood for a wintry mix of rain/sleet and
snow across interior. Operational models all indicating warming
aloft as Fri morning progresses but to differing degrees. With
that said...March boundary layer warming should allow for precip
in most areas to become mainly rain by afternoon...except
elevations above 750-1000 ft or so.

Late Fri Aft into Fri night...dynamics increase as closed low energy
approaches and frontogenetic banding strengthens over the area
to the north of the developing coastal low. At the same time
low-level winds backing to the ne/n should allow the boundary
layer to slowly cool. The question will be whether diabatic
processes can overcome warming aloft from se llj to bring a
period of heavier sleet...possibly mixed with snow. 90 percent
exceedance snowfall forecast covers this low potential for a
complete wintry changeover. Another concern is that
temperatures across interior...particularly higher
elevations...could drop to freezing Fri night...introducing the
potential for freezing rain. Marginal temp profiles will not
support efficient icing...but the threat for some light icing is
there.

With all this said...this is a low confidence snow/sleet accum
forecast for the interior. At this point the most likely
outcome is varying combinations of mixed precip with a light
slushy accum of sleet/wet snow/fzra across the
interior...especially higher elevations (above 750-1000 ft)...by
the time everything winds down Sat am.

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