NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Page 6 of 8 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8  Next

Go down

Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event - Page 6 Empty Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by sroc4 Wed Mar 08, 2017 7:55 am

@mikeypizano wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@mikeypizano wrote:That NAM 4k is for just the Friday event?

yes

I guess its a good thing the big beastly Toro is back under the porch huh?

Im a supersitious man Mikey P. Therefore I will not comment on that just yet. Wink

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6867
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event - Page 6 Empty Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by mikeypizano Wed Mar 08, 2017 7:59 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@mikeypizano wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@mikeypizano wrote:That NAM 4k is for just the Friday event?

yes

I guess its a good thing the big beastly Toro is back under the porch huh?

Im a supersitious man Mikey P.  Therefore I will not comment on that just yet.  Wink

If it works, we get nothing! If it fails, I make money... Wink
mikeypizano
mikeypizano
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1019
Reputation : 63
Join date : 2017-01-05
Age : 32
Location : Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, PA

Back to top Go down

Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event - Page 6 Empty Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by sroc4 Wed Mar 08, 2017 8:18 am

RGEM has an interesting 500mb look to it.

Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event - Page 6 Synoptic_4panel_CONUS_hr048

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6867
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event - Page 6 Empty Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by billg315 Wed Mar 08, 2017 9:39 am

I'm looking at the 12Z GFS and it looks like after the snow starts to end mid-to-late morning Friday over North Jersey, it picks back up again into the evening (around hours 57, 60). Almost looks like a Norlun trough sets up back over the northern half of the state behind the system. But I don't know nearly enough about Norlun troughs to even know if that is what it is. I'll leave it to Scott or Frank to figure out why the model shows this "second band" of snow late in the day. But thinking that could add to the snow totals especially if its after 3 or 4 p.m. as the sun starts to set.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 3626
Reputation : 182
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 47
Location : Flemington, NJ

Back to top Go down

Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event - Page 6 Empty Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by sroc4 Wed Mar 08, 2017 10:38 am

@billg315 wrote:I'm looking at the 12Z GFS and it looks like after the snow starts to end mid-to-late morning Friday over North Jersey, it picks back up again into the evening (around hours 57, 60). Almost looks like a Norlun trough sets up back over the northern half of the state behind the system. But I don't know nearly enough about Norlun troughs to even know if that is what it is. I'll leave it to Scott or Frank to figure out why the model shows this "second band" of snow late in the day. But thinking that could add to the snow totals especially if its after 3 or 4 p.m. as the sun starts to set.

For me it goes back to why I said the rgem looked interesting.  If you folllow 500mb with surface youlll see precip starts light as the overrunning event associted with the energy I have circled furthest east; however there does look like there is some phasing that is occuring so we may see a second round, or back filling as the second  area circled rotes through.  This one is not nailed down just yet IMO.

Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event - Page 6 Synopt11
Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event - Page 6 Synopt10

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6867
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event - Page 6 Empty Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Mar 08, 2017 10:43 am

@billg315 wrote:I'm looking at the 12Z GFS and it looks like after the snow starts to end mid-to-late morning Friday over North Jersey, it picks back up again into the evening (around hours 57, 60). Almost looks like a Norlun trough sets up back over the northern half of the state behind the system. But I don't know nearly enough about Norlun troughs to even know if that is what it is. I'll leave it to Scott or Frank to figure out why the model shows this "second band" of snow late in the day. But thinking that could add to the snow totals especially if its after 3 or 4 p.m. as the sun starts to set.

The PVA associated with the trough rounding out our area is potent. The surface low is well east of the coast at this time, but this could definitely spawn additional snow showers late Friday.

Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event - Page 6 Namconus_z500_vort_neus_45


_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20002
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-04
Age : 28
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event - Page 6 Empty Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by algae888 Wed Mar 08, 2017 10:52 am

Most of the models have trended North except for the UK ie. Gives our area 6 to 9 inches of snow. A little concerning is the rgem being so far north but still not in its prime range yet
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5225
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 58
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event - Page 6 Empty Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by algae888 Wed Mar 08, 2017 11:02 am

The euro is south and looks similar to the UKIE. Do not have qpf feels so if someone can post
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5225
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 58
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event - Page 6 Empty Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Mar 08, 2017 11:03 am

EURO for wave 1

Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event - Page 6 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f51.thumb.jpg.b1f53342cd2a5dac312da7b481b50c09

Surface looks warm, precip is light, and it's coming during the day. Would not expect much.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20002
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-04
Age : 28
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event - Page 6 Empty Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Mar 08, 2017 11:17 am

1-3" incoming on Friday. Looks like 2am-10am timing. Isolated areas to see 4 inches.

Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event - Page 6 58c047bf08c35_snowfall_total_accum_10to1_PANJDE_hr060(1).thumb.png.600384425892f8a5ccf4ba6a25ef3bfd

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20002
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-04
Age : 28
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event - Page 6 Empty Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Mar 08, 2017 11:20 am

Most likely a thin stripe of 3-6" will exist somewhere between southern NY and north-central NJ. Where EURO places it makes sense given temp profiles.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20002
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-04
Age : 28
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event - Page 6 Empty Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by SoulSingMG Wed Mar 08, 2017 12:12 pm

Umm hello? EURO @ 12z...

Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event - Page 6 Img_3411
SoulSingMG
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2739
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY

Back to top Go down

Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event - Page 6 Empty Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Mar 08, 2017 12:31 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:Umm hello? EURO @ 12z...

Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event - Page 6 Img_3411

Check long range thread...

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20002
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-04
Age : 28
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event - Page 6 Empty Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by amugs Wed Mar 08, 2017 12:34 pm

SREFS solid 3" event

Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event - Page 6 SREFNE24Precip15060.jpg.a86e60f8cb697ce60e49c1ffa795c332

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12137
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event - Page 6 Empty Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by Math23x7 Wed Mar 08, 2017 12:40 pm

@amugs wrote:SREFS solid 3" event

Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event - Page 6 SREFNE24Precip15060.jpg.a86e60f8cb697ce60e49c1ffa795c332

The SREFs have been back and forth on the Friday snow. The 15Z SREF mean for LGA is lower than the prior run. Curious as to what the 21Z SREFS bring.

Also, The 12Z RGEM did not look great for Friday. Takes too long for the snow to come in and by the time it's cold enough, it's passed us by hr 48 (7 AM Friday). Also curious as to what the 18Z RGEM brings us as it would be in the critical stage at that point.

Math23x7
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 2287
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-08

Back to top Go down

Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event - Page 6 Empty Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by mikeypizano Wed Mar 08, 2017 1:00 pm

@Math23x7 wrote:
@amugs wrote:SREFS solid 3" event

Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event - Page 6 SREFNE24Precip15060.jpg.a86e60f8cb697ce60e49c1ffa795c332

The SREFs have been back and forth on the Friday snow.  The 15Z SREF mean for LGA is lower than the prior run.  Curious as to what the 21Z SREFS bring.

Also, The 12Z RGEM did not look great for Friday.  Takes too long for the snow to come in and by the time it's cold enough, it's passed us by hr 48 (7 AM Friday).  Also curious as to what the 18Z RGEM brings us as it would be in the critical stage at that point.

I wonder how it will be for me. The high tomorrow is going to be 51, and then snow over night, so I wonder how high it will actually get and how quick it drops. I hate slush on the bottom, and my snow blower hates it too.
mikeypizano
mikeypizano
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1019
Reputation : 63
Join date : 2017-01-05
Age : 32
Location : Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, PA

Back to top Go down

Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event - Page 6 Empty Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by SoulSingMG Wed Mar 08, 2017 2:45 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:Umm hello? EURO @ 12z...

Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event - Page 6 Img_3411

Check long range thread...

Argh! I'm such a doofus (and monitoring remotely on my phone)—just now realizing this thread isn't for all 3 waves we're watching lol. My bad, guys!
SoulSingMG
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2739
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY

Back to top Go down

Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event - Page 6 Empty Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by sroc4 Wed Mar 08, 2017 2:48 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:Umm hello? EURO @ 12z...

Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event - Page 6 Img_3411

Check long range thread...

Argh! I'm such a doofus (and monitoring remotely on my phone)—just now realizing this thread isn't for all 3 waves we're watching lol. My bad, guys!

Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event - Page 6 No-soup-for-ud3zqt

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6867
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event - Page 6 Empty Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by sroc4 Wed Mar 08, 2017 2:49 pm

18z GFS wetter for Friday

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6867
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event - Page 6 Empty Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by frank 638 Wed Mar 08, 2017 2:57 pm

lee goldberg has 1to 3 inches for most of us and 3 + for northern nj .now for the tues storm he thinks we could see a major noreaster this is getting exciting

frank 638
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2306
Reputation : 36
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 37
Location : bronx ny

Back to top Go down

Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event - Page 6 Empty Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Mar 08, 2017 4:07 pm

Maintain my thoughts of 1-3 inches with accumulations limited to cold surfaces. May start as rain NYC on south.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20002
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-04
Age : 28
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event - Page 6 Empty Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by RJB8525 Wed Mar 08, 2017 4:13 pm

@frank 638 wrote:lee goldberg has 1to 3 inches for most of us  and 3 + for northern nj .now for the tues storm he thinks we could see a major noreaster this is getting exciting

Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event - Page 6 SnowAmt90Prcntl
RJB8525
RJB8525
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1970
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 35
Location : Hackettstown, NJ

Back to top Go down

Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event - Page 6 Empty Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by dkodgis Wed Mar 08, 2017 5:00 pm

In tonight's forecast, Lee Goldberg said he thought the totals would be higher in the 11 pm forecast.
dkodgis
dkodgis
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1502
Reputation : 98
Join date : 2013-12-29

Back to top Go down

Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event - Page 6 Empty Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by amugs Wed Mar 08, 2017 7:50 pm

4K NAM

Nice hit NNJ and NYC North

Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event - Page 6 IMG_8154.thumb.PNG.29725f85aca7832e8bfa5b83a85c56ef


_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12137
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event - Page 6 Empty Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by Armando Salvadore Wed Mar 08, 2017 8:04 pm

Meh soundings not really supportive of snow, the column is saturated, but there is a warm tongue between 1000-925mb in the NYC metro. Going to need that vort max and H7 omega to produce just enough to allow some minor accumulation on cold surfaces, other than that think the better accumulating snow is confined towards I-80 and like a 10 mile distance N and S of it.
Armando Salvadore
Armando Salvadore
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 171
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2016-12-23
Location : Springfield, NJ

Back to top Go down

Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event - Page 6 Empty Re: Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 6 of 8 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum