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Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 06, 2017 1:41 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:Everyone in DC is rejoicing on Twitter from that last GFS run lol
I know I'm not hung up on any one run its just nail biting to see euro now so far south and gfs. Plenty of time to change but I guess suppression is a option.
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Post by billg315 Mon Mar 06, 2017 2:48 pm

I am a bit skeptical about Wave 1, not from a "what will fall from the sky" perspective but about actual impact at the surface. A mid-March snow, during daylight hours, with ground temps at or above freezing and no particularly "heavy" snow projected makes me think that whether it is a rain/snow mix or even mostly snow, it won't stick much on any paved surfaces which probably stay just wet. Now, wave 2 should be colder and the precipitation heavier and the storm may be deep enough to drag cold air in behind it. So I could see that storm featuring some accumulation even on roadways. Of course if the cold air entrenches far enough south -- then you may have suppression issues. Wave 3 is at night and cold. If we get snow from it, it should stick. Just my preliminary thoughts.
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Post by Snow88 Mon Mar 06, 2017 3:16 pm



EPS is north with the clipper like the Euro and squashes the 2nd wave way south



It seems like it always follows the op run
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Post by nutleyblizzard Mon Mar 06, 2017 3:31 pm

@Snow88 wrote:

EPS is north with the clipper like the Euro and squashes the 2nd wave way south



It seems like it always follows the op run
Personally, I would rather see the 1st wave fizzle out altogether. That might allow heights to rise ahead of wave2 and bring it up the coast.
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Post by dkodgis Mon Mar 06, 2017 4:13 pm

It looks like all three of these events will have strong boundaries and a bit of a shift will cause some of us little piggies to go wee wee wee all the way home with no snow. Winter waves at us and continues to rip our hearts out.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 06, 2017 5:49 pm

18z GFS suppression is the word looked at 12z Sun time stamp for past 5 runs and south, south south each run, better warn my friends in vero beach FL they are getting a blizzard LLOL, been fairly consistent its still far out but it would not surprise me to see the south cash in on a major blizzard and we get a rain shower.
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Post by rb924119 Mon Mar 06, 2017 6:24 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:18z GFS suppression is the word looked at 12z Sun time stamp for past 5 runs and south, south south each run, better warn my friends in vero beach FL they are getting a blizzard LLOL, been fairly consistent its still far out but it would not surprise me to see the south cash in on a major blizzard and we get a rain shower.

First of all, it's an off-hour run. Secondly, and I say this with love, STEP AWAY FROM THE MODELS lmao windshield wipers, Jman haha we need blinders right now lmao

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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Mar 06, 2017 7:33 pm

Their is no definite solution we are far from it.
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Post by Armando Salvadore Mon Mar 06, 2017 10:02 pm

Last 3 runs of the EPS. Notice the trend? Same goes for the 18z GEFS when you look at the past 10-12 runs. We need that TPV Split, with the one lobe over BC to either phase into the main TPV, or push offshore to allow a downstream "bump" just enough. This is no where near set in stone and several things can happen to the point of avoiding suppression.

Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event - Page 2 Screen11
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Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Mar 06, 2017 10:25 pm

So quiet isn't nam coming out now?
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Post by Math23x7 Mon Mar 06, 2017 10:44 pm

@weatherwatchermom wrote:So quiet isn't nam coming out now?

NAM currently goes out to Friday morning. Looks somewhat decent, though the fact that it is a narrow band over us means I'm not safe to call snow yet.

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Post by GreyBeard Mon Mar 06, 2017 11:38 pm

Lee goldberg just said he likes Friday's chance for snow more than Sunday's. Said Sunday's storm looks to be suppressed south FWIW.His outlook showed Friday temps in the 40's so snow to rain.Nick Gregory also said he didn't think Sunday's storm would make it into our area.Lonnie was playing it safe and just said he had to keep an eye on it.The most bullish forecast was Mr. G who said there might be an"event"for Sunday.Only one I missed was Janice Huff on channel 4, but she's never right anyway. It's still early but they all have it on their radar, pun intended. Smile

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 06, 2017 11:53 pm

Wow 00z pushed the foot plus into central NC, isn't it supposed to be in the 60's there regularly by noiw? That will lead to utter chaos. I know things can change but like I said before this continues to nose dive south each run of GFS, and I do not think FL is out of the woods here for a epic snow for them (totally kidding, but who knows).
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 06, 2017 11:56 pm

CMC has a massive storm next wed off shore...
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Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Mar 07, 2017 2:57 am

@Math23x7 wrote:
@weatherwatchermom wrote:So quiet isn't nam coming out now?

NAM currently goes out to Friday morning.  Looks somewhat decent, though the fact that it is a narrow band over us means I'm not safe to call snow yet.
tx math..I forgot the nqam does not go out that far..
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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Mar 07, 2017 5:02 am

First storm looks good atm NYC on south.
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Post by jake732 Tue Mar 07, 2017 7:45 am

I know this should really be in banter. But I'm pissed to the hills and fed up. We had such great potential for Sunday's storm and screw it and it goes south. Come freikin on, just shift north!! Nothing, absolutely nothing can go our way this winter. Here where I live we prob had a total of 10 inches this entire winter. Next year I will not be following any damn store till 3 days in
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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Mar 07, 2017 8:05 am

Wave 3 may be the big dog next tuesday
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Mar 07, 2017 8:09 am

@jake732 wrote:I know this should really be in banter. But I'm pissed to the hills and fed up. We had such great potential for Sunday's storm and screw it and it goes south. Come freikin on, just shift north!! Nothing, absolutely nothing can go our way this winter. Here where I live we prob had a total of 10 inches this entire winter. Next year I will not be following any damn store till 3 days in

The potential was there but not sure I would coin it as great. The Pacific is a mess.

Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event - Page 2 Gfs_z500_vort_namer_23

Look how the northern and southern branches remain un-phased. No ridge in the west to amplify a trough over the east. There is still time for changes to happen, because I still think it's pretty close. We'll have to see.

I increased the SCL to 50% for Friday's event. I think we're in line for at least 1" of snow. We should know much more by this time tomorrow.

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Mar 07, 2017 8:44 am

NAM PARA for Wave 1 on Friday

Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event - Page 2 58be965a79480.thumb.png.7763cbe38798a3137d13f1cd8cd9d825

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Mar 07, 2017 9:04 am

06z GFS Wave 1

Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event - Page 2 Sn10_acc.us_ne

JMA Wave 1

Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event - Page 2 P1_GZ_D5_PN_084_0000.thumb.gif.36919ce529e62d73e2aeea7624a6b8cb

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Mar 07, 2017 9:19 am

So frank sc is really go see 6 to 12 plus?! Isn't tgst pretty unhear of.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Mar 07, 2017 9:25 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:NAM PARA for Wave 1 on Friday

Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event - Page 2 58be965a79480.thumb.png.7763cbe38798a3137d13f1cd8cd9d825

Looks good but my concern it looks to fall during daytime.
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Post by Guest Tue Mar 07, 2017 9:31 am

Jman no shot of a Mothrazilla south of the Virginia/NC border except for the mountains. Rain for the rest

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Post by Snow88 Tue Mar 07, 2017 9:44 am

Nam is coming in further north and amped with wave 1
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