Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Wave 2 looks really south

Plenty of time

Wave 3 coming

EURO wave 2

SoulSingMG wrote:Everyone in DC is rejoicing on Twitter from that last GFS run lol

I know I'm not hung up on any one run its just nail biting to see euro now so far south and gfs. Plenty of time to change but I guess suppression is a option.

I am a bit skeptical about Wave 1, not from a "what will fall from the sky" perspective but about actual impact at the surface. A mid-March snow, during daylight hours, with ground temps at or above freezing and no particularly "heavy" snow projected makes me think that whether it is a rain/snow mix or even mostly snow, it won't stick much on any paved surfaces which probably stay just wet. Now, wave 2 should be colder and the precipitation heavier and the storm may be deep enough to drag cold air in behind it. So I could see that storm featuring some accumulation even on roadways. Of course if the cold air entrenches far enough south -- then you may have suppression issues. Wave 3 is at night and cold. If we get snow from it, it should stick. Just my preliminary thoughts.

EPS is north with the clipper like the Euro and squashes the 2nd wave way south



It seems like it always follows the op run

Snow88 wrote:

EPS is north with the clipper like the Euro and squashes the 2nd wave way south



It seems like it always follows the op run

Personally, I would rather see the 1st wave fizzle out altogether. That might allow heights to rise ahead of wave2 and bring it up the coast.

18z GFS suppression is the word looked at 12z Sun time stamp for past 5 runs and south, south south each run, better warn my friends in vero beach FL they are getting a blizzard LLOL, been fairly consistent its still far out but it would not surprise me to see the south cash in on a major blizzard and we get a rain shower.

Their is no definite solution we are far from it.

Last 3 runs of the EPS. Notice the trend? Same goes for the 18z GEFS when you look at the past 10-12 runs. We need that TPV Split, with the one lobe over BC to either phase into the main TPV, or push offshore to allow a downstream "bump" just enough. This is no where near set in stone and several things can happen to the point of avoiding suppression.

weatherwatchermom wrote:So quiet isn't nam coming out now?

NAM currently goes out to Friday morning. Looks somewhat decent, though the fact that it is a narrow band over us means I'm not safe to call snow yet.

Lee goldberg just said he likes Friday's chance for snow more than Sunday's. Said Sunday's storm looks to be suppressed south FWIW.His outlook showed Friday temps in the 40's so snow to rain.Nick Gregory also said he didn't think Sunday's storm would make it into our area.Lonnie was playing it safe and just said he had to keep an eye on it.The most bullish forecast was Mr. G who said there might be an"event"for Sunday.Only one I missed was Janice Huff on channel 4, but she's never right anyway. It's still early but they all have it on their radar, pun intended.

Wow 00z pushed the foot plus into central NC, isn't it supposed to be in the 60's there regularly by noiw? That will lead to utter chaos. I know things can change but like I said before this continues to nose dive south each run of GFS, and I do not think FL is out of the woods here for a epic snow for them (totally kidding, but who knows).

CMC has a massive storm next wed off shore...

First storm looks good atm NYC on south.

I know this should really be in banter. But I'm pissed to the hills and fed up. We had such great potential for Sunday's storm and screw it and it goes south. Come freikin on, just shift north!! Nothing, absolutely nothing can go our way this winter. Here where I live we prob had a total of 10 inches this entire winter. Next year I will not be following any damn store till 3 days in

Wave 3 may be the big dog next tuesday

jake732 wrote:I know this should really be in banter. But I'm pissed to the hills and fed up. We had such great potential for Sunday's storm and screw it and it goes south. Come freikin on, just shift north!! Nothing, absolutely nothing can go our way this winter. Here where I live we prob had a total of 10 inches this entire winter. Next year I will not be following any damn store till 3 days in

The potential was there but not sure I would coin it as great. The Pacific is a mess.



Look how the northern and southern branches remain un-phased. No ridge in the west to amplify a trough over the east. There is still time for changes to happen, because I still think it's pretty close. We'll have to see.

I increased the SCL to 50% for Friday's event. I think we're in line for at least 1" of snow. We should know much more by this time tomorrow.

NAM PARA for Wave 1 on Friday

06z GFS Wave 1



JMA Wave 1

So frank sc is really go see 6 to 12 plus?! Isn't tgst pretty unhear of.

Frank_Wx wrote:NAM PARA for Wave 1 on Friday

Looks good but my concern it looks to fall during daytime.

Jman no shot of a Mothrazilla south of the Virginia/NC border except for the mountains. Rain for the rest

Nam is coming in further north and amped with wave 1