Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

Jman no shot of a Mothrazilla south of the Virginia/NC border except for the mountains. Rain for the rest

Nam is coming in further north and amped with wave 1

12z Nam

Isotherm in regards to wave 1

"Wave 1 has good potential. Enhanced baroclinicity via increased thermal gradient at this time of year will yield more divergence aloft. The frontogenesis potential is fairly robust. This is the type of system which could correct stronger as t=0 approaches. "

I think the 2nd wave also trends north

The AO is just negative
The NAO is going to be neutral or just positive
The PNA is rising

If wave 1 trends further north, the 2nd wave willl most likely also.

Okay I have been OTC here BUT have been following - teh trend this winter with storms - go south only to come back in a nW trend within 48 hours - this sia pattern trend as the Northern Jet interacts with these waves.

NAMS leads the way here again IMO.

Wave 3 could be a beast if it sets up right.

Blocking going to rule - why? No sun activity!!! Direct correlation

GFS trends north with wave 1

GFS BABY!!!!!!!!!!!!

READ ME MIND - NORTH I SHALL BE!!

PNA and PV look a lot better than the past runs even though the surface is way south

Baby steps

Snow88 wrote:PNA and PV look a lot better than the past runs even though the surface is way south

Baby steps

I noticed that too. I thought we were going to see a shift north this run. Thankfully we still have time for improvements to occur aloft.

I still see "stickage" issues with Wave 1 during the daytime with a warm ground and temps above freezing. That's why I'm hoping Wave 2 and/or 3 come to fruition with lower temperatures and better timing (in terms of daylight or nighttime).

CMC loses the Sunday storm and instead consolidates the Tuesday wave with the Sunday wave into a nor'easter. Verbatim it's snow to rain as it hugs the coast what we can work out the details later good to see an amplified system happening early next week

CMC is also for the north with the first wave last night's run had no snow here today a general one to three inches.
What's interesting about the Friday system is that it looks to happen late Thursday night and early Friday morning so Sun angle shouldn't be too much of a concern

Verbatim the CMC is 8 - 12 plus inches for the second wave which now happens Monday and Tuesday with the change the rain along the coast and into the city

algae888 wrote:CMC loses the Sunday storm and instead consolidates the Tuesday wave with the Sunday wave into a nor'easter. Verbatim it's snow to rain as it hugs the coast what we can work out the details later good to see an amplified system happening early next week

That sometimes happens when you deal with multiple waves. Another plausible outcome to keep in mind.

UKIE looks like it's going to be a major hit for Friday. Looks a little slower than the other models butt bombs it out as it hits the coast and moves Northeast. It also suppresses the Sunday wave to the Florida Panhandle however with the isobars pointing due north so maybe it has a chance to come up the coast on Tuesday as the CMC shows still plenty of time to sort that one out Friday's looks to be gaining strength

algae888 wrote:CMC is also for the north with the first wave last night's run had no snow here today a general one to three inches.
What's interesting about the Friday system is that it looks to happen late Thursday night and early Friday morning so Sun angle shouldn't be too much of a concern

Big time in timing!!

BAJOINGEESS GEFS FOR FRIDAY HOLY POOP!!!

algae888 wrote:UKIE looks like it's going to be a major hit for Friday. Looks a little slower than the other models butt bombs it out as it hits the coast and moves Northeast. It also suppresses the Sunday wave to the Florida Panhandle however with the isobars pointing due north so maybe it has a chance to come up the coast on Tuesday as the CMC shows still plenty of time to sort that one out Friday's looks to be gaining strength

From what I'm hearing at the other board it does. Comes up the coast as it merges with wave 3. I don't have access to any UKIE maps, but they are saying the UKIE has an ominous look to it. I'm sure Frank will be updating us later with this new development.

The Euro took a step towards the GFS and the other guidance for Friday system looks like 2 to 4 inches area-wide

EURO for wave 1 is stronger/further north. Looks like the GFS.

So much run to run model to model inconsistency beyond wave 1 its not even funny.  Do not take any one soln as gospel as there is still way to much inconsistency.  Wave 1 "maybe" just started to show some consistency amongst models today.  We will have to wait until 12z tomorrow before we have true consistency for wave 1, but the trends today were def positive.  Beyond that just keep watching.  It is def possible that what we are looking at as wave 2 may combine with the 3d wave leading to one big storm for early next week like the CMC showed, or it may be that it remains a weak wave that gets shunted way south setting us up for a more pronounced wave 3.   The Atlantic is turning into a log jam with the NAO and all this energy.


Remember the energy that is wave 1 is not even on shore yet (by tomorrows 00z suites), let alone wave 2 or wave 3.  The energy that is causing the wave break that has been advertized and is currently giving us our rain showers is only now happening.  Look at the image below.  The storm system that is giving us this rain involves almost all of N America including parts of South America.  The moisture fetch reaches all the way down to the Eastern Trop Pac, the GOM and the Atlantic.  With this system in the process of changing the atmosphere on many levels as we speak the model data is going to be changing rapidly.   Again little to zero consistency beyond Wave 1 at this time.  

nutleyblizzard wrote:EURO for wave 1 is stronger/further north. Looks like the GFS.

GFS rules Northern Stream waves - and I said it will make a north trend today as teh EURO caves to this idea - a possible another 25-50 mile bump north I think is in play to teh final solution

amugs wrote:

nutleyblizzard wrote:EURO for wave 1 is stronger/further north. Looks like the GFS.

GFS rules Northern Stream waves - and I said it will make a north trend today as teh EURO caves to this idea - a possible another 25-50 mile bump north I think is in play to teh final solution

GFS rules nothing MUGS...lol Last Fridays clipper was all GFS showing a nice 1-3/2-4" until it finally caved to the euros idea of south and Nada. Euro on occasion had a few runs showing some precip into the area, but overall it destroyed the GFS. We need another day to call anything a true trend. After all we still have too much time. With these systems where a trend of 25miles means the diff between a few inches to nada last minute trends with in 12-24hrs is still very much in play. Esp with the energy still in the Pac.

sroc4 wrote:

amugs wrote:

nutleyblizzard wrote:EURO for wave 1 is stronger/further north. Looks like the GFS.

GFS rules Northern Stream waves - and I said it will make a north trend today as teh EURO caves to this idea - a possible another 25-50 mile bump north I think is in play to teh final solution

GFS rules nothing MUGS...lol  Last Fridays clipper was all GFS showing a nice 1-3/2-4" until it finally caved to the euros idea of south and Nada.  Euro on occasion had a few runs showing some precip into the area, but overall it destroyed the GFS.  We need another day to call anything a true trend.  After all we still have too much time.  With these systems where a trend of 25miles means the diff between a few inches to nada last minute trends with in 12-24hrs is still very much in play.  Esp with the energy still in the Pac.  

Over the last three years the EURO has not done well with Northern Waves - that is my point here - GFS verification is so much better with these types of storms. EURO is better with Southern Waves.

15Z SREFS have backed off Wave 1...