Re: BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th

by **jmanley32** Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:01 am

track17 wrote:So what jman are we discounting the other models now and going with that?

nowhere do I see where I said that nothing is off table as sroc said do not panic still in wiper mode go see fluxes till at least tomorrow. Who knows this could end up b a total nowcast.

by **skinsfan1177** Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:01 am

amugs wrote:
Grselig wrote:But is the regular NAM wrong?
I think so it rides the convection and frontAl boundary layer. Para NAM has been golden this winter. Mush better res and nwere algorithms to boot. Old Nam should be retired IMO.
Is it possible not going to to ally discount but it's on its own and is fighting with its newer sibling.
This is not modeling favoring just seeing this dynamic set up.

Exactly amugs the para was correcting itself and is one step away from a big hit.

by track17 Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:02 am

It is not a trend rjb your wrong actually all the runs other then the nam improved for the coast

by **jmanley32** Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:04 am

Why are people saying we are discount other models no one said that chill guts mugs may b right but also euro is all snow gfs is get better nam is worst I would not b too concerned yet but do keep some possibility of a changeover. Pro meta are lean away from tgat so that's music to my ears.

by **mikeypizano** Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:04 am

Wow that nam isn't even the whole storm either right?

by **amugs** Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:04 am

sroc4 wrote:
crippo84 wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:Many others discounting the nam and saying para nam is right for what its worth.

Sounds like a bit of wishcasting no?

This isnt wish casting until it has support from other models. As of now 12K NAM is on its own with that soln. Beware the windsheild wipers. No one panic

ABSOLUTELY. PLEASE PEEPS.
THIS ISN'T A TREND AT ALL. AT THIS POINT. IF 12Z SUITE COMES IN WITH SUCH THEN YES.

by **RJB8525** Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:05 am

either way i hope the shores etc are preparing..watching TWC they are saying the coastal damage could be huge

don't get me wrong we all will be blasted lol

by **jmanley32** Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:05 am

track17 wrote:It is not a trend rjb your wrong actually all the runs other then the nam improved for the coast

best most positive post from u track Wink

by **jmanley32** Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:07 am

RJB8525 wrote:either way i hope the shores etc are preparing..watching TWC they are saying the coastal damage could be huge

don't get me wrong we all will be blasted lol

anywhere from.coastal nj and inland maybe 25 miles to nyc to ct my have quite severe winds. Ocean will b ripping.

by track17 Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:08 am

Well it is the truth jman other then the nam the gfs even had me at the jersey shore at like 10 huge improvement so I don't think one model is a trend lol.

by **RJB8525** Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:12 am

jmanley32 wrote:
RJB8525 wrote:either way i hope the shores etc are preparing..watching TWC they are saying the coastal damage could be huge

don't get me wrong we all will be blasted lol
anywhere from.coastal nj and inland maybe 25 miles to nyc to ct my have quite severe winds. Ocean will b ripping.

what i'm most interested in at this point is to see how early NWS puts out watches and warnings

by **sroc4** Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:14 am

I suggest we all stay away from the board if we are going to live and die by individual runs today. As I mentioned earlier late trends are possible since the main energy in the arctic and the Pac energy isnt onshore until late tonight. A trend is not a trend until multiple models show the same thing for multiple runs. We CANNOT discount what the 12K NAM showed right now, but should not be bickering about it.

If the Pac/southern energy is too strong and or phases with the N energy it raises heights too quick and becomes a coastal hugger. This is entirely plausable. Our very own Ray/Rb has been quitely alluding to this possibility for some time. Just because we may not like it doesnt mean we should ignore it. That said I personally dow not buy this soln at this time.

Patience is a virtue. I think it was Nutz or Soul but one of them said the tension for each model today will be ratcheted up more and more, so every one chill

by **jmanley32** Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:16 am

RJB8525 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
RJB8525 wrote:either way i hope the shores etc are preparing..watching TWC they are saying the coastal damage could be huge

don't get me wrong we all will be blasted lol
anywhere from.coastal nj and inland maybe 25 miles to nyc to ct my have quite severe winds. Ocean will b ripping.

what i'm most interested in at this point is to see how early NWS puts out watches and warnings

I don't expect b4 tomorrow. My guess is blizzard watches and either WA or hww.

by **frank 638** Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:16 am

I know things are changeing with our snow amounts and its early to see if we will get 1 to 2 ft + of snow but I can imagine our snow drifts will be so high because of the winds we can probably see 3 ft or more of snow drifts if I am wrong just like the last year blizzard and so on

by **skinsfan1177** Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:17 am

The wobbles are going to happen everyone sit tight this has a chance to make history.

by **jimv45** Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:18 am

I will sign for the Nam right now for my area!! But its one model run and no need to panic for others what to see trends into Sunday morning!

by **jmanley32** Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:19 am

In the end sroc what happens happens and there ain't nothing we can do about it. Serenity prayer. Of course we all hope for the same thing.

by **Taffy** Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:20 am

230 people online now.....with days to go. Wow

by **RJB8525** Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:21 am

jmanley32 wrote:
RJB8525 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
RJB8525 wrote:either way i hope the shores etc are preparing..watching TWC they are saying the coastal damage could be huge

don't get me wrong we all will be blasted lol
anywhere from.coastal nj and inland maybe 25 miles to nyc to ct my have quite severe winds. Ocean will b ripping.

what i'm most interested in at this point is to see how early NWS puts out watches and warnings
I don't expect b4 tomorrow. My guess is blizzard watches and either WA or hww.

i'd bet a buck those people up north get one before us lol

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:22 am

rb924119 wrote:10:1

We might see bare ground by July if this verifies!! That's easily over 3' with ratios

This is a great run for the interior but am I buying? No.

So many runs yet to go so take them all with a grain of salt. Everyone does remember the Euro showed 40 inches on Cape Cod yesterday and this morningss run showed 6 inches on Cape Cod. If the people on Cape Cod are taking this to seriously they all hung themselves this morning.

You'll drive yourself nuts looking at each model and each run of every model. I said it last night and I reiterate today. I for one am taking the day off and won't be around until tonight 0Z's. I need to for my own sanity, I think many others here need to also.

by **jimv45** Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:22 am

yea Taffy its big!! This might be out last chance this winter and to see this storm of what it could be is exciting.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:22 am

New thread.

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