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BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Mar 10, 2017 8:29 am

@nutleyblizzard wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:UKIE and EURO are the best models inside 120 hours and they both show a Roidzilla at the moment. So...

BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th - Page 4 Cor_day5_HGT_P500_G2NHX.thumb.png.f198e02a5d9f155511bf993b84041e39
While still a possible scenario, I think the GFS is too far west and will correct east in time. EURO is a little to far east for my liking. Rooting hard for a UKMET track!!!

I can only see whats available on TT for free, but if Euro holds intensity and is a bit more west the 850mb windfield that is over eastern areas of 64-80+kts will be over the area and that would just wreak havoc.

Lets say we took rb rule of thumb of 45-55% of that as 850s do not all mix down so on the low end that would be about 35-40 sustained and gusts I think frank likes to use rule of about 15 mph higher so 55mph, and thats low end, sheesh. tak that with coupious snow and we have got heaven, lets hope it all pulls together now, even if we did get some mixing on coast would still be a sizable storm and def intense.
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Post by Math23x7 Fri Mar 10, 2017 9:04 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:UKIE and EURO are the best models inside 120 hours and they both show a Roidzilla at the moment. So...

BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th - Page 4 Cor_day5_HGT_P500_G2NHX.thumb.png.f198e02a5d9f155511bf993b84041e39

Don't you remember *cough* Juno *cough*?

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Mar 10, 2017 9:28 am

@Math23x7 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:UKIE and EURO are the best models inside 120 hours and they both show a Roidzilla at the moment. So...

BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th - Page 4 Cor_day5_HGT_P500_G2NHX.thumb.png.f198e02a5d9f155511bf993b84041e39

Don't you remember *cough* Juno *cough*?

But this has a STJ component to it Wink

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Post by Radz Fri Mar 10, 2017 9:28 am

@Math23x7 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:UKIE and EURO are the best models inside 120 hours and they both show a Roidzilla at the moment. So...

BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th - Page 4 Cor_day5_HGT_P500_G2NHX.thumb.png.f198e02a5d9f155511bf993b84041e39

Don't you remember *cough* Juno *cough*?

That's a four letter word we shouldn't use Shocked
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Post by SENJsnowman Fri Mar 10, 2017 9:33 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@SENJsnowman wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@nutleyblizzard wrote:EPS is downright impressive. Some the indies get down to the 960's. Once today's event gets out of the way, we will start to get a consensus  with track. Sunday's 12z runs should tell the tale. My gut tells me this takes a track just inside the benchmark.

That's a fair assessment at this point Nutz.  Looking at the image I posted above the EPS mean is literally on the BM.  

OK, I did my homework, and now I know exactly what the BM is and what is means generally speaking. Where would I want the track realtive to the BM to get max snowfall and no rain for the Jersey Shore? I figure that the dynamics of each storm make a difference, but typically...on it? Just west? Just east?


For yuo a track on or just SE of the BM is usually ideal.

Thank you!

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Post by amugs Fri Mar 10, 2017 9:35 am

@Math23x7 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:UKIE and EURO are the best models inside 120 hours and they both show a Roidzilla at the moment. So...

BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th - Page 4 Cor_day5_HGT_P500_G2NHX.thumb.png.f198e02a5d9f155511bf993b84041e39

Don't you remember *cough* Juno *cough*?

THANKS MATH, TYPICAL - this is not nearly the same set up kid so stop the Negative Juju please or else............. Evil or Very Mad
Muhahahahaha!

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Mar 10, 2017 9:45 am

@amugs wrote:
@Math23x7 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:UKIE and EURO are the best models inside 120 hours and they both show a Roidzilla at the moment. So...

BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th - Page 4 Cor_day5_HGT_P500_G2NHX.thumb.png.f198e02a5d9f155511bf993b84041e39

Don't you remember *cough* Juno *cough*?

THANKS MATH, TYPICAL - this is not nearly the same set up kid so stop the Negative Juju please or else............. Evil or Very Mad
Muhahahahaha!

One more negative post and he will be recharged for old crimes. Not sure if we can do that, I'll have to check with Billg.
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Post by amugs Fri Mar 10, 2017 9:47 am

WOW what a sick bunch of runs last night - GFS wonky 0z correcting at 6z - STJ and all the latent heat iot will bring will cause these models to jump 50 miles one way or the other. We are in a great spot I firmly believe at this juncture.

SNow maps will be showing crazy amounts - maybe for some a solid 50% of ones season total or more but keep things tempered.
We all want a HECS to BECS just have to let it come to us know.
Don't Freak out over some the next two/three days runs - H5 set up is there.

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Post by amugs Fri Mar 10, 2017 9:48 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@amugs wrote:
@Math23x7 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:UKIE and EURO are the best models inside 120 hours and they both show a Roidzilla at the moment. So...

BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th - Page 4 Cor_day5_HGT_P500_G2NHX.thumb.png.f198e02a5d9f155511bf993b84041e39

Don't you remember *cough* Juno *cough*?

THANKS MATH, TYPICAL - this is not nearly the same set up kid so stop the Negative Juju please or else............. Evil or Very Mad
Muhahahahaha!

One more negative post and he will be recharged for old crimes. Not sure if we can do that, I'll have to check with Billg.

CP ready to whoop some arse - LOVE IT OTI BROTHER! Solitary for him if he stays this course!

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Mar 10, 2017 9:49 am

@amugs wrote:WOW what a sick bunch of runs last night - GFS wonky 0z correcting at 6z - STJ and all the latent heat iot will bring will cause these models to jump 50 miles one way or the other. We are in a great spot I firmly believe at this juncture.

SNow maps will be showing crazy amounts - maybe for some a solid 50% of ones season total or more but keep things tempered.
We all want a HECS to BECS just have to let it come to us know.
Don't Freak out over some the next two/three days runs - H5 set up is there.

Keep things tempered? Well if this isn't the pot calling the kettle black I don't know what is Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy
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Post by rb924119 Fri Mar 10, 2017 9:53 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@amugs wrote:WOW what a sick bunch of runs last night - GFS wonky 0z correcting at 6z - STJ and all the latent heat iot will bring will cause these models to jump 50 miles one way or the other. We are in a great spot I firmly believe at this juncture.

SNow maps will be showing crazy amounts - maybe for some a solid 50% of ones season total or more but keep things tempered.
We all want a HECS to BECS just have to let it come to us know.
Don't Freak out over some the next two/three days runs - H5 set up is there.

Keep things tempered? Well if this isn't the pot calling the kettle black I don't know what is Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy

You beat me to it, Cp ahahahaha I was about to make a smart remark to the effect of "Next model run of insanity-'HERE WE GO PEEPS BECS ALMOST IMMINENT JUST ANOTHER 36 HOURS AND ITS A LOCK!!!'" Love the enthusiasm, mugsy!

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Post by sroc4 Fri Mar 10, 2017 9:55 am

NAM extrapolated would be sweet!

BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th - Page 4 500hv.conus

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Post by SNOW MAN Fri Mar 10, 2017 9:55 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@amugs wrote:WOW what a sick bunch of runs last night - GFS wonky 0z correcting at 6z - STJ and all the latent heat iot will bring will cause these models to jump 50 miles one way or the other. We are in a great spot I firmly believe at this juncture.

SNow maps will be showing crazy amounts - maybe for some a solid 50% of ones season total or more but keep things tempered.
We all want a HECS to BECS just have to let it come to us know.
Don't Freak out over some the next two/three days runs - H5 set up is there.

Keep things tempered? Well if this isn't the pot calling the kettle black I don't know what is Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy

Cp, you took the words right out of my mouth. I can't keep my mind off of Tuesday. What a Face
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Post by RJB8525 Fri Mar 10, 2017 10:03 am

we have a very long weekend ahead of us....also don't forget with the models...we lose an hour this weekend with daylight savings time Mad Mad
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Mar 10, 2017 10:05 am

@sroc4 wrote:NAM extrapolated would be sweet!

BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th - Page 4 500hv.conus
just a season ago we hated the Nam now we like it quite a bit. Did they make upgrades? I concur math needs to stop the neg or cp go at it. Mugs our hype man lol temper ourselves? Can u fo so? No...neither can we ; )
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Post by SNOW MAN Fri Mar 10, 2017 10:06 am

Rj is it sticking to the roads in your area ?
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Mar 10, 2017 10:07 am

I decided. I am marrying the NAM. Will propose tonight. Wish me well.

BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th - Page 4 58c2bc522bf74







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Post by Guest Fri Mar 10, 2017 10:08 am

GOOD SIGN HERE!!

The NWS which as we all know is VERY conservative up until the last possible second when it comes to snow, has some VERY aggressive wording in their LR Disco. Already they have us on LI with a 70% chance of snow Monday night thru Tuesday night, as well as bumping up the expected QPF. from 1: yesterday to over 1.5" this morning. VERY unusual and early for them.

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Post by jake732 Fri Mar 10, 2017 10:08 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:I decided. I am marrying the NAM. Will propose tonight. Wish me well.

BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th - Page 4 58c2bc522bf74


i wouldnt marry the NAM if she lived 86 hours away... geek






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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Mar 10, 2017 10:09 am

@RJB8525 wrote:we have a very long weekend ahead of us....also don't forget with the models...we lose an hour this weekend with daylight savings time Mad Mad

This is going to be the end of me.

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Mar 10, 2017 10:10 am

The STJ on the NAM is sick. Surely this run would have produced.

BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th - Page 4 58c2bcb2d6871

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Post by sroc4 Fri Mar 10, 2017 10:10 am

@jmanley32 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:NAM extrapolated would be sweet!

BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th - Page 4 500hv.conus
just a season ago we hated the Nam now we like it quite a bit. Did they make upgrades? I concur math needs to stop the neg or cp go at it. Mugs our hype man lol temper ourselves? Can u fo so? No...neither can we ; )

Some hated the NAM more than others. NAM has its place...esp with strong powerful storms.

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Post by billg315 Fri Mar 10, 2017 10:13 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:I decided. I am marrying the NAM. Will propose tonight. Wish me well.

BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th - Page 4 58c2bc522bf74







I want to be the Best Man so at the reception I can give the funny but awkward speech about how when Frank first met the NAM he wasn't that impressed and called her "Not A Model" but then gradually realized she was his true love.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Mar 10, 2017 10:16 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:I decided. I am marrying the NAM. Will propose tonight. Wish me well.

BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th - Page 4 58c2bc522bf74







Well she is beautiful, if she can cook too you're gold.
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Post by dkodgis Fri Mar 10, 2017 10:21 am

Can I get a MADONNE. Please. Otherwise I worry the storm isn't there.
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