March 14th Godzilla Discussion Part 2

EPS is west of the OP peeps RED FLAG there to OP - may have a few skewing the means - a bit east then last night 0z run by about 35 miles

0z


12Z

So I get 27 from nam and 5 from euro a little more than 60 hours from start time. Sounds about right.

track17 wrote:Omg I love that map it is great 8-9 for the coast. Keep this trend going

That trend keeps up you will have no snow and neither will most of the rest of us other than the twin forks Long Island

Srefs huge hit wow look at that dark purple on nj coast wow!

EURO leans left with EPS

There is a tight cluster inside, on and just a tick east by a hair of teh BM with 7 so OL by my quick eye here.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

track17 wrote:Omg I love that map it is great 8-9 for the coast. Keep this trend going

That trend keeps up you will have no snow and neither will most of the rest of us other than the twin forks  Long Island

CP, If these trends keep going you and I are going to have sunny skies and a balmy breeze and 70 degrees.

Mugs sref looks awesome any of thst rain for coast if not sign me now for 18 to 20.

amugs wrote:EURO leans left with EPS

the operational isnt right look at this nearly all are inside bm. Bet models start show more like sref which has done well this yr. Nam I funno what's go on with the soon to.b not a model again if it doesn't shape up for me anyways lol

Rb ur idea of this not balling up I think that ship has sailed. There's no model not showing a strong lp.

Mugs what's the lowest pressure on the EPS too small and overlapping to see.

amugs wrote:EURO leans left with EPS

That tick east def lowers QPF north and west, i liked the 00Z better

Everything to me looks good for eastern nj and LI only areas that see less qpf is western nj and eastern PA. But I believe euro will tick west later especially after seeing the means

skinsfan1177 wrote:Everything to me looks good for eastern nj and LI only areas that see less qpf is western nj and eastern PA. But I believe euro will tick west later especially after seeing the means

yep most of the EPS were west of the op. Snow map of mean? Or indies?

Actualy, if i was going to sell my soul to a model? I would take the GFS right now. I am in NNJ, I would take the nearly foot of snow. It really produces some awesome VV's Tues morning too!

RJB8525 wrote:

I have a Tecra 750DVD under my desk, NOAA just called to ask to use it to upgrade the Euro...

I follow him on twitter very good pro met

View image on Twitter
Follow
True Weather @true_weather
ECMWF-EPS mean is further west of operational run. Additionally, significant numbers of members west of mean. OP is WAY east. @EdValleeWx
2:31 PM - 11 Mar 2017
18 18 Retweets 19 19 likes

amugs wrote:I follow him on twitter very good pro met

Mugs, no picture ?

SNOW MAN wrote:

amugs wrote:I follow him on twitter very good pro met

Mugs, no picture ?

mugs image failed.

Here is a first call forecast from a friends page, he also has models up (all free except the Euro)

Taffy wrote:I was living in Red Sox Suck for the Blizzard of 78. If anyone here can recall that event; are we talking an epic storm like that? I'm trying to make a comparison. I've hear historical and other adjectives used. I haven't been a Girl Scout for years and I am hardly ever prepared! lol This is not an IMBY question, merely would like to compare.



*Wait....what just happened? I am a Red Sox fan and this will not hold!

Not even close to the Blizzard of 1978. Here in Deer Park 34 inches of snow with snow falling for 2 days and winds gusting to 70 mph creating huge snow drifts that covered my dads plymouth fury. I haven't seen a storm like that one since..

mikeypizano wrote:Here is a first call forecast from a friends page, he also has models up (all free except the Euro)

I disagree with C nj coast area with that map sorry and that's my opinion especially with the way things are going

Bernie Rayno on twitter feeling Euro is doing windshield and the OP is way to far west, EPS put out 15-17.5 for coast and a few spots higher. This is hilarious, I dunno how to embed actual twitter posts so heres link.

https://twitter.com/EdValleeWx/status/840279690476703747

jmanley32 wrote:Bernie Rayno on twitter feeling Euro is doing windshield and the OP is way to far west, EPS put out 15-17.5 for coast and a few spots higher.  This is hilarious, I dunno how to embed actual twitter posts so heres link.

https://twitter.com/EdValleeWx/status/840279690476703747

Too far west? I thought that the Euro op was so far east that most of the snow vanished.

YES!! WOW 2 days ahead blizzard watch just issued!!

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
338 PM EST Sat Mar 11 2017

...Potential for a Major Winter Storm Monday night into
Wednesday...

CTZ007>012-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-120900-
/O.NEW.KOKX.BZ.A.0001.170314T0400Z-170315T0400Z/
Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-
Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-
Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-
Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
338 PM EST Sat Mar 11 2017

...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Blizzard
Watch, which is in effect from late Monday night through Tuesday
evening.

* Locations...New York City, Long Island, Southern Westchester,
Southern Fairfield, Southern New Haven, Middlesex, and New
London counties.

* Hazard Types...Snow, and strong and gusty winds.

* Snow Accumulations...12 to 18 inches.

* Timing...Late Monday night through Tuesday evening.

* Impacts...Hazardous travel and potential for power outages due
to moderate to heavy snow and gusty winds.

* Winds...Northeast 20 to 30 mph with gusts 40 to 50 mph.

* Temperatures...In the upper 20s.

* Visibilities...One quarter mile or less at times.

EPS shifted 50 miles east with the axis of snow compared to 00z. Follows the Op, although by a little less distance.