Re: March 14th Godzilla Discussion Part 2

by **jmanley32** Sun Mar 12, 2017 8:26 am

Thinking sr models lead the way with euro being our ceiling and sr is near on or not far off from euro. Will rations b higher than 10 to 1 even in my area?

by **docstox12** Sun Mar 12, 2017 8:28 am

SNOW MAN wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
SNOW MAN wrote:Good morning Doc. I've been following the board all day. I keep trying to pull myself away, but it's like a tractor beam in Star Trek it just won't let me go. And to think I drained both of my snow blowers and put them away last week. I also took down the markers that mark my private road so I know where the edges are when I'm snow blowing. Today I took the snow blowers back out and wouldn't you know the models went sour. But it seems like things are looking up.
So tomorrow I'll be putting the markers back out. I just hope there tall enough to see after the snow stops. LOL !!!

I nominate SNOW MAN "Savior of the Winter of 2016-2017" for doing all these spring chores prematurely and single handedly changing the upper air patterns to be favorable for this huge snowstorm!!!!

Thank you Doc. Should I write an acceptance speech in case I win ?

LOL, or get out of town fast if this storm busts.

by **SNOW MAN** Sun Mar 12, 2017 8:32 am

docstox12 wrote:
SNOW MAN wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
SNOW MAN wrote:Good morning Doc. I've been following the board all day. I keep trying to pull myself away, but it's like a tractor beam in Star Trek it just won't let me go. And to think I drained both of my snow blowers and put them away last week. I also took down the markers that mark my private road so I know where the edges are when I'm snow blowing. Today I took the snow blowers back out and wouldn't you know the models went sour. But it seems like things are looking up.
So tomorrow I'll be putting the markers back out. I just hope there tall enough to see after the snow stops. LOL !!!

I nominate SNOW MAN "Savior of the Winter of 2016-2017" for doing all these spring chores prematurely and single handedly changing the upper air patterns to be favorable for this huge snowstorm!!!!

Thank you Doc. Should I write an acceptance speech in case I win ?

LOL, or get out of town fast if this storm busts.

YIKE'S !!! It will look like a scene from a Frankenstein movie. People will be coming to my door with shovels, clubs and chains. affraid

by **amugs** Sun Mar 12, 2017 8:38 am

algae888 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:6Z NAM is INSANE, and that's in a good way.

NNJ, HV NYC all get crushed. I don't have the snow map but it looks like a few in the areas just mentioned get close to 3 feet.

I wish it was Monday, just to take away any lingering doubts. I think it's time to step away for awhile. This is getting to good to be true.
here cp

all I know is MADONNE at last night's runs. now we continue to wait. amazed at how long a lead time models caught on to this. feels like I have been tracking this for weeks.

Zoo that little.deep purple dot is over our area LMAO!! NOT JIMMY OR SROC FIR A FN CHANGE!!

by **skinsfan1177** Sun Mar 12, 2017 8:39 am

Only thing bothering me is the storm is quicker than originally expected

by **RJB8525** Sun Mar 12, 2017 8:39 am

My breakdown is...

AccuWeather: 6-10"
NWS Mt.Holly 6-12 in bulletin but on map 13" and potential 19"
TWC: 3-5" Monday night, 8-12" Tuesday

Either way? bananadude

by Guest Sun Mar 12, 2017 8:43 am

My breakdown is...

Accuweather: 4-8"
NWS Binghamton: Briefing shows minimum 1", most likely 14", possible 20"
TWC: 1-3" Monday night, 4-8" Tuesday, 1-3" Wednesday

by **amugs** Sun Mar 12, 2017 8:45 am

algae888 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:6Z NAM is INSANE, and that's in a good way.

NNJ, HV NYC all get crushed. I don't have the snow map but it looks like a few in the areas just mentioned get close to 3 feet.

I wish it was Monday, just to take away any lingering doubts. I think it's time to step away for awhile. This is getting to good to be true.
here cp

all I know is MADONNE at last night's runs. now we continue to wait. amazed at how long a lead time models caught on to this. feels like I have been tracking this for weeks.

Zoo that little.deep purple dot is over our area LMAO!! NOT JIMMY OR SROC FIR A FN CHANGE!!

by **amugs** Sun Mar 12, 2017 8:47 am

HI RES NAM almost closes tjis puppy off just SE Of LI if that were to happen then watch out folks cause those snow maps increase consideravly and we would be definitely see in a roidzilla with Frankzilla potential.

by **oldtimer** Sun Mar 12, 2017 8:51 am

amugs wrote:HI RES NAM almost closes tjis puppy off just SE Of LI if that were to happen then watch out folks cause those snow maps increase consideravly and we would be definitely see in a roidzilla with Frankzilla potential.

by **billg315** Sun Mar 12, 2017 8:53 am

I do think the speed of the storm may inhibit some of the extreme accumulation totals (and remember my rule of thumb - we can call it "Bill's Rule of coastal storm speed": Storms coming up the coast always want to accelerate and usually move faster than originally modeled. I've seen many a 24-hour storm become a 12-14 hour storm). That said, even in a shorter duration event, with these rates you'll get well over a foot, maybe 18" (1983 blizzard moved fast, still dumped 21" on folks in a little over 12 hours). IF this thing COULD stall or slow down, I think over two feet is easily on the table.

by **SNOW MAN** Sun Mar 12, 2017 8:56 am

RJB8525 wrote:My breakdown is...

AccuWeather: 6-10"
NWS Mt.Holly 6-12 in bulletin but on map 13" and potential 19"
TWC: 3-5" Monday night, 8-12" Tuesday

Either way?

Rj your bananas aren't dancing. Sad

by **skinsfan1177** Sun Mar 12, 2017 8:57 am

amugs wrote:HI RES NAM almost closes tjis puppy off just SE Of LI if that were to happen then watch out folks cause those snow maps increase consideravly and we would be definitely see in a roidzilla with Frankzilla potential.

Right on mugs that's what we need to see today is if h5 closes off off the coast if so wow. It slows the beast down

by **mikeypizano** Sun Mar 12, 2017 8:57 am

MADDONE the stugots on this storm!!!!

by **RJB8525** Sun Mar 12, 2017 9:04 am

by **nutleyblizzard** Sun Mar 12, 2017 9:09 am

RJB8525 wrote:

THat map must of been updated. I could of sworn When I saw Amy Freeze this morning it was 6-12 region wide.

by Guest Sun Mar 12, 2017 9:11 am

While I'm sure under different circumstances, any of us would be thrilled with 12", I get the feeling that it would seem like a little bit of a disappointment to some for this particular storm.

by **skinsfan1177** Sun Mar 12, 2017 9:20 am

From Joe cioffi weather page March 14th Godzilla Discussion Part 2 - Page 23 Screen10

by **billg315** Sun Mar 12, 2017 9:21 am

Trust me, if I get 12-plus hours of wind-driven snow totaling a foot or maybe a foot and a a half, I will still be thrilled.

by **nutleyblizzard** Sun Mar 12, 2017 9:26 am

Per met in NE forum, 12z RAOBS in Canada finding higher heights than what EURO and GFS depicted last night. This new data could influence 12z model runs with more westward/slower motion of storm.

by **Snow88** Sun Mar 12, 2017 9:27 am

SREF are over 1.25QPF for the area

by **amugs** Sun Mar 12, 2017 9:27 am

SREFS!!!!!!!!

March 14th Godzilla Discussion Part 2 - Page 23 SREFNE24Precip09066

by **rb924119** Sun Mar 12, 2017 9:30 am

I will not be posting much today (thanks work -_-) but what I will add is I've seen the term "convective feedback" being used to "toss" particular models. However, up until last night, I did not really see any to write home about. HOWEVER, last night's 00 and 06z GFS runs are clearly suffering now, as evidenced by the appearance of a strong artifact vorticity maximum ahead of the main southern stream energy as it starts heading this way. This happens because the modeling is developing so much convection there that it creates a feedback in the model that then develops this artifact energy. That energy, then becomes the "forcing" that the surface low follows according to the model, when in reality, the main southern stream energy is the piece driving the show. Personally, I still see this trending further west to look more like what the NAM/SREF suites, the RGEM, and to some extent, the UK are showing. I think the GFS continues its woeful ways, the CMC finally picks up on it after a consistent westward trend through the last several runs, and the EURO hugs a bit closer. Just my opinion, and while not a true coastal hugger, I do think it will be closer than what most think.

by **SNOW MAN** Sun Mar 12, 2017 9:34 am

rb924119 wrote:I will not be posting much today (thanks work -_-) but what I will add is I've seen the term "convective feedback" being used to "toss" particular models. However, up until last night, I did not really see any to write home about. HOWEVER, last night's 00 and 06z GFS runs are clearly suffering now, as evidenced by the appearance of a strong artifact vorticity maximum ahead of the main southern stream energy as it starts heading this way. This happens because the modeling is developing so much convection there that it creates a feedback in the model that then develops this artifact energy. That energy, then becomes the "forcing" that the surface low follows according to the model, when in reality, the main southern stream energy is the piece driving the show. Personally, I still see this trending further west to look more like what the NAM/SREF suites, the RGEM, and to some extent, the UK are showing. I think the GFS continues its woeful ways, the CMC finally picks up on it after a consistent westward trend through the last several runs, and the EURO hugs a bit closer. Just my opinion, and while not a true coastal hugger, I do think it will be closer than what most think.

Rb will you be creating a snow map for this event ?

by **amugs** Sun Mar 12, 2017 9:36 am

nutleyblizzard wrote:Per met in NE forum, 12z RAOBS in Canada finding higher heights than what EURO and GFS depicted last night. This new data could influence 12z model runs with more westward/slower motion of storm.

Two fold here Nuts - Good slower storm longer duration of heavier bands
Bad - mix issues could/would impact NYC, lI and coastal NJ - NNJ, WNJ and LHV would be golden

by **rb924119** Sun Mar 12, 2017 9:41 am

Snow Man, unfortunately I can't guarantee I will because of my schedule :/ I will do my best though haha

by **nutleyblizzard** Sun Mar 12, 2017 9:45 am

amugs wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:Per met in NE forum, 12z RAOBS in Canada finding higher heights than what EURO and GFS depicted last night. This new data could influence 12z model runs with more westward/slower motion of storm.
Two fold here Nuts - Good slower storm longer duration of heavier bands
Bad - mix issues could/would impact NYC, lI and coastal NJ - NNJ, WNJ and LHV would be golden

He did mention that its more likely the models would show a slower storm and the EURO and GFS might respond with ticks westward to show a more general consensus of an inside the benchmark track.

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