March 14th Godzilla Discussion Part 2

The GEFS looks great, but the QPF is fairly low.

Speed of storm moving up the coast has accelerated. This cuts down on the amount of time it snows. That's why. Let's see what the EURO does coming up. Last run it showed 30 hours of snow

What's the deal with the GFS being so dry? At least its an outlier in that respect.

has anyone checked out joe cioffi first ear call snow map he has nyc all of longisland and most of jersey 1 foot plus of snow while angry ben has nyc northern long island and parts of jersey will get 1 to 2 ft of snow

Both are 12z GFS and 0Z EURO. This highlights Frank's point perfectly, and its a great point made. GFS has a later capture for 18z tuesday while the EURO captures and closes off about 6-10 hours earlier and east of the delmarva, thus you get two different SLP locations and this has big impacts. Many finer details to be worked out here!

One thing we do not lack in advance of this is a cold air mass. Just got in from a beer run. Holy moly, that wind is cold out there right now. Like early-January feel.

The difference at hr 72:

GFS




EURO

12z EURO becomes an eastern outlier lol. Can't make this stuff up. Rb and folks will NOT be happy to see this run.

I was wondering when we'd get to models showing the storm further EAST than some would like. Lol. *sigh*

Well. It's further east AND less amped. I'm not happy with the 12z suite at all.

It doesn't look bad at hr 72. What happened between 72 and 96?

TheAresian wrote:It doesn't look bad at hr 72. What happened between 72 and 96?

In short, we went from a potential HECS to a run where it's tough to find a foot for anyone...

Is this thing going to end up out to sea, or too far East so that it's just a NE special?

3 more model suites to go till track is locked in. I'm somewhat bummed but not overly so yet. Let's hope it gets better

Hopefully it's just the windshield wipers doing what they do and we'll correct back west next run.

Serioysly the euro now has a mothra?! Not go jump ship but u see we can't get too excited even with what we thpught was consistency. All are trending east now bernie said he did not like the two pieces so far apart why? Cuz up and out....

TheAresian wrote:Hopefully it's just the windshield wipers doing what they do and we'll correct back west next run.

besides often the real sr models have made surprises for us so maybe this is too complex for lr models and sr will do better plus we need the energy onshore that's fot sure. When will thst b again?

I cried to Bernie on Twitter; he escorted me away from the cliff's edge...

frank 638 wrote:has anyone checked out joe cioffi first ear call snow map he has nyc all of longisland and most of jersey 1 foot plus of snow while angry ben has nyc northern long island and parts of jersey will get 1 to 2 ft of snow

who is angry Ben I'd like see that map.

So we toss this run?

Soul couldn't read that. I'm mobile. Summarize please

Nice Math, I like Bernie and follow him too. That makes me feel better.

syosnow94 wrote:Soul couldn't read that. I'm mobile. Summarize please

Bernie: No question EURO has shifted further E due to a weaker S piece. Further E not quite as strong, but strong enuf.nice track for I95. no mixing

Me: @AccuRayno Yeah but it's a much weaker system on that run as well. I'd rather have a little mixing in NYC with stronger storm!

Bernie: @MrMathieuBlue . it's strong enuf and a very favorable track.

I found angry ben.me likey his map but who is he?

Can we post the maps ?

Jmanlu angry Ben is friends with Joe Cioffi, that's all I know for sure.

jmanley just go to joe cioffi facebook he does explain every thing abouth this storm .