March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis
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Re: March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis
amugs wrote:4-6" SNOWFALL RATES IN PINKS ON THIS LIKE i WAS SAYING INSANE!!!!!!!
Is that even physically possible? 4-6" per hour? That is like a summer thunderstorm but with snow. You probably couldn't even breathe if you were standing in it. Which I just might try. Once in a lifetime!
bobjohnsonforthehall- Posts : 311
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Re: March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis
RJB8525 wrote:The NAM has been staying consistent on this storm while others have flaked..
Toss it... no way its right with 38", must be feedback issues
mikeypizano- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis
I refer back to "Bill's Law of Coastal Storms" that I posted Saturday (and have referenced many times in the past): More often than not, unless there is some unusual atmospheric setup blocking the storm, these coastal storms want to accelerate and move more quickly than originally modeled. The 24-hour storm often becomes the 12-hour storm. I think the NAM solution of this thing racing up the coast is completely consistent with that experience. Therefore I am a bit skeptical of the higher-end snowfall totals. No question it is going to be heavy while its snowing, and 12 hours can do a lot of damage with 2-3" (or more) per hour rates. But I think the speed (and the potential for some sleet mixing at times in eastern NJ, immediate NYC area, LI) will suppress totals a bit. I think over a foot is a good bet for most areas. But I think areas that get 2 feet will be very isolated, and probably to my northwest.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis
I declare today to be "Jersey Shore SnowLover Freak-Out Day". Tomorrow WILL BE a day to remember...either to rejoice or to mourn.
SENJsnowman- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis
Jeff's excited...
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis
Senj so true like the nam para was great and nam 4k but regular nam not which is better?
track17- Posts : 454
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Re: March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis
Central LI looks to be the dividing line
Lets get another shift east
Lets get another shift east
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis
deadrabbit79 wrote:SoulSingMG wrote:Frank_Wx wrote:Wow.....
Ummm is that a TWO and an EIGHT over me in Westchester?!
I THINK IT IS!!! I'm not sure if i'm excited or afraid!
Geez guys most of you in NYC, LI and NNJ saw a 27-34 inch storm last January. How quickly we forget.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis
Frank Im confused my these Kuchero maps. I thought we weren't using them? The regular NAM maps show a lot more snow on Long Island.CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:deadrabbit79 wrote:SoulSingMG wrote:Frank_Wx wrote:Wow.....
Ummm is that a TWO and an EIGHT over me in Westchester?!
I THINK IT IS!!! I'm not sure if i'm excited or afraid!
Geez guys most of you in NYC, LI and NNJ saw a 27-34 inch storm last January. How quickly we forget.
mmanisca- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis
mmanisca wrote:Frank Im confused my these Kuchero maps. I thought we weren't using them? The regular NAM maps show a lot more snow on Long Island.CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:deadrabbit79 wrote:SoulSingMG wrote:Frank_Wx wrote:Wow.....
Ummm is that a TWO and an EIGHT over me in Westchester?!
I THINK IT IS!!! I'm not sure if i'm excited or afraid!
Geez guys most of you in NYC, LI and NNJ saw a 27-34 inch storm last January. How quickly we forget.
I don't like them either. But I know people will ask so I post them anyway. They stink.
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Re: March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis
Difference between hi resolution models and regular:
They're run at higher resolutions so that their computations may resolve intricate details that the "regular" models can't reconcile as well. In theory, you should see the regular models depicting similar outputs, but the higher resolution models to better sniffing out granular details like exactly where mesoscale banding will set up.
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Re: March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis
gas check
milk check
bread check
liquor check
power outage screwed
does everyone have their 2017 Stella survival kit?
milk check
bread check
liquor check
power outage screwed
does everyone have their 2017 Stella survival kit?
RJB8525- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis
RJB8525 wrote:gas check
milk check
bread check
liquor check
power outage screwed
does everyone have their 2017 Stella survival kit?
Got all of the above sans Liquor. Will be stopping at the store to rectify that right after Frank's chat.
DAYBLAZER- Posts : 228
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Re: March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis
RJB8525 wrote:gas check
milk check
bread check
liquor check
power outage screwed
does everyone have their 2017 Stella survival kit?
Nutella?
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Re: March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis
I know I said I'm going quiet, but I just checked in. Can't stay away. The LP on the NAM is west of NYC. It's even west of Atlantic City when it is down in the Delmarva. This LP position means a SE fetch for most meaning mixing and rain for the coast. Look at it! Not model hugging here just common sense science.
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Re: March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis
That is why the regular nam totals were low but the other nams were good for the jersey cosst. Have asked a few times which name is better
track17- Posts : 454
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Re: March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis
Total snowfall of 18"- 28" is currently expected across Western and Central CT with lesser amounts near the southeast coast of 10” – 15”.
Deweydave- Posts : 12
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Re: March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis
These snowfall rates over the HV if they do come to fruition is why to Frank and Srocs argument some places could see up to 30 inches. 5 inch per hour rates even for 2-3 hours piles up pretty damn fast, just do the math. Hope it happens and I get to see it.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis
track17 wrote:That is why the regular nam totals were low but the other nams were good for the jersey cosst. Have asked a few times which name is better
Obviously, the PARA NAM, until it no longer gives us the best result...
SENJsnowman- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis
Lol that is what i hope butvwhat actually is
track17- Posts : 454
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Re: March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis
Shouldn't the hi-res nam / para nam /srfs be our primary models for the short ranger we're in?
emokid51783- Posts : 144
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Re: March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis
12z RGEM snow map
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Re: March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis
RGEM is 12-18 inches for NYC, then 18+ into NJ. Coastal plain and LI less.
WOW.
WOW.
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Re: March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis
Interesting man look at that dang cutoff. I know NW jersey is safe but I would really like to see everyone from NJ cash in.
Also looks to have moved heavy banding a bit East from previous models into NW jersey and Hudson valley.
Please once again excuse my ignorance but is RGEM considered a reliable model on the short term?
Also looks to have moved heavy banding a bit East from previous models into NW jersey and Hudson valley.
Please once again excuse my ignorance but is RGEM considered a reliable model on the short term?
DAYBLAZER- Posts : 228
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Re: March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis
Yes, RGEM is a reliable and good model at this time range. It's abundantly clear the surface low is going to track close to the coast, resulting in mix/rain and a dry slot early in the afternoon. Sucks for some, but interior may see a Frankzilla.
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Re: March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis
Wow so highest looks like on these runs is 24 to 28 in hi results wow.
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