NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis

+76
GNSnow
dphyatt
cooladi
meatsanwch
GreyBeard
Vinnydula
gambri
essexcountypete
petep1000
Sparky Sparticles
Ekhalikar
nujerzeedevil
Mathgod55
Quietace
gigs68
Deweydave
mmanisca
jake732
Dtone
Aiosamoney21
HEATMISER
jimv45
bloc1357
Nyi1058
aiannone
SENJsnowman
lglickman1
Sferra01
bobjohnsonforthehall
Bent79
sroc4
WeatherBob
2004blackwrx
pdubz
docstox12
Sanchize06
Armando Salvadore
mwilli5783
Artechmetals
SoulSingMG
Dunnzoo
RJB8525
DAYBLAZER
Snow88
skinsfan1177
devsman
hyde345
Math23x7
Grselig
larryrock72
Joe Snow
crippo84
CPcantmeasuresnow
amugs
frank 638
MeganHyjack
EnyapWeather
jmanley32
keliza52
oldtimer
SNOW MAN
nutleyblizzard
deadrabbit79
Radz
Mac003
rb924119
Scullybutcher
weatherwatchermom
billg315
jldio
mikeypizano
track17
dsix85
emokid51783
Taffy
Frank_Wx
80 posters

Page 19 of 33 Previous  1 ... 11 ... 18, 19, 20 ... 26 ... 33  Next

Go down

March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis - Page 19 Empty Re: March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis

Post by bobjohnsonforthehall Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:41 am

amugs wrote:4-6" SNOWFALL RATES IN PINKS ON THIS LIKE i WAS SAYING INSANE!!!!!!!

March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis - Page 19 Nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_26.thumb.jpg.3c114a49c967d667ad6e2fa194ea2df3

Is that even physically possible? 4-6" per hour? That is like a summer thunderstorm but with snow. You probably couldn't even breathe if you were standing in it. Which I just might try. Once in a lifetime!

bobjohnsonforthehall

Posts : 311
Join date : 2016-10-02

Back to top Go down

March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis - Page 19 Empty Re: March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis

Post by mikeypizano Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:41 am

RJB8525 wrote:The NAM has been staying consistent on this storm while others have flaked..

Toss it... no way its right with 38", must be feedback issues

mikeypizano
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1118
Join date : 2017-01-05

Back to top Go down

March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis - Page 19 Empty Re: March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis

Post by billg315 Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:43 am

I refer back to "Bill's Law of Coastal Storms" that I posted Saturday (and have referenced many times in the past): More often than not, unless there is some unusual atmospheric setup blocking the storm, these coastal storms want to accelerate and move more quickly than originally modeled. The 24-hour storm often becomes the 12-hour storm. I think the NAM solution of this thing racing up the coast is completely consistent with that experience. Therefore I am a bit skeptical of the higher-end snowfall totals. No question it is going to be heavy while its snowing, and 12 hours can do a lot of damage with 2-3" (or more) per hour rates. But I think the speed (and the potential for some sleet mixing at times in eastern NJ, immediate NYC area, LI) will suppress totals a bit. I think over a foot is a good bet for most areas. But I think areas that get 2 feet will be very isolated, and probably to my northwest.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 4438
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ

Back to top Go down

March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis - Page 19 Empty Re: March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis

Post by SENJsnowman Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:43 am

I declare today to be "Jersey Shore SnowLover Freak-Out Day". Tomorrow WILL BE a day to remember...either to rejoice or to mourn.

SENJsnowman
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1186
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2017-01-06
Age : 51
Location : Bayville, NJ

Back to top Go down

March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis - Page 19 Empty Re: March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis

Post by SoulSingMG Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:44 am

Jeff's excited... Very Happy

March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis - Page 19 Img_3515
SoulSingMG
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2853
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY

Back to top Go down

March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis - Page 19 Empty Re: March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis

Post by track17 Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:45 am

Senj so true like the nam para was great and nam 4k but regular nam not which is better?

track17

Posts : 454
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2016-01-09

Back to top Go down

March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis - Page 19 Empty Re: March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis

Post by Snow88 Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:45 am

Central LI looks to be the dividing line

Lets get another shift east
Snow88
Snow88
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2193
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 35
Location : Brooklyn, NY

Back to top Go down

March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis - Page 19 Empty Re: March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:46 am

deadrabbit79 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Wow.....

March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis - Page 19 Snku_acc.us_ne

Ummm is that a TWO and an EIGHT over me in Westchester?!

I THINK IT IS!!!  I'm not sure if i'm excited or afraid!

Geez guys most of you in NYC, LI and NNJ saw a 27-34 inch storm last January. How quickly we forget.
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7265
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 103
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis - Page 19 Empty Re: March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis

Post by mmanisca Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:47 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
deadrabbit79 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Wow.....

March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis - Page 19 Snku_acc.us_ne

Ummm is that a TWO and an EIGHT over me in Westchester?!

I THINK IT IS!!!  I'm not sure if i'm excited or afraid!

Geez guys most of you in NYC, LI and NNJ saw a 27-34 inch storm last January. How quickly we forget.
Frank Im confused my these Kuchero maps. I thought we weren't using them? The regular NAM maps show a lot more snow on Long Island.
mmanisca
mmanisca
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 298
Reputation : 3
Join date : 2013-01-23
Age : 65
Location : Deer Park, Long Island

Back to top Go down

March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis - Page 19 Empty Re: March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:49 am

mmanisca wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
deadrabbit79 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Wow.....

March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis - Page 19 Snku_acc.us_ne

Ummm is that a TWO and an EIGHT over me in Westchester?!

I THINK IT IS!!!  I'm not sure if i'm excited or afraid!

Geez guys most of you in NYC, LI and NNJ saw a 27-34 inch storm last January. How quickly we forget.
Frank Im confused my these Kuchero maps. I thought we weren't using them? The regular NAM maps show a lot more snow on Long Island.

I don't like them either. But I know people will ask so I post them anyway. They stink.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21301
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 31
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis - Page 19 Empty Re: March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:50 am

Difference between hi resolution models and regular:

They're run at higher resolutions so that their computations may resolve intricate details that the "regular" models can't reconcile as well. In theory, you should see the regular models depicting similar outputs, but the higher resolution models to better sniffing out granular details like exactly where mesoscale banding will set up.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21301
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 31
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis - Page 19 Empty Re: March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis

Post by RJB8525 Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:50 am

gas check
milk check
bread check
liquor check
power outage screwed

does everyone have their 2017 Stella survival kit?
RJB8525
RJB8525
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1994
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 38
Location : Hackettstown, NJ

Back to top Go down

March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis - Page 19 Empty Re: March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis

Post by DAYBLAZER Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:52 am

RJB8525 wrote:gas check
milk check
bread check
liquor check
power outage screwed

does everyone have their 2017 Stella survival kit?

Got all of the above sans Liquor. Will be stopping at the store to rectify that right after Frank's chat.
DAYBLAZER
DAYBLAZER

Posts : 228
Reputation : 20
Join date : 2017-03-12
Location : Hopatcong, NJ Sussex County

Back to top Go down

March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis - Page 19 Empty Re: March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:54 am

RJB8525 wrote:gas check
milk check
bread check
liquor check
power outage screwed

does everyone have their 2017 Stella survival kit?

Nutella?

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21301
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 31
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis - Page 19 Empty Re: March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis

Post by Guest Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:55 am

I know I said I'm going quiet, but I just checked in. Can't stay away. The LP on the NAM is west of NYC. It's even west of Atlantic City when it is down in the Delmarva. This LP position means a SE fetch for most meaning mixing and rain for the coast. Look at it! Not model hugging here just common sense science.

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis - Page 19 Empty Re: March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis

Post by track17 Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:58 am

That is why the regular nam totals were low but the other nams were good for the jersey cosst. Have asked a few times which name is better

track17

Posts : 454
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2016-01-09

Back to top Go down

March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis - Page 19 Empty Re: March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis

Post by Deweydave Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:59 am

Total snowfall of 18"- 28" is currently expected across Western and Central CT with lesser amounts near the southeast coast of 10” – 15”.

Deweydave

Posts : 12
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 57
Location : Danbury CT

Back to top Go down

March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis - Page 19 Empty Re: March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Mar 13, 2017 11:00 am

These snowfall rates over the HV if they do come to fruition is why to Frank and Srocs argument some places could see up to 30 inches. 5 inch per hour rates even for 2-3 hours piles up pretty damn fast, just do the math. Hope it happens and I get to see it.


March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis - Page 19 Imagep10
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7265
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 103
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis - Page 19 Empty Re: March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis

Post by SENJsnowman Mon Mar 13, 2017 11:02 am

track17 wrote:That is why the regular nam totals were low but the other nams were good for the jersey cosst. Have asked a few times which name is better

Obviously, the PARA NAM, until it no longer gives us the best result...

SENJsnowman
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1186
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2017-01-06
Age : 51
Location : Bayville, NJ

Back to top Go down

March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis - Page 19 Empty Re: March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis

Post by track17 Mon Mar 13, 2017 11:04 am

Lol that is what i hope butvwhat actually is

track17

Posts : 454
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2016-01-09

Back to top Go down

March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis - Page 19 Empty Re: March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis

Post by emokid51783 Mon Mar 13, 2017 11:04 am

Shouldn't the hi-res nam / para nam /srfs be our primary models for the short ranger we're in?

emokid51783

Posts : 144
Reputation : 5
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Jersey City Heights, NJ

Back to top Go down

March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis - Page 19 Empty Re: March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 13, 2017 11:05 am

12z RGEM snow map

March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis - Page 19 58c6b4f9cc121.thumb.png.0b465a6ec0f2d0e734481526ba243e3e

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21301
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 31
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis - Page 19 Empty Re: March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 13, 2017 11:07 am

RGEM is 12-18 inches for NYC, then 18+ into NJ. Coastal plain and LI less.

WOW.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21301
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 31
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis - Page 19 Empty Re: March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis

Post by DAYBLAZER Mon Mar 13, 2017 11:08 am

Interesting man look at that dang cutoff. I know NW jersey is safe but I would really like to see everyone from NJ cash in.

Also looks to have moved heavy banding a bit East from previous models into NW jersey and Hudson valley.

Please once again excuse my ignorance but is RGEM considered a reliable model on the short term?
DAYBLAZER
DAYBLAZER

Posts : 228
Reputation : 20
Join date : 2017-03-12
Location : Hopatcong, NJ Sussex County

Back to top Go down

March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis - Page 19 Empty Re: March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 13, 2017 11:10 am

Yes, RGEM is a reliable and good model at this time range. It's abundantly clear the surface low is going to track close to the coast, resulting in mix/rain and a dry slot early in the afternoon. Sucks for some, but interior may see a Frankzilla.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21301
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 31
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis - Page 19 Empty Re: March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis

Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 13, 2017 11:11 am

Wow so highest looks like on these runs is 24 to 28 in hi results wow.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis - Page 19 Empty Re: March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis

Post by jake732 Mon Mar 13, 2017 11:12 am

Frank, RGEM for jersey shore?
jake732
jake732
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 449
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2016-01-03
Location : lakewood, nj

http://www.lakewood732.com

Back to top Go down

March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis - Page 19 Empty Re: March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 19 of 33 Previous  1 ... 11 ... 18, 19, 20 ... 26 ... 33  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum